Bitcoin's impact on which country in the next four years

[Smartprofit]

I think this is a very interesting topic! In fact, we have a practical example from the scientific discipline of game theory. Moreover, this game is being played on a global scale. I don't really like the word "geopolitics" (too many lives have been lost to this concept in the 21st century), but essentially, this is a geopolitical game. 🙋

Bitcoin is one of the completely new forms of the 21st century. And it is potentially a resource that can give one country a geopolitical advantage. If one major country officially announces that it will henceforth rely on Bitcoin for its central bank reserves, this will trigger a chain reaction of Bitcoin purchases by all the central banks of the world.

However, in my opinion, this is precisely why leaders of major countries avoid such statements. Even Donald Trump limited himself to creating a national reserve from confiscated Bitcoin. And now the topic has practically disappeared from the media.

That's because no one wants to get involved in a Bitcoin buying war.  This is incredibly expensive because if you start buying Bitcoin, the price will immediately start to rise. Moreover, it's far from certain that you'll end up accumulating more Bitcoin than your competitors. Furthermore, if you've already staked your bet on gold, like China, selling gold and buying Bitcoin is extremely unprofitable. Furthermore, Bitcoin isn't gold. It's a digital currency that could potentially directly compete with any national currency. Therefore, in my opinion, most government leaders dream not of buying Bitcoin, but of Bitcoin disappearing entirely, as if it never existed. Fortunately, this isn't so easy to achieve.

[a-blockchain]

17 years is still a relatively short period of time to prove a thing can provide a strategic advantage in the future, especially for something bigger, like a country. For now, I think the narrative saying holding Bitcoin can be an advantage for a country is premature. I personally think the opposite. Countries will make Bitcoin bigger. Apart from the technology, the benefits, and the popularity, I think scarcity plays a significant role in why countries try to have more and more. In the end, the price will be driven by 2 things, the countries that own the most and how powerful the countries that own the most are.

Right now, it seems more likely that powerful countries can strengthen Bitcoin's narrative and influence, rather than Bitcoin alone strengthening a country's global position.

Imagine the country that owns the most is a third-world country, the market wouldn't react significantly. Bitcoin needs powerful countries to make it move significantly. They will build the narrative to show how valuable their holdings are and why other countries should see them as valuable too.

CMIIW.

This is the most realistic take in the thread. The direction of influence is correct powerful countries legitimize Bitcoin, not the other way around.
The US holding Bitcoin as a strategic reserve does not make Bitcoin more powerful. It makes the US narrative around Bitcoin more powerful. There is a big difference. Bitcoin's value comes from its decentralized network and fixed supply, not from which governments hold it.
For smaller countries like El Salvador the impact is also limited. El Salvador's experiment has shown that adoption alone does not transform an economy. Infrastructure, education, rule of law and productive capacity still matter more than what asset a government holds in reserve.
In the next 4 years Bitcoin will likely become a standard part of institutional portfolios globally. But it will remain primarily a store of value and hedge against inflation not a tool that shifts geopolitical power on its own.

[Muba20]

Bitcoin has been around for more than a decade and a half, serving as a digital currency and network around the world. Not only that, it is now maintaining the world's economic leadership and maintaining its influence on the global financial system. Many countries in the world are pushing this technological innovation forward to keep the economy in a strong position in the future.

The main purpose of creating Bitcoin was to create a decentralized financial system where people can trade their assets at any time according to their needs. There is no need for a third party in the transaction. No government or institution can hinder the transfer of money. That is, Bitcoin is the best option in the case of an independent financial system.

Over time, people have learned about Bitcoin, its limited supply, working as a hedge against inflation, and due to the increase in demand for Bitcoin for various reasons, people are now more interested in using Bitcoin. Starting from the individual level, people have started giving importance to storing Bitcoin at the national level. We know about El Salvador and now America has made Bitcoin its reserve currency. Countries can gain a wealth from investing in Bitcoin in the future, and in this context, countries have planned to increase investment at the national level. If you invest in the current price and hold it for a long time, it is not difficult to gain a large financial power from Bitcoin. Depending on the investment condition, it can play a significant role in the economy at the individual or national level.

[Floxynice]

Now the question is whether Bitcoin will be able to maintain the economic leadership, global influence and power of any country in the next 4 years based on its own technology, or is it just a technology that carries the meaning of digital currency and will ultimately remain primarily an investment asset?

Bitcoin alone cannot do this. It cannot help a country maintain its economic leadership, whether the country is considered an early adopter or not. A country needs more than just Bitcoin to be able to maintain that position. It needs to have a stable fiat currency, control of natural resources, a strong military, creative technological innovations, quality human capital development, and many more.

In my opinion, Bitcoin will just be a plus for any government that adopts it, and it will give them an opportunity to have an additional form of reserve apart from gold and fiat reserves, which are very common. If the country has every economic aspect under control and well developed, adding Bitcoin to its economic system could help it maintain economic leadership in the next four years.

[Shadiq]

Now the question is whether Bitcoin will be able to maintain the economic leadership, global influence and power of any country in the next 4 years based on its own technology, or is it just a technology that carries the meaning of digital currency and will ultimately remain primarily an investment asset?

No, Bitcoin may not give economic leadership and special power to any country. Because Bitcoin is still decentralized and will remain decentralized in the future. Therefore, it will not be easy for any country to take a majority of Bitcoin or take control of Bitcoin. However, it is not happening in the near future, rather we are still very far away.

When Bitcoin enslaves any country or gives special power to any country, then Bitcoin's power will be questioned. Because then the demand for Bitcoin in other countries will decrease and the price of Bitcoin will also decrease. It is certain that it is not possible for any country to maintain the momentum of Bitcoin alone. The indirect main reason for Bitcoin's popularity is decentralized policy and financial freedom.

[Filicius]

Now the question is whether Bitcoin will be able to maintain the economic leadership, global influence and power of any country in the next 4 years based on its own technology, or is it just a technology that carries the meaning of digital currency and will ultimately remain primarily an investment asset?

No, Bitcoin may not give economic leadership and special power to any country. Because Bitcoin is still decentralized and will remain decentralized in the future. Therefore, it will not be easy for any country to take a majority of Bitcoin or take control of Bitcoin. However, it is not happening in the near future, rather we are still very far away.

When Bitcoin enslaves any country or gives special power to any country, then Bitcoin's power will be questioned. Because then the demand for Bitcoin in other countries will decrease and the price of Bitcoin will also decrease. It is certain that it is not possible for any country to maintain the momentum of Bitcoin alone. The indirect main reason for Bitcoin's popularity is decentralized policy and financial freedom.

I'm not so sure about that. Think that some of the world's major powers are competing to get a bigger number of Bitcoin, creating strategic reserves... if they didn't think it had nothing to do with economic leadership, they wouldn't worry about this issue. While I very much doubt that in the next four years it will contribute to any change in the economic paradigm, I understand that they do not want to be left out of the game in the event that the future favours Bitcoin as a means of payment or investment.

[ZAINmalik75]

Now the question is whether Bitcoin will be able to maintain the economic leadership, global influence and power of any country in the next 4 years based on its own technology, or is it just a technology that carries the meaning of digital currency and will ultimately remain primarily an investment asset?

Four years is probably not a long enough duration to do anything decisive in this matter, and it is probably going to need more time because even a whole cycle can sometimes go beyond four years in this market, and who knows, by the time these four years end, the market might be in a bearish season and that would obviously reduce the effects we are talking about here. So for Bitcoin to actually make a country's economy stronger, it is important for it to have a significant value, because that's the only way the country will be a step ahead from other countries if they are holding a large amount of bitcoins.

Even though I personally believe we are overthinking about this matter, because Bitcoin was not primarily created for this purpose or such purposes at all, it is still understandable that any country, company, or individual that holds a significant number of bitcoins entering the future will surely have significantly high value in society because we know that Bitcoin has a nature of growing in value over time, and when that happens, the value that entity has put in will multiply for sure.

[Nwada001]

Now the question is whether Bitcoin will be able to maintain the economic leadership, global influence and power of any country in the next 4 years based on its own technology, or is it just a technology that carries the meaning of digital currency and will ultimately remain primarily an investment asset?

Remain in the economy's leadership; you make it sound as if it’s already there, which is far from the truth, and I don’t see it happening in the near future. We are over-expecting too much from Bitcoin and the government's involvement.

Bitcoin has a standing in the economy to some extent, but it’s not on top and leading the world economy. It's now in most countries' reserves but only holds a little percentage of the countries' total reserves, and for Bitcoin to be considered a leader in the world economy, it needs to be used and cover more than 50% of the total international world trade, which we don’t see happening. Even if the USD is to be replaced, the Chinese yuan will likely be next.

[abaeze]

Now the question is whether Bitcoin will be able to maintain the economic leadership, global influence and power of any country in the next 4 years based on its own technology, or is it just a technology that carries the meaning of digital currency and will ultimately remain primarily an investment asset?

Remain in the economy's leadership; you make it sound as if it’s already there, which is far from the truth, and I don’t see it happening in the near future. We are over-expecting too much from Bitcoin and the government's involvement.

Bitcoin has a standing in the economy to some extent, but it’s not on top and leading the world economy. It's now in most countries' reserves but only holds a little percentage of the countries' total reserves, and for Bitcoin to be considered a leader in the world economy, it needs to be used and cover more than 50% of the total international world trade, which we don’t see happening. Even if the USD is to be replaced, the Chinese yuan will likely be next.

Looking at the history of Bitcoin, it is clear that it is a revolutionary technology and asset that no one asked or forced to accept, but its technical security, benefits have forced people to adopt it. And this truth has been understood by governments and corporate companies in different countries of the world. Although it is an important asset in terms of demand and acceptability of Bitcoin, the expectation that it will become the main driving force of the world economy or an alternative to the dollar in the next few years is not realistic and in my opinion it is impossible. However, it is not correct that most countries have Bitcoin in their reserves because Bitcoin is not yet officially legal in almost all countries in Asia and Africa, except for some countries in America and Europe. Another thing that is still doubtful to me is that to lead, more than 50% of international trade must be in Bitcoin. Because a country's economic leadership depends on many factors, not just which currency is used more in trade, but also the size of the economy, productivity, technological innovation, military and political influence, and most importantly, the right rule of law and institutional strength in financial markets.

[pawanjain]

Well technically, bitcoin had been designed for the common people to be their own banks.
So that they can make peer to peer payments and don't feel the necessity to depend on the banks for that.
Although it still serves that purpose but it has also grown prominently as an investment option.
Since it has outperformed several other best assets, people are now including bitcoin in their portfolios and so many people hold it for monetary benefits.

[gracreavix]

As regard your topic question OP, I would say no. Four years is too small. But it might likely affect a countries economy positively if every country on earth sees the value just like gold. Later in years, Bitcoin will coexist as gold too. As Bitcoin adoption grows, it may likely replace some financial system permanently. I envy countries that accumulate Bitcoin early. I have a sleeping nation called Nigeria.

[Cryptomultiplier]

Well technically, bitcoin had been designed for the common people to be their own banks.
So that they can make peer to peer payments and don't feel the necessity to depend on the banks for that.
Although it still serves that purpose but it has also grown prominently as an investment option.
Since it has outperformed several other best assets, people are now including bitcoin in their portfolios and so many people hold it for monetary benefits.

We forget that some countries now have Bitcoin reserve banks or are planning to do so because they see a future possibility of it being a major sovereign geopolitical chip and that makes it the more of a strategic play as a nation to own it as citizens are doing and large corporations are doing too.
Anyone holding more of Bitcoin's shares out of the 21 million cap ultimately wins the wealth and lead status role and that defines a whole new concept of wealth and value on a different level.

[FP91G]

Bitcoin has been around for more than a decade and a half, serving as a digital currency and network around the world. Not only that, it is now maintaining the world's economic leadership and maintaining its influence on the global financial system. Many countries in the world are pushing this technological innovation forward to keep the economy in a strong position in the future.

The main purpose of creating Bitcoin was to create a decentralized financial system where people can trade their assets at any time according to their needs. There is no need for a third party in the transaction. No government or institution can hinder the transfer of money. That is, Bitcoin is the best option in the case of an independent financial system.

Over time, people have learned about Bitcoin, its limited supply, working as a hedge against inflation, and due to the increase in demand for Bitcoin for various reasons, people are now more interested in using Bitcoin. Starting from the individual level, people have started giving importance to storing Bitcoin at the national level. We know about El Salvador and now America has made Bitcoin its reserve currency. Countries can gain a wealth from investing in Bitcoin in the future, and in this context, countries have planned to increase investment at the national level. If you invest in the current price and hold it for a long time, it is not difficult to gain a large financial power from Bitcoin. Depending on the investment condition, it can play a significant role in the economy at the individual or national level.

El Salvador currently holds around 7,700 BTC, which they bought at an average price of 45,000.
Perhaps buying gold would have yielded better results instead, but Bitcoin is easier to store and doesn't require building dozens of gold vaults across the country to ensure security.

[minic1993]

I think four years is too short to see Bitcoin completely change a country's economic leadership. Bitcoin can definitely become a strategic asset if governments continue accumulating it, but a country's economy still depends on many other factors like productivity, innovation, trade, and fiscal policy. In my opinion, over the next four years we'll probably see Bitcoin become more important in national reserves and financial strategy rather than replacing traditional economic fundamentals. The long-term impact could be significant, but it won't happen overnight.