Bitcoin bottom just 11 weeks away?

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

If the 4 year cycle is still to continue and you compare it to previous cycles then Bitcoin will bottom in roughly 11 weeks and i am curious to hear how low we all think it will go?

I have seen some say as low as $35k but id be very surprised if it goes that low.

I think the bottom will be between $44-50k and my current plan is to buy more regularly soon as it falls below $56k.

I also believed that we haven't seen the bottom in this bear market. But it's hard to know when it's going to fall around $50k'ish.

So if you are going to buy and accumulate then why wait though? Why not buy when the price is still at $60k? Still a win win situation for us if we wanted to buy and till we see the lowest low.

Instead of trying to time the market?

[dwyane36]

If the 4 year cycle is still to continue and you compare it to previous cycles then Bitcoin will bottom in roughly 11 weeks and i am curious to hear how low we all think it will go?

I have seen some say as low as $35k but id be very surprised if it goes that low.

I think the bottom will be between $44-50k and my current plan is to buy more regularly soon as it falls below $56k.

I also believed that we haven't seen the bottom in this bear market. But it's hard to know when it's going to fall around $50k'ish.

So if you are going to buy and accumulate then why wait though? Why not buy when the price is still at $60k? Still a win win situation for us if we wanted to buy and till we see the lowest low.

Instead of trying to time the market?

Given that past BTC correction cycles were significantly deeper than the current one, I personally also believe that we haven’t yet reached the bottom in this cycle. At the very least, it’s hard to believe in a scenario where the bears suddenly give up after so many attempts to break through the support level around $60k. I think a bottom around $40k might be possible, since a correction from the ATH to that level would be roughly comparable to what we’ve seen in past cycles.

[STT]

I think its been and gone, 12 weeks is a rounding error in the big picture view and close enough that even if the theory is correct, we could have brushed past that whole scenario already.   Watch for the close of this week, of these daily bars especially.  We've had consecutive positive action such that we are pulling away from a whole band of negative drift and reclimb the prices last seen in May.
  Ideally we get the close to candles that allows BTC price action to put the prior sell in the rear-view mirror, the close being an important seal to the deal.

[philipma1957]

I think its been and gone, 12 weeks is a rounding error in the big picture view and close enough that even if the theory is correct, we could have brushed past that whole scenario already.   Watch for the close of this week, of these daily bars especially.  We've had consecutive positive action such that we are pulling away from a whole band of negative drift and reclimb the prices last seen in May.
  Ideally we get the close to candles that allows BTC price action to put the prior sell in the rear-view mirror, the close being an important seal to the deal.

i prefer your ideas.

i would love to see a rise too 80k

[JeffBrad12]

If the 4 year cycle is still to continue and you compare it to previous cycles then Bitcoin will bottom in roughly 11 weeks and i am curious to hear how low we all think it will go?

I have seen some say as low as $35k but id be very surprised if it goes that low.

I think the bottom will be between $44-50k and my current plan is to buy more regularly soon as it falls below $56k.

$35k is doing comparison to historical price action, if there will be no black swan event that could wipe good portion of the market I doubt it will go that low. There's no more FTX or Celcius collapse, regulation has closed the loophole.
My bet is around $50k will be the bottom of this cycle. The bottom could happen earlier because there is deviation that have caused 2025's bull market to happen earlier than expected.

[fullfitlarry]

If the 4 year cycle is still to continue and you compare it to previous cycles then Bitcoin will bottom in roughly 11 weeks and i am curious to hear how low we all think it will go?

I have seen some say as low as $35k but id be very surprised if it goes that low.

I think the bottom will be between $44-50k and my current plan is to buy more regularly soon as it falls below $56k.

$35k is doing comparison to historical price action, if there will be no black swan event that could wipe good portion of the market I doubt it will go that low. There's no more FTX or Celcius collapse, regulation has closed the loophole.
My bet is around $50k will be the bottom of this cycle. The bottom could happen earlier because there is deviation that have caused 2025's bull market to happen earlier than expected.

Not sure about $35k, for me I can't imagine even if we have a black swan event that the price will go that deep. Yes, I understand that there are school of thoughts that says that we haven't seen the bottom yet, but I think it could be around $50k and not lower than that.

In the previous cycle there was one black swan, but so far we haven't seen anything that magnitude that will cause the investors to panic and sell because of fear. But in any case, we might still go and bottom later this year around $50k and that's it for this cycle.

[LastKiss]

If the 4 year cycle is still to continue and you compare it to previous cycles then Bitcoin will bottom in roughly 11 weeks and i am curious to hear how low we all think it will go?

I have seen some say as low as $35k but id be very surprised if it goes that low.

I think the bottom will be between $44-50k and my current plan is to buy more regularly soon as it falls below $56k.

I read that BitMEX is going to shut down its operations on 23 September 2026, I hope around that time will mark the bottom for Bitcoin price. Since this isn't a major crash like the FTX collapse, I don't expect Bitcoin to fall as low as $35k. A drop to around the $50k level would be more reasonable and bring us a good buying opportunity.

The last time we saw a major exchange collapse like FTX, it marked Bitcoin bottom. I'm hoping BitMEX shutting down its operations could have a similar effect although this is just my speculation at the moment.

Source: https://x.com/BitMEX/status/2080201602456301580

[CryptoYar]

[...]

$35k will need a serious macro breakdown to happen. Price drops pre-cycle bottoms are getting gradually bigger, for example, in 2018 it was 84% of all time high and in 2022 it was around 77%. If we look at this cycle $126k highest price ever it is easy to see that realistic bottom is somewhere between $50-58k and not $35k. The institutional demand floor is also different now. $56k entry is reasonable. One thing to keep in mind is if your plan is to buy all at once below that level so I will say try to buy now is better than waiting.

[Cointxz]

as i type this i will mention two names.

Mike Saylor
Elon Musk

Saylor could sell off most his btc and crash the btc market

Musk could sink 100 billion into buying coins and moonshot the market.

also Satoshi controls 1,000,000 plus coins he could sell off and crash the market.


So basically BTC is merely a yoyo in the hands of Musk, Saylor and Satoshi.

Elon was already done riding Bitcoin hype just like Trump after he use it for his political strategy. I don’t expect them to come back again anytime soon while they are winning on their respective career.

However, there’s a lot of rich ass billionaire that can possibly enter on Bitcoin to create hype like what Elon did before.


Considering that the war on Iran is still ongoing and intensifying. I believe we might see a lower low on the price since oil price is starting to pump again that will result to higher inflation and other negative effects in the economy.

[JamesDaniel90]

Those who are saying why don't i just buy bitcoin now at $65k, i dont buy Bitcoin and if i did i wouldn't buy now when i feel it will go down to at least $55k so id buy then.

I follow Bitcoin as i am mainly in top altcoins in the current top 30 and when Bitcoin crashes, alts crash a lot more and that is when i DCA the altcoins at discounted prices.

Also, just on the 11 weeks, its just a rough guide, the bottom could be a few weeks before or after. Either way, its only 3 months left roughly of these down times before we can start working our way up again to the next bull run over the next few years so we are nearly through the worst times.

[free-bit.co.in]

Those who are saying why don't i just buy bitcoin now at $65k, i dont buy Bitcoin and if i did i wouldn't buy now when i feel it will go down to at least $55k so id buy then.

That is your decision. However, I just want to say that waiting for something that may never happen isn't a wise choice.

I follow Bitcoin as i am mainly in top altcoins in the current top 30 and when Bitcoin crashes, alts crash a lot more and that is when i DCA the altcoins at discounted prices.

There's nothing wrong with investing in altcoin. But I think most of our portfolio should still be in Bitcoin, with only a smaller allocation to altcoin. There is no guarantee that there will be an altcoin ss in the next cycle.

Also, just on the 11 weeks, its just a rough guide, the bottom could be a few weeks before or after. Either way, its only 3 months left roughly of these down times before we can start working our way up again to the next bull run over the next few years so we are nearly through the worst times.

I agree with that. Based on historical cycles, we are entering the final stage of the bear market. That means there won't be much time left to accumulate BTC at attractive prices. So make the most of every opportunity.

[JamesDaniel90]

Those who are saying why don't i just buy bitcoin now at $65k, i dont buy Bitcoin and if i did i wouldn't buy now when i feel it will go down to at least $55k so id buy then.

That is your decision. However, I just want to say that waiting for something that may never happen isn't a wise choice.

I follow Bitcoin as i am mainly in top altcoins in the current top 30 and when Bitcoin crashes, alts crash a lot more and that is when i DCA the altcoins at discounted prices.

There's nothing wrong with investing in altcoin. But I think most of our portfolio should still be in Bitcoin, with only a smaller allocation to altcoin. There is no guarantee that there will be an altcoin ss in the next cycle.

Also, just on the 11 weeks, its just a rough guide, the bottom could be a few weeks before or after. Either way, its only 3 months left roughly of these down times before we can start working our way up again to the next bull run over the next few years so we are nearly through the worst times.

I agree with that. Based on historical cycles, we are entering the final stage of the bear market. That means there won't be much time left to accumulate BTC at attractive prices. So make the most of every opportunity.

I have nothing against those who feel Bitcoin should make up most of their portfolio but for the average guy having Bitcoin as most of your portfolio is not going to make you enough money next few years.

Bitcoin might hit $200k this cycle? Thats a 3-4x from these current low prices it is at, which is good if you have $10k to invest next few months but for the average person who may only have $1-2k to invest, you have to take more risk with the safe altcoins.

Many altcoins in the current top 50 will 10x next few years, as long as you spread the risk in 3 or 4 altcoins, then you will be fine as its highly unlikely all of the altcoins you invest in will go to zero but high chance at least one of them will give you great return and make it all worth it.

[Marykeller]

If the 4 year cycle is still to continue and you compare it to previous cycles then Bitcoin will bottom in roughly 11 weeks and i am curious to hear how low we all think it will go?

I have seen some say as low as $35k but id be very surprised if it goes that low.

I think the bottom will be between $44-50k and my current plan is to buy more regularly soon as it falls below $56k.

I will advise as a friend, don't hold on to this thought of yours, up to that 11 weeks you have in mind for Bitcoin to bottom at your speculated price before you start buying.

A wise investor wouldn't be waiting for such, judging by how the market is going, for Bitcoin to maintain a price above $57k for months, even showing a little bullish move currently.

I don't think buying now, will be any where condemned as a bad move, not a nice move since the aim of buying Bitcoin is for long term.

Think of what I have said, and make readjustment to the target price you have in mind of buying regularly.

[justdimin]

If the 4 year cycle is still to continue and you compare it to previous cycles then Bitcoin will bottom in roughly 11 weeks and i am curious to hear how low we all think it will go?

I have seen some say as low as $35k but id be very surprised if it goes that low.

I think the bottom will be between $44-50k and my current plan is to buy more regularly soon as it falls below $56k.

Just to be clear, a cycle doesn't necessarily mean that the events should unfold in exactly the same way and at the same time in every single cycle, this means that if in the previous cycle, the bottom was hit during, for example, in the month of August, it isn't necessary for the bottom to occur in the same exact month in this cycle as well. Things will happen differently, and the four-year cycle is basically a rough average for the durations that we have seen so far in the market, a full cycle could consist of more or less than four years as well, and the events can also happen at different times and intervals as a whole, but roughly around the same times based on how the market generally reacts to things unfolding.

A very clear example of this was the recent bull run that we've witnessed. We saw that Bitcoin created a new all-time high even before the halving, when we all know and have always believed that the bull run actually begins after the halving because people start buying more during that time and since the block reward is reduced, the circulating supply doesn't increase as much as it used to before, but it happened differently this time, which proves that things will happen differently in a cycle.

Anyway, at the end, I would say that I also believe that the bottom wouldn't be anywhere below $45k.

[Decimetre]

Those who are saying why don't i just buy bitcoin now at $65k, i dont buy Bitcoin and if i did i wouldn't buy now when i feel it will go down to at least $55k so id buy then.

You're one of the few who I've seen that strongly believe we're not done with the bottom - dip yet and I'm even more curious on such conviction. Bitcoin has spent few months now hovering around the $60k area and has touched below $60k already. It's not irrational to think that it could come to $55k which is more realistic than thinking of the $35k. But then if you intend buying to hold at the $55k price, then there's no point waiting further as you can still buy at the current price since you seem to trust in the bitcoin circle in its entirety which implies you could get over 100% profit when they next All time high happens which would also definitely happen before the end of this cycle, presumably.

I follow Bitcoin as i am mainly in top altcoins in the current top 30 and when Bitcoin crashes, alts crash a lot more and that is when i DCA the altcoins at discounted prices.

Also, just on the 11 weeks, its just a rough guide, the bottom could be a few weeks before or after. Either way, its only 3 months left roughly of these down times before we can start working our way up again to the next bull run over the next few years so we are nearly through the worst times.

The good thing is that the cycle has behaved nearly the same with slight adjustments always when it comes to reaching the all time high and could repeat down to this bottom area again based on the table shared by @Catenaclo. 11 weeks is not a long time and we can add this to the already existing patterns of the cycle should the bottom occur by that time.

[Awaklara]

I have seen some say as low as $35k but id be very surprised if it goes that low.

From what we’re seeing in the market right now, surely many people wouldn’t believe Bitcoin could drop that low. Some of the speculation I’ve seen is around $50k, which would also be a big hit for the market if it happened. But the market seems to be going through an adjustment that might make it a bit different from previous cycles. More precisely, I actually hope that we’ve already passed Bitcoin’s lowest price some time ago.

[Shinpako09]

That's what I think as well, how low it could go if the worst thing happens, but not actually the worst case because I now treat a fall as an opportunity.

But 11 weeks, isn't that too short? We've seen BTC drop to $59k a few times already, but it has held that support and didn't even touch $55k. With how strong the $59k support is, I don't think we'll see the bottom after just 11 weeks. Unless BTC falls to $59k again and, at the same time, some news comes out that could take another hit on Bitcoin, then maybe we can see the bottom.

But even with bad news, I think $35k is too low, considering how strong the $59k support is.

[Bd officer]

Bitcoin might hit $200k this cycle?

OP, no one can say for sure. But we know Bitcoin is unpredictable so we wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin hits $200k this cycle.

but for the average person who may only have $1-2k to invest, you have to take more risk with the safe altcoins.

Many altcoins in the current top 50 will 10x next few years, as long as you spread the risk in 3 or 4 altcoins, then you will be fine as its highly unlikely all of the altcoins you invest in will go to zero but high chance at least one of them will give you great return and make it all worth it.

Do you know which altcoins will do well? I don't think altcoins are safe so you shouldn't take so much risk in altcoins. If you are looking for a safe coin then you should invest in Bitcoin. If you have 1-2 thousand dollars then it is not a bad amount so it would be better to keep most of your money in Bitcoin.
Anyway I also think that the probability of Bitcoin price falling below $50k is very low. Many have already advised to buy without waiting. So if you want to invest then you should not miss the current opportunity by waiting for a certain price.

[JamesDaniel90]

That's what I think as well, how low it could go if the worst thing happens, but not actually the worst case because I now treat a fall as an opportunity.

But 11 weeks, isn't that too short? We've seen BTC drop to $59k a few times already, but it has held that support and didn't even touch $55k. With how strong the $59k support is, I don't think we'll see the bottom after just 11 weeks. Unless BTC falls to $59k again and, at the same time, some news comes out that could take another hit on Bitcoin, then maybe we can see the bottom.

But even with bad news, I think $35k is too low, considering how strong the $59k support is.

I do hope we have bottomed already at the $58.5k we saw earlier this month but it just feels too soon which is why i am leaning more towards there being further downside to come next few months especially as August is one of the worst months for Bitcoin.

To be honest, none of us know for sure how low it will go but i do believe each bear market will not be as bad as the last in terms of the fall from bull market high.

In the last cycle, bitcoin fell from $69k high in 2021 to $15.5k bottom in 2022 which was a 78% drop. If that happens again this time round then bitcoin bottom will be $28k, surely not.

If the bottom is $50k then that would represent a 60% drop from the $126k high last year which i feel is more realistic and definitely possible either next month or September.

[KingsDen]

I have seen some say as low as $35k but id be very surprised if it goes that low.

From what we’re seeing in the market right now, surely many people wouldn’t believe Bitcoin could drop that low. Some of the speculation I’ve seen is around $50k, which would also be a big hit for the market if it happened. But the market seems to be going through an adjustment that might make it a bit different from previous cycles. More precisely, I actually hope that we’ve already passed Bitcoin’s lowest price some time ago.

Many people share the sentiment that bitcoin might not go bellow $50k. I will not be surprised if the bitcoin price reverses from anywhere around here because we are already more than 50% down from the ATH, this is already a huge decline. If we expect more  low from here, it will be disastrous.

In the other hand, it is still a long way before the end of the bear market, which means we can still see more lows as we have upto 11 weeks window to hit end low window.
So, we can say that the market is not very clear for anyone. We can continue to speculate and see what the market will have for us.