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Author Topic: Prediction markets, insider information, and... Trump!  (Read 644 times)
davis196
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July 31, 2026, 12:03:05 PM
 #61

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Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

Is this a rhetorical question? It's obvious that Trump wants to sell insider information. The big question here is, why is the American Supreme Court doing nothing? What are they waiting for? I can assume that Trump has immunity when it comes to legal actions against him, so I'm pretty sure that he will get sued for insider trading, after his presidential mandate ends. This is the most blatant attempt of selling insider information I've ever seen. Trump had increased his wealth a lot after becoming a president of the US. He's really greedy and wants to make as such money as possible before his presidency ends.

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July 31, 2026, 12:17:07 PM
 #62

Yes, I agree that many people try to take advantage of this, but they do so very cautiously, not publicly, and... out of fear of getting into serious trouble, facing lawsuits, huge fines, and reputational damage.
Trump has decided that he is "God on Earth" and "the most cunning", and that this will allow him to legally profit from illegal activities. We’ll see what happens after the election and a potential shift in the balance of power in U.S. politics. 
Trump might end up not making so much from his subscription. I assume this because only a few people might subscribe to this $100,000 package and use the information to make more money. They would just set up a platform where they share the insider information they get from Trump posts and redistribute it to others for a fee. Set up a social media platform where people can subscribe and pay a fee to get access to PONTUS posts. So third parties or middlemen will end up making more money.

Trump is really setting several morally wrong precedents as US president.


Trump is driven by money and power; that is the meaning of his life.
And he never misses an opportunity to make money anywhere, especially where the returns are very high. But there are situations where his greed and corruption aren’t enough, for example, insider trading, through which his family and close associates have already made billions, but the "scheme" turned out to be under threat. As you know, insider trading is a criminal offense in the U.S. that carries very severe penalties. So Trump’s advisors came up with a model where insider trading becomes a "perfectly legal activity". Let’s see how the judicial system, and those who understand the nature of Trump’s actions, will react next.


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Satofan44
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July 31, 2026, 12:42:15 PM
 #63

The fact is that what Trump wants to implement is not about prediction markets; it is, in essence, legalized corruption through "exclusive access" to critically important information, the use of which for personal gain could allow one to earn enormous sums "without lifting a finger", simply by lining the pockets of certain individuals-what is known as a "bribe".
Stop repeating this nonsense, I explained to you that this already exists and is completely legal. You are extremely biased against Trump, like many Islamic extremist retards from Iran on this forum. Either you are against low-latency news feeds or you are not, but if you are then you have to go after all of the ones that exist. Trump's news feed will be the most recent one in a long list of established news feeds of this kind, he should be the last person you are criticizing. Furthermore, it seems that a lot of people here are dirt port whether from Ukraine, Russia, or other 3rd world shitholes and they have a huge issue with envy regarding to the business dealings of others. Maybe you should instead look at your defense industry oligarchs that are enjoying the death of all the people in the battlefield before you focus on Trump and prediction markets.  Roll Eyes
Why is it nonsense? It’s normal for you to have your own opinion. I have mine, and I have my arguments Smiley
Before accusing me of "repeating nonsense", you should look at the situation not just from the perspective of this specific case, but consider the bigger picture of Trump’s behavior.  I’ve written this more than once: in my personal opinion, Trump has decided that the U.S. presidency grants him the United States as a kind of "private business", or that he perceives the presidency as the transfer of the United States for his personal use, and as a "businessman", he uses it for his own commercial gain, just like a private business. However, he’s run up against the fact that, as it turns out, there are legislative and judicial branches in the U.S., and this is preventing him from "doing business". But Trump is VERY greedy when it comes to money, and knowing his past, I’ve come to the conclusion that this "project" is a symbiosis of power, corruption, and business. I don’t see any signs of stupidity in this.
Especially since we already know of many examples where people in Trump’s inner circle, just hours or days before he made certain statements, "coincidentally" took steps that "coincidentally" brought them massive profits within hours or days.
Not when we are talking about legal definitions of terms, there is no place for opinions. This is a distinction which, if a person fails, shows that they are usually full of nonsense and false opinions. You need to know where the difference between what is factual, what is definite and what is an opinion. The claims that this is insider information is false, it does not fit the legal definition of that. Then I demonstrated to you that these things already exist, and are widely used. Furthermore, I argued how this kind of setup is the exact opposite of insider information -- and it would never work as insider information. Someone who is reasonable and willing to listen would then accept that they were wrong, and say something like "that sounds correct, it is not insider information but it is still unethical or I still don't like it for whatever reason". If you just refuse or ignore information that factually disproves your claims or just shove it under "it is your opinion" that can only show two things:
1. You are not arguing in good faith, OR
2. You are stupid (like many users here).

Therefore, think and act properly. This is not a subjective question such as "is the U.S. a good country" which can be argued subjectively using objective data from both perspectives. What Trump is doing here, does not fit the definition of insider information as it is legally defined.

As far as the "bigger picture" is concerned: First, it still does not change anything about this being perfectly legal. Second, what about it? Do you think that I do not agree with that? Do you think that other presidents have not done this, I mean almost all of them? If you do think that this is a rare thing, then you are just naive. Trump is just a ruthless, direct, transparent person compared to what came before him. You are supposed to see this as a lesson of what almost all of them doing all the time, instead many weaklings especially in recent times the Iranian goat-fuckers get upset at him like little children. When someone says look at all the money Trump is earning with crypto or some shit like ethics rules in the CLARITY ACT, you forget that Pelosi and her colleagues made much more collectively and in many cases there are no ethics rules for them of any kind. If you can easily be manipulated to be hyperfocused on a single symptom of the system especially a single person, then YOU are missing the big picture.

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July 31, 2026, 12:45:04 PM
 #64

Quote
Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

Is this a rhetorical question? It's obvious that Trump wants to sell insider information. The big question here is, why is the American Supreme Court doing nothing? What are they waiting for? I can assume that Trump has immunity when it comes to legal actions against him, so I'm pretty sure that he will get sued for insider trading, after his presidential mandate ends. This is the most blatant attempt of selling insider information I've ever seen. Trump had increased his wealth a lot after becoming a president of the US. He's really greedy and wants to make as such money as possible before his presidency ends.
I wouldn’t blame anyone for that because no matter how pure they seems to be or even seems to sound there is always an ulterior motives towards that because non of them would want to rule or lead without even benefiting from their tenure.
That is why, even though the American tried to be as snow as white we can’t compared that to that of the Africans because they throughly being engulfed by greed and wanting everything for themselves.


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Filicius
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July 31, 2026, 02:06:52 PM
 #65

Quote
Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

Is this a rhetorical question? It's obvious that Trump wants to sell insider information. The big question here is, why is the American Supreme Court doing nothing? What are they waiting for? I can assume that Trump has immunity when it comes to legal actions against him, so I'm pretty sure that he will get sued for insider trading, after his presidential mandate ends. This is the most blatant attempt of selling insider information I've ever seen. Trump had increased his wealth a lot after becoming a president of the US. He's really greedy and wants to make as such money as possible before his presidency ends.
I wouldn’t blame anyone for that because no matter how pure they seems to be or even seems to sound there is always an ulterior motives towards that because non of them would want to rule or lead without even benefiting from their tenure.
That is why, even though the American tried to be as snow as white we can’t compared that to that of the Africans because they throughly being engulfed by greed and wanting everything for themselves.

Yes, but precisely the United States of America, as the world's leading power (yet?) and precisely because it is so, should serve as an example to the rest of the nations. We all know that in banana republics corruption is carried out in a blatant way, but it is not what people expect from large nations to maintain hope.

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eisen33
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July 31, 2026, 02:52:07 PM
 #66


I wouldn’t blame anyone for that because no matter how pure they seems to be or even seems to sound there is always an ulterior motives towards that because non of them would want to rule or lead without even benefiting from their tenure.
That is why, even though the American tried to be as snow as white we can’t compared that to that of the Africans because they throughly being engulfed by greed and wanting everything for themselves.

They already have the benefits of government employment, higher pensions, lower utility bills, but that's not enough for them, they want much more. And when you associate in elite circles, you have a much better chance of getting insider information, and then everything depends on whether you can resist exploiting it. I think honest people are very few there, and the system is designed in such a way that there will always be loopholes that can be exploited to get more money if you're close to the elite.

R


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dzonikg28
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Today at 09:15:49 AM
 #67

Not when we are talking about legal definitions of terms, there is no place for opinions. This is a distinction which, if a person fails, shows that they are usually full of nonsense and false opinions. You need to know where the difference between what is factual, what is definite and what is an opinion. The claims that this is insider information is false, it does not fit the legal definition of that. Then I demonstrated to you that these things already exist, and are widely used. Furthermore, I argued how this kind of setup is the exact opposite of insider information -- and it would never work as insider information. Someone who is reasonable and willing to listen would then accept that they were wrong, and say something like "that sounds correct, it is not insider information but it is still unethical or I still don't like it for whatever reason". If you just refuse or ignore information that factually disproves your claims or just shove it under "it is your opinion" that can only show two things:
1. You are not arguing in good faith, OR
2. You are stupid (like many users here).

Therefore, think and act properly. This is not a subjective question such as "is the U.S. a good country" which can be argued subjectively using objective data from both perspectives. What Trump is doing here, does not fit the definition of insider information as it is legally defined.

As far as the "bigger picture" is concerned: First, it still does not change anything about this being perfectly legal. Second, what about it? Do you think that I do not agree with that? Do you think that other presidents have not done this, I mean almost all of them? If you do think that this is a rare thing, then you are just naive. Trump is just a ruthless, direct, transparent person compared to what came before him. You are supposed to see this as a lesson of what almost all of them doing all the time, instead many weaklings especially in recent times the Iranian goat-fuckers get upset at him like little children. When someone says look at all the money Trump is earning with crypto or some shit like ethics rules in the CLARITY ACT, you forget that Pelosi and her colleagues made much more collectively and in many cases there are no ethics rules for them of any kind. If you can easily be manipulated to be hyperfocused on a single symptom of the system especially a single person, then YOU are missing the big picture.

I don't agree with everything satofan44 is saying, but I think this is neither his goal to convince everyone nor does it make any sense to always agree on everything.  Cool

I would like to add a few things to the discussion though. satofan44 is right that by legal definition, selling early access to most of the things the president has to say, doesn't automatically constitute insider information abuse. But in my opinion satofan44 can't predict whether there will be such an abuse in the future. However, it will be very easy for Trump to keep dancing on that fine line between insider information abuse and expression of opinion as he is absolutely entitled to express his "opinion". I get that many here don't understand this fine distinction because they assume that whatever the president says and grants early access to, must be insider information, and that is just wrong as, how satofan44 explained, what really counts is the legal definition.

For example, if Trump says "after this weekend I think I am going to blow up Iran", gives early access and banks go long on oil, and then on Tuesday says "I heard they reached out to us, not gonna blow them up", it doesn't matter whether his words have the power to move markets, there is literally no way to legally attack him for that regardless of granting paid early access to that piece of information. He also does probably not give early access selectively to what he posts, but to every post he makes. That makes it even harder to attack him. It is just that he sells a time advantage to Social Truth users. Pretty strong business move if you think about it. A massive pull factor to generate new signups for his platform besides pushing his revenue through the roof. And that entails many more opportunities for him in many other areas.

Now satofan44 also mentioned that other presidents have done the same and I am surprised that a lot of people seem to have missed one of the most questionable pardons ever granted that just happened not too long ago and is a big topic in congress right now: Dr. Fauci was granted a preemptive pardon by Biden for 2014 till 2025. Everyone who saw Fauci answering questions in the congressional hearing, knows what a shit show it was when he invoked fifth amendment a few hundred times. Pardons are standard. Using insider information without getting caught is standard. Abusing presidential power or former presidential status to increase income is standard. There are many standards that apply to all of them equally, but indeed, Trump is taking transparency about it to a whole different level. He just doesn't hide what others (if possible) preferred to be hidden. 

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