BTC Sentiment Poll for July

[tokeweed]

^  That's the thing about sentiment.  When the price started going up from 60k to 64k, everybody started getting hopeful again and have started thinking that 70k or higher is a possibility...  But watch when it goes back to 60k again.  Everybody will start saying 50k as a possibility again. 

Anyway, locking the poll in a couple of days so get your votes in guys.  Really interested in how everybody feels about the market rn.

[sergiorus]

^  That's the thing about sentiment.  When the price started going up from 60k to 64k, everybody started getting hopeful again and have started thinking that 70k or higher is a possibility...  But watch when it goes back to 60k again.  Everybody will start saying 50k as a possibility again.  

Anyway, locking the poll in a couple of days so get your votes in guys.  Really interested in how everybody feels about the market rn.

Not seeing unusual or wrong with this summer chop and still not believing in 50k under any circumstances.

Maybe 55k at worst which would basically be a sweep of the 57,800 bottom but 50k would be 10% lower which is serious difference and, in my opinion, is not happening.

[laspol65]

^  That's the thing about sentiment.  When the price started going up from 60k to 64k, everybody started getting hopeful again and have started thinking that 70k or higher is a possibility...  But watch when it goes back to 60k again.  Everybody will start saying 50k as a possibility again. 

Anyway, locking the poll in a couple of days so get your votes in guys.  Really interested in how everybody feels about the market rn.

Bitcoin market research is very difficult, it is the opposite of what I predict. When the Bitcoin market rose and touched $64k, I predicted that it would touch the $70k level and that this level would be very strong. Bitcoin price has started to complete the rise again but it did not and it moved towards $60k again.
The Bitcoin market has been dumping and panicking people again, because this is the proof that the market is always fearful. No one can say for sure about this uncertain future, but by the end of July, Bitcoin price will definitely touch $70k or much higher.

[BitMaxz]

Bitcoin market research is very difficult, it is the opposite of what I predict. When the Bitcoin market rose and touched $64k, I predicted that it would touch the $70k level and that this level would be very strong. Bitcoin price has started to complete the rise again but it did not and it moved towards $60k again.
The Bitcoin market has been dumping and panicking people again, because this is the proof that the market is always fearful. No one can say for sure about this uncertain future, but by the end of July, Bitcoin price will definitely touch $70k or much higher.

Because you are analyzing the market in a short term that is why your prediction is expecting to go much further higher than $64k.
If you are checking the daily time frame, we are still bearish based on the structure and continued lower lows. My perspective will only be changed once the $82k level is broken. However, we already touched the bottom of the uptrend weekly time frame from 2023 to this month; this might be the bottom, but we are not sure yet until that trend is broken. The bearish momentum is getting weaker, but we are not sure yet if this is the last dip or not, but based on the current situation today, we are getting huge outflows and bad news nowadays that I think could lead to more drops later.

[yudi09]

Bitcoin market research is very difficult, it is the opposite of what I predict. When the Bitcoin market rose and touched $64k, I predicted that it would touch the $70k level and that this level would be very strong. Bitcoin price has started to complete the rise again but it did not and it moved towards $60k again.
The Bitcoin market has been dumping and panicking people again, because this is the proof that the market is always fearful. No one can say for sure about this uncertain future, but by the end of July, Bitcoin price will definitely touch $70k or much higher.

Traders who frequently encounter such situations—especially those making long-term investments—don’t pay much attention to market prices because their actions are driven by clear price recovery targets.
Predicting Bitcoin’s market price is indeed difficult, and no research has shown that it’s easy to set short-term targets. It’s not uncommon for people who choose Bitcoin as a long-term investment to be successful. They prefer to focus on other things rather than worry about short-term market fluctuations.

[bangjoe]

^  That's the thing about sentiment.  When the price started going up from 60k to 64k, everybody started getting hopeful again and have started thinking that 70k or higher is a possibility...  But watch when it goes back to 60k again.  Everybody will start saying 50k as a possibility again. 

Anyway, locking the poll in a couple of days so get your votes in guys.  Really interested in how everybody feels about the market rn.

This is indeed the habit of speculators when reaping hopes and fears from market movements, he will say his expectations are both up and down in bitcoin price movements, but in fact what happens we are in a state of sineways at this price level, we just assume $65-$58k we just move, throughout this month will not be too far away it seems.
I wish it was deeper so we could pump more but there will definitely be more people disappointed especially from the big companies investing bitcoin will be below its average purchase price which will make it chaotic, but we do need that to refresh the market.

[STT]

The knock back from the ceiling or resistance has us lower but its seen that same level as a kerb about 7 times in 10 days.  I'm not especially thinking it must be negative this time other the prior instances.   I'd like BTC to trade about 60.8k and probably recover from there for the rest of July.
   This time the 50 day average has fallen enough to reinforce the resistance with an indicator or added negative momentum to the price action.  Its a bigger battle presumably in perceptionbut I dont accept a loss is any more likely only that fears are more evident.

[cyberninja2]

This is indeed the habit of speculators when reaping hopes and fears from market movements, he will say his expectations are both up and down in bitcoin price movements, but in fact what happens we are in a state of sineways at this price level, we just assume $65-$58k we just move, throughout this month will not be too far away it seems.
I wish it was deeper so we could pump more but there will definitely be more people disappointed especially from the big companies investing bitcoin will be below its average purchase price which will make it chaotic, but we do need that to refresh the market.

It is also good for all parties if the price is still in a decline because the right time for all parties is to make purchases when the price is still at a figure that is still profitable for the party to make purchases with the aim of continuing to add to our future assets even if only in the form of the number of Bitcoins that are our assets but it is one of the best ways to pump ourselves in terms of being more certain in collecting the number of BTCs that are the best purchases in having assets for our future as parties who always choose to do either in a price decline or an increase which is clearly a very appropriate step to not become our disappointment in investing in Bitcoin even though we sometimes accumulate a lot when the market price is still much higher than the current price but this is a bonus for parties who previously sometimes bought when the price was still at a higher number than now.

[coinrifft]

Bitcoin market research is very difficult, it is the opposite of what I predict. When the Bitcoin market rose and touched $64k, I predicted that it would touch the $70k level and that this level would be very strong. Bitcoin price has started to complete the rise again but it did not and it moved towards $60k again.
The Bitcoin market has been dumping and panicking people again, because this is the proof that the market is always fearful. No one can say for sure about this uncertain future, but by the end of July, Bitcoin price will definitely touch $70k or much higher.

That's why it's hard to predict price movement, although there is TA, but it's not a exact math itself as it just drawing lines and then uses some numbers to see where the price could be in the next couple of hours.

But if we have been here for so long, we might just ignore all the signals and just continue to buy as much as we can. At least with that kind of mindset, we are looking in the future and so our mentality is different. As the longer we stay, the higher the chance that we will make a lot of profits.

[ultrloa]

Bitcoin market research is very difficult, it is the opposite of what I predict. When the Bitcoin market rose and touched $64k, I predicted that it would touch the $70k level and that this level would be very strong. Bitcoin price has started to complete the rise again but it did not and it moved towards $60k again.
The Bitcoin market has been dumping and panicking people again, because this is the proof that the market is always fearful. No one can say for sure about this uncertain future, but by the end of July, Bitcoin price will definitely touch $70k or much higher.

That's why it's hard to predict price movement, although there is TA, but it's not a exact math itself as it just drawing lines and then uses some numbers to see where the price could be in the next couple of hours.

But if we have been here for so long, we might just ignore all the signals and just continue to buy as much as we can. At least with that kind of mindset, we are looking in the future and so our mentality is different. As the longer we stay, the higher the chance that we will make a lot of profits.

Well its helpful if you have knowledge on how to do TA, but as what you have said it never gives guarantee. Because market move according to what people like to happen. This is why many people lose doing short term trade even if they manage to analyze the market so well. Market is so unpredictable and this is most hardest part that people need to deal with.

This is also the reason many people stop giving stress by following the market trend and choose to think long term on their bough Bitcoin, because this is much easier to deal on and less stress option to do. But well let see on how far Bitcoin could go for this year. Although many uncertainty happens but I'm still positive that we can still see more higher prices to come on Bitcoin.

[tokeweed]

^  That's the thing about sentiment.  When the price started going up from 60k to 64k, everybody started getting hopeful again and have started thinking that 70k or higher is a possibility...  But watch when it goes back to 60k again.  Everybody will start saying 50k as a possibility again.  

Anyway, locking the poll in a couple of days so get your votes in guys.  Really interested in how everybody feels about the market rn.

Not seeing unusual or wrong with this summer chop and still not believing in 50k under any circumstances.

Maybe 55k at worst which would basically be a sweep of the 57,800 bottom but 50k would be 10% lower which is serious difference and, in my opinion, is not happening.

Just expect the unexpected and know what to do when something unexpected does happen.    A drop to 50k - 55k range would be juicy spot to buy imho.  And anything lower than that would be a good time to back up the truck and buy with any dry powder you have left.

This year I think there are only two coins that's worth buying...  BTC and HYPE.  The rest doesn't really give me much confidence.

[sergiorus]

^  That's the thing about sentiment.  When the price started going up from 60k to 64k, everybody started getting hopeful again and have started thinking that 70k or higher is a possibility...  But watch when it goes back to 60k again.  Everybody will start saying 50k as a possibility again.  

Anyway, locking the poll in a couple of days so get your votes in guys.  Really interested in how everybody feels about the market rn.

Not seeing unusual or wrong with this summer chop and still not believing in 50k under any circumstances.

Maybe 55k at worst which would basically be a sweep of the 57,800 bottom but 50k would be 10% lower which is serious difference and, in my opinion, is not happening.

This year I think there are only two coins that's worth buying...  BTC and HYPE.  The rest doesn't really give me much confidence.

Imho, HYPE now = LINK in summer 2020. It similarly performed incredibly well during a bear market but had little room to grow during bull (only pulled like 2x from summer 2020 highs to peak euphoria in 2021 whilst everything else did 10-20x).

Now many juicy coins' charts are destroyed and have insane room even for a relief rally: LINK, OKB, UNI, AAVE to name a few.

[pawel7777]

The price action looks pretty bullish for Bitcoin, and it's even better for many of the altcoins. The altcoin season indicator: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/altcoin-season-index/ points right in the middle, meaning half of the top 100 altcoins performed better than Bitcoin over the last 90 days.

But if we take a peek at the long-term trend and the past year patterns, it definitely looks like we are still not quite close to the bottom:



In the midterm years (years after the halving years) we would see an average of 65% decline at the end of the calendar year, as compared to the price as at 1 January. We are currently only 26% down, so if the pattern is to repeat itself again, we should see some more drops as we progress through the year.

[tokeweed]

^  Yup, it's looking pretty bullish.  I guess the guys who are hopeful for a pump have gotten even more hopeful that it's gonna go higher than where it is right now.  And one thing crypto thrives in is momentum...  So I wouldn't be surprised if August will see the trend up continue.  Granting that the trend up now goes on until the end of July...

*Fingers crossed* 

[pawel7777]

^  Yup, it's looking pretty bullish.  I guess the guys who are hopeful for a pump have gotten even more hopeful that it's gonna go higher than where it is right now.  And one thing crypto thrives in is momentum...  So I wouldn't be surprised if August will see the trend up continue.  Granting that the trend up now goes on until the end of July...
(...)

The guys who are hoping for a pump are likely those who missed their shot and didn't sell during the bull market 
Those who sold near the peak are more likely to be hoping for further drops so they can buy back cheaper.

But yeah, with the current +12.51% from the beginning of the month, this is the best July since 2022 and the best month since April last year. I don't have high hopes for August though. If the trend continues till the end of the month, the opening price for August will be set pretty high, and August is historically the worst month, with a median return of -7.49% per Coinglass.

[sergiorus]

The price action looks pretty bullish for Bitcoin, and it's even better for many of the altcoins. The altcoin season indicator: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/altcoin-season-index/ points right in the middle, meaning half of the top 100 altcoins performed better than Bitcoin over the last 90 days.

But if we take a peek at the long-term trend and the past year patterns, it definitely looks like we are still not quite close to the bottom:



In the midterm years (years after the halving years) we would see an average of 65% decline at the end of the calendar year, as compared to the price as at 1 January. We are currently only 26% down, so if the pattern is to repeat itself again, we should see some more drops as we progress through the year.

High base effect. Misleading comparison. Bitcoin didn't grow anywhere as much last cycle as it did before (not even 100% from the previous ATH).

It's the same as after a year of outstandingly high inflation you may end up having deflation on Y/Y stats the next year. Because the base from which you count was abnormally high.

Speaking in the same analogy, there wasn't any significant "inflation" for Bitcoin last year, we shouldn't expect the same "deflation" as after the years with exploding growth.

[tokeweed]

^  Yup, it's looking pretty bullish.  I guess the guys who are hopeful for a pump have gotten even more hopeful that it's gonna go higher than where it is right now.  And one thing crypto thrives in is momentum...  So I wouldn't be surprised if August will see the trend up continue.  Granting that the trend up now goes on until the end of July...
(...)

The guys who are hoping for a pump are likely those who missed their shot and didn't sell during the bull market 
Those who sold near the peak are more likely to be hoping for further drops so they can buy back cheaper.

But yeah, with the current +12.51% from the beginning of the month, this is the best July since 2022 and the best month since April last year. I don't have high hopes for August though. If the trend continues till the end of the month, the opening price for August will be set pretty high, and August is historically the worst month, with a median return of -7.49% per Coinglass.

Mmmmm, maybe you're right but that's not really the purpose of the poll.  I'll explain the thought process behind it at the end of the year as I'll be using the same poll from July to maybe November...    I already have an idea what to do for December and it's something related to the current poll. 

It would be nice if more people participated in these monthly polls and a more accurate read in what the sentiment is like here at BCT.

[coinrifft]

^^ I guess though base on the results that majority still hope that there will be a pump. Unfortunately, the price seems to be in the middle ground. No pump, but no downward thread as well. If there is a downward trend, it's not as deep as it looks like.

And barely weeks before the end of the month, it might be good indication that the market is in the middle. Unless there is a black swan event that will pull the price to it's bottom. We've heard about the case of Arthur's Hayes BitMex shutting down, but it's very different case when it's voluntary stopping it's operation as compare to FTX's collapsed because of mismanagement.

[tokeweed]

^  Yeah hopefully we don't get another FTX and that the price range we're seeing on the board is now the bottom...  I'd like to be bullish but something tells me to wait a while more as BTC is prolly not out of the woods yet.

But yeah...  When the bulls come back I'm planning to hold just three coins.  BTC, HYPE and XMR.  And maybe some trade.xyz tokens if they airdrop.  Lolol.  Still hopeful on that one too but the longer it goes, I don't think they'll airdrop.

[As-Soon-As]

^  Yeah hopefully we don't get another FTX and that the price range we're seeing on the board is now the bottom...  I'd like to be bullish but something tells me to wait a while more as BTC is prolly not out of the woods yet.

After the collapse of FTX, the Bitcoin market went into a tailspin and many people panicked. But this year there is no possibility yet and I don't think there will be such a big fall in Bitcoin again. In this situation, the price of Bitcoin will improve but after some time, but I think we will see some improvement in the price of Bitcoin in August next month.
But the possibility of Bitcoin breaking the $60k level is very low.

But yeah...  When the bulls come back I'm planning to hold just three coins.  BTC, HYPE and XMR.  And maybe some trade.xyz tokens if they airdrop.  Lolol.  Still hopeful on that one too but the longer it goes, I don't think they'll airdrop.

In this situation, I will not invest in any Shitcoin, because I lost money on my investment a few months ago. So, you can use the same amount of money you use in Shitcoin to invest in Bitcoin. This will increase your chances of making a profit.