Smartprofit
Legendary

Activity: 3108
Merit: 2464
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August 02, 2026, 06:21:34 PM |
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Anyone that thinks he can win without luck isn't being realistic enough to himself because no one can win by their own making. When you understand that luck is the highest, you will gamble with caution because you don't want to run at loss unnecessary. You will plan your gambling activities and how much to gamble with that wouldn't affect you financially.
Games like casino games are purely based on luck because if anyone thinks that it's by power or know how, while gambling on casino games, such person doesn't know how gambling work. But you see gambling on sport betting, just by being lucky is not enough, because you need to know how to analyze games, like the strength of both teams, their present form and their head to head record, to know who is the favourite, because you just can not play an accumulated game by choosing like 10 teams that are doing very badly or the less favourite and be expecting to win by being lucky. That is like expecting the impossible to happen, which makes your chances of winning very slim. In any form of gambling, analysis and other factors are needed to determine victory, not just luck. In fact, I don't really believe in luck unless you've put in some effort. And I believe a large capital is crucial for your win rate. As long as you avoid greed, it's possible to profit from casino gambling. The hardest part in gambling is controlling your desire or emotions to win more, which is what leads to losses. In most casino games, the outcome depends solely on luck... I'm referring to games like roulette, craps, or slots. Unfortunately, in these games, neither skill, knowledge, nor experience will help you. In the long run, the advantage in these games is always on the casino's side, not the player's. If a player is willing to make just one bet and then quit, then yes, there are winning strategies in these games. If you have a very large amount of money, then using these strategies, you have a good chance of winning. However, your winnings will be very small compared to the amount bet.💁
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Fortify
Legendary

Activity: 3486
Merit: 1276
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August 02, 2026, 06:38:46 PM |
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So lately I've been thinking about how much probability and variance affects betting basically overtime. For instance let's consider a game with a 55% probability of winning which actually gives us a 45% probability of losing which basically means after 1000 independent bets the expected number of wins should be something like;
Which basically means the results between roughly 534 and 566 wins (550 ± 15.7) are statistically normal despite having a positive edge now what if we consider games with way smaller winning probability which obviously makes our variance smaller too. Now what do with do with the fact that there is a probability I still could lose 700 games worse case scenario? Because it looks like overtime you'll still run into net loss.
Casinos have already thought of this. Yes, it's possible that you might gain a tiny advantage from the calculations that you came up with, but if a casino wins 53% of the time with low rollers and 52% of the time with high rollers, they're still ultimately winning and it just means that you might lose at a slower rate. They obviously want to attract the so-called VIP users who spend a lot and would give them these advantages anyway, because they'll be passing more profit through by volume. This is not some special secret that you've found that will suddenly make you into a profitable player, because at all times the house will have an edge built into every game. It's fine if you want to capture a few more wins, but it means nothing in the long run.
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Wakate
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August 02, 2026, 06:45:42 PM |
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No no no, I'm not talking about betting with 55% winning probability. I'm talking about the situation when it's a fact that you win 55% of the time. Like it's done. Of course, as another poster said it above, even 99.5% probability of winning doesn't mean you can bet all your money because "you will surely win". I wouldn't recommend anyone to bet everything they have even if the probability winning was 99.9%. Any gambler should always bet only what he\she can afford to lose.
There is this mixed feelings in gamblers mind or do I say they always believe that they would make it through gambling but deep down they knows that is not going to be that possible, instead of them to give limits that is when you would see them putting my much efforts gambling in order to restore back what they had already lost while gambling. There are also some people who look at how much they have spent gambling, and quitting is like trying to surrender the whole amount to the gambling site, therefore you would see them continuing to gamble just to make sure they have restored it back, at this point you would see them gambling out of proportion and even when they gets addicted they wouldn't know but can only be seen and noticed through the next person. It is not really easy to gamble everytime and be making profits from your bets. You can make money from gambling now and later lose the money. Some gamblers do have the mindset that the more they gamble the high chances they can be making money seeing frequent gambling as a way of life since they believe in consistency for them to become profitable over a certain period of time.
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sompitonov
Legendary

Activity: 2240
Merit: 1501
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August 02, 2026, 06:53:23 PM |
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I'm not sure that larger amounts provide an advantage, but I do think that professionals with this understanding can act more aggressively, for example in deep-stack poker, when they psychologically influence their opponents at the table by making aggressive bets and displaying strength to intimidate their opponents. This is one example I can think of; perhaps this applies to other games as well, although it won't help much in sports betting, perhaps only slightly improving risk management and helping them endure a prolonged losing streak.
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danadc
Legendary

Activity: 1764
Merit: 1054
Hire Bitcointalk Camp. Manager @ r7promotions.com
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August 02, 2026, 07:17:46 PM |
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Probability & variance both are the reasons why gambling results can be different from expectation. Even if someone has a mathematical statistical advantage, the short term results can still be unpredictable because of the impact of randomness as well as variance. A 55% win rate doesn't mean every 100 bets will always bring an exactly 55 wins. Variance creates unexpected winning or losses before the long term trend appears. That's why money management is important cause a good strategy can still fail if the player cannot handle the fluctuations. Understanding probability helps a lot but managing risk is what keeps someone in the gambling
From the knowledge I acquired at university, probabilities are very useful, but the random factors implemented in casinos, and when they favor the house edge, are what changes everything. That's why we, as players, depend on luck; we can't make exact calculations because we can have the best predictions and be totally sure that we will win, and we won't win simply because of that random factor. And so far there is no tool that indicates what the random factor is to use in a player's favor.
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ChocolateBitcoinK
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August 02, 2026, 07:19:53 PM |
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I read through and i saw Maths and then i saw gambling in same sentence and i just laughed. I laughed because i know how many times i have tried to predict odds on sporty bet using maths and how that has failed mutilple times and has made me accept the fact that when it comes to gambling, your maths principles cant really help you here, then you now have the unpredictable odds that can be thrown your way. I try not to thnk about bettting in any mathematical terms, i should have my betting money and go to work, that was then though not now anymore.
I think players' opinions on this matter may be divided. There are certainly people who believe that a mathematical approach to gambling matters, but I think those who have been playing for at least a few years understand how important luck is in gambling, actually even more so than mathematical calculations. Although, if these two things can be combined, I think a player's chances of winning will increase slightly. There may be a mathematical element to gambling, but it is harder to understand than you might think, which is why I am more of a believer that gambling outcomes are random and based on luck. So far, I don't think anyone has ever mathematically proven a sure win, so luck is paramount. Luck is something we can't control, and that's why winning is something we never know if it will actually happen. So in the long run, the only thing that applies is that gambling is a game of luck, and full of uncertainty. You don't expect to win, but you can win, and on the other hand, you keep playing hoping to win, but you never find a win.
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citywise2
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August 02, 2026, 07:35:17 PM |
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I read through and i saw Maths and then i saw gambling in same sentence and i just laughed. I laughed because i know how many times i have tried to predict odds on sporty bet using maths and how that has failed mutilple times and has made me accept the fact that when it comes to gambling, your maths principles cant really help you here, then you now have the unpredictable odds that can be thrown your way. I try not to thnk about bettting in any mathematical terms, i should have my betting money and go to work, that was then though not now anymore.
I think players' opinions on this matter may be divided. There are certainly people who believe that a mathematical approach to gambling matters, but I think those who have been playing for at least a few years understand how important luck is in gambling, actually even more so than mathematical calculations. Although, if these two things can be combined, I think a player's chances of winning will increase slightly. There may be a mathematical element to gambling, but it is harder to understand than you might think, which is why I am more of a believer that gambling outcomes are random and based on luck. So far, I don't think anyone has ever mathematically proven a sure win, so luck is paramount. Luck is something we can't control, and that's why winning is something we never know if it will actually happen. So in the long run, the only thing that applies is that gambling is a game of luck, and full of uncertainty. You don't expect to win, but you can win, and on the other hand, you keep playing hoping to win, but you never find a win. I am in agreement with your take. he mathematical element only gets to work to an extent and that is it, whatever going forward becomes totally dependant on luck and that is if someone is dealing with a site that is not rigged. Most times you will see your mathematics element fail to hold its ground despite logic being in its favour and that is how you know that the house always win in the long run.
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Mr Reporter
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August 02, 2026, 09:30:03 PM |
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It is not really easy to gamble everytime and be making profits from your bets. You can make money from gambling now and later lose the money. Some gamblers do have the mindset that the more they gamble the high chances they can be making money seeing frequent gambling as a way of life since they believe in consistency for them to become profitable over a certain period of time.
The hard truth about gambling is always the profit part, just as you have mentioned is really not easy to make a good profit from gambling just like that, because as it stands the house always has the edge, and it what should keep running in every gambler's mind is that the odds are set up to favour the house all the time…it might give you a full weeks of winning but it does not give long term winning…most people don't lose bet because of staking big it because they keep playing and that's what makes them to lose, and there should be nothing like consistency in gambling because to me that just thickness in losing…
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Decimetre
Full Member
 

Activity: 210
Merit: 122
Bitcoin has come to stay
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August 02, 2026, 10:08:21 PM |
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It is not really easy to gamble everytime and be making profits from your bets. You can make money from gambling now and later lose the money. Some gamblers do have the mindset that the more they gamble the high chances they can be making money seeing frequent gambling as a way of life since they believe in consistency for them to become profitable over a certain period of time.
The hard truth about gambling is always the profit part, just as you have mentioned is really not easy to make a good profit from gambling just like that, because as it stands the house always has the edge, and it what should keep running in every gambler's mind is that the odds are set up to favour the house all the time…it might give you a full weeks of winning but it does not give long term winning…most people don't lose bet because of staking big it because they keep playing and that's what makes them to lose, and there should be nothing like consistency in gambling because to me that just thickness in losing… Every gambler understands that sometimes you win and other times you loss. That is the code that keeps them going even when they are loosing continuously. At that point, they then state that what they need is consistency that their time is coming soon: a game of luck! If gambling gives full weeks of winning, such gambler could be tempted to gamble additional weeks even when he has started loosing he continues and at the end, the end result is loss. Winning to a beginner can make you stop gambling for the day in order to secure the one you have won but to a pro gambler, winning is as good as losing. When they're winning, they won't quit, when they're losing, they won't also quit. They always have reasons for continuing if not to make up for their losses, it will be to utilise their lucky day.
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fruktik
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August 03, 2026, 04:54:22 AM |
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This question may seem common but is centered on the major challenge face by most players I will state on experience, the large number is of no advantage though could be for others as the risk is always high several times which I make used of large number, the disadvantage overwhelmed the advantages as the risk is always higher, I have tried some games, where increase of numbers causes more losses, just like every game poses a risk the combination of all the risk is the possibility of failure despite that gambling is more of luck some high risk will always remain impossible.
If mathematics could increase the odds of winning, then this factor would become widely known. In today's technological world, it's quite difficult to conceal such information. There have been countless attempts, but all in vain. It doesn't produce the desired results. It's time to truly accept this fact. Let go of attempts to find the Holy Grail and simply enjoy the moments of the game, hoping that at some point, luck will be on our side.
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