The 4 year cycle as a hopium generator

[d5000]

I have observed that the so called 4 year cycle is often related to hope that it will work forever.

This has of course to do with predictability. If we know we can sell at a certain point in time and then re-buy approximately 1 year later at the bottom, we have a perfect money generating machine.

I even could imagine that there are people here in the forum and elsewhere, e.g. on X or TikTok, trying to influence the public opinion about the existence of the 4 year cycle, to generate a self fulfilling prophecy, and later benefit from it.

But for the long term I'm a bit more skeptic if the cycle idea continues. More on that in further posts to not influence the poll (some will already know where I'm heading at ...).


Questions for those who want to expand on the poll's main question:

- Do you think that the 4 year cycle works as a "hopium generator"?
- Do you feel hope or fear when you think about it?
- Do you think people try to actively propagate the 4 year cycle to create a self fulfilling prophecy?
- Do you think it is good or bad for Bitcoin's long term development that the cycle seems to "just work"? Does it attract investors or does it scare them away?


PS: This thread is not meant to discuss the existence or not of a "4 year cycle", but on the psychological effect it has on traders. So please stay on topic

[OgNasty]

I think denial of the 4-year cycle is a copium generator.

When I was telling people to sell the top because of the four year cycle I could understand people saying I was wrong and the four year cycle is dead. Now that it is playing out exactly as expected, those still denying it are in denial at a level I can’t comprehend.

The four year cycle is a gift. Don’t fight it.

[laspol65]

I have only published a link here, but it has been happening in cycles. So it should not be opposed at all. Where we see a halving cycle every four years, and the next year the price of Bitcoin increases to the highest level ever. Which was proven in 2025 by touching $126k, and in 2021 it was $69k. But after this bull market ended, the price of Bitcoin corrected and created an opportunity to buy Bitcoin, which is a good opportunity for those who want to form a holding, which is currently going on.
So this halving cycle should never be denied, because it will happen in the future too. There is a halving cycle in 2028 and a halving cycle in 2032 and I believe it.

Link: https://www.binance.com/en/events/bitcoin-halving

[Die_empty]

Questions for those who want to expand on the poll's main question:

- Do you think that the 4 year cycle works as a "hopium generator"?

It does because most people are blindly optimistic that within these four years, there will be a massive drop and a new ATH. Regardless of the economic or political situation, most people are confident that there will always be a Bitcoin four-year cycle.

- Do you feel hope or fear when you think about it?

The four-year cycle balances my fear and hope. The fear that comes with the price drop is replaced by the hope that the price will still rise. So the bear market gives the opportunity to buy, as I am hopeful that there will always be a bull market to sell and make profit.

- Do you think people try to actively propagate the 4 year cycle to create a self fulfilling prophecy?

I can't tell about others. But the Bitcoin halving, which reduces the supply of Bitcoin, naturally predicts that there will be a bull market. Maybe I am one of those who have believed and spread the prophecy.

- Do you think it is good or bad for Bitcoin's long term development that the cycle seems to "just work"? Does it attract investors or does it scare them away?

It has both advantages and disadvantages. It might attract investors who believe that they would make a profit at a specific time. And I guess the majority of current investors have such a goal. However, having false security or overconfidence in the cycle might not be good for Bitcoin. If the cycle doesn't go as predicted, it might result to backlash.

[sergiorus]

I think denial of the 4-year cycle is a copium generator.

When I was telling people to sell the top because of the four year cycle I could understand people saying I was wrong and the four year cycle is dead. Now that it is playing out exactly as expected, those still denying it are in denial at a level I can’t comprehend.

The four year cycle is a gift. Don’t fight it.

What does Bitcoin have to do in the next 6 months for you to agree that the 4-year cycle theory is dead?

I see that 4-year cycle evangelists expect the bottom around October? If later it turns out it has bottomed out already, does it mark the death of the theory?

[tabas]

I voted for hope and that's what I am looking at it every time we'll be entering the bull run phase. Right now, it's acceptable that due to the cycle then we have to deal with the bear market. I think with my few cycles of my experience with Bitcoin, it took me 2 cycles to realize that the next move that I shall do was not to be against the cycle and a year ago it's proven again. I don't think that the 4 year cycle scares away investors and we can look at that point of it when institutions started to act that they can no longer ignore its growth by having bitcoin spot etfs.

[buwaytress]

Personally think (and have said) the cycle as we know it's over. But there will be cycles. Just the way market forces work. Bitcoin isn't in its own bubble any longer. The evidence shows -- even so-called long-term investors pull back and liquidate when the upside eludes them. As long as people move liquidity in and out of bitcoin, we'll continue seeing cycles.

Now, ATHs and ATLs, those are other things and I think it's the ATH hopium that keeps people going. Nothing wrong with that, I suppose. Just sorry to say if you believe 1 million dollar coins are around the next cycle, it's not a given.

[pooya87]

Every market that exists for a while starts forming patterns which people try to "magnify" by following them. It is sometimes fake too, like the period where bitcointalk was filled with topics about "correlations" with other markets like the US stock market and many even panic sold their bitcoins each time that other market dumped.

The 4-year cycle is similar to that. People saw a pattern and in this case it was a reasonable one (the new supply creation is indeed cut by 50%) and started following it. That's the very basic law of supply and demand.

[d5000]

Just a little remark as I perhaps wasn't clear enough in the OP. This thread is not meant to discuss the existence of not of the 4 year cycle. For that topic we have 999+ other threads

Here what's interesting to me is the feeling the 4 year cycle evokes in traders and investors. Do you think it makes investment planning (e.g. DCAing) easier? Would you be sad or more insecure if the pattern disappears, even if Bitcoin's price continues its uptrend? Or do you think the pattern generates more harm and fear due to the bear market cycles?

The four year cycle is a gift. Don’t fight it.

Exactly that is what I meant with this topic.

But what if too many people, traders etc. fight it and that results in it being broken? Would you miss it, even if the long term trend stays intact? Would you still invest in Bitcoin if it was broken to the downside? What if it's broken to the upside?

It has both advantages and disadvantages. It might attract investors who believe that they would make a profit at a specific time. And I guess the majority of current investors have such a goal. However, having false security or overconfidence in the cycle might not be good for Bitcoin. If the cycle doesn't go as predicted, it might result to backlash.

Exactly that's where I was heading at with my last question. If the cycle one year "fails", above all if this results in a longer bear market than planned, this could decrease the confidence in the long term growth too. We can for example see that in Ethereum and other altcoins, where we still see some sort of cyclic behavior but without growth.

So in general I'd say that it's of course "comfortable" for us to have such a predictable cycle. But as the foundations of the theory are quite weak, then I'm sure that it can fail eventually -- and if it occurs in a bad situation, the cyclist theory will not help in restoring confidence. We might run into a multi year bear market then.

On the other hand, a "supercycle" - i.e. breaking the cycle to the upside, for example if the 60k area this time is already the bottom - could create a firework of investments and extreme FOMO. It's not a given however.

As long as people move liquidity in and out of bitcoin, we'll continue seeing cycles. [...] Now, ATHs and ATLs, those are other things and I think it's the ATH hopium that keeps people going.

I was referring here to the "predictability" of a bull-bear cycle that lasts approximately 4 years. Just as the periods between the 2013 top and the 2017 top, and 2017 to 2021. I agree that there will be always some kind of cycles, as FOMO and fear phases will always exist. But it may become much less predictable. Take gold, where the cycles last between a few years and several decades (e.g. 1980-2000). And what is interesting to me is if that would change the investment behavior in Bitcoin if that happens, and generate more or less confidence.

[Zaguru12]

- Do you think that the 4 year cycle works as a "hopium generator"?

Yes I think it does because investors or traders now buy with that hopium that in four years time they will sell and rebuy again. So it’s an hopium generator in my opinion

- Do you feel hope or fear when you think about it?

I feel fear, although many would not actually want this and would think I should be hopeful that the hopium will bring in new investors but at what cost, are they coming into bitcoin as those looking to flip their money in few years time or genuine investors? I think the former is a realistic answer and that’s where my fear actually rises from.

- Do you think people try to actively propagate the 4 year cycle to create a self fulfilling prophecy?

With full certainty I say yes, influencers on social media are spreading this narrative to newbies and the scary part is that it doesn’t stays within bitcoin alone it is what they use to lure people into investing into their shitcoins. You see them prophecizing about buy at low and in four years time the market explodes and this is how they get to naive newbies.

- Do you think it is good or bad for Bitcoin's long term development that the cycle seems to "just work"? Does it attract investors or does it scare them away?

Seriously I am leaning towards it been bad, because people are treating this bitcoin market as though if the four cycle doesn’t follows each other it will be the end of it and that’s really bad for bitcoin in a long term, because what happens if the four cycles changes later? Wouldn’t there be a huge fear in the market?

[Mame89]

For me, the 4-year cycle isn't a source of false hope, but rather the opposite. This 4-year cycle remains one of the most powerful issues in Bitcoin. This cycle provides structure and hope amidst uncertainty. It could also be described as an emotional calendar for all of us. With a cycle, there's a clear and recurring narrative before a halving we accumulate, then experience a bull run, followed by euphoria and then a bear market. This creates a reliable schedule reducing the anxiety of uncertainty.

So, psychologically this cycle is a powerful tool for managing our emotions. Although the cycle can change it can at least help us become disciplined. Over time, we'll understand that Bitcoin is no longer just a cycle, but rather a long term fundamental, driven by widespread adoption. My point is to use the cycle as an emotional guide and discipline, but not as the sole guide as our primary focus remains on Bitcoin's fundamentals.

[OgNasty]

I think denial of the 4-year cycle is a copium generator.

When I was telling people to sell the top because of the four year cycle I could understand people saying I was wrong and the four year cycle is dead. Now that it is playing out exactly as expected, those still denying it are in denial at a level I can’t comprehend.

The four year cycle is a gift. Don’t fight it.

What does Bitcoin have to do in the next 6 months for you to agree that the 4-year cycle theory is dead?

I see that 4-year cycle evangelists expect the bottom around October? If later it turns out it has bottomed out already, does it mark the death of the theory?

At this point, there is nothing that could happen this cycle that would point to the 4-year cycle being any less influential.  If it fails to hit new highs by the end of 2029, then I would agree the 4-year cycle is dead.

As of now, it is hard not to feel incredibly vindicated.  Especially when you look at how certain stocks have performed since then, or even cash sitting at 4%.  My stock portfolio has definitely been carrying the weight this year while BTC has been an abomination.

Even if BTC were to hit new highs in October instead of hitting lows, that would still just be investors frontrunning the 4-year cycle at this point, which I expect to some extent since everyone knows it will be up only in the very near future.

[Ambatman]

Here what's interesting to me is the feeling the 4 year cycle evokes in traders and investors. Do you think it makes investment planning (e.g. DCAing) easier?

I would just consider it a probability framework that might weaken as Bitcoin grows.
As we grow in adoption I believe the narrative would weaken.
What I believe we currently facing is a form of representative heuristic.
Many believe since this has happened several times it would continue to happen in the future.

Would you be sad or more insecure if the pattern disappears, even if Bitcoin's price continues its uptrend? Or do you think the pattern generates more harm and fear due to the bear market cycles?

I don't know how others view things but I wouldn't necessarily be disappointed if the pattern disappears in favour of green
But I prefer a framework that makes the market more predictable.

Do you think that the 4 year cycle works as a "hopium generator"?

Yeah
Expectations has and may reinforce the cycle
The echo of this cycle is that since many expect it to occur in such a way
They would take action that would let it occur in such way.
Take for example
We expect a rally after a bear market and once we see patterns aligning we follow
History repeats itself demand outweighs supply
Price are flying
Now we start getting to the period where we expect a drop
The bear market, many can't really predict the exact but they know is close
Then they start taking profit until a drop that signifies it has started (something always magically comes up)  and many starts selling
Because well they expect it to go lower and it does
Few months consolidation occurs and the cycle repeats.

At the end of the day, it makes it easier to scale through a Bear market.

[Odohu]

Here what's interesting to me is the feeling the 4 year cycle evokes in traders and investors. Do you think it makes investment planning (e.g. DCAing) easier? Would you be sad or more insecure if the pattern disappears, even if Bitcoin's price continues its uptrend? Or do you think the pattern generates more harm and fear due to the bear market cycles?

The 4 year cycle will continue to be a significant factor in Bitcoin until all Bitcoins are mined. This does not mean that price will continue to follow the prevailing profile that we have known for the cycle.as a lot of factors can cause significant shift such as we saw with the ETF approval.  This is why it is risky to make investment decisions based only on the 4 year cycle.

I believe that those who bought and held from the early stages will be far richer that those buying and selling to rebuy using the 4 years cycle. Even though there is no substantial data to back this up, it is likely the truth because buying and selling within the cycle can be tricky and something can even go wrong and make the investor unable to completely reinvest noth the capital and the profits. Hence, I prefer buying and holding to using ge 4 year cycle for buying and selling.

[Marykeller]

To me, it generates hope to always have it in mind that whatever price Bitcoin projects in a few months, whether bearish, Bitcoin will come strong out of it, in a matter of time. No need to be fearful about the decrease; rather, be hopeful about the price that is to come that will blow your mind, to forget about the decrease of Bitcoin that has happened(although you utilize it to buy Bitcoin at a discount)

[Perfectbaby]

To be honest this creates hope for those who wants to fulfill their hope and their target in regards to their investment and trying to make money out from their investments. Bitcoin is one that has set a major target for people around the space especially some influencers who believed that they could have specific amount or profit from their investments in regard to the halving.
Many people believed that after they buy when market is low they could hold
For at least another 4 years cycle for the price to dump so that the recycle their investment after having to take their profits when they projected.

[stompix]

The 4 year cycle as a hopium generator

Bun him!!!!!!
Grab the pitchforks!!!!
The traitor is amongst us! 

But for the long term I'm a bit more skeptic if the cycle idea continues.

As I said many times before, history repeats itself till it doesn't! And usually that first time it doesn't, it ends with a  ot of window jumps!
No cycle is permanent; at one time it will be broken, and there will be a ton of Pikachu faces around, Pokémon festival time!

Anyhow, sticking to the questions, but only two of them

- Do you think people try to actively propagate the 4 year cycle to create a self fulfilling prophecy?

Lol, hell yeah, 1001% !

- Do you think it is good or bad for Bitcoin's long term development that the cycle seems to "just work"?

It's bad! Growth cycles would also mean decline periods at certain times, imagine if a country would say, for 2029 and 2033 we're going to be in recession and we're going to cut wages...
Everyone will take measures to protect themselves and thus aggravate everything.

People will start thinking, oh it hit the ATH, oh it's going to go down 50%, let's all dump it now!
The whole thing would become a joke, Bitcoin's price would stop being a reflection of its actual value, it would be worse than penny stocks.

[Alpha Marine]

The four-year cycle is a psychological thing. I could not vote between any of the options because I can't figure out which one it is. For some it may be hope, for others it may be fear, or none of the above. But when you take a closer look at it, you'll see that it happens simply because of human behaviour.

Because of Human behaviour, I believe there will be a bear and a dip. As long as there is a halving, people will speculate that the price will go up as the mining reward is reduced, and that will start the bull market. When the price peaks, people will sell to take profit, which would start the bear market.

But like human behaviour, it is not always constant. There is no guarantee that it will continue as usual forever. A time might come when people don't react to the halving the way I just said, and there will be no cycle, but I believe we have not seen a time like that yet.
As long as the "cycle" is not something that is written in Bitcoin's code, it will never be a constant thing. But for now, it is a thing.

Do you think it is good or bad for Bitcoin's long term development that the cycle seems to "just work"? Does it attract investors or does it scare them away?

I don't think it's good for Bitcoin's long-term development. It would make people focus on short-term investments. And people would focus more on short-term profit instead of all that Bitcoin can be. 

[Ambatman]

People will start thinking, oh it hit the ATH, oh it's going to go down 50%, let's all dump it now!

Not saying its good but we have seen volatility drop gradually as the year goes by
If the trend continues keeping alot constant the volatility even in a supposed bear
Wouldn't be that outrageous.
I understand we can come from the angle that Gold despite its depth fell more than 20% from ATH.
I believe Stocks or other asset have their cycles just less predictable like Bitcoin.

I believe that those who bought and held from the early stages will be far richer that those buying and selling to rebuy using the 4 years cycle.

Lol I believe OGnasty would beg to differ.

[mv1986]

Personally think (and have said) the cycle as we know it's over. But there will be cycles. Just the way market forces work. Bitcoin isn't in its own bubble any longer. The evidence shows -- even so-called long-term investors pull back and liquidate when the upside eludes them. As long as people move liquidity in and out of bitcoin, we'll continue seeing cycles.

Now, ATHs and ATLs, those are other things and I think it's the ATH hopium that keeps people going. Nothing wrong with that, I suppose. Just sorry to say if you believe 1 million dollar coins are around the next cycle, it's not a given.

I have never really been convinced of the market cycle theory, but recently someone posted in our local board about the current Bitcoin price development and I must admit that it looks quite convincing that this cycle theory was very valid for quite some time. I noticed that the effect somewhat decreased over time, but the timings for ATL and ATH in relation to the halvings are incredibly precise. Have a look yourself under the link provided.