Prediction markets, insider information, and... Trump!

[meser#]

Politics and insider  trading tend to go hand in hand
It does not matter who the leader is there will always be insider trading in politics

This is the truth but it seems some people are too emotional to admit it. Maybe their hatred for Donald Trump or his policies might be what is beclouding their sense of judgement. No doubt Trump is a businessman that knows how to use his powers to manipulate the market but for this one, what he is doing is not new and totally not against the law else his advisers would have discouraged him. Nevertheless, there is no denying that Trump is doing this primarily to make some money.

Yes, it’s true—there isn't a single politician who doesn't do this—but what Trump did is hardly right. What does it even mean to provide advance notice for a $100,000 monthly fee? That is tantamount to saying, "I can manipulate anything." They might as well just team up with big corporations and rob people blind.
It would be better if Trump just asked everyone in the world for a dollar instead of doing this.
This just goes to show that a businessman doesn't make a good politician.

[Satofan44]

I had made a thread about this here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5583649.0

Basically we have to consider that the whole concept of a prediction market is fundamentally about monetizing the insider activity and knowledge.
Without insider knowledge there's no reason to put money there as an investment as it's just gambling and not a calculated risk.

So nobody should be surprised the person who hired the supreme court to get total immunity would monetize it. It's literally the highest degree of capitalism. Good luck to polymarket trying to ban the literal president of the USA. It would be extremely funny if they tried though.

That is nonsense, anything can be calculated risk including gambling. Just because you are not able to make good predictions on any kind of event, that does not mean that something purely exists for "monetizing insider activity and knowledge". The bad player blaming the game for being bad at it is one of the most iconic examples of modernity's idiocy -- in a just world, such a player would be swiftly removed from the public platform. Whether someone has or has not insider knowledge and is able to monetize it has nothing to do with the other players who are participating in prediction markets. Their knowledge does not have any effect on you unless you are basing your decisions primarily or in support of what others are currently betting on -- which again, is a grave error on the side of the player.

If you are good at predictions, you can win along the insiders. They present no obstacle to you. Stop with the 3rd world envy because you are poor and other people have money, it does you no good. 

[DrBeer]

Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

We understand that currently there are various prediction market scandals involving insider information, we understand that the situation that has occurred recently has caused many parties to comment negatively on prediction markets, In fact, what I know is that currently the federal authorities have also initiated investigations into various cases that occurred, such as around Donald Trump, who took advantage of access to gamble for personal gain.

As I know the case of the Teleprompter Operator Case, maybe here there is a topic created by someone who won some money on the Kalshi platform, For this reason, with the involvement of a circle of people including Donald Trump himself, he actually made various bad comments about prediction market sites, that's the way the online world is, it's hard to believe.

The fact is that what Trump wants to implement is not about prediction markets; it is, in essence, legalized corruption through "exclusive access" to critically important information, the use of which for personal gain could allow one to earn enormous sums "without lifting a finger", simply by lining the pockets of certain individuals-what is known as a "bribe".

[Maslate]

Would that really be the meaning of it?

I mean, he is the president, so he knows that using insider information is illegal. If he is doing that and still getting away with it, then it would suggest selective justice, which does not make sense to me. He should be setting an example, not be the one doing something illegal just to benefit himself.

This is how I see it: if he were involved in corruption, I do not think he would do it in such an obvious way. He would not even need to. With access to information that is not yet public, he could influence the Bitcoin market and potentially make millions from insider knowledge without making it so obvious.

[Satofan44]

The fact is that what Trump wants to implement is not about prediction markets; it is, in essence, legalized corruption through "exclusive access" to critically important information, the use of which for personal gain could allow one to earn enormous sums "without lifting a finger", simply by lining the pockets of certain individuals-what is known as a "bribe".

Stop repeating this nonsense, I explained to you that this already exists and is completely legal. You are extremely biased against Trump, like many Islamic extremist retards from Iran on this forum. Either you are against low-latency news feeds or you are not, but if you are then you have to go after all of the ones that exist. Trump's news feed will be the most recent one in a long list of established news feeds of this kind, he should be the last person you are criticizing. Furthermore, it seems that a lot of people here are dirt port whether from Ukraine, Russia, or other 3rd world shitholes and they have a huge issue with envy regarding to the business dealings of others. Maybe you should instead look at your defense industry oligarchs that are enjoying the death of all the people in the battlefield before you focus on Trump and prediction markets.  

Would that really be the meaning of it?

I mean, he is the president, so he knows that using insider information is illegal. If he is doing that and still getting away with it, then it would suggest selective justice, which does not make sense to me. He should be setting an example, not be the one doing something illegal just to benefit himself.

I already explained it several ways across many posts. Instead of writing another useless reply in this thread, read the factual information that I have provided:

• Not insider information.
• Not corruption.
• Nothing new, already exists and common.

This is how I see it: if he were involved in corruption, I do not think he would do it in such an obvious way. He would not even need to. With access to information that is not yet public, he could influence the Bitcoin market and potentially make millions from insider knowledge without making it so obvious.

This part is correct. Literally every politician that someone supports here but is against Trump is doing much worse things covertly, especially in European countries. It is ironic and baffling how stupid the people who are criticizing Trump are. Clean up your own house first, useless European shitholes.
What is presented here is perfectly legal, nothing will happen to Trump. Enough of the envy because you are dirt poor and can't afford such financial tools. Whether someone will commit a crime to use insider information illegally on prediction markets or in other ways has nothing to do with Trump, his news-feed or anything provided here.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

Why are some taking this personal because they dislike Trump.

Have been seeing a lot of contrary opinions, but we cannot establish any facts on whether Trump is aware of some of these things or not, as this is more of his teleporter issue, I'm not in support of prediction market in any way but with the way people are playing it shows that they could also be a kind of loophole the entire process, but you cannot also establish any fact that this is how it was being done and those that take advantage of this at the same time, this is why you can discover that not or Gambler do consider playing prediction market.

[xenomorfo]

Yes, it?s true?there isn't a single politician who doesn't do this?but what Trump did is hardly right. What does it even mean to provide advance notice for a $100,000 monthly fee? That is tantamount to saying, "I can manipulate anything." They might as well just team up with big corporations and rob people blind.
It would be better if Trump just asked everyone in the world for a dollar instead of doing this.
This just goes to show that a businessman doesn't make a good politician.

a disgusting thing, worthy of a pedophile pig which he and the other dirty pigs of his friends were in after all
a nice bunch of pigs

Now getting back to the topic, in your opinion is it difficult to use Polymarket, does anyone have an easy, fool-proof guide? I'm curious

[DrBeer]

The fact is that what Trump wants to implement is not about prediction markets; it is, in essence, legalized corruption through "exclusive access" to critically important information, the use of which for personal gain could allow one to earn enormous sums "without lifting a finger", simply by lining the pockets of certain individuals-what is known as a "bribe".

Stop repeating this nonsense, I explained to you that this already exists and is completely legal. You are extremely biased against Trump, like many Islamic extremist retards from Iran on this forum. Either you are against low-latency news feeds or you are not, but if you are then you have to go after all of the ones that exist. Trump's news feed will be the most recent one in a long list of established news feeds of this kind, he should be the last person you are criticizing. Furthermore, it seems that a lot of people here are dirt port whether from Ukraine, Russia, or other 3rd world shitholes and they have a huge issue with envy regarding to the business dealings of others. Maybe you should instead look at your defense industry oligarchs that are enjoying the death of all the people in the battlefield before you focus on Trump and prediction markets.  

Why is it nonsense? It’s normal for you to have your own opinion. I have mine, and I have my arguments
Before accusing me of "repeating nonsense", you should look at the situation not just from the perspective of this specific case, but consider the bigger picture of Trump’s behavior.  I’ve written this more than once: in my personal opinion, Trump has decided that the U.S. presidency grants him the United States as a kind of "private business", or that he perceives the presidency as the transfer of the United States for his personal use, and as a "businessman", he uses it for his own commercial gain, just like a private business. However, he’s run up against the fact that, as it turns out, there are legislative and judicial branches in the U.S., and this is preventing him from "doing business". But Trump is VERY greedy when it comes to money, and knowing his past, I’ve come to the conclusion that this "project" is a symbiosis of power, corruption, and business. I don’t see any signs of stupidity in this.
Especially since we already know of many examples where people in Trump’s inner circle, just hours or days before he made certain statements, "coincidentally" took steps that "coincidentally" brought them massive profits within hours or days.