Prediction markets, insider information, and... Trump!

[DrBeer]

Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

It does not seem like you or most users here know even what is insider information. I've talked about the illusion of "understanding" words because they look simple, and this is a laziness shortcut that many people will take whereas they actually don't understand what most words mean. In most countries of the world, insider information has a very specific meaning: it would be material disclosure of non-public information that is obtained through a breach of duty or other prohibited means. Simply receiving information a few seconds before others does not automatically meet that definition.

Details are still pending so there is some room for speculation and we will see exactly in practice what it is, but from what it seems now this is more like low-latency news feed which is not a new concept. This is common in financial markets where entities will pay for speed, exchanges, news organizations, companies even spend on fiber-optic infrastructure for millisecond advantages. So while selling early access to information is common in financial markets it can be sometimes controversial. In the case of a public official monetizing this, it would be a grey area in terms of ethics and policy. Whether it is illegal insider information or a legal low-latency news feed will depend whether any securities or ethics rules are implicated. Therefore, wait before you judge it as something negative.

That is totally contrary to the principle of net neutrality, that it was a win that was already won a decade ago, and that from what it seems now those who are against said right are back to the charge. If this is approved, it opens the door not only to a clear advantage in prediction markets for those who have more means, but also to an inequality in access to information whose only result will be to further widen the gap between those who can afford to pay the price and those who cannot.

Net neutrality has literally nothing to do with this, stop hallucinating with bullshit.

I’m going to have to disagree
We can even compare our interpretations of these words, as well as how we use them
For me, insider information is accurate, specific, and unpublished confidential information. It reaches people not just a second earlier, but significantly earlier, so that they have enough time to prepare thoroughly and take advantage of this information.
I might add that insider information often isn’t used to make money but rather to harm a competitor-something I’ve witnessed firsthand and even participated in while searching for that insider.

I’d love to hear your take on this, especially if it shows that my view is far from reality

When it comes to Trump and his new "project", everything fits together here! Over the course of weeks and months, critically important information may emerge-information that, for example, has already been approved but hasn’t yet been implemented or made public. The passage of new laws, military operations, and the like are examples of processes that take a long time to prepare and may remain confidential until the very last moment-which gives a huge advantage to those who receive this information well in advance! This is exactly what Trump intends to capitalize on by leveraging his position

[xenomorfo]

When it comes to Trump and his new "project", everything fits together here! Over the course of weeks and months, critically important information may emerge-information that, for example, has already been approved but hasn?t yet been implemented or made public. The passage of new laws, military operations, and the like are examples of processes that take a long time to prepare and may remain confidential until the very last moment-which gives a huge advantage to those who receive this information well in advance! This is exactly what Trump intends to capitalize on by leveraging his position

everything you said makes sense, from his point of view obviously since he is exploiting the fact that he is president of the united states of america
the question that comes to mind, he is doing it, therefore he can do it: but is it right to do it?
If he wasn't in that position would he have liked it? i do not believe.

[Bryan jessy]

He is trying to monetize early access to information, this is also a business strategy but I am curious on how possible it is for him to release a first hand information, but since it is something that requires a person to pay first before they get access to the information it might be limited due to the price at which the first hand information will be offered for, most persons might not be able to afford this information, I thought it was supposed to be a  confidential information that should not be traded this way, maybe because I not have actually heard about something similar before now.

[Satofan44]

Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

It does not seem like you or most users here know even what is insider information. I've talked about the illusion of "understanding" words because they look simple, and this is a laziness shortcut that many people will take whereas they actually don't understand what most words mean. In most countries of the world, insider information has a very specific meaning: it would be material disclosure of non-public information that is obtained through a breach of duty or other prohibited means. Simply receiving information a few seconds before others does not automatically meet that definition.

Details are still pending so there is some room for speculation and we will see exactly in practice what it is, but from what it seems now this is more like low-latency news feed which is not a new concept. This is common in financial markets where entities will pay for speed, exchanges, news organizations, companies even spend on fiber-optic infrastructure for millisecond advantages. So while selling early access to information is common in financial markets it can be sometimes controversial. In the case of a public official monetizing this, it would be a grey area in terms of ethics and policy. Whether it is illegal insider information or a legal low-latency news feed will depend whether any securities or ethics rules are implicated. Therefore, wait before you judge it as something negative.

That is totally contrary to the principle of net neutrality, that it was a win that was already won a decade ago, and that from what it seems now those who are against said right are back to the charge. If this is approved, it opens the door not only to a clear advantage in prediction markets for those who have more means, but also to an inequality in access to information whose only result will be to further widen the gap between those who can afford to pay the price and those who cannot.

Net neutrality has literally nothing to do with this, stop hallucinating with bullshit.

I’m going to have to disagree
We can even compare our interpretations of these words, as well as how we use them
For me, insider information is accurate, specific, and unpublished confidential information. It reaches people not just a second earlier, but significantly earlier, so that they have enough time to prepare thoroughly and take advantage of this information.
I might add that insider information often isn’t used to make money but rather to harm a competitor-something I’ve witnessed firsthand and even participated in while searching for that insider.

I’d love to hear your take on this, especially if it shows that my view is far from reality

When it comes to Trump and his new "project", everything fits together here! Over the course of weeks and months, critically important information may emerge-information that, for example, has already been approved but hasn’t yet been implemented or made public. The passage of new laws, military operations, and the like are examples of processes that take a long time to prepare and may remain confidential until the very last moment-which gives a huge advantage to those who receive this information well in advance! This is exactly what Trump intends to capitalize on by leveraging his position

You can't just disagree and make your own definition of "insider information", you are trying to use it in a colloquial sense whereas I gave you the legal meaning of what it is. The definition is clear and so are its implications, any subjective definitions of it have no relevance at all. And since people often talk about it in the context of legality and corruption, the only definition that matters is the legal definition.

What you are describing here is just accurate non-public information, and that is not insider information in the legal sense. To be specific: "insider information generally refers to material, non-public information obtained through a breach of fiduciary duty, a relationship of trust, or another prohibited means, particularly in relation to securities markets". So whether this information is confidential or not, or whether it reaches someone faster than others it is not sufficient to make it insider information -- actually, all information reaches some people faster than others. Literally all information that has every existed and will exist.

The examples with the length of time that you provide actually prove my point and where your comparison breaks down. Think about it rather simply. If something as significant as "Trump will declare war on X in Y months" was shared with hundreds or thousands of paying subscribers, it would be impossible to keep it confidential for more than a very short amount of time. The information would spread like crazy, intentionally and unintentionally. The more people are involved, the less plausible it becomes that it remains exclusive for any amount of time. So a network with hundreds or thousands of subscribers is the opposite of a traditional insider trading scheme, which depends on information remaining tightly controlled among a very small number of people -- the exact opposite of what Trump is doing. Furthermore, any kind of long-term insider trading scheme does not really work as the material loses its value as more people become aware of it. This is why actual insider trading involves limited number of entities acting before the information reaches the market, not thousands of subscribers sitting on some secret for weeks or even months.

As I said, what he is doing here most closely resembles a low-latency subscriber-only news feed -- not an insider trading network. This is completely legal, and common in financial markets. Just because you don't have experience with it, that does not mean that this is something new, corrupt, wrong, insider trading or whatever else other people will come up with.

[tread93]

People here often talk a lot about prediction markets, and stories frequently "surface" about insider information that gives a huge advantage in such bets. Over the past year, we’ve often seen stories about people directly or indirectly connected to Trump and his inner circle, and there’s been plenty of discussion on this topic here.
Let’s not get into politics, but rather return to the topic of predictions and methods for obtaining information to improve the effectiveness of betting in these markets.
Today I came across an interesting news story about Trump’s new "business plan".
Take a look at the "brilliance" of this solution:
"Trump wants to sell early access to his posts for $100,000 a month.
As a reminder, Trump Media has introduced a paid API for Truth Social, through which banks, funds, and traders will be able to receive posts from the platform a few seconds before everyone else.
The service will include posts from the 10 largest Truth Social accounts, including Donald Trump’s. The company expects that such access will be in demand among market participants who trade on news.
The price tag is $100,000 a month".

Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

It surely does and it’s crazy to think that this is all too possible. It seems like insider trading is like the new normal. With AI now and all these things distracting everyone and more people focused on other gay shit ya know it’s like becoming a thing. Idk it’s weird. Kind of brilliant on Trumps part though, he has a lot of good ideas for making obscene amounts of money with the power he wields. I am a huge fan of Trump and so idrgas what anyone else has to say about the matter. Dudes got nuts of steel. Financial markets have moved so much by his tweets and so I can see this becoming something hedge funds would want access to. But what’s stopping one fund from buying it and sharing all that info with their buddies?

[alani123]

I had made a thread about this here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5583649.0

Basically we have to consider that the whole concept of a prediction market is fundamentally about monetizing the insider activity and knowledge.
Without insider knowledge there's no reason to put money there as an investment as it's just gambling and not a calculated risk.

So nobody should be surprised the person who hired the supreme court to get total immunity would monetize it. It's literally the highest degree of capitalism. Good luck to polymarket trying to ban the literal president of the USA. It would be extremely funny if they tried though.

[jeremypwr]

Politics and insider  trading tend to go hand in hand
It does not matter who the leader is there will always be insider trading in politics

[red4slash]

Although we leave politics aside in this thread but still this would be offensive even if not explicitly. Because I see this as a double-edged sword scenario and a huge advantage to Trump and the administration in the USA itself, of course.

By providing services at fantastic prices this will make anyone can find out information that will be done by the 10 largest Truth Social accounts including Trump but for this prediction will not be too easy.
Currently the limit for those who work in several departments or companies is prohibited from betting on sensitive matters including economic issues or those related to some big things.
Although this will still provide benefits but still with this prohibition then those who subscribe will not be free to make prediction markets as material for profit.

[fullfitlarry]

Politics and insider  trading tend to go hand in hand
It does not matter who the leader is there will always be insider trading in politics

And as long as they can get away with it, they are going to do it blatantly regardless of the consequences. That's why they said the politics is dirty, even here in our country we have been barrage with so many negative news about politics.

Even the US with the rise of prediction markets, those so called "smart" people see it as a opportunity to make money thru insider information with the Trump administration and as I have said, even they are caught, this will continue to happen.

[cryptoaddictchie]

Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

Hey there OP is there a source for the context of thr topic? This is quite interesting and wanted to read more information off this.

First of all, if this is even real thats probably not allowed. Trump is a politician and having a payment based for an advance information is sounds like an inside trading. So what they will call it now legal when they are the one pulling it off? But a crime when someone got caught with it.

Theres a reason why Politics is a dirty job.

Even the US with the rise of prediction markets, those so called "smart" people see it as a opportunity to make money thru insider information with the Trump administration and as I have said, even they are caught, this will continue to happen.

Smart people when they can get away with it. But a normal joe caught with an inside info would be termed criminal. Tsk!

[TedMosby]

I think it will only become an "insider trading subscription" if the information is only shared with their paid subscribers and never made public. On your post #1, you stated that they will be able to receive posts from the platform a few seconds before "everyone" else. So here, it's actually public information. The public has access to the same exact information, just at a slightly different time, probably only a few seconds. CMIIW.

I think this is a common practice, and it happens with news on the Bloomberg Terminal. Many news outlets rely on Bloomberg. They are usually among the among fastest outlet to share macro related news, like geopolitics, wars, central bank activities, etc. The Bloomberg Terminal subscription is expensive too.

So here, I think he just cut one step, from Trump -> fast media like Bloomberg -> subscribers, to just Trump -> subscribers (who can now even include fast media like Bloomberg).

[Moreno233]

Politics and insider  trading tend to go hand in hand
It does not matter who the leader is there will always be insider trading in politics

This is the truth but it seems some people are too emotional to admit it. Maybe their hatred for Donald Trump or his policies might be what is beclouding their sense of judgement. No doubt Trump is a businessman that knows how to use his powers to manipulate the market but for this one, what he is doing is not new and totally not against the law else his advisers would have discouraged him. Nevertheless, there is no denying that Trump is doing this primarily to make some money.

[Julien_Olynpic]

I'd start by saying that most of Trump's posts aren't inside information. They're simply random phrases that pop into Trump's head and that he posts. These thoughts and phrases often contradict each other, and Trump himself tries to reconcile them, although it doesn't always work out. If Trump manages to sell early access to his posts a second before others, that's a major business achievement for Trump, comparable to selling air, lol. But companies can buy this with a bribe.

[SportbetOne]

Details are still pending so there is some room for speculation and we will see exactly in practice what it is, but from what it seems now this is more like a low-latency news feed, which is not a new concept. This is common in financial markets where entities pay for speed...

This is the distinction most people in this thread are missing. There is a significant legal difference between classic insider trading and paying for a high-speed, low-latency data feed, something Wall Street HFT firms have invested billions in over the past few decades. Technically, if the API is offered to anyone willing to pay, it is much harder to classify it as traditional insider trading, even if the $100,000 monthly fee effectively limits access to large institutional players.

That said, I agree with @Darker45 and @Hatchy that this could be extremely damaging for prediction markets such as Kalshi or Polymarket. If retail traders begin to believe they are consistently providing exit liquidity for algorithms that receive market-moving information a few seconds earlier, confidence in short-term political markets could erode quickly. To preserve their credibility, prediction platforms may eventually have to rethink, or even remove, markets that can be resolved almost entirely by ultra-low-latency news.

[Sticky Bomb]

Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

What I understand is that any crime committed by trump is legal and a business opportunity, while it remains a criminal activity if committed by someone else. Anyways, it is left for Prediction markets to be smart enough and block all predictions about his speech like 10 minutes before it is released and with that most people wouldn't find it profitable and the volume of subscription would decrease drastically as months goes by.

Again for random posts he makes, they might subscribe and setup an automation bot that runs and cancels out and keyword found in the posts as soon as it is received. Seems like prediction markets and newsflash guys are going to be his highest subscribers

[iv4n]

Well, this is not a classic insider thing... it's like in some gray zone. The financial markets are built around information advantages, and people pay for faster/premimum information... but here we have a president selling the advantage, and he is also the person who makes decisions. Is it ethical? Is it fair?

And Trump is known for his schemes... this is just another scheme for collecting money. He has been doing that for years on the highest possible level. And who is able to afford $100k per month for this?

[Junii]

Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

Maybe Trump knows this is his last term so he is trying to make the most of it like why stop at politics when you can start selling a few seconds for $100,000 a month. Well jokes apart but it feels like the new edge in betting or trading is no longer a better research  but a bigger bank account. Also just look at their marketing like they are calling it early access instead of insider information but if only the richest firms can afford it then the result is pretty much the same for everyone else. I guess market fairness is becoming another premium feature.

[yenerbatmaz]

They made a killing in crypto even before Trump was elected president. Once he took office, they raked in huge profits with coins like Trumpcoin, Melani, and JF Trump.
I am not at all surprised that something like this has come to light now.
Isn't this essentially an abuse of office? Doesn't it amount to selling insider information and colluding to manipulate the market?
Trump might just play the madman, but he is the worst president the US has ever had.
Wars have escalated since he took office. I hope he gets taught a lesson in the November midterm elections.
Because what he is trying to do here is far from acceptable.

[ultrloa]

Politics and insider  trading tend to go hand in hand
It does not matter who the leader is there will always be insider trading in politics

This is the truth but it seems some people are too emotional to admit it. Maybe their hatred for Donald Trump or his policies might be what is beclouding their sense of judgement. No doubt Trump is a businessman that knows how to use his powers to manipulate the market but for this one, what he is doing is not new and totally not against the law else his advisers would have discouraged him. Nevertheless, there is no denying that Trump is doing this primarily to make some money.

He maybe using his power and influence to benefit on this matter, but this is not actually unique case and not only happening in his term. Because every administration has their own ways to find some things that they can take advantage on.

But the real issue here actually is that there are people let their emotions hit them hard for disliking or hating Trump, also his behavior. Since for what I see this is common action in politics.

If people don't want to deal with those manipulative act they have done, its better not to listen each statements he release.

[purple_sparkles]

Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

Maybe Trump knows this is his last term so he is trying to make the most of it like why stop at politics when you can start selling a few seconds for $100,000 a month. Well jokes apart but it feels like the new edge in betting or trading is no longer a better research  but a bigger bank account. Also just look at their marketing like they are calling it early access instead of insider information but if only the richest firms can afford it then the result is pretty much the same for everyone else. I guess market fairness is becoming another premium feature.

When it comes to Trump, his statements, and his actions, it's very difficult to predict anything, at least for me. He is so unpredictable that it's hard to make any reliable forecasts. It almost seems like you would need insider information to understand what his next move will be and how it could affect the global economy as a whole. It's clear that his decisions are part of a broader strategy made by powerful people, but lately I haven't liked the direction politics is taking. From what I see in many countries around the world, it seems to be moving in a direction that weakens or destroys the middle class of people.