There is a clear schism in my altcoin investment plans.
In the long run, I believe that the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies will reach more than 100 trillion US dollars in terms of USD current purchasing power and that, in a couple of decades, there will be many many Bitcoin-like cryptocurrencies with market values reaching a trillion dollars. (Of course, there is a significant probability that I am mistaken and cryptocurrencies will disappear or remain marginal.)
In the short to medium run, I predict that the prices of cryptocurrencies (and especially altcoins!) will fall remarkably, as a stock market crash is likely in the near future. I estimate that the probability of a stock market crash - a decline of at least 50% in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index from its all-time high - is somewhere 20-30% per year. (The March 2020 mini-crash showed that Bitcoin fell much more than the stock market, and altcoins much more than Bitcoin.)
Therefore, my long-term and short-term forecasts regarding altcoin prices are in sharp contrast.
One solution to this dilemma would be to use DCA, but set aside half of the funds for a stock market crash era ?
