The 4 year cycle as a hopium generator

[d5000]

1. No! [...]
2. I feel hope.

Isn't this a bit of a contradiction? Hopium generator means for me that it creates hope, not that it is created by hope - of course the hopium can help to create the support for bear market bottoms and start the bull market, but the rest of the cycle isn't really determined by it.

This is the reality around Bitcoin with provable records.

It has been repeated 2 times (we can't count 2009-13 because there were lots of highs and bottoms back then). It could be evidence but it is quite weak, and we don't know if the second repetition really fulfills all "rules" cyclists usually mention. There were already rules which were broken before (e.g. the "rule" that a previous ATH is never broken in a bear market, was broken in 2022).

4. Bitcoiners rely on this cycle ideology for over a decade, and yet, Bitcoin keeps rising and creating fresh ATH. Hasn't that hinted something already? I only see positivity in every angle, which includes higher price over time and more investors coming in.

This would also support the hopium theory. However, there is also a negative side: the extreme profit takings after the cycle top, which may scare some investors away. I can only repeat that in the case of most altcoins, the ATHs eventually ended, despite of continuing cyclic volatility.

Since many are believing it, is it still a self-fulfilling prophecy?

The more believers, the stronger the prophecy.

As more halvings come, the value of Bitcoin (which I don't doubt) will go upwards. [...]It just means Bitcoin becomes very rare as time flies by, and soon more people are holding onto it, [...]

You ignore the sellers side here. Long term holders were according to chain analysis one of the main drivers of Bitcoin's crash in late 2025. Eventually they will want to sell, or buy a house or car directly with their Bitcoin. The supply of Bitcoin still will increase until 2140, halvings only reduce inflation.

[Lida93]

Questions for those who want to expand on the poll's main question:

- Do you think that the 4 year cycle works as a "hopium generator"?
- Do you feel hope or fear when you think about it?
- Do you think people try to actively propagate the 4 year cycle to create a self fulfilling prophecy?
- Do you think it is good or bad for Bitcoin's long term development that the cycle seems to "just work"? Does it attract investors or does it scare them away?

1. Yes it does because that's where all bitcoin holders focus is directed at on making profit. Though this doesn't apply to traders but just long time bitcoin investors.
2. Of course.
3. IMO, it's not really a kinda propagated narrative that's being sold out, but it's what has become a norm that every bitcoiners is conscious of, and like a system, the cycle doesn't require much talks for it to remain consistent.
4. It's not bad, because from what I think, without the cycle remaining uninterrupted that's how more investors are attracted to adopt bitcoin, but when the cycle becomes a matter of uncertainty with no clear timing then hope and fears would go together. Reason being that while investors expresses hope of an upcoming cycle they also get skeptical if  its gonna happen or not.

[dzonikg28]

Just a little remark as I perhaps wasn't clear enough in the OP. This thread is not meant to discuss the existence of not of the 4 year cycle. For that topic we have 999+ other threads

Here what's interesting to me is the feeling the 4 year cycle evokes in traders and investors. Do you think it makes investment planning (e.g. DCAing) easier? Would you be sad or more insecure if the pattern disappears, even if Bitcoin's price continues its uptrend? Or do you think the pattern generates more harm and fear due to the bear market cycles?

Maybe it depends at what type of investor we are looking at. Most of us here in the forum are aware of that cycle and I assume that everyone has their way to deal with it. DCAing will probably always put you on the safe side of things because even if that cycle begins to deviate, you are still good to go if you consistently add BTC. This would apply to investors who have been in the market for a while or who are aware of the cycle because of past investment and seem to be knowing what to do at what point in time.

But for new or first time investors it could be very different. I could only suspect how many of them really know about the 4 year cycle. I think that very experienced investors who already own other assets would probably put in the time to figure out what the 4 year cycle is, but real beginners, I think most of them don't. They just want exposure, have in a best case scenario a decent understanding of the technology, but whether many of them would try to time a cycle because they have heard about it and educated themselves about it, I don't know.

As for me, I usually haven't specifically paid attention as to where we are in the cycle. I prefer to slowly increase my exposure whenever I can. Or when some momentum became visible, I decided to sell or buy. Although I have to say that the momentum may have been due to the cycle sometimes.  

Since this is about a cycle, wouldn't the right answer be that hope/fear depends on where in the cycle we are right now? Since the cycles have worked as expected so far, hope would almost certainly have to be followed by fear when a new all time high was hit if you are a cycle believer.

[d5000]

Since this is about a cycle, wouldn't the right answer be that hope/depends on where in the cycle we are right now? Since the cycles have worked as expected so far, hope would almost certainly have to be followed by fear when a new all time high was hit if you are a cycle believer.

I honestly think my original question is more interesting , i.e. if the "cycle as a whole" generates hope or fear. The "seasonal" hope and fear depending on the "position" in the cycle is very much logical for me, a cyclist will always have hope around the halving date and feel fear (or better: prepare for profit taking time or shorting) around 1 1/2 year later at the predicted "cycle top".

But the general sentiment towards the cycle is imo something that really is debatable even if there is also a clear tendency (both in this thread and in other discussions/articles about that topic).

Most here have so far confirmed the hopium theory - that after every bear market we will see new ATHs because of the inevitable (according to cyclist) halving bull effect, to call it that way. If I believed in the cycle as a law of science (I don't ....) then I would find hope exactly in bear markets that this pattern could continue.

So my more cautious opinion about the cycle - that it could lead to a really long and painful bear market if the current trends persist and don't change (i.e. declining upside ROI in bulls but similar crashes, which scare away some of the users) - is very much a minority position, even if I have seen it sometimes in other threads, above all in the Wall Observer there are several anti-cyclists who have a similar position than me. I wouldn't describe it as fear, but as a possibility we should take into account.

I myself thus am still undecided. The hopium generator could itself turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy, and that could work for several years more. But on the other hand, I still think the cycle getting weaker and then turning into a long bear market is a possibility.

The problem of the cycle imo is that the awareness of the "inevitable" bear market leds more people to sell and creates more volatility. Traders love that, but if you are of those who want Bitcoin to become a more stable asset and possibly a global currency, then it is an obstacle.

[savetheFORUM]

I myself thus am still undecided. The hopium generator could itself turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy, and that could work for several years more. But on the other hand, I still think the cycle getting weaker and then turning into a long bear market is a possibility.

The problem of the cycle imo is that the awareness of the "inevitable" bear market leds more people to sell and creates more volatility. Traders love that, but if you are of those who want Bitcoin to become a more stable asset and possibly a global currency, then it is an obstacle.

Of course, it's self-fulfilling, and that is how it has been since the beginning. The market, or we should just say Bitcoin, is totally controlled by the reactions of its holders/users/investors. They believe it is going to go up when it is low, so they start buying, which actually makes it go up, and then they believe it is going to drop when it is high, so they start selling and then it actually drops because of that, and that's how the cycles are formed.

The halving itself doesn't create a bull-effect or push the price up, which people need to understand if they don't, but it's the buying pressure that is put on the market by the people that makes the prices go up based on the supply and demand mechanism because Bitcoin and most of the altcoins have limited supplies which means demand makes their price go up.

I don't think that Bitcoin will ever become a more stable asset and then become a global currency following that, because what I said above will continue as long as people are getting benefits from it. If you buy when it's low, and sell when it goes high, and you see that this is beneficial for you, you would continue doing that because why not? The world is running behind money because it's almost the most important thing to have in today's world, so people, governments, companies, they are all going to use Bitcoin to make as much money as they can for as long as it's possible. What can possibly stop them from doing this?

[tokeweed]

Been here since 2013 and if I just listened to the maxis and bought BTC during 2015, 2018 and 2022, I'd be a very rich man today.  Lolol.  And since they're annoyingly forcing everybody to listen to them and telling us to BTFD right now then I guess it really is a good time to buy BTC?  Lol.

I got some stables on the side and waiting.  But I'm not really that confident about taking some spot BTC buys yet tbh.  I guess I'm more comfortable to buy BTC as upward momentum picks up than trying to time the bottom.

[EarnOnVictor]

1. No! [...]
2. I feel hope.

Isn't this a bit of a contradiction? Hopium generator means for me that it creates hope, not that it is created by hope - of course the hopium can help to create the support for bear market bottoms and start the bull market, but the rest of the cycle isn't really determined by it.

No wonder! Our meaning/understanding of hopium are not the same. In your definition (clearly stated here), my answer is yes, but in mine, which means "false/unrealistic hope," it's no. I guess that is where the contradiction lies.

This is the reality around Bitcoin with provable records.

It has been repeated 2 times (we can't count 2009-13 because there were lots of highs and bottoms back then). It could be evidence but it is quite weak, and we don't know if the second repetition really fulfills all "rules" cyclists usually mention. There were already rules which were broken before (e.g. the "rule" that a previous ATH is never broken in a bear market, was broken in 2022).

You have a solid point, and Bitcoin's infancy times could be complicated, yet it started the whole tradition's ideology if we tell ourselves the truth. So, mathematically, you are justified, but theoretically, it's more philosophical because, as I said earlier, it technically started the whole idea, and I don't expect a perfect replica, even as halving, which also happened that time, can't be removed from the equation, which also help in forming the tradition itself. And without such tradition, their won't be 4-year cycle to begin with.

4. Bitcoiners rely on this cycle ideology for over a decade, and yet, Bitcoin keeps rising and creating fresh ATH. Hasn't that hinted something already? I only see positivity in every angle, which includes higher price over time and more investors coming in.

This would also support the hopium theory. However, there is also a negative side: the extreme profit takings after the cycle top, which may scare some investors away. I can only repeat that in the case of most altcoins, the ATHs eventually ended, despite of continuing cyclic volatility.

You are right about altcoins, but that's why Bitcoin and altcoins are not the same. Bitcoin has a big loyal community that is increasing daily + random/new investors, and institution recognition. That structure will hardly die. However, if the cycle continues dependably, it can only mean a repeat of higher high (HH) to create higher ATH during its bullish season. This hasn't failed! The reason why Bitcoin's ATH would continue to edge higher, IMO, unlike altcoins, is because, as more altcoins are being created, more altcoins are being allocated to almost the same liquidity size that have to be shared among the many of them. Imagine, for example, there were 100 altcoins before (when they hit the ATH), but now, there are 10,000 altcoins. All of them of them would have to fight for their liquidity share, which is why most altcoins will never hit their ATH again, even as more are being created to flood the market. But Bitcoin is special and dependable, so it will continue to easily attract investment because people consider it as the safest investment in the crypto market.

[YOSHIE]

- Do you think that the 4 year cycle works as a "hopium generator"?

Of course, I speculate Bitcoin's 4 year cycle is a "hope generator" for Bitcoin users and investors, certainly for those who have held and purchased Bitcoin.
I remain consistent with the halving pattern, for me I am optimistic, because my psychology says so, my speculation is focused on supply and halving. These two things are enough to make the Bitcoin price reach a new record.

- Do you feel hope or fear when you think about it?

Yes, it is natural for humans to have mixed thoughts, between hope and fear, but because I have a big soul, of course I throw away fear and remain hopeful.

- Do you think people try to actively propagate the 4 year cycle to create a self fulfilling prophecy?

No, I don't think so, in fact I think the opposite, people are talking real and facts based on existing experience which is a recurring pattern with Bitcoin.

- Do you think it is good or bad for Bitcoin's long term development that the cycle seems to "just work"? Does it attract investors or does it scare them away?

From the experience that has occurred in the 4 year cycle, everything that has happened has had a good impact on Bitcoin investors and users, as well as further positive therapy, The point is that this cycle will have a positive impact in the long term. Yes, if you pay attention, investors are really interested and intrigued, they are actually enthusiastic and not afraid.

[d5000]

In your definition (clearly stated here), my answer is yes, but in mine, which means "false/unrealistic hope," it's no. I guess that is where the contradiction lies.

Thanks for clarifying. That brings us of course to an important point: how realistic is the hope generated by the 4 year cycle?

I've already mentioned Ethereum, and there the "hope cycle" has begun to break. Ethereum has of course no halvings but followed a very similar cycle than Bitcoin until 2021. Also other coins with halvings, like Litecoin, have broken out of the hope cycle and are now in a sideways or bear market (depending which parameters you use).

My question has also practical consequences: is the cycle so strong that I can recommend a Bitcoin investment near the bear market bottom (predicted by the cycle) even to risk-averse people, like friends, family members etc? And here I'm beginning to struggle, and I become more cautious again.

And without such tradition, their won't be 4-year cycle to begin with.

Tradition is indeed a good word - and in the case of gold we have a tradition that worked for millenia without really good other reasons than it's character of a tradition (yes, gold is beautiful but not that much different than fake gold in that regard)

It's possible that the 4 year cycle "ossifies" in a similar way. But as I wrote above: I wouldn't bet on it. And if it "ossifies" too much, then it will be eventually frontrunned, morph, and eventually perhaps disappear, if the mathematical driving force (the mining halving cycle) becomes weaker and weaker.

The reason why Bitcoin's ATH would continue to edge higher, IMO, unlike altcoins, is because, as more altcoins are being created, more altcoins are being allocated to almost the same liquidity size that have to be shared among the many of them.

Good point, I think I agree with that statement. There is a difference indeed, and even Ethereum hasn't managed to "depeg" from its character of an "altcoin" which competes with dozens or even thousands of other coins, otherwise "Ethereum killers" won't be a thing.

I don't think that Bitcoin will ever become a more stable asset and then become a global currency following that, because what I said above will continue as long as people are getting benefits from it. If you buy when it's low, and sell when it goes high, and you see that this is beneficial for you, you would continue doing that because why not?

Well there are two counter arguments:

1) if the cycle becomes too predictable it will be frontrun increasingly. People would sell earlier and earlier in the bull market, and buy earlier and earlier in the bear market, just because it "should work because it always worked".
2) the volatility is declining, that is a fact and I expect it to continue. The question is: will this attract or repel investors? If investors continue with a high risk-reward mindset, then declining volatility is bad and would scare investors away. And then the ATHs may end, like in the case of Ethereum. If Bitcoin instead manages to "establish" itself as a more stable asset then the declining volatility would be an advantage, because you have to fear less harsh crashes, and could drive more risk-averse people and institutions into Bitcoin ...

[suhadi88]

Well there are two counter arguments:

1) if the cycle becomes too predictable it will be frontrun increasingly. People would sell earlier and earlier in the bull market, and buy earlier and earlier in the bear market, just because it "should work because it always worked".
2) the volatility is declining, that is a fact and I expect it to continue. The question is: will this attract or repel investors? If investors continue with a high risk-reward mindset, then declining volatility is bad and would scare investors away. And then the ATHs may end, like in the case of Ethereum. If Bitcoin instead manages to "establish" itself as a more stable asset then the declining volatility would be an advantage, because you have to fear less harsh crashes, and could drive more risk-averse people and institutions into Bitcoin ...

A reasonable view, sir, and it's entirely possible that both could occur simultaneously, but I think that habit will never go away (human behavior) and is quite difficult to break. Greed and fear still tend to create overreactions. Here, too, two things usually arise, the speculators may lose interest, but long term investors/institutions, both large and small, usually prefer low volatility because it makes it easier to manage their risk. The result is clear the Bitcoin not only looks more viable as an investment, but it also becomes a last resort after everyone is exhausted by the constant market conditions.

[As-Soon-As]

1) if the cycle becomes too predictable it will be frontrun increasingly. People would sell earlier and earlier in the bull market, and buy earlier and earlier in the bear market, just because it "should work because it always worked".
2) the volatility is declining, that is a fact and I expect it to continue. The question is: will this attract or repel investors? If investors continue with a high risk-reward mindset, then declining volatility is bad and would scare investors away. And then the ATHs may end, like in the case of Ethereum. If Bitcoin instead manages to "establish" itself as a more stable asset then the declining volatility would be an advantage, because you have to fear less harsh crashes, and could drive more risk-averse people and institutions into Bitcoin ...

It has been held in the form of Bitcoin cycles for a long time, so why are people afraid? If they are afraid, then they should not expect success in the future. I like holding Bitcoin and although it is difficult for me to hold it for the long term, I still hold this Bitcoin holding and start the journey for the future. I can expect to get more benefits but those who are afraid to invest in Bitcoin, and are deprived of Bitcoin investment, how can they expect to be successful in the future?
So I think it is quite reasonable to buy Bitcoin investment during this period of volatility, if you invest in Bitcoin now, you will definitely be very successful during the next bull market. That is why I say that the longer the Bitcoin investment, the more successful it will be.

[johnsaributua]

It has been held in the form of Bitcoin cycles for a long time, so why are people afraid? If they are afraid, then they should not expect success in the future. I like holding Bitcoin and although it is difficult for me to hold it for the long term, I still hold this Bitcoin holding and start the journey for the future. I can expect to get more benefits but those who are afraid to invest in Bitcoin, and are deprived of Bitcoin investment, how can they expect to be successful in the future?
So I think it is quite reasonable to buy Bitcoin investment during this period of volatility, if you invest in Bitcoin now, you will definitely be very successful during the next bull market. That is why I say that the longer the Bitcoin investment, the more successful it will be.

The road to achieving success will certainly have many things to overcome, so I think if we are involved in this forum it is better not to feel anxious or afraid when facing problems.

Because holding Bitcoin for a long period of time will essentially increase our chances of achieving success. This is especially true for those who have held Bitcoin for years, who will need to hold on if situations sometimes force them to sell in order to achieve success. There are certainly many challenges they will face along the way.

Many people are sometimes misled by situations that make it difficult to hold on, so they ultimately choose to sell rather than hold on to their existing holdings. Ultimately, they are always the ones who fail to hold Bitcoin, leading to failure due to their anxiety and fear, which lead to total failure.

[arwin100]

1) if the cycle becomes too predictable it will be frontrun increasingly. People would sell earlier and earlier in the bull market, and buy earlier and earlier in the bear market, just because it "should work because it always worked".
2) the volatility is declining, that is a fact and I expect it to continue. The question is: will this attract or repel investors? If investors continue with a high risk-reward mindset, then declining volatility is bad and would scare investors away. And then the ATHs may end, like in the case of Ethereum. If Bitcoin instead manages to "establish" itself as a more stable asset then the declining volatility would be an advantage, because you have to fear less harsh crashes, and could drive more risk-averse people and institutions into Bitcoin ...

It has been held in the form of Bitcoin cycles for a long time, so why are people afraid? If they are afraid, then they should not expect success in the future. I like holding Bitcoin and although it is difficult for me to hold it for the long term, I still hold this Bitcoin holding and start the journey for the future. I can expect to get more benefits but those who are afraid to invest in Bitcoin, and are deprived of Bitcoin investment, how can they expect to be successful in the future?
So I think it is quite reasonable to buy Bitcoin investment during this period of volatility, if you invest in Bitcoin now, you will definitely be very successful during the next bull market. That is why I say that the longer the Bitcoin investment, the more successful it will be.

If they are afraid to step in and invest, then expect something hard to succeed on investing on Bitcoin. Usually  market rewards those people have conviction and patience.

I understand that its so difficult to hold when seeing the market is so volatile. But we can also see on those matters, who are those people will benefit on upcoming bull run and who are those people possible to missed out those event.

Also yeah the more longer people hold their Bitcoin, the more bigger chance they succeed if we base it on past incidents happen in history.

People should not fair about the volatility of Bitcoin, but rather see it as opportunity on which they can earn good rewards in future.

[Renampun]

I believe that as the market evolves, the four-year cycle will become less predictable and less influential.. since the market moves based on more factors, and people are starting to invest based on more considerations than just expecting a four-year cycle. Still, many people may be looking forward to the four-year cycle and hoping that Bitcoin will continue to follow the same historical pattern.. however, with the market becoming more unpredictable, it could align with their expectations, or it could turn out completely different from previous cycles.

[justdimin]

The road to achieving success will certainly have many things to overcome, so I think if we are involved in this forum it is better not to feel anxious or afraid when facing problems.

Because holding Bitcoin for a long period of time will essentially increase our chances of achieving success. This is especially true for those who have held Bitcoin for years, who will need to hold on if situations sometimes force them to sell in order to achieve success. There are certainly many challenges they will face along the way.

Many people are sometimes misled by situations that make it difficult to hold on, so they ultimately choose to sell rather than hold on to their existing holdings. Ultimately, they are always the ones who fail to hold Bitcoin, leading to failure due to their anxiety and fear, which lead to total failure.

We are literally talking about being great at something, and it doesn't matter what we are talking about it is always the same path to get there, which is hard work. I agree that holding bitcoin, even though it looks like you just have to do nothing but wait, could be very tough when you see these bear markets like right now. We have gone from 125k to now near 60k levels, and when you consider something like that, it is not really easy to just say that all you should be doing is holding.

We can't do that and we should not consider this a problem, but at the same time we should not consider this easy at all. We are going to end up with a lot of problems if we are not careful, like if we just sell because we are afraid it will go down even more, is a problem.

Instead, most people suggest DCA, which means instead of selling for a loss and getting out because you are afraid, you should instead be more excited and buy even more because you know it will recover. That is the type of thing that is not easy to ingrain into your brain because your brain has a fight or flight that has been settled since the caveman era. That means it is not going to be easy to see something so bad in a situation and not try to fight, and DCA is against everything biologically correct for us. But economically and financially, that is the correct option.