The 4 year cycle as a hopium generator

[Cryptoprincess101]

The 4 year cycle will continue to be a significant factor in Bitcoin until all Bitcoins are mined. This does not mean that price will continue to follow the prevailing profile that we have known for the cycle.as a lot of factors can cause significant shift such as we saw with the ETF approval.  This is why it is risky to make investment decisions based only on the 4 year cycle.

I think it will be wrong to say that ''the 4 year cycle will continue until all 21 million bitcoins has been completely mined'' because that is a long time we are talking about which is 2140. Before that time, there might be macroeconomic changes that may occur which can draw a shift from the regular 4 year cycle. Just like you mentioned about the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), we saw the changes it brought to the crypto market after its approval so similar changes might likely happen in the future.

[EluguHcman]

I have observed that the so called 4 year cycle is often related to hope that it will work forever.

Yeah the 4 years cycle is literally a hopeful to be continued to the infinity and this is psychologically convince able because the 4 years cycle is not just a Speculation because, the event cycle had also been repeated on every 4 years since Bitcoin was introduced.
It is also marvelous that the events is currently realizing a countdown to the 5th round of the 4 years cycles.

The remarks of the event had also been a most interesting avenue that investors are holding on their confidence on Bitcoin as a store of value. Of course Bitcoin can still be valuable without following the so 4 years cycle but for now, it is a documentary to keep the market on track while predicting the future outcome.

[jossiel]

Here what's interesting to me is the feeling the 4 year cycle evokes in traders and investors. Do you think it makes investment planning (e.g. DCAing) easier?

I think it is making investing easier because there's a pattern and all I have to do is to do the actual thing of DCAing and wait what happens which is expected the same based on the historical pattern.

Would you be sad or more insecure if the pattern disappears, even if Bitcoin's price continues its uptrend?

What matters for most of us is that the price continues to increase once we're already positioned ourselves well.

So we won't mind seeing it continue to increase even it means of breaking the pattern and the cycle.

Or do you think the pattern generates more harm and fear due to the bear market cycles?

Yeah, I believe so that it does harm to those who are uninformed and inexperienced of the market cycles. But based on my experience, once an investor and newbie gets through it that will be an easy challenge to be taken and that fear will vanish.

[Zoomic]

- Do you think that the 4 year cycle works as a "hopium generator"?

Every four years, we all expect the bullish trend and because of that, we accumulate ahead of time and since the expectation is generally anticipated, Bitcoin pumps during the last year of the each cycle so it's a hopium.

- Do you think it is good or bad for Bitcoin's long term development that the cycle seems to "just work"? Does it attract investors or does it scare them away?

You want to convince a big investor to invest hugely in Bitcoin? Show them the 4-year cycle chart and see how they'll buy the idea immediately.

Show a newbie the 4-year chart and tell them to buy and wait for the end of the cycle to sell high, they'll be convinced that you just handed them a secret manual to make money.

So it actually attracts investors, not scaring them away.

[knuckey]

Questions for those who want to expand on the poll's main question:

- Do you think that the 4 year cycle works as a "hopium generator"?
- Do you feel hope or fear when you think about it?
- Do you think people try to actively propagate the 4 year cycle to create a self fulfilling prophecy?
- Do you think it is good or bad for Bitcoin's long term development that the cycle seems to "just work"? Does it attract investors or does it scare them away?


PS: This thread is not meant to discuss the existence or not of a "4 year cycle", but on the psychological effect it has on traders. So please stay on topic

- From what happened and what is seen from the facts, the answer is still very clear and there is hope, because in the 4-year cycle the supply of Bitcoin is getting smaller, so everyone thinks that Bitcoin will become increasingly rare.
- I think it's hopeful, not scary because it's possible that as long as I'm alive bitcoin will still be very viable and actually become a larger scale in my mind.
- Indirectly of course people or even I myself influence other people's predictions about the 4 year cycle, because there is still a strong reason "Hope" is a strong moment that cannot be missed.

[sergiorus]

I think denial of the 4-year cycle is a copium generator.

When I was telling people to sell the top because of the four year cycle I could understand people saying I was wrong and the four year cycle is dead. Now that it is playing out exactly as expected, those still denying it are in denial at a level I can’t comprehend.

The four year cycle is a gift. Don’t fight it.

What does Bitcoin have to do in the next 6 months for you to agree that the 4-year cycle theory is dead?

I see that 4-year cycle evangelists expect the bottom around October? If later it turns out it has bottomed out already, does it mark the death of the theory?

At this point, there is nothing that could happen this cycle that would point to the 4-year cycle being any less influential.  If it fails to hit new highs by the end of 2029, then I would agree the 4-year cycle is dead.

As of now, it is hard not to feel incredibly vindicated.  Especially when you look at how certain stocks have performed since then, or even cash sitting at 4%.  My stock portfolio has definitely been carrying the weight this year while BTC has been an abomination.

Even if BTC were to hit new highs in October instead of hitting lows, that would still just be investors frontrunning the 4-year cycle at this point, which I expect to some extent since everyone knows it will be up only in the very near future.

Ok, thanks for the reply, but I'll have to raise another point.

Don't you think that what sent Bitcoin into a bear market last summer was a coincidental 10/10/2025 altcoin sell-off, when many coins briefly went to 0, many trading firms and individual traders lost a large share of their assets or even went tits up and then later had to start selling more hard assets (i.e. Bitcoin) to cover the losses?

If we look at the Bitcoin PA before that day, it looked strong, no blow-off the top, no signs of weakness. Even on the 10th of October it closed the daily candle at just 7.3% loss (on Binance). It was not a Bitcoin sell-off but an Altcoin (mainly VC bags) sell-off.

So the question is, if Bitcoin's bottom is in and by October we will be in a clear uptrend, paired with the 10/10/2025 theory, why should one still believe the 4-cycle theory is alive and that the current bear market wasn't merely the consequences of the 10/10/2025?

[OcTradism]

- Do you think that the 4 year cycle works as a "hopium generator"?
PS: This thread is not meant to discuss the existence or not of a "4 year cycle", but on the psychological effect it has on traders. So please stay on topic

It is a hopium generator, certainly because it's clearly and easily to check back and see what happened in the past with previous market cycles. After seeing that, it's hard to don't feel very hopeful for what bullish market in a next cycle.

- Do you feel hope or fear when you think about it?

Hope and fear are opposite with each other and they coexist because without bear market, there is no bull market. In contrast, bull market needs a bear market to exist as its fuel too. Hence in a same market, there are people who are hopeful while others are fearful and it's always like this in both bullish and bearish times.

It does because most people are blindly optimistic that within these four years, there will be a massive drop and a new ATH. Regardless of the economic or political situation, most people are confident that there will always be a Bitcoin four-year cycle.

There are market drawdowns in bull market, corrections and crashes in bear market, while there are many new ATHs in a bull market of a new market cycle. I believe it will work like this but clearly the ROI from bottom to peak will be smaller, peak to peak between two cycles will be smaller in later cycles.

[philipma1957]

I have observed that the so called 4 year cycle is often related to hope that it will work forever.

This has of course to do with predictability. If we know we can sell at a certain point in time and then re-buy approximately 1 year later at the bottom, we have a perfect money generating machine.

I even could imagine that there are people here in the forum and elsewhere, e.g. on X or TikTok, trying to influence the public opinion about the existence of the 4 year cycle, to generate a self fulfilling prophecy, and later benefit from it.

But for the long term I'm a bit more skeptic if the cycle idea continues. More on that in further posts to not influence the poll (some will already know where I'm heading at ...).


Questions for those who want to expand on the poll's main question:

- Do you think that the 4 year cycle works as a "hopium generator"?
- Do you feel hope or fear when you think about it?
- Do you think people try to actively propagate the 4 year cycle to create a self fulfilling prophecy?
- Do you think it is good or bad for Bitcoin's long term development that the cycle seems to "just work"? Does it attract investors or does it scare them away?


PS: This thread is not meant to discuss the existence or not of a "4 year cycle", but on the psychological effect it has on traders. So please stay on topic

There is a 4 year mining cycle

which makes people think and believe in a 4 year price cycle


the belief needs to end


or it will crash and burn

since I do not know if the belief ever ends I do not know the correct answer to the quiz.

But I do know that continued belief in 4 year price cycle will kill BTC

BTC can not survive if it can not separate price cycle away from mining cycle.

[Sowat]

I have observed that the so called 4 year cycle is often related to hope that it will work forever.

This has of course to do with predictability. If we know we can sell at a certain point in time and then re-buy approximately 1 year later at the bottom, we have a perfect money generating machine.

I even could imagine that there are people here in the forum and elsewhere, e.g. on X or TikTok, trying to influence the public opinion about the existence of the 4 year cycle, to generate a self fulfilling prophecy, and later benefit from it.

But for the long term I'm a bit more skeptic if the cycle idea continues. More on that in further posts to not influence the poll (some will already know where I'm heading at ...).


Questions for those who want to expand on the poll's main question:

- Do you think that the 4 year cycle works as a "hopium generator"?
- Do you feel hope or fear when you think about it?
- Do you think people try to actively propagate the 4 year cycle to create a self fulfilling prophecy?
- Do you think it is good or bad for Bitcoin's long term development that the cycle seems to "just work"? Does it attract investors or does it scare them away?


PS: This thread is not meant to discuss the existence or not of a "4 year cycle", but on the psychological effect it has on traders. So please stay on topic

There us a 4 year mining cycle

which makes people think and believe in a 4 year price cycle


the belief needs to end


or it will crash and burn

since I do not know if the belief ever ends I do not know the correct answer.

I think this is also crucial to recognize. Just because mining follows a 4-year cycle, the market doesn't automatically follow this. There is supply, demand, adoption, regulation, macro and psychology that influences price dynamics.

By assuming the same cycle will play out without recognizing these fundamentals and acting on that will be dangerous.

Don't rely solely on history or a cycle, especially when it comes to a technology that evolves rapidly.

[d5000]

the belief needs to end

or it will crash and burn

If you want you can elaborate!

My "fear" about the 4 year cyclic theory is that if people become dependant on that "hopium", and it begins to fail eventually, then there would be even more uncertainty in bear markets. Now, many investors try to catch the "cycle bottom" and that generates some support around the associated dates (late 2018/2022/2026?). If that's no longer the case anymore, it could be more difficult for the BTC price to find a reliable bottom.

I wouldn't be surprised if betweeen September and November we could see a nice bullish candle of "cycle bottom frontrunners", independently from the fact if we see a new low <57xxx or not.

But what if this candle happens, we perhaps go to 80-90k but fail to break 125k until 2029? This would not be unrealistic at all. With many altcoins, including Ethereum, that exactly happened: they still behave "cyclic" (=dependant on Bitcoin's "cycles") but they changed into a long term sideways or even bear market.

Now: this all is based on the idea that Bitcoin is still used in a mainly speculative manner. If there is real adoption as a long term SoV and/or currency, then all these theories like the "cycle" would become obsolete. And this is for me also the way out of a possible eternal bear market tunnel (if the cycle breaks to the downside): that the focus shifts away from "getting rich fast" to more sustainable investing once nobody wants to sell anymore.

[stompix]

There us a 4 year mining cycle
which makes people think and believe in a 4 year price cycle

A cycle of pain! A mining cycle of pain where you actually feel the drill going inside of your you know what!

At least with prices you have an escape, with mining
- you need the price to double for the reward to keep static
- fees will never double in $ value because people will never spend twice just to pay with BTC
- electricity always goes up, never halves
- with holding bitcoins there are "competitors", with mining one huge fund now knowing what to do with money and there you go 10% revenue decrease

I sometimes feel like we need to inject every enthusiast guy that keeps posting about how Bitcoin will keep on doing these jumps with a bit of serum from the desperation miners feel when halving is just around the corner, that would balance the scene a bit.

~

Not saying its good but we have seen volatility drop gradually as the year goes by
If the trend continues keeping alot constant the volatility even in a supposed bear

Volatility goes down because there is more money on the market.
Back in 2011, one guy could dump his wallet and crash it, one rich kid could pump it 10% with his allowance, not it's just too much money and too many people trapped in it for it to keep swinging like that.

[philipma1957]

The easiest way to split the cycle apart would be to declare that the first 10,500,000 coins mined from the prehalfing are on stale notices.

Ie 2009 to dec 2012 addresses never having a withdrawal will be considered to be abandoned in 2039

so Jan 2039 all frozen untouched coins from Jan 2009

Feb 2039 all Feb 2009



all the way to

Dec 2042 all Dec 2012


are declared intentionally abandoned and are confiscated into a

poll for tail end submission.

of those 10,500,000 mined coins at least 1 million are satoshi coins

then take 0.25 btc from that stack above and add back to rewards starting in 2040

if there are only 1 million abandoned coins from 2009 to 2012

and if you feed .25 btc a block you have enough coins for 4 million blocks minimum

that is 4,000,000/144=27,777.778  days or

27,777.778/365=76.104  years of steady even paced mining

since it is far more likely there are 3 million lost coins it is is enough coins for 236 years or


2276 which means stability and zero inflation


but morons will never follow this idea because it is the correct one.

oh well.

[Pandorak]

Well, first of all, of course, this 4 year cycle will raise expectations, and I’m sure most investors are using it to maximize their profits. However, i see so many people waiting for prices to drop to lower levels, holding off on accumulating until they reach their desired price. In reality, they often end up missing that downward momentum, because i truly believe that no one can accurately predict Bitcoin’s absolute bottom.

In this regard, i would never make the cycle the primary basis for my investment decisions. Instead, i view them merely as a source of hope that a decline will be followed by a rise to higher prices, at the very least, this boosts confidence. But when it comes to accumulating holdings, i personally won’t wait for a decline, it’s better to focus on buying in stages (DCA), always doing so when discretionary funds are available. If, in the end, the cyclical pattern disappears or changes, there will be no regrets or need to alter my investment plan.

[buwaytress]

I was referring here to the "predictability" of a bull-bear cycle that lasts approximately 4 years. Just as the periods between the 2013 top and the 2017 top, and 2017 to 2021. I agree that there will be always some kind of cycles, as FOMO and fear phases will always exist. But it may become much less predictable. Take gold, where the cycles last between a few years and several decades (e.g. 1980-2000). And what is interesting to me is if that would change the investment behavior in Bitcoin if that happens, and generate more or less confidence.

Yeah, and really, even when the 4-year cycle was a thing, it really was only three such cycles -- for many people, it wasn't enough, though that third cycle was probably what even I was so certain of. The halving really for me is the marker of predictability and when the first of the last series of ATH came before that, it really felt like I couldn't tell for sure any longer.

I know that's really not contributive to the discussion either, but it's also possible that hopium has a... plateauing effect for the likes of me haha

I have never really been convinced of the market cycle theory, but recently someone posted in our local board about the current Bitcoin price development and I must admit that it looks quite convincing that this cycle theory was very valid for quite some time. I noticed that the effect somewhat decreased over time, but the timings for ATL and ATH in relation to the halvings are incredibly precise. Have a look yourself under the link provided.

And does that generate the same optimism and hope as it might have 4 years ago? For me anyway, I no longer feel any from any kind of chart. PlanB (in whichever version), for better or worse, probably made my heart flutter once or twice. I don't even look now.

[OcTradism]

Yeah, and really, even when the 4-year cycle was a thing, it really was only three such cycles -- for many people, it wasn't enough, though that third cycle was probably what even I was so certain of. The halving really for me is the marker of predictability and when the first of the last series of ATH came before that, it really felt like I couldn't tell for sure any longer.

Bitcoin market is still young but it is no longer like a newborn market so we already have four market cycles to know about their cycle pattern. Of course the fourth market cycle has yet completed but we are not too far from its ending likely in the year of 2027. I guess around Q2 of 2027, market will find its bottom and from that it will recover, warm up as preparation for a next market cycle and bull run.

All these questions are important but it is more challenging for people who only focus on one single market cycle but it is more comfortable (no longer challenging) with investors who have longer plan like 2, 3 or 4 market cycles.

For example in 2026 there are people who wonder about what's next in a next year or a next market cycle but if we look back to 2021 or 2017, we will feel like with such amazing growth of Bitcoin, why did we have to worry a lot in 2017 or 2021.

Don't let short-term or one-cycle pitfalls to make us feel hard.

[EarnOnVictor]

First, I chose "hope," and I wasn't surprised that "hope" is winning. If not hope, what could it be? Even if it later fades away and eventually stopped, this can't stop the fact that it always brings hope to Bitcoin community while it lasts.

Questions for those who want to expand on the poll's main question:

- Do you think that the 4 year cycle works as a "hopium generator"?
- Do you feel hope or fear when you think about it?
- Do you think people try to actively propagate the 4 year cycle to create a self fulfilling prophecy?
- Do you think it is good or bad for Bitcoin's long term development that the cycle seems to "just work"? Does it attract investors or does it scare them away?

1. No! It, on the other way round, aligns with Bitcoin tradition. This is halving and community -induces, so it's far away from some kind of hopium.
2. I feel hope.
3. I don't think so! This is the reality around Bitcoin with provable records. People are only hyping it.
4. Bitcoiners rely on this cycle ideology for over a decade, and yet, Bitcoin keeps rising and creating fresh ATH. Hasn't that hinted something already? I only see positivity in every angle, which includes higher price over time and more investors coming in.

[Oluwa-btc]

There is a 4 year mining cycle

which makes people think and believe in a 4 year price cycle


the belief needs to end


or it will crash and burn

It is not just the people and investors, we can say the same for miners. All they see is a four year cycle and nothing about a sustainable long-term plan.

The beliefs are positive beliefs though, I will not say they should end but they should also focus on long-term growth/plans.

My "fear" about the 4 year cyclic theory is that if people become dependant on that "hopium", and it begins to fail eventually, then there would be even more uncertainty in bear markets. Now, many investors try to catch the "cycle bottom" and that generates some support around the associated dates (late 2018/2022/2026?). If that's no longer the case anymore, it could be more difficult for the BTC price to find a reliable bottom.

There should be little or no uncertainty during bears if investors and people know that, during the bottoms and bears are the favorite and best times in the bitcoin market. If you're not there during lows how do you want to be a part of the highs and profit making? Hoping is dangerous, I will say a sustainable long-term plan should be wise choice.

[danherbias07]

Questions for those who want to expand on the poll's main question:

- Do you think that the 4 year cycle works as a "hopium generator"?

Yes.

- Do you feel hope or fear when you think about it?

Hope.

- Do you think people try to actively propagate the 4 year cycle to create a self fulfilling prophecy?

Since many are believing it, is it still a self-fulfilling prophecy?

- Do you think it is good or bad for Bitcoin's long term development that the cycle seems to "just work"? Does it attract investors or does it scare them away?

I think it can attract investors, especially new ones.
It's not just hope that is included in it, but also a chance for others to invest now. Now! As more halvings come, the value of Bitcoin (which I don't doubt) will go upwards. Many satoshis are gone now, and that includes people who bought and forgot about it. It just means Bitcoin becomes very rare as time flies by, and soon more people are holding onto it, which makes it difficult to get, so buying as early as possible is the best choice.

[hedgeh0g]

I think denial of the 4-year cycle is a copium generator.

When I was telling people to sell the top because of the four year cycle I could understand people saying I was wrong and the four year cycle is dead. Now that it is playing out exactly as expected, those still denying it are in denial at a level I can’t comprehend.

The four year cycle is a gift. Don’t fight it.

But the four-year cycle has one drawback that always comes together in trading, and that is its constant repetition. I'm sure you already know how much the markets, including cryptocurrencies, do not like repetitions. It seems that it is often those who go against the perceived majority who win in the market. And when building technical analysis, it is always worth remembering that if everyone sees some kind of cycle dependence, or discusses a powerful level of support, then most likely the crypto market is already preparing unpleasant surprises.
We can 't relax , we can 't go in the majority in one direction .

[landheer]

Sometimes I wonder whether this four-year cycle will continue indefinitely; given the reality that it persists, it is difficult to predict with certainty whether it will keep going, as anything can happen in the future. In my view, this four-year cycle is beneficial for Bitcoin's development, and the fact is that Bitcoin is doing well despite the cycle's existence. I believe the cycle attracts investors, which creates the potential for Bitcoin's price to rise further in the future. While some may be afraid to invest heavily, there are many who are not, suggesting that Bitcoin has the potential for continued price appreciation; ultimately, however, we must be prepared for whatever the future holds for Bitcoin.