Is the 4 year cycle theory dead, or did we just get impatient?

[Tiaramane]

I have been checking a few of the macro threads here and figured I'd throw this out properly instead of burying it in a reply.
For years the playbook was simple, halving happens, roughly 12-18 months later you get a new ATH, then a 70-80% dump, rinse and repeat. Worked in 2013, worked in 2017, worked  a bit in 2021.

This cycle is looking weird. We topped around $126K back in October last year, which actually lines up okay with the old timing. But the drawdown since then doesn't feel like the old bear markets. Nothing actually broke. No exchange rugged, no stablecoin lost its peg, nothing like terra or ftx.
Its literally just been ETF money leaving and the fed being difficult for months straight, that's different from the other bear market if you think about it. Also feels like there's way less hype this time around too, no random hype no one talking about alts, feels like nobody even wants to be here which is kinda weird for how much price has moved. I'm curious, does institutional money change the cycle permanently or did it just give wall street a faster way to dump on us, what do you all think, dead theory or same thing with a different excuse

[Charles-Tim]

There was terra luna kind of coins. Did you not know what happened to Rave? From over $6 billion marketcap, it is now around $63 million marketcap.

No FTX and FTT because Sam Bankman-Fried was an example that will make some people understand that they should not misappropriate their users money.

Or maybe because bitcoin did not fall much, but as of now, the 4 years cycle still holds, but diminishing.

[BitMaxz]

Well, there is a slight difference today; the theory has changed from 70-80% now looks like we dump only around 50% to 60% compared to previous years, but remember why BTC prices dropped so hard at the time? We are in a pandemic when Bitcoin and altcoins fall that low.

I believe the cycle still the same but with slight differences; it's not totally the exact same scenario, but still the price movement is still the same as before. There are just many things added in this new era, including the ETFs so I believe the pervious cycle will still repeat but with slight differences.

[philipma1957]

the four year cycle is kind of twisted but if we drop more it would be closer to normal.

and if we go up from here it would be more twisted.

so we are in a slightly muddled spot.

which could get more muddled which is good because we would head up and alter the cycle more..

we could do the crabwallk for a year which would mean muddles and different.

we could drop more in either sept oct or nov getting to the true bottom.

or worst of all we simply tank down to a stupid low number like 10k or 5k.

So I would not agree with any definition of a classic four year cycle today but we still

could get closer to it.


Mostly all is I don't know .

But I am stacking as best I can.

[GreatArkansas]

Everything for me has now changed. Even this 4-year cycle,  just like what philipma1957 said, is kinda twisted now; it will not always be the same.

There are already a lot of things to consider, especially the market cap, the trading volume, ETF, the institutions coming in, etc. 
Plus, this is how the market works: a lot of expectation, so for me, the 4-year cycle is not relevant for me anymore.

[Cryptomultiplier]

I don't think the four year cycle is dead, but it has become dominated and more orderly, more institutionalized by wall street and almost more monitored and regulated by governments, because it is now a part of the hybrid macroeconomics of most countries of the world.
It's the price Bitcoin has to pay for massive adoption, but the maths remains same even if it has become more difficult to attain an ATH like previous years after a halving.

[rat03gopoh]

Bitcoin capital inflows have been contributed from various entities that hold large amounts of bitcoin or offer exposure to multiple parties. Many people used to expect their involvement to pump up and then create a uniform confidence (psicplogically), what they didn't think about was whether they all also adhered to the theory of market cycles to make decisions, buying and selling. The higher the value, the more fundamental factors that drive it, and that will make Bitcoin slowly deviate from the 4 year cycle theory.

[Shinpako09]

I don't think so. Personally, we didn't get much out of it, and what happened was less than expected, but I believe the cycle is still alive. It's just that we've come so far already, and tons of new coins are being created every day. So, even if the cycle isn't dead yet, the gains in the coming cycles probably won't be as massive as before. I think that's normal, we can't have it all, after all. Some people will probably be disappointed, but that's just how it is.

[CryptoYar]

Most interesting part of this cycle is fact that there is actually nothing broken. There were clear bear market triggers in past, Terra, FTX, Mt Gox. This one is simply slow ETF selling and global economy slowdowns which creates vastly different mental market. Lack of regular buyer excitement is a good indicator. When market is not talking about the altcoins, and crypto is dull, that is sign that it is more of buying and holding bottom and not the continuation of downtrend. 2018-2019 season was just like that. It's not the end of the cycle. It is simply different look when big fish have to report on quarterly basis and rules departments.

[philipma1957]

Most interesting part of this cycle is fact that there is actually nothing broken. There were clear bear market triggers in past, Terra, FTX, Mt Gox. This one is simply slow ETF selling and global economy slowdowns which creates vastly different mental market. Lack of regular buyer excitement is a good indicator. When market is not talking about the altcoins, and crypto is dull, that is sign that it is more of buying and holding bottom and not the continuation of downtrend. 2018-2019 season was just like that. It's not the end of the cycle. It is simply different look when big fish have to report on quarterly basis and rules departments.

the time has not expired so the four year cycle is certainly alive but it is more like a hill not a peak.

since the four year time is not expired we need to wait to confirm.

but we certainly are alive for it to happen.

even if it is a gentle double roll like  120k and 126k

then 58.9k then 57.7k

it is like a pair of average breasts for the high

and a pair of small breasts for the low.


but with the time left if we drop to 55k in nov and go upwards it would be a triple low and a double high which would be newish.

[DanWalker]

This cycle is looking weird. We topped around $126K back in October last year, which actually lines up okay with the old timing. But the drawdown since then doesn't feel like the old bear markets. Nothing actually broke. No exchange rugged, no stablecoin lost its peg, nothing like terra or ftx.
Its literally just been ETF money leaving and the fed being difficult for months straight, that's different from the other bear market if you think about it. Also feels like there's way less hype this time around too, no random hype no one talking about alts, feels like nobody even wants to be here which is kinda weird for how much price has moved.

It is worth keeping in mind that market mature over time, and each stage is influenced by different factors. So even if the cycle repeat, it does not mean the market has to play out exactly the same way in every detail or every event. Similarly, just because this cycle is being driven by different factors does not mean the cycle has been broken.

So far, the cycle is still repeating itself, regardless of what is driving the market this time.  However, many people prefer to make thing more complicated by believing this time is different instead of simply trusting the cycle.

[jcojci]

The cycle still there but the situation changed by many institutional entering crypto. They could trying controlling the market by making sensational news to moves the price. Maybe the situation now different than before so you need to be careful to decide and don't panic if you read some news.

Maybe Bitcoin still have a chance to increase and get another ATH in the end of the year or next year but who knows. We only knowing that the price is down hard and stay at the lower price but the price still closer with the situation before the last ATH reached so nothing to worry and just prepares for anything.

[OgNasty]

The four year cycle is playing out exactly as expected. I don’t understand people saying otherwise. You’d have to be so locked into denial to even think it… Saylor said it and got humbled almost immediately being forced to sell Bitcoin and make dilutive stock sales. I hope when the summer of 29 comes around people use more sense.

[Perfectbaby]

I think then you are missing out completely because you can’t expect the market to follow the same sequential trend that happened years past and if you must know in every market cycle there is always a trend. However, the reason why people are not putting much interest in altcoin is because their focus has been channelled to bitcoin since Trump uses bitcoin as a strategy to gain himself into power and lot of people of people voted him and that made bitcoin gain more traction than ever, after that ETF of a thing took place.

So, for me I must say that the recent halving came with that and they must not repeat the trend or past events. What more? Then we would have to wait for the next halving to know what would come up again as people are that sicked and tired of altcoin hype, nowadays people are now making right investment decisions where they wouldn’t want to be that losing their money shitcoin as back then seems people were blindfolded of making quick money from altcoin but it always results in loses.

[philipma1957]

Well the mining cycle does not end  so every 47-49 months we do a 1/2ing that's pretty much a sure thing.

the price cycle is in the process of separating from the mining cycle.

look at gold from 1969 to now long stretches of flat sharp jumps and drops.

btc will begin to switch away from the predictable 4 year cycle into something like gold.

[Agbamoni]

It is making more sense now. I believe Bitcoin's historical four-year cycle is not over yet. Until years have passed, it will diminish till it dont exist anymore.
It is fair to say that every cycle is different. Previous patterns don't repeat themselves, although it may have a similar flow, but it's different.
2024 halving took place around April, and it will run till April 2028, which is the next expected halving. Roughly a year and 9 months remaining for the next halving.

[Comeacross]

The four year cycle is playing out exactly as expected. I don’t understand people saying otherwise. You’d have to be so locked into denial to even think it… Saylor said it and got humbled almost immediately being forced to sell Bitcoin and make dilutive stock sales. I hope when the summer of 29 comes around people use more sense.

It feels weird thou but it does not mean the circle is broken the way people want to paint it. But it is playing out differently this time around with different magnitude from the previous circles. Saylor case is different because they are trying to adapt to real obligations to avoid excessive dilution in a tough time.  I don't know what the fuse is all about knowing how volatile bitcoin is and there is no guaranteed to repeat the precise past cycles.

[pooya87]

No it is not dead and it is not changed either. But there are other factors that are affecting the market. Most important ones these days are inflation and recession.

It started from 2020 when the COVID19 pandemic destroyed the global economy and brought about recession. In recession people who run out of money, will have to sell their assets to make ends meet. That sell pressure not only stopped the rally but pushed market into a bear mode.

We again saw it after NATO-Russia war broke out in 2022 and caused another recession.

And that trend continues these days as well.
Each time inflation goes up, bitcoin rises too.
Each time recession gets worse, bitcoin drops.

[Awaklara]

what do you all think, dead theory or same thing with a different excuse

We can't expect that cycle to happen accurately and consistently. We can expect the market situation to change. We know what's going on. After all, the market is influenced by demand, and the adoptions that happen are very likely to affect that cycle. We can't stick to a 4-year cycle, but halving might be a moment that people consider in their investment plans.

[YOSHIE]

Is the 4 year cycle theory dead, or did we just get impatient?

I'm speculating while we still see the price of Bitcoin going up and down, I'm very confident the four year cycle we know Halving is not dead, but as time goes by it will, It's just that maybe we are currently in an immature crypto market situation or maybe we are no longer patient to see this cycle.

I see and have confidence in speculation and the market, Bitcoin will experience new changes and new dynamics over the next four year cycle.