What is considered a "skyrocketing?" Bitcoin might give less returns overtime, but it still gave a pretty decent return last time, for a $1 trillion asset. It went up by around 8x. If something milder repeats, say 5x, it's still going at around $250k.
And maybe the whole cycle theory is finally invalidated in the next years. Gold, which is orders of magnitude more liquid than bitcoin, had a nice run in the last 20 years, and in 2025 it spiked like a memecoin. I can imagine a similar hyper-bull run for Bitcoin at some future year.
That’s the problem. First, Saylor’s model could succeed if the price of Bitcoin rises at least 5X, but it could also end up with the price falling 80% or 90% from its highs, retail STRC holders start panic selling, and as a result, the price goes to hell—for both STRC and MSTR. And if that happens, let’s see who’s brave enough to buy shares from Saylor again.
Since we’re using gold as a model, we have to remember that the price of gold didn’t hit a new high between 1980 and 2008 or so. Saylor’s model isn’t going to withstand that.
I believe the price of Bitcoin will continue to rise, but once it has matured to a certain extent, I can see the price going through a cycle or two without reaching new highs—and Saylor’s model won’t hold up to that.