Is the 4 year cycle theory dead, or did we just get impatient?

[buwaytress]

Yeah, not sure why people keep thinking another ATH comes this year or even next. Sure, the cycle as we know it is dead, but there is a cycle, always. And there's a painful bottom that'll make people think twice and visit regrets they never knew they fathered. That hasn't come yet. It might not be in a form we recognise, but oh, it will come. Pain before joy, Bitcoin people. Pain before joy.

[yudi09]

The four-year cycle has begun to deviate, not change completely. I’m looking at the period from 2012 to 2026. The pattern began to deviate in 2025. 2025 was the third year—if I’m not mistaken—and it should have been green as usual based on the previous pattern, but it actually closed in the red.
In my opinion, don’t use that pattern as a benchmark for investing in Bitcoin, because understanding how the market works makes it easier to figure out what you should do.

[EarnOnVictor]

The unnecessary awareness and misinformation about halving and Bitcoin's 4-year cycle are many, but the truth remains that the 4-year cycle of Bitcoin has not broken, and what is currently happening is enough reason for us to be assured of that. Or what do we say? Take a careful look of the history, it can't be 100% the same, but are only identical.

The only much difference happened in the last cycle, which even later aligned well and proven to be identified again. That was when the hype around ETF forced an early bull run in Bitcoin.

[marrcelo]

Bitcoin's four year cycle hasn't changed, some small changes that don't make much difference, but with big financial institutions and government entering Bitcoin, the tendency is that each cycle bigger changes happen. For the big players of the market it's not good that Bitcoin is predictable and a lot of people win, they don't want to divide the profit with a lot of people, the tendency is that each four year cycle has stronger change.

[Iranus]

The four-year cycle has begun to deviate, not change completely. I’m looking at the period from 2012 to 2026. The pattern began to deviate in 2025. 2025 was the third year—if I’m not mistaken—and it should have been green as usual based on the previous pattern, but it actually closed in the red.
In my opinion, don’t use that pattern as a benchmark for investing in Bitcoin, because understanding how the market works makes it easier to figure out what you should do.

Bitcoin peaked in 12/ 2017, and the bear market started shortly afterward. Similarly, Bitcoin peaked at $69k in 11/2021, and a bear market emerged shortly afterward.

In the current cycle, Bitcoin reached $126k in late October 2025. Although it closed the year in the red, it was still a bullish year in the sense that it set a new ath. So I don't think that relying on just one small detail like that is enough to conclude that the 4 year cycle has gone off track.

However, I agree that we shouldn't rely too heavily on the 4 year cycle because it can be broken at any time.

[philipma1957]

The four-year cycle has begun to deviate, not change completely. I’m looking at the period from 2012 to 2026. The pattern began to deviate in 2025. 2025 was the third year—if I’m not mistaken—and it should have been green as usual based on the previous pattern, but it actually closed in the red.
In my opinion, don’t use that pattern as a benchmark for investing in Bitcoin, because understanding how the market works makes it easier to figure out what you should do.

Bitcoin peaked in 12/ 2017, and the bear market started shortly afterward. Similarly, Bitcoin peaked at $69k in 11/2021, and a bear market emerged shortly afterward.

In the current cycle, Bitcoin reached $126k in late October 2025. Although it closed the year in the red, it was still a bullish year in the sense that it set a new ath. So I don't think that relying on just one small detail like that is enough to conclude that the 4 year cycle has gone off track.

However, I agree that we shouldn't rely too heavily on the 4 year cycle because it can be broken at any time.

we never did an all time high before the ½ ing until 2024 that is a first

we passed 70k before the 2024 ½ ing that is a break in the four year price cycle fact like it or not.

we all know the four year ½ ings continue but we have three new things.

1 early all time high before the ½ ing
2 early price drop from the finall ath
3 smallest % drop  about 53%

so do we get

4 earliest price recovery ever.


if we do I would say the price cycle is broken.

ie if we go over 127k in 2026 or 2027 the four year price cycle is done.

but if we drop to 52k this nov and do not get full recovery until 2028 ½ ing then four year price cycle is alive and well.

so we won’t be sure until later then today

[Danica22]

Bitcoin's four year cycle hasn't changed, some small changes that don't make much difference, but with big financial institutions and government entering Bitcoin, the tendency is that each cycle bigger changes happen. For the big players of the market it's not good that Bitcoin is predictable and a lot of people win, they don't want to divide the profit with a lot of people, the tendency is that each four year cycle has stronger change.

Bitcoin reached new ATH before the halving, something that had never happened before. So its fair to say that Bitcoin's cycle has changed, but it has not been completely broken.

However, it is unlikely to maintain that pattern forever. Sooner or later, it will be completely broken and a new cycle will emerge.

You are right. When everything becomes too predictable, those with the power to move the market will find way to disrupt it. Only thing we don't know is when they will do it.

[yudi09]

The four-year cycle has begun to deviate, not change completely. I’m looking at the period from 2012 to 2026. The pattern began to deviate in 2025. 2025 was the third year—if I’m not mistaken—and it should have been green as usual based on the previous pattern, but it actually closed in the red.
In my opinion, don’t use that pattern as a benchmark for investing in Bitcoin, because understanding how the market works makes it easier to figure out what you should do.

Bitcoin peaked in 12/ 2017, and the bear market started shortly afterward. Similarly, Bitcoin peaked at $69k in 11/2021, and a bear market emerged shortly afterward.

In the current cycle, Bitcoin reached $126k in late October 2025. Although it closed the year in the red, it was still a bullish year in the sense that it set a new ath. So I don't think that relying on just one small detail like that is enough to conclude that the 4 year cycle has gone off track.

However, I agree that we shouldn't rely too heavily on the 4 year cycle because it can be broken at any time.

If you examine price data based on Bitcoin halvings, you’ll see that following the 2012 halving, Bitcoin’s all-time high (ATH) was $1,156, which occurred a year later in 2013. In 2013, before reaching that $1,156 ATH, Bitcoin was trading just under $300 but didn’t stay there long—it fell again until it eventually hit the $1,156 ATH.

In 2017, 2021, and April 2024, take a look at the price patterns following the halving and the ATHs for each of those years. Although there’s a slight difference in 2024, it’s nothing to worry about.

[Bitcoin_people]

People are commenting on the four-year cycle of Bitcoin in many ways, some are saying it is over, some are saying it is not, there is still a lot of controversy. The four-year cycle is not over yet, but some of its patterns have changed, since we know that the market will not run the same way as before, there will be some changes. It is natural that the time of the four-year cycle will change a little as the price changes. Basically, at present, big companies are using Bitcoin for investment, due to which the market behavior has changed a little. However, we know that the market never runs according to our expectations, it runs according to its pattern, in that case the four-year cycle is not over yet, it is according to its pattern. However, we have to proceed according to the situation of the Bitcoin market, and since we know that according to the four-year cycle, there will be a bull run in the market after the halving, in that case it will not be the same time as before, it will change a little time, it is natural, but we have to be patient.

[knowngunman]

The four-year cycle has begun to deviate, not change completely. I’m looking at the period from 2012 to 2026. The pattern began to deviate in 2025. 2025 was the third year—if I’m not mistaken—and it should have been green as usual based on the previous pattern, but it actually closed in the red.
In my opinion, don’t use that pattern as a benchmark for investing in Bitcoin, because understanding how the market works makes it easier to figure out what you should do.

A lot of things have changed since then. Seeing the patterns deviating from the previous ones shouldn't be surprising. The previous cycles were completely driven by halving, there was no institutional impacts. The coming of ETFs and institutions have forced us to deviate from regular patterns because they only care about their allocation and not the cycle. This does not mean there's no longer four year cycle or we are getting impatient as Op concern is. The cycle was/is never a strategy for investment.

[Free Market Capitalist]

A lot of things have changed since then. Seeing the patterns deviating from the previous ones shouldn't be surprising.

Rather, what we call patterns are nothing more than regularities that we project onto series of past events, and which we use to make predictions about the future—until events in that future disprove, at least in part, those “regularities.” Then we all reinterpret them, establish new patterns, and make new predictions. What we call cycles are nothing more than certain types of patterns that we establish, which will continue to change in the future. I think it's entirely possible that no new highs will be reached for one or two cycles, which would disprove the cycle patterns that we have projected.

In short, I'm not sure if the 4-year cycle theory is already dead today, but I'm certain that at some point in the future it will be.

[adultcrypto]

A lot of things have changed since then. Seeing the patterns deviating from the previous ones shouldn't be surprising. The previous cycles were completely driven by halving, there was no institutional impacts. The coming of ETFs and institutions have forced us to deviate from regular patterns because they only care about their allocation and not the cycle. This does not mean there's no longer four year cycle or we are getting impatient as Op concern is. The cycle was/is never a strategy for investment.

I do not completely disagree with you my friend but I just want you to be more specific in your claim to make the discussion easier to understand. In your opinion, we have shifted from the 4 year cycle to something else due to institutional involvement via the ETF approval, if I may ask, does this make us to shift from seeing the peak in the year after halving followed by a bear market the next year? Someone can still argue that the 4 year cycle is still in place using the fact that bitcoin made ATH in 2025 which was followed by a bear market that we are seeing now. This still conforms to the 4 years cycle of ATH of ..2013, 2017, 2021, 2025, 2029. Until this is broken completely, then we can say that the cycle have shifted to something else.

[yudi09]

-snip-

A lot of things have changed since then. Seeing the patterns deviating from the previous ones shouldn't be surprising. The previous cycles were completely driven by halving, there was no institutional impacts. The coming of ETFs and institutions have forced us to deviate from regular patterns because they only care about their allocation and not the cycle. This does not mean there's no longer four year cycle or we are getting impatient as Op concern is. The cycle was/is never a strategy for investment.

That’s why it’s important to examine Bitcoin’s price movements following halvings since 2012 and its all-time high (ATH) in 2013 to understand how that pattern formed, so that through this analysis, we can identify the factors that made a difference leading up to the next ATH, which is expected to occur in 2025 following the 2024 halving.
Regardless of any influences resulting from factors such as ETFs and other institutions, there’s no need to panic if your goal is long-term with the hope of making a profit, as long as you continue to buy regularly.

[Derekfunds]

Bitcoin's four year cycle hasn't changed, some small changes that don't make much difference, but with big financial institutions and government entering Bitcoin, the tendency is that each cycle bigger changes happen. For the big players of the market it's not good that Bitcoin is predictable and a lot of people win, they don't want to divide the profit with a lot of people, the tendency is that each four year cycle has stronger change.

I don't think it actually make any sense for someone who want to invest in Bitcoin for long term to be predicting the movement or price of Bitcoin or checking the cycle of Bitcoin because I don't really see these things necessary since someone is already in for the long term investment. The cycle may not look exactly like the previous ones and this alone can cause confusion or make someone misinterpret something while trying to figure out something about the cycle. Bitcoin has been existing and growing and I don't think it will stop anytime soon

[Zoomic]

A lot of things have changed since then. Seeing the patterns deviating from the previous ones shouldn't be surprising.

Rather, what we call patterns are nothing more than regularities that we project onto series of past events, and which we use to make predictions about the future—until events in that future disprove, at least in part, those “regularities.” Then we all reinterpret them, establish new patterns, and make new predictions. What we call cycles are nothing more than certain types of patterns that we establish, which will continue to change in the future. I think it's entirely possible that no new highs will be reached for one or two cycles, which would disprove the cycle patterns that we have projected.

In short, I'm not sure if the 4-year cycle theory is already dead today, but I'm certain that at some point in the future it will be.

The 4-year cycle is not dead, at least for now. What were are seeing is just new realities creating new patterns just like you rightly said.

The mistake many people are making is trying to fit today's market into patterns that were common when Bitcoin was smaller and adoption was less mature.  As Bitcoin grows, so we have more factors influencing price.

The 4-year cycle certainly still has value, however, I just would not totally rely on it while making investment decisions.

[justdimin]

A lot of things have changed since then. Seeing the patterns deviating from the previous ones shouldn't be surprising. The previous cycles were completely driven by halving, there was no institutional impacts. The coming of ETFs and institutions have forced us to deviate from regular patterns because they only care about their allocation and not the cycle. This does not mean there's no longer four year cycle or we are getting impatient as Op concern is. The cycle was/is never a strategy for investment.

I do not completely disagree with you my friend but I just want you to be more specific in your claim to make the discussion easier to understand. In your opinion, we have shifted from the 4 year cycle to something else due to institutional involvement via the ETF approval, if I may ask, does this make us to shift from seeing the peak in the year after halving followed by a bear market the next year? Someone can still argue that the 4 year cycle is still in place using the fact that bitcoin made ATH in 2025 which was followed by a bear market that we are seeing now. This still conforms to the 4 years cycle of ATH of ..2013, 2017, 2021, 2025, 2029. Until this is broken completely, then we can say that the cycle have shifted to something else.

Yeap, you are completely right. We are still on the same path. We still had 2024 as halving year (and a bit of recovery from the 2022 bottom), and we had 2025 as the bull year, which is one year after the halving. And now we are having bear year, one year after the bull year. Same happens all the time and has not changed and the four year cycle is still strong.

So for that reason, we could safely say that if we are aiming at just calculating the four year cycle, we can safely say, 2028 will be halving and we will reach near 100k, and 2029 will be bull and we will reach above the ATH, and 2030 will be the bear year. That is not really hard to predict, and if we "know" this, then we could easily make a calculation and invest accordingly to profit as maximum as possible.