Myth breaker: Bitcoin UP after lower inflation predictions...

[YOSHIE]

Myth breaker: Bitcoin UP after lower inflation predictions..

In my understanding of Bitcoin, I think the behavior or reaction of the crypto market is very difficult and complicated, where in my understanding Bitcoin very often acts as a high-risk asset.

I believe that Bitcoin price movements are greatly influenced by sentiment towards global capital flows, when compared with inflation figures, although it can be said that Bitcoin's rise can be linked to falling inflation, for me that is a myth.

In several cases I have seen inflation go down, but the price of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin also goes down, and likewise, when inflation is high, the price of Bitcoin actually goes up.

[shinratensei_]

Story:
"Bitcoin Rebounds Above $61K As Fed Chair Warsh Eases Inflation Fears

https://yellow.com/news/bitcoin-rebounds-61k-fed-warsh

In other words, based on a report indicating that inflation will be DOWN, Bitcoin went UP. That's the opposite of a narrative we hear about Bitcoin over and over again.

Can people please stop saying that "Bitcoin is a hedge against USD inflation"? It's not.

Is it truly bitcoin going up because easing of inflation or there is no correlation between the two?
These news are mostly a big joke because they correlate two events that might not be related to each other. Bitcoin is already on the bottom, it's normal to go up even without the inflation news.

If someone farted and bitcoin go up at the same time, does that make bitcoin go up because someone farted?
Regardless of that, bitcoin is still hedge against inflation because the historical chart say so, bitcoin is still going up within long term period whether you like it or not.

[stompix]

Economics usually focus on the long run  
Bitcoin's fixed supply of 21 million is hardcoded unlike fiat that central banks print endlessly
This to me is necessary to be called an hedge against Monetary debasement.

This is actually one of the weakest arguments here.
Fixed supply does not guarantee anything other than the governing power won't be able to dilute the value on purpose; it doesn't guarantee beating inflation.
Litecoin is basically a Bitcoin copy with also a fixed supply, how did that work?

It is not, never was. Bitcoin doesn't care about what happens in the world, and it's irrelevant, it has always followed the same four year cycle and it will continue to follow that.

History repeats itself till it stops doing so.
And when it does, there will be a lot of pickahu faces not understanding that cycles are created by people's beliefs, not by some magic internet protocol!
Also, if you're telling me that if in 2029 if nukes start flying around, Bitcoin will still double in price cause it doesn't care about the world, then....

[bitgolden]

Bitcoin IS a hedge against inflation, just long term. Meaning? If you bought bitcoin 5 years ago? You were in profit, if you bought it 10 years ago? You were in profit.

In fact, even comparing to inflation as calculated, not just the price increase, you add in the inflation as well, purchasing power, and you would still be in profit. It's just that, you are not going to see it go up anytime inflation is up, you are going to see it up any give moment, but it is a hedge, for the long term.

[legiteum]

Bitcoin IS a hedge against inflation, just long term. Meaning? If you bought bitcoin 5 years ago? You were in profit, if you bought it 10 years ago? You were in profit.

If you bought BTC in November of 2021--5 years ago--you would have less money today.

Bitcoin is no different than any other speculative investment: if you timed it right, you made money, and if you didn't, you lost money.

It's idiotic to simply buy Bitcoin and assume it will go up forever and ever just because it happened to go up in the past.

Is it truly bitcoin going up because easing of inflation or there is no correlation between the two?

Well, the financial news sure seems to think so, and that itself is telling. No serious professional investor thinks Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation.

[BlackHatCoiner]

Wow, ground-breaking analysis! You looked at a single day's price action and completely dismantled a decade of macroeconomic data. Congrats on discovering that risk-on liquidity rallies when rate cut expectations rise.

By all means, go lock your cash in TIPS so the government can feed you manipulated CPI numbers and pay you back in depreciating monopoly money. Definitely protecting yourself from the enemy using the enemy themselves is a smart strategy that works!

[legiteum]

By all means, go lock your cash in TIPS so the government can feed you manipulated CPI numbers and pay you back in depreciating monopoly money. Definitely protecting yourself from the enemy using the enemy themselves is a smart strategy that works!

That "enemy" you are talking about--the United States--is responsible for most of Bitcoin's market cap. And if you are envisioning a world where there's no United States, there's probably not going to be a working Internet, either. 

The best thing to invest in if you seriously think the USA is going to collapse is... bullets.   

[EFS]

You can't draw definitive conclusions based on short-term price movements. This thread is proof of that. I haven't seen a better investment than Bitcoin when it comes to beating inflation. Claiming otherwise is honestly strange. The historical data speaks for itself. We're talking about an asset that has outpaced inflation by several times over the years. It doesn't even make sense to compare it with anything else. We'll probably never see a more profitable investment in our lifetime.

[legiteum]

The historical data speaks for itself.

Bitcoin lost half of its value in the last 12 months. 

If you cherry pick a set of dates absolutely any investment in the world can be made to look good.