Bitcoin prediction thread for July

[fullfitlarry]

I'm seeing that we might go down to $50k'ish for this month of July. The sentiments is still very much fearful and we are in the bear market. Plus, there are a lot of negative news like Saylor and Strategy might sell another stash to pay dividends of their company and others.

So I wouldn't be surprised that all of the sudden, this could be the worst month if the price goes down hard. But if others saw that as a perfect opportunity buy then go and purchase. Let's see how it goes, I'm mostly wrong with my prediction, but I will stick with my prediction for this month.

[Karl_3000]

I'm seeing that we might go down to $50k'ish for this month of July. The sentiments is still very much fearful and we are in the bear market. Plus, there are a lot of negative news like Saylor and Strategy might sell another stash to pay dividends of their company and others.

So I wouldn't be surprised that all of the sudden, this could be the worst month if the price goes down hard. But if others saw that as a perfect opportunity buy then go and purchase. Let's see how it goes, I'm mostly wrong with my prediction, but I will stick with my prediction for this month.

This month is positive already, there is bitcoin ETF inflow, only what that will happen now is that bitcoin need to cross above the middle BB band which it is not crossing since yesterday. There can be good news like this but if bitcoin did it cross that middle BB in the next 2 or 3 days, bitcoin price may fall back again. But if bitcoin cross it, it is not going to $70000 but stayed above $60000 this month.

[Dave1]

I'm seeing that we might go down to $50k'ish for this month of July. The sentiments is still very much fearful and we are in the bear market. Plus, there are a lot of negative news like Saylor and Strategy might sell another stash to pay dividends of their company and others.

So I wouldn't be surprised that all of the sudden, this could be the worst month if the price goes down hard. But if others saw that as a perfect opportunity buy then go and purchase. Let's see how it goes, I'm mostly wrong with my prediction, but I will stick with my prediction for this month.

This month is positive already, there is bitcoin ETF inflow, only what that will happen now is that bitcoin need to cross above the middle BB band which it is not crossing since yesterday. There can be good news like this but if bitcoin did it cross that middle BB in the next 2 or 3 days, bitcoin price may fall back again. But if bitcoin cross it, it is not going to $70000 but stayed above $60000 this month.

ETF inflow is not a good gauge to say that we are going to bounce back. They can manipulate the result of it as well so I don't look at it as something that can push the market higher. We still have the war in the background and then the US economy too.

And even if we have certain good news, the market is not going to react instantly. As we are in the bear market, negative news outweigh the positive. So I must say that we could still be in the same price with no uptake this month.

[Swordsoffreedom]

I'm seeing that we might go down to $50k'ish for this month of July. The sentiments is still very much fearful and we are in the bear market. Plus, there are a lot of negative news like Saylor and Strategy might sell another stash to pay dividends of their company and others.

So I wouldn't be surprised that all of the sudden, this could be the worst month if the price goes down hard. But if others saw that as a perfect opportunity buy then go and purchase. Let's see how it goes, I'm mostly wrong with my prediction, but I will stick with my prediction for this month.

This month is positive already, there is bitcoin ETF inflow, only what that will happen now is that bitcoin need to cross above the middle BB band which it is not crossing since yesterday. There can be good news like this but if bitcoin did it cross that middle BB in the next 2 or 3 days, bitcoin price may fall back again. But if bitcoin cross it, it is not going to $70000 but stayed above $60000 this month.

ETF inflow is not a good gauge to say that we are going to bounce back. They can manipulate the result of it as well so I don't look at it as something that can push the market higher. We still have the war in the background and then the US economy too.

And even if we have certain good news, the market is not going to react instantly. As we are in the bear market, negative news outweigh the positive. So I must say that we could still be in the same price with no uptake this month.

ETF flows are not the only signal for assessing the market's direction, but the shift to positive inflows is still something worth paying attention to. However, today is only the first day of positive net capital inflow, so this is not yet a reliable signal at this stage.

You are right. The market is still in a downtrend, so do not get overly optimistic just because of a few isolated pieces of positive news. That was still not enough to change the overall market trend.

I still believe Bitcoin will soon hit a new low instead of recovering.

[BALIK]

If I remember correctly, a few days ago BTC also dropped down to $58k and then recovered above $60k before setting a new low at $57,6k.

Bitcoin is a highly volatile asset and its price can rise or fall by 5%-10%, or even more in a single day. Therefore, it is too early to conclude that it will not fall to $60k or lower just because it recovered to $61k today.

As long as the bear market is not over, the possibility of Bitcoin falling to $55k or even below $50k will always remain.

You can see what happened when bitcoin fall below $60000, you can see how the whales are defending it back up above $60000. I know that bitcoin can fall further below $60000 but can it fall below $50000? That is what I think may not happen. I also think that there is still bear market, I can remember that some months will start good like this but end in the bear side.

No group of investors is defending Bitcoin to keep it above $60k. The market is always a battle between the bulls and the bears. If the bulls are strong enough, the price will move higher.  Conversely, if the bears remain in control, the price will continue to fall.

Let me ask you this. When Bitcoin was above $120k, did you ever think it would drop to $60k? Many people did not believe it could happen, yet Bitcoin has already touched $57k and there is no guarantee this is the bottom.

I do not know whether Bitcoin will fall to $50k. But as long as the bear market shows no signs of ending, I will never rule out that possibility.

[Zy_sat]

Bitcoin has been increasing above $60000 almost daily and getting back below $60000. What I meant is that what the price this month will end with. Because bitcoin increased above $60000 today does not mean it is not going to fall back. Using the 15 minute candles, it seems $60300 may be a support, but you know indicator analyses can be broken. Bitcoin is at $60300 right now, what if it falls back below $60000.

Bitcoin has a very nice way of surprising us and that is why it's the best in the crypto world especially when we feel the market will keep dropping you'd wake up one morning and see a different and positive amount. As of yesterday when I made a post here Bitcoin price was $60k but now we are seeing a different figure $61,900k which means is never over, Bitcoin price has a chance of getting back to $80k before the end of this month.

yeah, it is as expected right?
We’ve all known that Trump is having a conference stating for the market stock, there will be a shocking increasing rocket in the future, and now many investors in market stock starting to had a courage for invest more.

Same as this BTC, today its reach 61k even though last week we almost giving up on the dropped. It is funny that many people talking on BTC will not pass this cycle, as I believe we are starting to growth. Actually it is depends on your understanding and assumption on this BTC investment. For myself, this is still a good way to buy and hodl, nothing wrong with buying during this growth, still being considered with the income and free money you have to make your buying not a loss because you wisely having a good calculation on it.

[Danica22]

I still maintain the view that the four year cycle is repeating itself and we are entering the final phase of the bear market. Therefore, I predict and have voted that bitcoin will fall below $55k this month.

However, the market is inherently uncertain. The bear market may not end anytime soon, and Bitcoin may not have reached its bottom yet. But waiting for the price to drop to a certain level before buying is not a wise strategy. Therefore, instead of trying to catch the exact bottom, I think we should gradually accumulate as the price continues to decline.

[dwyane36]

Same as this BTC, today its reach 61k even though last week we almost giving up on the dropped. It is funny that many people talking on BTC will not pass this cycle, as I believe we are starting to growth. Actually it is depends on your understanding and assumption on this BTC investment. For myself, this is still a good way to buy and hodl, nothing wrong with buying during this growth, still being considered with the income and free money you have to make your buying not a loss because you wisely having a good calculation on it.

If you view BTC as a long-term investment, then of course you can buy it at the current price or at any other price. However, you shouldn’t get your hopes up too much about the current minor price rebound. What I mean is that the current rise is more likely just a correction before the next crash.

[Charles-Tim]

I still maintain the view that the four year cycle is repeating itself and we are entering the final phase of the bear market. Therefore, I predict and have voted that bitcoin will fall below $55k this month.

Maybe, but the price of bitcoin has been increasing and already showing as if it might get to $65000 or $66000. I think some people just want to take the price up and collect their profit just as I have posted on a thread not quite long ago. Maybe that could take the price down again, but for now I do not think the price of bitcoin will fall. Also ETF inflow is increasing.

[summonerrk]

Major banks and funds have revised their views on Bitcoin.
Citi has cut its Bitcoin forecast to $82,000. In the base case, expected inflows into crypto ETFs will drop from $10 billion to zero within 12 months.
Second decline in a year: in March, BTC was $143,000 to $112,000.
In the worst-case scenario, with a recession and continued outflows, Bitcoin will be $53,000.
Standard Chartered:
Turned into a constructive short-term outlook: a return to $100,000 by the end of 2026, near-term resistance at $75,000 and $85,000, the probability of a move to $20-30,000 is "close to zero," and the long-term target of $500,000 by 2030 remains.  Bernstein:
Keeps the $150,000 target for the end of the year and calls the current sluggish market "a boring cycle: retail has retreated into AI themes. BTC demand is now driven by institutions, and that makes the market healthier, not weaker."

[Danica22]

I still maintain the view that the four year cycle is repeating itself and we are entering the final phase of the bear market. Therefore, I predict and have voted that bitcoin will fall below $55k this month.

Maybe, but the price of bitcoin has been increasing and already showing as if it might get to $65000 or $66000. I think some people just want to take the price up and collect their profit just as I have posted on a thread not quite long ago. Maybe that could take the price down again, but for now I do not think the price of bitcoin will fall. Also ETF inflow is increasing.

Yes, Bitcoin could still rise to $65k or $70k this month instead of falling to $55k or creating a new bottom as I predicted. But that is still not enough to confirm that the bear market is over.

Do you remember what happened before Bitcoin set a new low at $57k in June? It had already rallied from $60k to $80k. That is how Bitcoin typically move during a bear market. It rarely falls straight to the bottom. Instead, it often stages strong rallies before continuing its downtrend and making a new low.

[crwth]

I still feel very bearish, and $60k might not be the best support for BTC right now.

For exchange inflows/outflows, there are signs they're going down. From what I have checked, it's moving out, and maybe those hales are trying to cash out with their current position.

Mostly, it's best to see how this mid-cycle show plays out after the halving. It might still be going down.

[hyudien]

Over the past two days, Bitcoin has returned to 60,000 after starting at 58,000 in July. However, this doesn't mean the bearish trend is over, there's still a possibility of a further decline below 60,000, or a possible drop below 55,000 by the end of the month. However, as a long-term holder, I'm not at all concerned, if it continues around that price for the next few months, I'll be happy.

[aoluain]

I still feel very bearish,...

Me too - and I dont think there is any debate now that the market is in fact in a Bear season.

I voted for the market between $55k and $60k. The options were very conservative really
and its clear that the big marker is $60k and how far the market drifts from that.

Like I said for June, July will be the same, pretty much sideways movement with highs and
lows about $5k either side of the 60.

[Tinubu]

Over the past two days, Bitcoin has returned to 60,000 after starting at 58,000 in July. However, this doesn't mean the bearish trend is over, there's still a possibility of a further decline below 60,000, or a possible drop below 55,000 by the end of the month. However, as a long-term holder, I'm not at all concerned, if it continues around that price for the next few months, I'll be happy.

The bearish trend will not end anytime soon. It will persist till next month, and to the end of the year. This year, bitcoin gave us a lot of opportunity to buy bitcoin not minding what the price is. By next year which I'm sure the price will start going back to 100k, there will be a lot of persons who will be regretting for not buying bitcoin this year. To be prepared is to be ready for the better days. Now is the time for preparation, with many taking a hold of this advantage.

[Yorubek]

Due to the volatility of Bitcoin, it is very difficult to accurately prediction the increase or decrease in price, but I expect something good from Bitcoin this month. Currently the price of Bitcoin is $62,863, we have see the increase in the price of Bitcoin since the beginning of this month, so I hope that a good change in the increase in the price of Bitcoin can be expected this month. Investors who patiently use every opportunity correctly and hold Bitcoin for a long time with confidence can enjoy all the benefits that Bitcoin brings in the future.

[BitMaxz]

We got another breakout to the upside of the downtrend with top-down analysis. I'm not convinced yet that this is a long-term bullish. There's another trend line between $64k and $65k on the on-chain data; there's big liquidity behind that level.

For now, we are slightly bullish, and let's see what will happen on Monday since we do not have much volume on weekends. The price is approaching the EMA200 in a 4-hour time frame and let's hope this is not just a bearish retracement.



Sorry for the messy chart; ignore my previous charting, as I use them to determine possible retracement levels using volume profile.

[LogitechMouse]

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We are now in another month, will bitcoin go back above $60000 or the support has finally be broken? Although, it has been broken. I do not post about bitcoin going below $50000 because I think bitcoin is not going there this month or what do you think?

I mean the price bitcoin will end this month with in the poll.

IMO, there's a big chance that we will go lower than $60,000 in the following weeks, but not this month.

July based on price history of Bitcoin is bullish, and you can just look at it on Coinglass, and I'm not expecting the same, but it could happen... or it could not as well. For this month, I will not be surprised if we will be seeing Bitcoin going sideways, but will not go below $60,000. In the following months though after this month, I expect a more bearish move towards the prices of $55,000 and eventually $50,000.

Bitcoin will not go to $50,000 this month, but it could be in the following months.

[yudi09]

I have no hesitation in predicting that the price will be above $60,000 in July. July marks the start of the second half of the year. It’s still a great opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin as an investment asset, though buying at any time is never a bad idea.

The price opened below $60,000—specifically, the chart shows it opened at $58,624—and has been slowly trending upward; as of today, it remains at $62,000.
In my opinion, it’s very likely that the price will stay above $60,000 over the course of this month.

[cyberninja2]

I have no hesitation in predicting that the price will be above $60,000 in July. July marks the start of the second half of the year. It’s still a great opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin as an investment asset, though buying at any time is never a bad idea.

The price opened below $60,000—specifically, the chart shows it opened at $58,624—and has been slowly trending upward; as of today, it remains at $62,000.
In my opinion, it’s very likely that the price will stay above $60,000 over the course of this month.

If it's true, as you say that it's the right thing for everyone to do if they have a stable income. Don't waste this opportunity especially since the price is still hovering around $60,000. It's still very feasible for us to buy or accumulate Bitcoin simply to increase our holdings. If the price increases as you suggest we might be among those who profit from accumulating when the price is at $60,000.

Currently, the charts are always changing whether as you describe or as predicted by those seeking to accumulate Bitcoin. So I don't think we should overthink the current market situation. Our task after observing it is to accumulate as much as we can afford. Market conditions aren't always in decline even though they have been trending downward for almost several months. We should use this decline as an opportunity to increase our holdings. When market conditions are up, we will certainly experience some profit and our Bitcoin holdings taking advantage of the downturn can increase from what we were previously accumulating.