The Final Countdown for CLARITY: Senate Has Four Weeks to Act

[sergiorus]

According to "Crypto in America" [1], lawmakers have roughly four weeks to advance the Clarity Act before the August recess, widely seen as its last realistic chance to pass this year.

Updated Senate text is expected this week, but disputes over developer protections, ethics rules and securing 60 votes remain unresolved. Senator Cynthia Lummis said the bill would give Americans greater confidence and security to participate in the digital economy.


Polymarket currently assesses the chance of Clarity Act approval in 2026 at 24%. [2]


Ultimate capitulation event incoming?



[1] https://www.cryptoinamerica.com/p/the-final-countdown-for-clarity

[2] https://polymarket.com/event/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026

[retaur]

24% sounds a bit too optimistic. I imagine if that showed up on a regular (non crypto focused exchange) you'd see that fall to about 4-5% if that.

A bill that allows a way for some deceralised privacy features is good but perhaps it needs more limits than what it sounds is being suggested.

[Die_empty]

With the death of Republican Senator Lindsey Graham and the ill health of Senator Mitch McConnell, the sponsors of the bill might have to work hard to get the required number to pass the bill. Hoping that the provision that protects non-custodial software developers from being prosecuted as unlicensed money transmitters is still in place.

The trade is that Polymarket will end by the 31st  of December 2026, and the chance of approval is now 40%. But the Senate will go on recess in August and then resume in September. The midterm election is in November, so time is of the essence now.

[sergiorus]

24% sounds a bit too optimistic. I imagine if that showed up on a regular (non crypto focused exchange) you'd see that fall to about 4-5% if that.

A bill that allows a way for some deceralised privacy features is good but perhaps it needs more limits than what it sounds is being suggested.

I wouldn't call Polymarket a "crypto-focused" platform. At least not anymore.

But I agree, the real chance is probably very slim but at the same time I'm frustrated why do the smart money let people buy $1 for $0.24 then? Maybe it's more nuanced than we think.