BRICS - problems and forecasts

[DrBeer]

A year ago, the BRICS camp made statements, many and often, loud and powerful ! From the alternative of almost world economy, to their own currency and total dedollarization.... But very soon this wave of "euphoria and statements came to naught.

In my opinion, the problems of BRICS lie in the lack of an institutional structure, geopolitical disagreements among the participants and difficulties with the transition to national currencies. The lull periods are due to the fact that loud political statements have turned into a long process of harmonization, where no finalization of this procedure is in sight.
 
Four main problems can be distinguished:
- Internal conflicts: There are political tensions between members (e.g., historical rivalry between China and India, disagreements over expanding the list of partner countries)
- Difficulties of de-dollarization: It is impossible to completely abandon the dollar, as economies are highly dependent on trade with the West and dominant world reserves. Settlement in national currencies (Rupees, Yuan, Real) is slow due to trade imbalances
- Different economic structure: The bloc includes states with very different levels of development, investment base and technological potential
- Lack of a single center: Unlike the European Union or the G7, BRICS does not have a rigid charter, a permanent secretariat, or its own supranational currency

What do you think ? Your thoughts ?

[WillyAp]

The main reason to be in BRICS is the opposition to the $ and what it represents.
 The main reason countries don't like the US$ is the accountability coming with it.

Governments see inflation as a tool to smoother the effects on their faulty behavior.
The solution to a total dependence on the $ you could have 2 tenders, the Euro or Yen and the Dollar.
Currencies wildly accepted help a country, their businesses and their people.

But you won't have sovereignty about your currency and cannot print more to smoother an ill behavior.
Politician view printing money as a legit tool, the Romans started it 2000 year ago, when sing their coins those coins had 98% pure silver. The Denarius.

Over time, the Romans changed the silver percentage in their coins, starting around 93% and later raising it to about 98%.

Source: https://roman-empire.net/society/inflation-and-the-fall-of-rome

and

When Marcus Aurelius came to power in 161 AD, the coin’s silver content was down to around 3.4g, 75% of its original value. Just over 80 years later, in 244 AD, it was less than half of its original value at 45%. From there things began to pick up pace and a decade later it was down to 5%.

This was the beginning of the end for the Roman currency. Another decade later and in 265 AD the coin’s purity was at 0.5%. Each coin was made of mostly bronze with only the thinnest coating of silver. Prices had also soared by over 1000%.

source https://www.ancient-origins.net/history-important-events/roman-inflation-0018443

[Alpha Marine]

I have never taken the BRICS alliance seriously, not because I am a fan of the US, but because they don't have a solid structure.
They present themselves as simply being different from the US, but they don't have a common goal. They all have their own selfish interest, and they are still.
Funny enough, most of the countries are in business with the US. They are not allies, but they are not rivals or enemies.

Governments see inflation as a tool to smoother the effects on their faulty behavior.
The solution to a total dependence on the $ you could have 2 tenders, the Euro or Yen and the Dollar.
Currencies wildly accepted help a country, their businesses and their people.

But you won't have sovereignty about your currency and cannot print more to smoother an ill behavior.
Politician view printing money as a legit tool, the Romans started it 2000 year ago, when sing their coins those coins had 98% pure silver. The Denarius.

You don't create a better currency than the dollar by simply making decrees or pointing out the flaws of the currency. You do so by putting in the work. The work is to create a better and more stable currency and show that transactions will be better if they dump the dollar and use the new currency.
The BRICS countries have not done that. All they have managed to do is convince people that they should not use the dollar anymore, so what currency should they use instead that would make doing business better?

[stompix]

Four main problems can be distinguished:
- Internal conflicts: There are political tensions between members (e.g., historical rivalry between China and India, disagreements over expanding the list of partner countries)

I love this "union" of countries that come together just because they hate other countries!

Imagine the collaboration between those countries
- Russia and China, collaboration on paper, in reality, each one fears the other, they try to bury the hatchet for propaganda reasons but still have territorial disputes scars that will never heal
- China and India, like lol, any time soon best allies in the world
- Iran and UAE, yup close allies, they are just bombing the shit right now
- Ethiopia and Egypt, two countries that couldn't get along for a dam, they will have similar economic views, yeah right

But I want to see most is the Iranian delegation paying a visit to Brazil during the Rio festival!
The cultural exchange will be wholesome! 

[Fortify]

A year ago, the BRICS camp made statements, many and often, loud and powerful ! From the alternative of almost world economy, to their own currency and total dedollarization.... But very soon this wave of "euphoria and statements came to naught.

In my opinion, the problems of BRICS lie in the lack of an institutional structure, geopolitical disagreements among the participants and difficulties with the transition to national currencies. The lull periods are due to the fact that loud political statements have turned into a long process of harmonization, where no finalization of this procedure is in sight.
 
Four main problems can be distinguished:
- Internal conflicts: There are political tensions between members (e.g., historical rivalry between China and India, disagreements over expanding the list of partner countries)
- Difficulties of de-dollarization: It is impossible to completely abandon the dollar, as economies are highly dependent on trade with the West and dominant world reserves. Settlement in national currencies (Rupees, Yuan, Real) is slow due to trade imbalances
- Different economic structure: The bloc includes states with very different levels of development, investment base and technological potential
- Lack of a single center: Unlike the European Union or the G7, BRICS does not have a rigid charter, a permanent secretariat, or its own supranational currency

What do you think ? Your thoughts ?

The idea that these are some exclusive or even close trading bloc is a bit dumb. It was basically just a catchphrase made up by a journalist as a counter point to the power of "the west". Russia is an economic basketcase, Brazil doesn't have anything special apart from being a fairly large population and South Africa continues to disintegrate further each year. India and China may trade together but there is little trust there beyond that, they are actually quite big rivals. India and China are probably the only two countries in that "group" which have actually been successful, but China much more so than India. The cost of a life in these countries was quite low however and that contributed a large part of their rise.

[WillyAp]

You don't create a better currency than the dollar by simply making decrees or pointing out the flaws of the currency. You do so by putting in the work. The work is to create a better and more stable currency and show that transactions will be better if they dump the dollar and use the new currency.

Yeah that is the plan of many but so far only a few have done it.
A handful and all rest are using their tools, i.e. inflation, printing money.

[Mhizlove]

In addition, I will say another challenge is that each BRICS country has its own economic and political priorities, so for them getting one common position isn't always easy. Even though they all agree that they want to reduce dependency on n the US dollar, the approach and speed which each country prefers can vary or different. For that reason, progress can seems or looks slow but building a stronger economic alliance requires alot of long term commitments, trust and coordination, so you see it's not just something that happens all of a sudden.

[DrBeer]

The main reason to be in BRICS is the opposition to the $ and what it represents.
 The main reason countries don't like the US$ is the accountability coming with it.

Governments see inflation as a tool to smoother the effects on their faulty behavior.
The solution to a total dependence on the $ you could have 2 tenders, the Euro or Yen and the Dollar.
Currencies wildly accepted help a country, their businesses and their people.

But you won't have sovereignty about your currency and cannot print more to smoother an ill behavior.
Politician view printing money as a legit tool, the Romans started it 2000 year ago, when sing their coins those coins had 98% pure silver. The Denarius.

Over time, the Romans changed the silver percentage in their coins, starting around 93% and later raising it to about 98%.

Source: https://roman-empire.net/society/inflation-and-the-fall-of-rome

and

When Marcus Aurelius came to power in 161 AD, the coin’s silver content was down to around 3.4g, 75% of its original value. Just over 80 years later, in 244 AD, it was less than half of its original value at 45%. From there things began to pick up pace and a decade later it was down to 5%.

This was the beginning of the end for the Roman currency. Another decade later and in 265 AD the coin’s purity was at 0.5%. Each coin was made of mostly bronze with only the thinnest coating of silver. Prices had also soared by over 1000%.

source https://www.ancient-origins.net/history-important-events/roman-inflation-0018443

The associated liability is not an unambiguous indicator. On the one hand, yes the US can block any dollar accounts. But let's also be honest - it is not done just like that !
On the other hand, the responsibility of the US government and economy gives what everyone likes - stability (in relation to other currencies), absolute liquidity, high demand anywhere in the world.  The third side is envy that they could not be smarter and more cunning than the USA and did not make their currency the world reserve currency

I know about denarii, because I am fond of numismatics, and I have a huge collection of denarii!

[DrBeer]

I have never taken the BRICS alliance seriously, not because I am a fan of the US, but because they don't have a solid structure.
They present themselves as simply being different from the US, but they don't have a common goal. They all have their own selfish interest, and they are still.
Funny enough, most of the countries are in business with the US. They are not allies, but they are not rivals or enemies.

Governments see inflation as a tool to smoother the effects on their faulty behavior.
The solution to a total dependence on the $ you could have 2 tenders, the Euro or Yen and the Dollar.
Currencies wildly accepted help a country, their businesses and their people.

But you won't have sovereignty about your currency and cannot print more to smoother an ill behavior.
Politician view printing money as a legit tool, the Romans started it 2000 year ago, when sing their coins those coins had 98% pure silver. The Denarius.

You don't create a better currency than the dollar by simply making decrees or pointing out the flaws of the currency. You do so by putting in the work. The work is to create a better and more stable currency and show that transactions will be better if they dump the dollar and use the new currency.
The BRICS countries have not done that. All they have managed to do is convince people that they should not use the dollar anymore, so what currency should they use instead that would make doing business better?

I absolutely agree that some of the BRICS members are there not for the union, but for unipolar benefit. China wanted to make the yuan a “BRICS dollar”, Russia and Iran, it's more about propaganda and shouting “the collapse of the United States” on every corner....
In a word - absolutely different goals, which do not strengthen the union, but divide it.

It is possible to make a currency better than the dollar, and it is simple: just make a country with a more powerful economy, science, strong politics including on the world stage, army, technology, ....
Then figure out a way to easily replace the dolar as the basis for mutual settlements around the world, with deep integration into the banking and financial system of the world, and it's done !
Some “fighters against the dollar”, decided that it is enough to name their currency as a replacement for the dollar, and everyone will switch to it, abandoning the dollar - and this best describes their mental abilities

[DiMarxist]

You raised a very serious issue here, but I tend to disagree with you. This is because sometimes things are not always the same way that it seems to look and from the allegations about the non functional Way of the BRICS block ever since it emergence. Sometimes some things look deeper than we think as far as I know, BRICS as an organization is active working, with all these war going on right left and centre don't be too surprised if we see more members by there next meeting. The BRICS organization is working behind the scenes that is why America and all their allies are very weary of countries that are having affiliations with the likes of Russia, China and North Korea.

[WillyAp]

It is possible to make a currency better than the dollar, and it is simple: just make a country with a more powerful economy, science, strong politics including on the world stage, army, technology, ....
Then figure out a way to easily replace the dolar as the basis for mutual settlements around the world, with deep integration into the banking and financial system of the world, and it's done !

hehehe hilarious how easy that is, lets start right away or better tomorrow? 

[o48o]

-cut-
What do you think ? Your thoughts ?

Nations that others don't want to work with because they can't be trusted can't work together, because that would require trust and transparency from each party. Color me surprised.

I knew this was the result, but i wouldn't brag with that, because it was obvious and only possible result.

Still, i see dedollarisation more and more likely if team MAGA manages to derail USA even more towards theocratic fascism. There will be other, more reliable trade partners for the rest of us.

[rat03gopoh]

The alliance seems like a joke to me. The primary reason countries join is mission of dedollarization, and maybe that is the extent of their hopes for benefit (though I don't see it working yet). Beyond that, I don't know if the alliance has ever been a geopolitical tool or truly possessed the power to govern its members.

[Dogedegen]

A year ago, the BRICS camp made statements, many and often, loud and powerful ! From the alternative of almost world economy, to their own currency and total dedollarization.... But very soon this wave of "euphoria and statements came to naught.

In my opinion, the problems of BRICS lie in the lack of an institutional structure, geopolitical disagreements among the participants and difficulties with the transition to national currencies. The lull periods are due to the fact that loud political statements have turned into a long process of harmonization, where no finalization of this procedure is in sight.
 
Four main problems can be distinguished:
- Internal conflicts: There are political tensions between members (e.g., historical rivalry between China and India, disagreements over expanding the list of partner countries)
- Difficulties of de-dollarization: It is impossible to completely abandon the dollar, as economies are highly dependent on trade with the West and dominant world reserves. Settlement in national currencies (Rupees, Yuan, Real) is slow due to trade imbalances
- Different economic structure: The bloc includes states with very different levels of development, investment base and technological potential
- Lack of a single center: Unlike the European Union or the G7, BRICS does not have a rigid charter, a permanent secretariat, or its own supranational currency

What do you think ? Your thoughts ?

I am very skeptical of this alliance or any similar attempts at creating an alliance. We have seen too many political public statements are not enough action. They wanted to expand the member list without even having a very functional alliance. Sure they are doing some things together overall it is very tiny and nothing close to the European Union or G7. They are simply not executing concrete steps that are needed to make this actually into a functioning thing regardless of their differences. If there is a strong will and good work, solutions to differences can be found but this is not something that we see here. We can take the example of the settlement in national currencies. You are right to state that it is difficult to trade that way because of trade imbalances, and one way to get past that would be to introduce a joint currency for BRICS. This does not mean abandonment of national currencies, but more like an addition. With that at least each country would always receive a currency in which they can pay every other BRICS member. It is not as good as using the dollar but it is much better than being limited to single currencies.

But still they don't even trust each other enough to actually do that. Also I think they have been a bit more silent in recent times again, am I right?

Imagine the collaboration between those countries
- Russia and China, collaboration on paper, in reality, each one fears the other, they try to bury the hatchet for propaganda reasons but still have territorial disputes scars that will never heal

I don't think this is a big argument on its own in the topic that we are talking about, many countries in the European Union have historical or current territorial disputes and yet they have managed to find a way to get past that and still work together in a strong way. It is not like all the countries in the European Union are big friends, yet they can still cooperate.

[shinratensei_]

The dedollarization don't work and the countries inside BRICS are clashing with each other. It's hard to think this alliance will go somewhere when you take that into account.It's been few years since BRICS founded, dollar still standing strong even asserting its sheer dominance on the international trades.
Just look at US short term bond yields, it's gradually strengthening despite China dumping it when tariffs happened. USD is not going anywhere.

[Coyster]

Bricks as an organization is active working with all these war going on right left and centre don't be too surprised if we see more members by there next meeting.

I don't know what you mean by "...is active working with all these war going on...", it doesn't make much sense to me. But, as for new member countries joining the alliance, it is very possible, though that is not the subject of discussion. It is about how effective an organization it is and how much of their goals have been achieved, and we can agree that it is not much.

BRICS also has non-member countries, like Nigeria, Algeria, etc. And also aspiring countries, like Argentina and Venezuela. So, expanding the bloc is possible, but that is inconsequential if internal rifts and national differences is a barrier to achieving their goals.

[DrBeer]

In addition, I will say another challenge is that each BRICS country has its own economic and political priorities, so for them getting one common position isn't always easy. Even though they all agree that they want to reduce dependency on n the US dollar, the approach and speed which each country prefers can vary or different. For that reason, progress can seems or looks slow but building a stronger economic alliance requires alot of long term commitments, trust and coordination, so you see it's not just something that happens all of a sudden.

There is a good example - the EU. Countries with very different economic levels, different cultures, traditions, and even interests. The only nuance is a rather close geographical location. But by the way, they also had the idea of "dedollarization". And they succeeded! Not 100% perfect, but quite effective, if we compare it with BRICS attempts.
 
The question is why did the EU succeed? There must be some other differences ?
I for example think that one of the key reasons is the attempts of some participants to politicize the union, and make it not according to the principle "let's be friends for our benefit within the union", but according to the principle "et's be friends against others, and try to create problems for them".

[Dogedegen]

In addition, I will say another challenge is that each BRICS country has its own economic and political priorities, so for them getting one common position isn't always easy. Even though they all agree that they want to reduce dependency on n the US dollar, the approach and speed which each country prefers can vary or different. For that reason, progress can seems or looks slow but building a stronger economic alliance requires alot of long term commitments, trust and coordination, so you see it's not just something that happens all of a sudden.

There is a good example - the EU. Countries with very different economic levels, different cultures, traditions, and even interests. The only nuance is a rather close geographical location. But by the way, they also had the idea of "dedollarization". And they succeeded! Not 100% perfect, but quite effective, if we compare it with BRICS attempts.
 
The question is why did the EU succeed? There must be some other differences ?
I for example think that one of the key reasons is the attempts of some participants to politicize the union, and make it not according to the principle "let's be friends for our benefit within the union", but according to the principle "et's be friends against others, and try to create problems for them".

I think you are asking a very complex question and are trying to answer it in a very simple way so that can't be correct because very often complex questions have very complex answers. What would we define even as success for this? Working Union and success of dedollarization, working compared to BRICS? You are aware that there are hundreds and thousands of different issues with the EU on various levels? You have it on different levels such as the fight between who retains which competencies and the attempts to turn the EU into a federation so the weakening of the sovereignty of individuals, or too extreme bureaucracy that enables corruption only to those that are the most connected and everything in between. If you compare BRICS to EU, then the EU is great but that is not because it is a paradise and a case example of pure success it is more because BRICS is still mostly a complete failure. 

[stompix]

as far as I know, Bricks as an organization is active working with all these war going on right left and centre don't be too surprised if we see more members by there next meeting.

You mean they are looking at how two members are currently at war with each other and lobbying bombs and rockets at the other?

The bricks organization is working behind the scenes

Probably, they are very well hidden in the dark as nobody knows of them.
You do realize it's BRICS, not BRICKS...and unfortunately, people that can't even spell right the name of an organization in 5 tries are probably the last that actually know a thing or two about said thing.

that is why America and all their allies are very weary of countries that are having affiliations with the likes of Russia, China and North Korea.

Oh yeah, or maybe because most of the countries that are making up BRICS right now have territorial disputes and are threatening to invade their neighbours?
Russia > Ukraine
China > Taiwan
North Korea > South Korea
India > Pakistan
How about this angle?

Imagine the collaboration between those countries
- Russia and China, collaboration on paper, in reality, each one fears the other, they try to bury the hatchet for propaganda reasons but still have territorial disputes scars that will never heal

I don't think this is a big argument on its own in the topic that we are talking about, many countries in the European Union have historical or current territorial disputes and yet they have managed to find a way to get past that and still work together in a strong way. It is not like all the countries in the European Union are big friends, yet they can still cooperate.

Yeah, except that in China they still have continuous propaganda about the century of humiliation and about their territorial disputes.
When was the last time you read in a German manual that Alsace is part of Germany?

[WillyAp]

When was the last time you read in a German manual that Alsace is part of Germany?

History is used as a tool for manipulation.
Throughout a lot of societies.