Can focusing too much on statistics make sports bettors lose?

[Natalim]

Would you believe me if I said that focusing too much on stats would just make you lose more?

Here is the logic. Those stats are already there, and everyone can analyze them. I believe most of us, or the public, would probably have the same analysis on the line. But in reality, most of us still lose in the long run. So, it does not make sense if we only look at the stats. It is like saying to ourselves that it is okay to work hard analyzing everything, but we still end up losing.

What do you think are the other things we should look at to change the situation and become profitable in the long run, like the few successful sports bettors?

Please tell me specific things, and explain why they are important and how we can use them.

[Swordsoffreedom]

I don't completely agree. In my opinion, the problem is not the stats, the problem is that most people don't know how to use stats.
yeah, everyone can see the same data, but not everyone reaches the same conclusions.
A professional bettor doesn't look at raw stats, he also tries to understand why the market is giving those odds, right?
So betting only by looking at possession, H2H or last 5 matches will not make you profit in the long run.

Another thing, in sports betting analysis, very few people make mistakes, the most common mistakes are discipline and bankroll management. If I make 10 good decisions, but tilt and double my stake on bet number 11, then all my hard work will be wasted.

[Charles-Tim]

What do you think are the other things we should look at to change the situation and become profitable in the long run, like the few successful sports bettors?

This has been discussed recently, but probably you can gain from this thread. People that want to make profits from gambling either waste some money on gambling or waste huge amount of money on gambling before coming back to their right senses or they later become addicted to gambling and which is not good.

[Mia Chloe]

~snip

Well to answer your question I'd say yes and No because actually it depends on how much. Recall that even if statistics is a huge fraction of what gambling is all about it's still not everything and that's why luck and probability exists in the same space. Just because the stats say it always happens doesn't mean it's gonna happen.

That's where people misunderstand why stats are even collected in the first place. Basically stats are just a way for us to measure and estimate the tendency for an outcome to play out not the actual play out of an outcome.

[Samlucky O]

Would you believe me if I said that focusing too much on stats would just make you lose more?

Here is the logic. Those stats are already there, and everyone can analyze them. I believe most of us, or the public, would probably have the same analysis on the line. But in reality, most of us still lose in the long run. So, it does not make sense if we only look at the stats. It is like saying to ourselves that it is okay to work hard analyzing everything, but we still end up losing.

What do you think are the other things we should look at to change the situation and become profitable in the long run, like the few successful sports bettors?

Please tell me specific things, and explain why they are important and how we can use them.

Focusing on statistic should be the easy strategy  to predict sportbet, but however sportbet is not that easy to win regardless of the strategy you apply. Apart from betting using stat, there is no more strategy to secure a good winning. Gambling and sportbet wining is just by luck, so I would not assure you that a strategy better than using stat is available. Of course everyone is free to bring up the strategy they know is better.

[stadus]

That's where people misunderstand why stats are even collected in the first place. Basically stats are just a way for us to measure and estimate the tendency for an outcome to play out not the actual play out of an outcome.

That is why focusing only on stats can sometimes be called blind betting, if you agree with me.

My reason is simple. What about the line movement, injury reports, and other factors that could affect the outcome of the game?

Line movement is actually a huge factor because it means a lot of money is moving in one direction, and there is usually a reason for that. We often assume that sharp bettors are behind those movements, and we know that sharps are experienced. They would not move the line heavily if they did not have reliable information or strong confidence in their analysis.

So, that is another factor we should look at. Focusing only on stats is usually something beginners do. Experienced gamblers often have a different approach because they also consider market movement, injuries, timing, and other important information.

[Nwada001]

What do you think are the other things we should look at to change the situation and become profitable in the long run, like the few successful sports bettors?

Please tell me specific things, and explain why they are important and how we can use them.

Aside from reading stats, which gives you an advantage and at least a 40% and above chance of winning, you also need to look beyond stats and read report on players health and lineups, you also need to be disciplined, as that will be what protects your bankroll. Knowing how to predict does not give you a superpower to control players, which is why luck also has its own role to play; just try your  best and decrease the focus on profit.

[Ziskinberg]

Stats won't make a difference, the bettor still losses in the end while leaving the sportsbook's unbeatable odds, so at some point, I have to agree on you.

From my experiences, one can only be a profitable sports bettor if you know the sport well and your analyzed bets have bigger mathematical edge than those of the sportsbook. Winning chances will increased then. Stats are not enough, in fact they can serve as a trap instead if you solely rely on them.

Bankroll management and discipline should also be given high essence because winning does not happen only through productive analysis but also you have to stick as a discipline bettor to avoid regrettable future losses.

[Sandra_hakeem]

~snip

That's where people misunderstand why stats are even collected in the first place. Basically stats are just a way for us to measure and estimate the tendency for an outcome to play out not the actual play out of an outcome.

I don't understand why OP wants to begin another spam fest. What does he mean 'can focusing on stats make sports bettors lose'? What else does a gambler need to make their analysis?

[Dareo]

I would say that statistics are definitely needed, but relying on numbers alone will not yield good results. Many times everyone sees the same information, but the difference is who is betting and when they are deciding not to bet.  Two people can make completely different decisions looking at the same information. So for me it is more important to use statistics correctly and learn when not to bet, rather than to eliminate them.

[Dogedegen]

Would you believe me if I said that focusing too much on stats would just make you lose more?

Here is the logic. Those stats are already there, and everyone can analyze them. I believe most of us, or the public, would probably have the same analysis on the line. But in reality, most of us still lose in the long run. So, it does not make sense if we only look at the stats. It is like saying to ourselves that it is okay to work hard analyzing everything, but we still end up losing.

What do you think are the other things we should look at to change the situation and become profitable in the long run, like the few successful sports bettors?

Please tell me specific things, and explain why they are important and how we can use them.

The answer is a no because that does not make sense. If someone uses something wrong that does not mean that thing is the problem, the problem is the user of the thing. When it comes to most people, they do not have any education or knowledge about statistics. Simply reading numbers of past matches or stats from a game does not mean that you understand what it means or what the right interpretation is, but this ability to read the numbers tricks many people into the false belief that they know what it is. A simple example of this can be constructed by considering that two bettors can look at the same data and reach completely different conclusions. One could be looking at statistical values like expected value, probability, regression to the mean and so on while the other simply looks at recent results or the results of head to head records.

Simply having such a superficial view is wrong, and many people who think they are looking at statistics are doing exactly that. The reality is that the interpretation carries more weight here, and more advanced concept such as what I mentioned the expected value, closing line value, but also gambling related behaviors such as bankroll management, discipline, psychology. Someone who has very bad gambling behaviors may even perform worse when looking at statistics and you might say look this is the fault of statistics it is a clear case, but it is the exact opposite of that. It demonstrates the concept that bad gamblers are given an illusion of knowledge when you give them numbers which they pretend to understand and be able to interpret and this exaggerates the bad behavior that they already had.

[Floczy]

Will for me start s are the foundation of every analysis,
You know when I gamble personally I look at the stats first, I observe them before I add in some levels of emotions and allow some levels of dopamine to sum up everything and make it decision.
But overall stats are also very important but you have to add some levels of emotions in oder to get a balanced decision.

[passwordnow]

But in reality, most of us still lose in the long run.
[..]
What do you think are the other things we should look at to change the situation and become profitable in the long run, like the few successful sports bettors?

Please tell me specific things, and explain why they are important and how we can use them.

I think this two shouldn't be confusing. We lose in the long run and that's true and if we're going to focus being profitable in the long run, it's about how much you're taking from your bankroll whenever you win and how much you bet back to the bookies with how much you've won. I can't say that I am a successful sports bettor but what I can say is to enjoy each bet you make. Avoid being emotional and stop looking at stats. For me, if I lose today or this week and gets into a losing streak. Having one win breaks that disappointment and so I am content with it already and will move on to another day. It is on our mindset as bettors.

[Jegileman]

What do you think are the other things we should look at to change the situation and become profitable in the long run, like the few successful sports bettors?

Please tell me specific things, and explain why they are important and how we can use them.

Gambling is said to be a game of luck by many because of how much of how statistics doesn’t give them the expected result all the time. Stats do work in my opinion, they just work based off how you plan your strategy well and stick to it.

Just because bookmakers give a lesser odds to a team doesn’t mean that team can win. Your stats works mostly as the bookies odds but not all the time their prediction gets to enter.

As a bettor, you can sometimes go with the stats or even go with your prediction, as long as you have a good bankroll management, you will not be found in loss in the long term.

[Joy- maker]

Would you believe me if I said that focusing too much on stats would just make you lose more?

I can't agree more, because when you focus too much on statistics as a bettor you would lose more than you can even imagine. Imo focusing too much on statistics is not advisible, statistics don't predict a single out come.  Past data can only show trends but it can't guarantee what will happen in the next match, so instead of focusing too much on statistics and later end up losing just pick the teams you feel can deliver.

[yahoo62278]

The human factor isn't being considered when looking at these stats. People bet thinking that the same result is going to happen that happened the last time teams met. The fact is teams adjust. Different lineups, different strategy, different many thing. You also need to consider the rig. I don't know how often it happens, but some players might need money and someone knows it so they approach and offer a player money to play terribly. Gamblers get screwed, they both the person and the person who was approached to play bad make out ok. Something to think about.

[JiiBs]

Would you believe me if I said that focusing too much on stats would just make you lose more?

Here is the logic. Those stats are already there, and everyone can analyze them. I believe most of us, or the public, would probably have the same analysis on the line. But in reality, most of us still lose in the long run. So, it does not make sense if we only look at the stats. It is like saying to ourselves that it is okay to work hard analyzing everything, but we still end up losing.

This doesn’t make sense to me, I was hoping you would give insights as to reasons why focusing way too much on the stats can make gamblers loose.

I don’t agree that focusing too much on stats makes you lose. You can’t gamble on emotions and intuitions. That’s where your losses can easily mount from because, you’ve got nothing to compare against or isn’t giving the stats a good look.

Stats tells you what to expect, H2H, club depth, featured players, previous games and a lot more other things, you don’t lose more because of it.

[freedomgo]

Would you believe me if I said that focusing too much on stats would just make you lose more?

I can't agree more, because when you focus too much on statistics as a bettor you would lose more than you can even imagine. Imo focusing too much on statistics is not advisible, statistics don't predict a single out come.  Past data can only show trends but it can't guarantee what will happen in the next match, so instead of focusing too much on statistics and later end up losing just pick the teams you feel can deliver.

I guess eventually we will realize that gambling is not that simple. It is not just about knowing the game, checking the stats, and then being ready to bet. In reality, if we keep a record of our betting journey, we might realize that we are not actually in profit, at least if we are being honest with ourselves.

If we are smart enough, we should always think about what we have done wrong or what we have not tried yet. That is probably the most important realization if we really want to last in sports betting. It is more about doing research, learning from mistakes, and improving our strategy, instead of always complaining and saying that games are rigged whenever we lose. 

[Vaculin]

The human factor isn't being considered when looking at these stats. People bet thinking that the same result is going to happen that happened the last time teams met. The fact is teams adjust. Different lineups, different strategy, different many thing. You also need to consider the rig. I don't know how often it happens, but some players might need money and someone knows it so they approach and offer a player money to play terribly. Gamblers get screwed, they both the person and the person who was approached to play bad make out ok. Something to think about.

That rigging issue changes everything, to be honest. Because if it really exists, assuming it does, then the stats we are studying are already useless since the outcome is already predetermined, or at least close to what they want to happen.

I believe it would normally happen to teams that are heavily favored because, obviously, when most of the money goes to that side, it would be easier for the syndicate to bet on the other side and win because of the rigging. So I guess even if we have no idea whether the game is rigged, we can still take precautions by not trusting what the majority thinks. We can easily interpret that through the lines the bookmakers are offering, and we may know which one could be a bait or not.

[Alphakilo]

Would you believe me if I said that focusing too much on stats would just make you lose more?

I can't agree more, because when you focus too much on statistics as a bettor you would lose more than you can even imagine. Imo focusing too much on statistics is not advisible, statistics don't predict a single out come.  Past data can only show trends but it can't guarantee what will happen in the next match, so instead of focusing too much on statistics and later end up losing just pick the teams you feel can deliver.

I guess eventually we will realize that gambling is not that simple. It is not just about knowing the game, checking the stats, and then being ready to bet. In reality, if we keep a record of our betting journey, we might realize that we are not actually in profit, at least if we are being honest with ourselves.

If we are smart enough, we should always think about what we have done wrong or what we have not tried yet. That is probably the most important realization if we really want to last in sports betting. It is more about doing research, learning from mistakes, and improving our strategy, instead of always complaining and saying that games are rigged whenever we lose. 

It's more about personal research and learning from our past experiences than checking stats or making random picks that could be more losses than intended.
Infact, I don't think gambling has straight forward rules except the ones we create for ourselves from being disciplined with our finances, knowing that the house always wins as a mantra and always taking regular breaks from gambling to see clearly and thus make better decisions.