Prediction markets, insider information, and... Trump!

[DrBeer]

People here often talk a lot about prediction markets, and stories frequently "surface" about insider information that gives a huge advantage in such bets. Over the past year, we’ve often seen stories about people directly or indirectly connected to Trump and his inner circle, and there’s been plenty of discussion on this topic here.
Let’s not get into politics, but rather return to the topic of predictions and methods for obtaining information to improve the effectiveness of betting in these markets.
Today I came across an interesting news story about Trump’s new "business plan".
Take a look at the "brilliance" of this solution:
"Trump wants to sell early access to his posts for $100,000 a month.
As a reminder, Trump Media has introduced a paid API for Truth Social, through which banks, funds, and traders will be able to receive posts from the platform a few seconds before everyone else.
The service will include posts from the 10 largest Truth Social accounts, including Donald Trump’s. The company expects that such access will be in demand among market participants who trade on news.
The price tag is $100,000 a month".

Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

[nikola22]

selling early access to information is a clear example of corruption using the president's role. it would be interesting to hear from American regulators but there's a suspicion they're too afraid to go against Trump and will remain silent. this isn't the first example and everyone remembers how the red card for a US national team player at the World Cup was overturned after Trump's intervention.

as far as I remember, the US passed the PREDICT Act which prohibits government employees from trading and betting on prediction market platforms. but the temptation is too great and loopholes can be found, such as trading through acquaintances or friends.

[Odusko]

selling early access to information is a clear example of corruption using the president's role. it would be interesting to hear from American regulators but there's a suspicion they're too afraid to go against Trump and will remain silent. this isn't the first example and everyone remembers how the red card for a US national team player at the World Cup was overturned after Trump's intervention.

as far as I remember, the US passed the PREDICT Act which prohibits government employees from trading and betting on prediction market platforms. but the temptation is too great and loopholes can be found, such as trading through acquaintances or friends.

Trump himself may not be aware of the corruption within his officials and this kind of corruption is a low level tier corruption although the US should have a punishment for such offenders because insider's participation is generally fraud that get the perpetrator jail sentence.
US predictions market os one of the most regulated globally so soon we should see some possible sentences for the officials who use classified information to bet on events.

[Alphakilo]

People here often talk a lot about prediction markets, and stories frequently "surface" about insider information that gives a huge advantage in such bets. Over the past year, we’ve often seen stories about people directly or indirectly connected to Trump and his inner circle, and there’s been plenty of discussion on this topic here.
Let’s not get into politics, but rather return to the topic of predictions and methods for obtaining information to improve the effectiveness of betting in these markets.
Today I came across an interesting news story about Trump’s new "business plan".
Take a look at the "brilliance" of this solution:
"Trump wants to sell early access to his posts for $100,000 a month.
As a reminder, Trump Media has introduced a paid API for Truth Social, through which banks, funds, and traders will be able to receive posts from the platform a few seconds before everyone else.
The service will include posts from the 10 largest Truth Social accounts, including Donald Trump’s. The company expects that such access will be in demand among market participants who trade on news.
The price tag is $100,000 a month".

Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

I think this is just a superpower to those who want to make more money on the predictions market because having access to this API for someone who bets using Kalshi or the predictions market is a sure way to cash out big time and there's a connection between Trump's personal interest and the stall of the Clarity Act in the present.

[knuckey]

The direction is indeed to legalize it but make it subtle so that it is disguised, but with a price like that I don't think it's worth it because it's impossible to bet only $50k, and it has to be more than $100k to recover the capital spent, not to mention if the prediction fails because sometimes there will always be errors in how the system works.

[nelson4lov]

Trump himself may not be aware of the corruption within his officials and this kind of corruption is a low level tier corruption although the US should have a punishment for such offenders because insider's participation is generally fraud that get the perpetrator jail sentence.
US predictions market os one of the most regulated globally so soon we should see some possible sentences for the officials who use classified information to bet on events.

Lol, this is exactly what people said when TRUMP token was launched. As it turned out, he is fully aware. Don't forget he's also the same man that hosted a private dinner with the top holders of the token. Imo, everything done by Trump media like the World Liberty finance. I think Trump and his team know that this is their last opportunity to extract which is why they're doing it with full force. The amount of insider trading that has happened since Trump became president is just too much.

[blockman]

Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

If this is real, then it's true that this is big money flowing to the market through having that insider. Let's see how this attempt goes when there's so much money just for the insider and I think that the biggest corporations and traders who are very much active in the market will afford this. Institutions that would like to take advantage from it will have the firsthand information that they've paid for. I don't know why Trump is doing this or he's got the idea of what his PR team does but I guess that he does. Prediction markets are now with insiders and they're the ones who'll become rich.

[Hispo]

Trump himself may not be aware of the corruption within his officials and this kind of corruption is a low level tier corruption although the US should have a punishment for such offenders because insider's participation is generally fraud that get the perpetrator jail sentence.
US predictions market os one of the most regulated globally so soon we should see some possible sentences for the officials who use classified information to bet on events.

Lol, this is exactly what people said when TRUMP token was launched. As it turned out, he is fully aware. Don't forget he's also the same man that hosted a private dinner with the top holders of the token. Imo, everything done by Trump media like the World Liberty finance. I think Trump and his team know that this is their last opportunity to extract which is why they're doing it with full force. The amount of insider trading that has happened since Trump became president is just too much.

It is also worth noticing how Trump token was launched exactly after Trump secured his second term as the president of the United States. He and his team knew he was not going to be able to capitalize from his own token and his political power as long as he was not the elected president of the USA.

I believe there is much insider information and also a lot of grey areas which are getting exploited by him and his family to get a lot of money.

If there is a family who have used the presidency in order to create wealth for themselves, that would be the Trump family. I have no doubt about that.

[DrBeer]

People here often talk a lot about prediction markets, and stories frequently "surface" about insider information that gives a huge advantage in such bets. Over the past year, we’ve often seen stories about people directly or indirectly connected to Trump and his inner circle, and there’s been plenty of discussion on this topic here.
Let’s not get into politics, but rather return to the topic of predictions and methods for obtaining information to improve the effectiveness of betting in these markets.
Today I came across an interesting news story about Trump’s new "business plan".
Take a look at the "brilliance" of this solution:
"Trump wants to sell early access to his posts for $100,000 a month.
As a reminder, Trump Media has introduced a paid API for Truth Social, through which banks, funds, and traders will be able to receive posts from the platform a few seconds before everyone else.
The service will include posts from the 10 largest Truth Social accounts, including Donald Trump’s. The company expects that such access will be in demand among market participants who trade on news.
The price tag is $100,000 a month".

Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

I think this is just a superpower to those who want to make more money on the predictions market because having access to this API for someone who bets using Kalshi or the predictions market is a sure way to cash out big time and there's a connection between Trump's personal interest and the stall of the Clarity Act in the present.

Let me remind you-in the U.S., insider trading or the use of non-public information for personal gain is a crime. And this decision by Trump is, in fact, the sale of insider information by subscription.
P.S. By the way, here’s some great news showing that U.S. legislation is not subject to direct interference from Trump: Federal Judge Kathleen Williams (U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida) has annulled the controversial deal struck between the Donald Trump administration and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). This agreement not only granted Trump immunity from tax audits but also provided for the creation of a fund totaling nearly $1.8 billion for his supporters who claimed to be victims of "political persecution".

[Oasisman]

I think this is just a superpower to those who want to make more money on the predictions market because having access to this API for someone who bets using Kalshi or the predictions market is a sure way to cash out big time and there's a connection between Trump's personal interest and the stall of the Clarity Act in the present.

Let me remind you-in the U.S., insider trading or the use of non-public information for personal gain is a crime. And this decision by Trump is, in fact, the sale of insider information by subscription.

This is in fact an insider trading, but they found an idea how to legalize it, because of the reason that the information are still meant to go public a few seconds after the subscribers.
This will definitely create inequality. A few seconds of advance information can be very valuable in the modern market.
This is one of the classic example of why the rich become even more richer, and the average will need to go through seven hells before they get the chance to become rich.

[Porfirii]

That is totally contrary to the principle of net neutrality, that it was a win that was already won a decade ago, and that from what it seems now those who are against said right are back to the charge. If this is approved, it opens the door not only to a clear advantage in prediction markets for those who have more means, but also to an inequality in access to information whose only result will be to further widen the gap between those who can afford to pay the price and those who cannot.

[Satofan44]

Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

It does not seem like you or most users here know even what is insider information. I've talked about the illusion of "understanding" words because they look simple, and this is a laziness shortcut that many people will take whereas they actually don't understand what most words mean. In most countries of the world, insider information has a very specific meaning: it would be material disclosure of non-public information that is obtained through a breach of duty or other prohibited means. Simply receiving information a few seconds before others does not automatically meet that definition.

Details are still pending so there is some room for speculation and we will see exactly in practice what it is, but from what it seems now this is more like low-latency news feed which is not a new concept. This is common in financial markets where entities will pay for speed, exchanges, news organizations, companies even spend on fiber-optic infrastructure for millisecond advantages. So while selling early access to information is common in financial markets it can be sometimes controversial. In the case of a public official monetizing this, it would be a grey area in terms of ethics and policy. Whether it is illegal insider information or a legal low-latency news feed will depend whether any securities or ethics rules are implicated. Therefore, wait before you judge it as something negative.

That is totally contrary to the principle of net neutrality, that it was a win that was already won a decade ago, and that from what it seems now those who are against said right are back to the charge. If this is approved, it opens the door not only to a clear advantage in prediction markets for those who have more means, but also to an inequality in access to information whose only result will be to further widen the gap between those who can afford to pay the price and those who cannot.

Net neutrality has literally nothing to do with this, stop hallucinating with bullshit.

[danherbias07]

More bad news for the prediction markets.

If this is real, then there would be no risk in betting on those kinds of lines anymore. It's a cheat code being sold at a high price. Obviously, it will make Trump richer, and those who can afford it, which is probably the rich, too.
I mean, imagine buying that and only betting a few dollars. It will be a waste. I bet anyone who would buy it will instantly bet the same price as the cheat code, so that they will get their ROI fast. Then, if it works, that's when the money-making machine will come. This is absurd.

[Italian Panic]

As a reminder, Trump Media has introduced a paid API for Truth Social, through which banks, funds, and traders will be able to receive posts from the platform a few seconds before everyone else.
The service will include posts from the 10 largest Truth Social accounts, including Donald Trump’s. The company expects that such access will be in demand among market participants who trade on news.
The price tag is $100,000 a month".

Prediction markets are certainly a new gold mine for those with insider information, and I must say that they sometimes pay out really well. A new frontier in online betting. Trump is making the most of his term in office, so he could attract a huge number of subscribers. After all, for those who have such sums to spare, it’s not really that much, with a couple of bets on prediction markets, they could recoup the amount in just two rounds and everything after that would be pure profit. Not bad, and Trump would make a fortune using the social media platforms he owns, which he’s been forced to build up due to the various bans he’s faced over the years. If he finds someone willing to pay him, good for him, I’d do the same.

[shinratensei_]

What the hell is this? This sounds like a insider trading subscription. So trump and his circle wants to normalize people to buy the access to the source of corruption. Trump wants to tell the world if he's a blatant grifters.
Honestly, this is no longer about insider trading, this is corruption. 

[Satofan44]

More bad news for the prediction markets.

If this is real, then there would be no risk in betting on those kinds of lines anymore. It's a cheat code being sold at a high price. Obviously, it will make Trump richer, and those who can afford it, which is probably the rich, too.
I mean, imagine buying that and only betting a few dollars. It will be a waste. I bet anyone who would buy it will instantly bet the same price as the cheat code, so that they will get their ROI fast. Then, if it works, that's when the money-making machine will come. This is absurd.

To be able to use low latency news in an effective way you do not need prediction markets at all. Eligible investors have access to 1000x leverage in high liquidity markets, they can make a lot of money simply by having access to some information before others even just a few milliseconds before them. What Trump is doing here is a very common thing in the financial world, and yet when he does it transparently in a way that everyone can see it random people complain -- meanwhile countless companies, entities and individuals do it in hidden ways and you are completely quiet. This is what happens when you are brainwashed by propaganda and only respond to what you are being told, when in fact the world is 100 times worse outside of the situation that you are being presented.

What the hell is this? This sounds like a insider trading subscription. So trump and his circle wants to normalize people to buy the access to the source of corruption. Trump wants to tell the world if he's a blatant grifters.
Honestly, this is no longer about insider trading, this is corruption. 

You didn't read a single thing in this thread besides the title, don't be a 3rd world shitposter. This has nothing to do with insider information nor corruption assuming that he does not break any regulations and rules which I have briefly mentioned.

[Darker45]

More bad news for the prediction markets.

The more reason they need to trim down on what markets to offer for prediction. There must be a stricter system in place to moderate or screen which ones should be given the greenlight for release. Otherwise, they'd look ridiculous offering market lines that are just perceived as cash cows of those who can afford to buy subscription to insider information. Sooner or later it might create the impression that prediction market is a joke since some bettors have undue advantage, that they're betting with prior knowledge of the results.

[Hatchy]

As wild as this idea sounds, the frustrating reality is that this business plan would probably actually work. Weve already seen how much of a market manipulator, trump has been recently. He drops a short post on Truth Social, and within minutes, the financial markets react with massive swings. Every single update has the power to shift millions of dollars.If they actually implement this paid API, it feels incredibly wrong and fundamentally unfair. This kind of information already causes enough chaos and volatility in the markets as it is. Selling a multi second head start to wealthy funds and institutional traders for $100,000 a month basically institutionalises market manipulation. It creates a two tiered system where the financial markets are openly rigged, and everyday retail investors are the ones who will end up paying the price.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

This is bad, I'm not only thinking about it in the aspect of gambling but it also concerns financial markets and its actors (traders), where I actually began to think that one day Trump might come up with this idea was when he made a statement on live, saying that, he knows that any statement they make, it will either cause the market to fly or crawl. Based on that statement, I thought to myself that, "what if he already has his circles of friends or partners who buys early information from him even before he tweets" Is a crime, yea, but what can they not do secretly and cover the tracks for years. This so-called business idea is not something that should be approved.

[YOSHIE]

Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

We understand that currently there are various prediction market scandals involving insider information, we understand that the situation that has occurred recently has caused many parties to comment negatively on prediction markets, In fact, what I know is that currently the federal authorities have also initiated investigations into various cases that occurred, such as around Donald Trump, who took advantage of access to gamble for personal gain.

As I know the case of the Teleprompter Operator Case, maybe here there is a topic created by someone who won some money on the Kalshi platform, For this reason, with the involvement of a circle of people including Donald Trump himself, he actually made various bad comments about prediction market sites, that's the way the online world is, it's hard to believe.