Betting on what the announcer will say?

[lodocus]

While I was looking at bets on the World Cup match to be played tonight on a few different platforms, I came across this:

https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-announcers-say-during-argentina-vs-spain-world-cup-match-20260716154956883

You can bet on how many times the commentator will say certain words during the Argentina vs. Spain match. For example, there’s an 82% chance he’ll say “VAR” and a 50% chance he’ll say “hat trick.” Since this is a market with relatively low volume, I thought maybe not everyone has noticed it yet. What do you think about this market? I think it makes sense to bet on certain words with odds around 50–60%.

[Charles-Tim]

If it is about sport generally, I prefer just the gambling sites like Stake.com and other reputed ones on this forum, but I can make use of the prediction sites for betting on assets and commodities price predictions.

I have preferred just the markets that I am seeing on the bookies, they are even too many for me because most of my bets are 1x2.

About this discussion, I can not go for such.

[BABY SHOES]

Do not let these commentators know that their self-talk is at stake in the Polymarket, fearing manipulation. Lol

I don't know which odds are higher and the most commentators say later, it's like it's difficult to predict, even I myself am not interested at all.

Come on... I prefer to bet on his matches only, not outside the match.

[yahoo62278]

Do not let these commentators know that their self-talk is at stake in the Polymarket, fearing manipulation. Lol

I don't know which odds are higher and the most commentators say later, it's like it's difficult to predict, even I myself am not interested at all.

Come on... I prefer to bet on his matches only, not outside the match.

Exactly what I would fear as well. If the announcer knows of the market, it might sway his speech.

I think markets like these are silly but it proves that people will bet on anything.

[PostQuantumBTC]

This is very stupid, later they will be complaining that people are manipulating with insider information. These kind of bet should not exist at all because of the big manipulation that can come out of it.

[Ziskinberg]

My general rule in betting is to go against whatever the announcers or so-called popular experts predict, because most of the time, they get it wrong. It’s the same with former NBA players like Charles Barkley when they give their playoff predictions. I usually fade his picks, and that strategy has been profitable for me.

[coinrifft]

This is very stupid, later they will be complaining that people are manipulating with insider information. These kind of bet should not exist at all because of the big manipulation that can come out of it.

Yes, and that's why it can be a clear manipulation or inside trader for some that make a lot of money from prediction market. And not just stupid but it's getting ridiculous as what kind of betting are going to be inside Polymarket.

But there are still some individuals that might love to see this kind of bets. But as a true sports bettor, I think we are all sick to the stomach this kind of list and we are not going to be a fan of Kalshi or Polymarket.

[avp2306]

Do not let these commentators know that their self-talk is at stake in the Polymarket, fearing manipulation. Lol

I don't know which odds are higher and the most commentators say later, it's like it's difficult to predict, even I myself am not interested at all.

Come on... I prefer to bet on his matches only, not outside the match.

Yeah right because if they know that there's existing betting towards what they are going to say on that tournaments, then we might see them manipulates the result of those things.

That's why I don't like to bet on those obvious matters, because in first place I don't want to bet on those option which I think those people can do something to  change the result.

I rather prefer to bet on matches, because I know this is hard to manipulate and we provably see more fairer result.

[passwordnow]

Hmmm, I smell another insider then if it's with the commentators and if people are able to bet this on prediction markets like the polymarket. What if big bettors become a conspirator with the commentator for specific bets like this. I'm sure that it's possible when the actual commentators would think of it that it can make them so much money. But if they're willing to put their careers on the line, good luck to them.

[SamReomo]

What do you think about this market? I think it makes sense to bet on certain words with odds around 50–60%.

On Polymarket you can bet on those words but it's really hard to win because in many cases those words are never spoken at events and the one who placed bets on those words can lose the bet easily. Those type of bets are quite risky, one should always do good research before placing any such type of bets.

[Darker45]

Isn't this obviously a ridiculous market? Does Polymarket just allow any kind of market regardless of whether it's utterly pointless? Don't they have a certain kind of quality control or moderator that sifts through all the markets to be possibly offered and approve some and reject some?

This is free money for the announcer. It's not as if Polymarket is unheard of. And it's not as if the announcer can't control himself so as to manipulate the result.

If Polymarket continues to offer markets whose results are easily manipulated, bettors might eventually lose interest.

[Perfectbaby]

Sometimes i smiles whenever i comes across some certain market options in the gambling site, especially that of polymarket and kalshi because it is another way to lure more gamblers into choosing what they think its impossible to happen, and even though the possibility is 50/50 how do they know a certain commentator would have to use such words during live matches. This is to tell us that these people are indirectly using our brains and we should be that careful while placing bet or on our choices of bet.

[Cointxz]

You can bet on how many times the commentator will say certain words during the Argentina vs. Spain match. For example, there’s an 82% chance he’ll say “VAR” and a 50% chance he’ll say “hat trick.” Since this is a market with relatively low volume, I thought maybe not everyone has noticed it yet. What do you think about this market? I think it makes sense to bet on certain words with odds around 50–60%.

It doesn’t make sense to place bet on options that easily manipulated the outcome. For example is the commentator itself can place bet for this particular and control the result based on his own performance.

There’s no statistics that you can use as reference to do a smart bet on this option so literally it’s just random bet.

Why not bet on the regular bet like ML, Player props and so on that offers same odds?

[rdluffy]

I’d already seen bettors placing predictions on political speeches, speculating on whether the politician in question would say certain specific words and even how many times
This even became a controversy since an employee involved with Trump’s teleprompters allegedly placed a bet and won money

But that’s not my kind of bet, it’s highly manipulable, and to be honest, it’s not very fun or entertaining to bet on that
I like betting on sports and watching the game, but betting on the announcer?
 No way, hahaha 

[Orpichukwu]

These people are taking sports betting to a whole different level; they are going to give bettors an extra job. Some people will go as far as watching through videos of matches and seeing how often a commentator says those words, which will still be unpredictable even if the commentator himself can't tell how many times he will mention a word, as it will be based on what is happening live that will trigger the use of any of those words, I can't bet on such this is pure luck base bet.

[swogerino]

While I was looking at bets on the World Cup match to be played tonight on a few different platforms, I came across this:

https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-announcers-say-during-argentina-vs-spain-world-cup-match-20260716154956883

You can bet on how many times the commentator will say certain words during the Argentina vs. Spain match. For example, there’s an 82% chance he’ll say “VAR” and a 50% chance he’ll say “hat trick.” Since this is a market with relatively low volume, I thought maybe not everyone has noticed it yet. What do you think about this market? I think it makes sense to bet on certain words with odds around 50–60%.

Difficult to hit it right but if the odd is really good I would definitely spend a couple of bucks on this type of bet which as you said is very low on volume. Polymarket is becoming a main player now that has become famous because of political events, like in the weekend Trump threaten Iran and then in Taco Tuesday he gives up, so people with inside information like people close to Trump are making millions if not billions from this platform. I personally do not like it very much and never tried although as I said I wouldn't mind spending a couple of dollars on the announcer tonight as is night in Europe when the game will be played. I would bet that he would say much more VAR rather than hat trick and I assume that would have a lower odd also.

[Anayochukwu]

Something like this can be manipulated very easily though it sounds fun but there are so many "what if's"  like what if the commentator connects with an outsider on the exact words he would say during the game making it easy to win, betting options like this shouldn't even be on the list to avoid unnecessary questions, accusations or manipulation. When it's about money everyone wants more and a commentator might be tempted to collaborate with an outsider so this is a bad betting option ,The normal betting we do can't be manipulated as everything and everyone is being watched closely.

[danherbias07]

While I was looking at bets on the World Cup match to be played tonight on a few different platforms, I came across this:

https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-announcers-say-during-argentina-vs-spain-world-cup-match-20260716154956883

You can bet on how many times the commentator will say certain words during the Argentina vs. Spain match. For example, there’s an 82% chance he’ll say “VAR” and a 50% chance he’ll say “hat trick.” Since this is a market with relatively low volume, I thought maybe not everyone has noticed it yet. What do you think about this market? I think it makes sense to bet on certain words with odds around 50–60%.

But what if someone tells them to avoid those words since there's a betting line that is available about them? Then, he will be paid just not to say it.

As I said in most of my replies about the prediction market, it can be manipulated. Just be sure to avoid putting so much money on it because there's a chance it will not go your way. Also, it's best to expect nothing to avoid getting mad about the results.
This prediction market keeps on making lines that are absurd, and I bet it's just a trap.

[Mhizlove]

For me, I think this kind of market is different from the normal football prediction because is not only what happens in the match that matters, but also the way the commentator talks matters too. Even though penalty, VAR or hat trick happens, it's not guaranteed that the commentator will use the exact word that the market do track. This one will make it a bit unpredictable. For me if I want to try on this kind of market, it's with little stake because it looks more like fun or entertainment prediction than something that someone can be analyse with Confidence

[freedomgo]

Something like this can be manipulated very easily though it sounds fun but there are so many "what if's"  like what if the commentator connects with an outsider on the exact words he would say during the game making it easy to win, betting options like this shouldn't even be on the list to avoid unnecessary questions, accusations or manipulation. When it's about money everyone wants more and a commentator might be tempted to collaborate with an outsider so this is a bad betting option ,The normal betting we do can't be manipulated as everything and everyone is being watched closely.

The announcers are just doing their job, and most of the time, they say what the public wants to hear because that’s what keeps people watching. So if you always follow what the announcers or popular experts say, you’re basically betting with the public. And since the public loses most of the time, that’s usually not a good strategy.

So think twice ...