The Final Countdown for CLARITY: Senate Has Four Weeks to Act

[Fiatless]

Ultimate capitulation event? I think it's too early to call it that. Let's assume the Clarity Act is passed now, you shouldn't expect the market to react like many people actually expect and that's because a lot of investors may have already priced in the possibility.

The best approach for me now is to wait and see the final outcome and then see how the market and big investors will respond afterward.

Although there are some good proposals in the Clarity Act, I don't see it having so much effect on the price of Bitcoin. The Genius Act, which gives the US the power to establish a Bitcoin reserve, would definitely have more impact than this bill. So I guess anyone who is waiting for the impact of this bill to make a crypto investment decision might not be doing the right thing.

[rat03gopoh]

Democrats going to keep calling the bill corrupt as long as the bill doesn't clearly prohibit the president from benefiting off crypto. Pretty clear what the opposition senate wants and it's pretty clear why it won't happen as well, unless some miralce happen it won't pass.

And Trump has approved the ethics amendment⁽¹⁾, which is the final consideration for the Senate Democrats before approving it (requiring at least seven Senate seats from the opposition; the Republicans have 53⁽²⁾).

It's no wonder BTC responded to this positive signal.


1) https://bitcoinfoundation.org/news/regulation/us-clarity-act-agreement/
2) https://www.senate.gov/senators/

[sergiorus]

Democrats going to keep calling the bill corrupt as long as the bill doesn't clearly prohibit the president from benefiting off crypto. Pretty clear what the opposition senate wants and it's pretty clear why it won't happen as well, unless some miralce happen it won't pass.

And Trump has approved the ethics amendment⁽¹⁾, which is the final consideration for the Senate Democrats before approving it (requiring at least seven Senate seats from the opposition; the Republicans have 53⁽²⁾).

It's no wonder BTC responded to this positive signal.


1) https://bitcoinfoundation.org/news/regulation/us-clarity-act-agreement/
2) https://www.senate.gov/senators/

I don't know, the Polymarket odds briefly surged above 50% but now retraced back to 40%. There's still a lack of optimism regarding this bill.

I'm also still seeing conflicting information on the deadline, but from what has been posted today, seems like it either gets approved in the next 15 days, or they won't get back to it until 2027.



*EDIT*

Updates to the Clarity Bill just went public:

* SENATE CLARITY ACT WOULD BAN PRESIDENTS, OTHER FEDERAL OFFICIALS AND OTHER COVERED OFFICIALS, ALONG WITH THEIR SPOUSES FROM ISSUING OR SPONSORING CRYPTOCURRENCIES AND OTHER DIGITAL ASSETS: CNBC [INFINITYHEDGE]

* THE BILL REQUIRES COVERED OFFICIALS TO SELL THEIR CRYPTO HOLDINGS AND INVESTMENTS IN CRYPTO COMPANIES, PLACE THEM IN A BLIND TRUST THEY DO NOT CONTROL, OR BOTH

* ETHICS PACKAGE WOULD REQUIRE DISCLOSURE OF CRYPTO SALES EXCEEDING $1,000 AND DIRECT THE GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABILITY OFFICE TO STUDY ADDITIONAL ETHICS GAPS: ET

[sergiorus]

Finance Industry Splits Over CLARITY Act

Bank lobbying against the CLARITY Act contrasts with support voiced by BlackRock, Fidelity, Charles Schwab, Goldman Sachs and Grayscale. Polymarket’s reported odds of enactment in 2026 have fallen from above 80% in February to 38%.


Big names from Wall Street didn't manage to lift the market's pessimism about the act.
People still don't expect it to pass this year, despite some of the most powerful lobbying ever.


I don't think BTC holders should be bothered by this, but if you hold something like AAVE, MORPHO or SKY, there could be some turmoil on the charts when it's clear the Clarity isn't happening this year.

[asriloni]

I don't know, the Polymarket odds briefly surged above 50% but now retraced back to 40%. There's still a lack of optimism regarding this bill.

I'm also still seeing conflicting information on the deadline, but from what has been posted today, seems like it either gets approved in the next 15 days, or they won't get back to it until 2027.

As i know John Curtis is still raising some critical concerns regarding the clarity act bill. So it triggers skepticism among poly traders about the clarity act to be approved.

*EDIT*

Updates to the Clarity Bill just went public:

* SENATE CLARITY ACT WOULD BAN PRESIDENTS, OTHER FEDERAL OFFICIALS AND OTHER COVERED OFFICIALS, ALONG WITH THEIR SPOUSES FROM ISSUING OR SPONSORING CRYPTOCURRENCIES AND OTHER DIGITAL ASSETS: CNBC [INFINITYHEDGE]

You don't mentioned the most important part is that ban will be last until 2029, and it's not limited to his family members. So his kids still able to sponsoring cryto related project.

[Publictalk792]

Finance Industry Splits Over CLARITY Act

Bank lobbying against the CLARITY Act contrasts with support voiced by BlackRock, Fidelity, Charles Schwab, Goldman Sachs and Grayscale. Polymarket’s reported odds of enactment in 2026 have fallen from above 80% in February to 38%.


Big names from Wall Street didn't manage to lift the market's pessimism about the act.
People still don't expect it to pass this year, despite some of the most powerful lobbying ever.


I don't think BTC holders should be bothered by this, but if you hold something like AAVE, MORPHO or SKY, there could be some turmoil on the charts when it's clear the Clarity isn't happening this year.

The real story here is that the odds on Polymarket have fallen from 80% to 38%. There is no floor vote planned at this time and as of this writing, the bill remains on schedule until the strict deadline of August 7, before Senate break.

It is rules provision that is holding it up. Key Democrats would like to ban federal officials from issuing crypto, Republicans have introduced new language on July 22 to deal with this, but Senate supporters of previous versions are threatening to turn against it. Old fashioned Washington chaos. If it does not pass this summer, next likely shot is 2027. That is a long wait.

[sergiorus]

You don't mentioned the most important part is that ban will be last until 2029, and it's not limited to his family members. So his kids still able to sponsoring cryto related project.

I just copypasted the news. The ban lasting until 2029 is not a big problem because it can always be prolonged, besided, I suppose they expect the industry to mature enough for it no longer pose any systemic risks after 2029.

The family members part is concerning but frankly it's not that big of a problem either. The main damage to the industry came from TRUMP and MELANIA tokens, not World Liberty. Also with this act, Trump would not be able to be affiliated with World Liberty, so it would never get that big to begin with. No one would care about his sons involvement.