Cant stake just change the formula whenever they like and the hash will still show correct?
The formula is public, so not without detection
Impressive use of data. Hard to believe that 26 billion dollars has been wagered on this game. I’ll admit a couple of those dollars are from me. Still, it is absolutely shocking seeing the numbers so big. If Stake takes 1% as you say then that is 260 million dollars in profit from a single game. Quite impressive.
Yes approx thats how much stake has taken from players for 1 game. Dice and plinko are around 70-80B each too so not even their biggest one.
This is the first video I've made, If you find it valuable and want another game broken down let me know.
This is really,
really dope. Nice work, here. I really like that airplane game where you launch it and it catches multipliers or bombs in the air, and you have to land on an aircraft carrier (win) or water (lose). Well, I guess I'd have to say I like
watching clips online of other people playing it - I've never played it myself. I'm curious as to what a breakdown would look like, as seen here with the crash game you did.
Impressive use of data. Hard to believe that 26 billion dollars has been wagered on this game. I’ll admit a couple of those dollars are from me. Still, it is absolutely shocking seeing the numbers so big. If Stake takes 1% as you say then that is 260 million dollars in profit from a single game. Quite impressive.
It's a testament to how popular online gambling has become. I'd like to see some IRL casinos pull that shit off, nowadays.
Yes if there was enough interest, I assume you are talking about aviamasters by Bgaming
Since this thread involves some mathematical analysis, I predict it won't have dozens of replies, because people won't be able to shitpost as easily.
Target Rounds reached Observed Theory
Instant (1.00x) [COUNT] 1.97% 1.98%
Reach 1.5x 5,442,953 66.000% 66.000%
Reach 2x 4,083,123 49.511% 49.500%
Reach 5x 1,633,849 19.812% 19.800%
Reach 10x 817,238 9.910% 9.900%
Reach 50x 163,711 1.985% 1.980%
Reach 100x 81,773 0.992% 0.990%
Aggregate RTP 8,246,854 99.087% 99.000%
Ultimately, what we see is that, in large samples, the difference between the expected result and the actual result is minimized.
The 1% edge holds at every cash-out target, so no strategy changes the return.
The strategy regarding changing the multiplier doesn't change the return, but here I'd like to highlight the compounding effect of 1% working against you. A $1 bet repeated enough ends up at $0.
Thats ok I don't expect normal players to be interested in deep math and technical topics, but might be interesting for some.
Wow!
That is cool. 8.2 million rounds. Awesome!
Anyway, I have my share of playing this game for like 200 rounds maybe, and I still pick Stake Crash over other Stake Original games because of the fact that you can stop the game if you want and make a profit. That's not available on any other games, either in casino or slots, which makes it more interesting. Although it can be boring sometimes because of the waiting time, especially when it hits x1000+, and you have already cashed out.
Reached x100 with 81,773. 1 percent of the total rounds. I guess I am lucky I got one of those.
Nice, yes they have ~1.7m more rounds and then they'll have to do another seeding event
I do not play at Stake anymore except in very early days,,, but did your calculations take into account also promotional periods where they lowered the house edge for Crash?
IIRC they did this sometimes but I cannot remember if it was only for Dice or also for Crash. For me even though it is very tiny,,, that could also account for Observed higher percentage? People behaviour I think is to go big volume during low house edge.
The calculation is done against 1% house edge, so it wouldn't capture a change in formula although I assume they prob didn't change the formula just gave bonus for difference in the promotional period if true.
The 8.2M rounds were tested against cashout targets 1.5x, 2x, 5x, 10x, 50x because it would be impossible for me to know what exact cashout every player chose for every game ever played.
