Be careful about Patterns in investing in Bitcoin

[greysonz]

Hello friends.
There are a lot of discussions about 4-year cycles right now, and I'm shocked at how the community at X, as well as analysts from various online publications, are trying to find patterns in everything. I understand that this is the nature of our psychology, but first of all, patterns are dangerous because everyone sees them. As far as I understand from the posts I've read here on the forum, whales and market makers have the most influence. I'm sorry if these concepts are included in each other, it's just that I've been on the forum recently. And I just want to express my opinion and listen to criticism. So, these big participants in the crypto market will make decisions about trading manipulations by looking at both the chart and the crowd of small cryptans.
And secondly: history rhymes, but it doesn't repeat itself exactly. In last years, based on the news: Saylor warned about the sale for the first time, and the BTC ETF, Trump and his crazy moves... I understand that the crypto market has always changed, even if I don't know the whole history of Bitcoin, but I think the articles are making the biggest headlines right now. And they correspond to reality! I see that many people write about DCA, that it is a salvation for beginners like me. And at the moment, I don't understand the traders who are trying to trade now. It seems to me that the bitcoin market is a raging sea that will pull down any risky guy.

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2026/07/27/UhKSiv.jpg

[aoluain]

Well when it comes to trading and traders there are definitely the experienced ones who look for
patterns because that can give an indication as to what way the market is likely to move. This is not
a new trait, it gas been going on since forever even in the traditional markets.

The 4 year cycle is a pattern which has held up for every halving event so far and thats not a guarantee
that it will remain so for the next.

Patterns are not guaranteed but as I said as they form they 'can be' a future indicator for the markets.

[lionheart78]

The four-year cycle pattern had been in there for several cycles.  History repeats itself, the same way the four year pattern repeating itself every halving.  But, it is also logical to say that this pattern can cease to exist because there is no permanent in this world.

You are right that whales and market makers mostly influence the trading market, but if we somehow notice their actions and interpret them the right way, we can ride with their decisions and cash out with huge profit.  

[greysonz]

Well when it comes to trading and traders there are definitely the experienced ones who look for
patterns because that can give an indication as to what way the market is likely to move. This is not
a new trait, it gas been going on since forever even in the traditional markets.

The 4 year cycle is a pattern which has held up for every halving event so far and thats not a guarantee
that it will remain so for the next.

Patterns are not guaranteed but as I said as they form they 'can be' a future indicator for the markets.

But are these uncertain chances worth taking the time and effort to do so? There may be such attempts to look for regularity and pay attention to it (and risk money!) are they related to the desire of crypto enthusiasts to simply gain self-affirmation and have an interesting time? Maybe it's better to invest and not look at the chart at all...

The four-year cycle pattern had been in there for several cycles.  History repeats itself, the same way the four year pattern repeating itself every halving.  But, it is also logical to say that this pattern can cease to exist because there is no permanent in this world.

You are right that whales and market makers mostly influence the trading market, but if we somehow notice their actions and interpret them the right way, we can ride with their decisions and cash out with huge profit.  

But there is no event in the crypto world that repeats all the time, so I want to assume that the more often a pattern repeats, the less likely it is to repeat itself next time.

[qurbanshah02]

It has become quite popular in the trading learning market these days and there is a lot of talk about it on social media because some experts who consider themselves good traders say that this pattern works very well to profit from Bitcoin, but I think that Bitcoin does not use a single method of operating itself on any one thing. The price of Bitcoin goes up and down and stays at the same price, and the news from around the world, good and bad things about crypto, are all attached to it. I have not understood such a pattern till date and have analyzed it very well for myself and have succeeded in it anyway. But I cannot succeed at every new price because the market is driven by news to confuse our minds. That is why it goes up and down so that it does not have a single purpose. Both the pattern and the one who teaches it should be avoided so that we do not waste our time and trade with our own understanding.

[PVequalNRT]

The four-year cycle pattern had been in there for several cycles.  History repeats itself, the same way the four year pattern repeating itself every halving.  But, it is also logical to say that this pattern can cease to exist because there is no permanent in this world.

You are right that whales and market makers mostly influence the trading market, but if we somehow notice their actions and interpret them the right way, we can ride with their decisions and cash out with huge profit.  

Nothing is permanent but Bitcoin halving is permanent. It's set to occur every four years and this event is the booster of the market. If halving exist, there is still potential in the 4 year cycle except if demand reduces from institutiond and as well as the government. Directly or indirectly, they are among the journey how Bitcoin was able to break all time high from previous cycle, only retail investors cannot make the 4 year cycle to be a big event.

[greysonz]

It has become quite popular in the trading learning market these days and there is a lot of talk about it on social media because some experts who consider themselves good traders say that this pattern works very well to profit from Bitcoin, but I think that Bitcoin does not use a single method of operating itself on any one thing. The price of Bitcoin goes up and down and stays at the same price, and the news from around the world, good and bad things about crypto, are all attached to it. I have not understood such a pattern till date and have analyzed it very well for myself and have succeeded in it anyway. But I cannot succeed at every new price because the market is driven by news to confuse our minds. That is why it goes up and down so that it does not have a single purpose. Both the pattern and the one who teaches it should be avoided so that we do not waste our time and trade with our own understanding.

I understand perfectly well that the price of bitcoin eventually rises to new highs, so at first glance it seems "whoever invests in any case will not be offended." But as far as I can see on the general chart, sometimes there were times when you had to wait two years before that, which is called the "crypto winter". I come to the conclusion that if you remove excitement and attempts to predict something from investing as much as possible, then success will come sooner or later. But it will definitely come.

[Marvelockg]

I see that many people write about DCA, that it is a salvation for beginners like me. And at the moment, I don't understand the traders who are trying to trade now. It seems to me that the bitcoin market is a raging sea that will pull down any risky guy.

patterns especially the ones that have reoccurred so many times point to a sense of possibilities in the future and with it, though it might not outrightly happen the way past event have played out, it still gives an hint of the things one should expect in the future. with the DCA, you are not too restrained by patterns like like the bitcoin four year halving pattern because you tend to experience everything both the ones that happen in the short run and the ones that happen in the long run. as an investor, you learn from pattern but they are not a defining factor that outrightly decide on how your investment decision is going to look like.
 

[MusaMohamed]

Hello friends.
There are a lot of discussions about 4-year cycles right now, and I'm shocked at how the community at X, as well as analysts from various online publications, are trying to find patterns in everything. I understand that this is the nature of our psychology, but first of all, patterns are dangerous because everyone sees them.

Cycles and patterns are for two main things: price and psychology.

The psychology of market cycles.
Bitcoin market cycle.
Pyschological pitfalls of market cycle.

As far as I understand from the posts I've read here on the forum, whales and market makers have the most influence

It's simply true. The are big players behind the scene even you are not aware of their existence and market manipulation. They do their jobs (manipulations), you can not do that but you can take advantage of their manipulations and get profit with your investment portfolio.

They fud the market, dump it, make it crash to cheaper prices for accumulation, then you can follow them, accumulate similarly, then hold for their next manipulations that bump the market, and you can take profit.

[Bluedrem]

Those who trade need to keep track of the market situation at all times. And if they trade according to the minute-by-minute pattern of Bitcoin, they become profitable. That is, the pattern is for traders.
If you talk about long-term investors in Bitcoin, then the situation is the opposite. For those who invest in Bitcoin through DCA or other methods and they want to hold their portfolio for a few halvings, they do not need much market analysis of Bitcoin. What is needed is confidence and discretionary income. No matter how well Bitcoin performs and how low the risk is, people are always told to use discretionary income to invest in Bitcoin. That is, since Bitcoin is still volatile and can do anything, you should invest money here that will last even if you do not have the money.

[DabsPoorVersion]

Hello friends.
There are a lot of discussions about 4-year cycles right now, and I'm shocked at how the community at X, as well as analysts from various online publications, are trying to find patterns in everything. I understand that this is the nature of our psychology, but first of all, patterns are dangerous because everyone sees them. As far as I understand from the posts I've read here on the forum, whales and market makers have the most influence. I'm sorry if these concepts are included in each other, it's just that I've been on the forum recently. And I just want to express my opinion and listen to criticism. So, these big participants in the crypto market will make decisions about trading manipulations by looking at both the chart and the crowd of small cryptans.
And secondly: history rhymes, but it doesn't repeat itself exactly. In last years, based on the news: Saylor warned about the sale for the first time, and the BTC ETF, Trump and his crazy moves... I understand that the crypto market has always changed, even if I don't know the whole history of Bitcoin, but I think the articles are making the biggest headlines right now. And they correspond to reality! I see that many people write about DCA, that it is a salvation for beginners like me. And at the moment, I don't understand the traders who are trying to trade now. It seems to me that the bitcoin market is a raging sea that will pull down any risky guy.

It is certain that the market has changed over time. But I don't think that it's useless to check cycles. Even if that pattern is visible to everyone does not mean it is not useful. Those patterns that is visible to us are mostly influenced by traders behaviour, liquidity, supply and demand.

One more thing when it comes to trading Bitcoin, it is risky but not reckless unless you do trading without any strategy. All trading activities depends on the trader's strategy. Some use a leverage which increases the risk of every trading position. While some are taking using a proper size of trading position.

[noorman0]

What's happening so far is a manifestation of a market psychology pattern based on a four-year cycle, and you, among some market players, are starting to try to counter this pattern. The more counter psychology, even through simple thinking, the greater the likelihood that the pattern will be violated.

Currently, too many news media and speculators are trying to correlate current macroeconomic phenomena as signs that the pattern will repeat itself.

[Dunamisx]

Having more insights about bitcoin network is needed in this regard because we need to understand how a particular pattern would be our own strategy to either trade or invest in Bitcoin, that is why we must be able to discover our area of competency in Bitcoin network and also develop more interest to know more on how we could maximize every opportunity in such regard for profiting, anything we do must be to the actualization of our goals in Bitcoin.

[Agbe]

I come to the conclusion that if you remove excitement and attempts to predict something from investing as much as possible, then success will come sooner or later. But it will definitely come.

Bitcoin price is dynamic (volatile) and it is not static therefore even the four years cycle is unpredictable. When I first came to the forum, I was also told and read that the All Time High is a four years interval and it occurred in 2021 and the next one would be 2024 after the halving but something happened, in October 2023, the market started given indication to start the bull market and in March or or May, bitcoin hit the All Time High before the halving and everyone was shocked and after the halving, it hit another all time high again so we experienced 3 or 4 All Time High in 2024. But the cycle of halving in the 4 years interval was accurate. And we don't know what will happen because we are expecting the halving in 2028. Bitcoin investment is not for those who want to get rich quickly but for those are persevere with it. The rising and falling of the price should not both you instead take each of them as your opportunity. At the long term, you will be happy. Perseverance is the key word in bitcoin investment.

[Swordsoffreedom]

There are a lot of discussions about 4-year cycles right now, and I'm shocked at how the community at X, as well as analysts from various online publications, are trying to find patterns in everything

Correct it is not right to assume that only previous cycle will be copy pasted.

As Bitcoin mature it becomes difficult to predict future just by looking its historical pattern nowadays. You know, Spot ETF, institutional capital, treasury company, derivatives and global liquidity are now influencing market more than ever.

patterns are dangerous because everyone sees them. As far as I understand from the posts I've read here on the forum, whales and market makers have the most influence. I'm sorry if these concepts are included in each other, it's just that I've been on the forum recently. And I just want to express my opinion and listen to criticism. So, these big participants in the crypto market will make decisions about trading manipulations by looking at both the chart and the crowd of small cryptans.

When retail takes position with same chart pattern or same expectation then large liquidity providers and institutional trader exploit that sentiment. Mining economy is more important to me than price pattern in this case, as this is only recurring event in Bitcoin network, if you know.

history rhymes, but it doesn't repeat itself exactly.

perfect. however in the case of Bitcoin the thing that really repeat every four year is not price movement but the halving.

It seems to me that the bitcoin market is a raging sea that will pull down any risky guy.

The reason for decrease in volatility is not only market unpredictability. Bitcoin is now much bigger asset class and liquidity is much higher than before. So like in 2011-2013, a big whale buying or selling cannot easily shake whole market. Market structure has changed so volatility is gradually compressing.

[Crypto Library]

The four-year cycle pattern had been in there for several cycles.  History repeats itself, the same way the four year pattern repeating itself every halving.  But, it is also logical to say that this pattern can cease to exist because there is no permanent in this world.

You are right that whales and market makers mostly influence the trading market, but if we somehow notice their actions and interpret them the right way, we can ride with their decisions and cash out with huge profit.  

But there is no event in the crypto world that repeats all the time, so I want to assume that the more often a pattern repeats, the less likely it is to repeat itself next time.

If you think that market history I mean market charts will repeat themselves in the same line every time, then this will be nothing but foolishness.

Here history repeats itself, meaning that the matter should be understood in this way, that depending on the halving of Bitcoin, its bear and bull season occurs. For example, every time the bitcoin bull season and the all time high price created after the halving the time gap like around 1year to 1.5 years halving period , starting around a year and ending at 1.5years. and after that creating the new all time high price bitcoin goes again to the bear season to make the bear bottom price and currently we are in this road. Maybe in the end of 2026 we will able to see that.

And it is not the case that it will up or dump the same percentage every time. Because in the previous market, the market volume was not so much. For example, the market volume of Bitcoin is currently high and therefore its movement will be a little slower than before. It is like a person moves fast when he is slim and cannot do it fast when he becomes fat. The reason for saying this is that if we look at the previous bear market of Bitcoin, then it would have gone above 80% and created a bear bottom price. But gradually its amount is decreasing. For example, last time, Maybee dumped like 78%. But this time the market volume is higher than last time, so maybe it will be lower or around 70% and create a bear bottom price. Although no one can guarantee with the exact amount. So the main outcome is here bitcoin repeat its pattern but not in the same line on the chart.

[laspol65]

There are a lot of discussions about 4-year cycles right now, and I'm shocked at how the community at X, as well as analysts from various online publications, are trying to find patterns in everything. I understand that this is the nature of our psychology, but first of all, patterns are dangerous because everyone sees them. As far as I understand from the posts I've read here on the forum, whales and market makers have the most influence. I'm sorry if these concepts are included in each other, it's just that I've been on the forum recently. And I just want to express my opinion and listen to criticism. So, these big participants in the crypto market will make decisions about trading manipulations by looking at both the chart and the crowd of small cryptans.

When traders trade, they look for different strategies and patterns, it is natural because there are some indications of future targets. So those who take risks must trade, it is natural, trading is very risky and Bitcoin provides long-term holding security. According to the four-year cycle,
it has been happening since the past, but this is nothing new, the price of Bitcoin will improve further in the future, which can be felt by looking at the chart. However, there is no freedom in trading, freedom is found most in long-term Bitcoin holding.

And they correspond to reality! I see that many people write about DCA, that it is a salvation for beginners like me. And at the moment, I don't understand the traders who are trying to trade now. It seems to me that the bitcoin market is a raging sea that will pull down any risky guy.

Those who invest according to the DCA method are the ones who are more likely to hold their Bitcoin for a long time, while those who invest in Bitcoin for a short term and are greedy for money can sell their Bitcoin at any time.
It is not advisable to take such risks, so both new and old investors should invest in Bitcoin according to the DCA method. Because this four-year cycle has been proven for a long time and will continue to be proven in the future,

[dzungmobile]

Those who invest according to the DCA method are the ones who are more likely to hold their Bitcoin for a long time, while those who invest in Bitcoin for a short term and are greedy for money can sell their Bitcoin at any time.

Investment must be long term as it is what investment is. People can make their investments with different strategies and Dollar Cost Averaging is only one of many available strategies. It's simple and profitable so it is recommended by many experienced investors to newbies.

People who spend money to buy bitcoin but look for profit in short term are not investors. What they're doing are like speculation or gambling so you can not call them as investors while speculators or gamblers are more relevant.

Cycle is important
Bitcoin market is like other markets, has its cycle. Focus on its cycle!

[As-Soon-As]

But are these uncertain chances worth taking the time and effort to do so?

Of course, it makes sense, because people will be more and more driven by this uncertain future. Because Bitcoin has been around for a long time and has gained credibility, many people want to secure their future financially by investing in Bitcoin.

There may be such attempts to look for regularity and pay attention to it (and risk money!) are they related to the desire of crypto enthusiasts to simply gain self-affirmation and have an interesting time?

Those who have invested in Bitcoin are the only ones who are optimistic here, having a long-term Bitcoin investment is the most important. Where each person gives this Bitcoin the highest priority for expressing his self-satisfaction and self-acceptance, it plays a sufficient role in financially securing the uncertain future.

Maybe it's better to invest and not look at the chart at all...

Those who are overly greedy investors are the ones who repeatedly look at the Bitcoin price increasing, and when they make a small profit, they give up Bitcoin investment. Not all investors are actually patient, they only come to accept trading.

But long-term Bitcoin investors just buy Bitcoin again and again, buy when the price of Bitcoin is low, and buy when the price of Bitcoin is high. Buying Bitcoin creates a relationship with long-term holding, so I won't blame them for looking at the chart, because the Bitcoin chart is a target.
Many people look at this chart and make sure that the price of Bitcoin will rise after the halving. So we will give the highest priority to long-term Bitcoin investment.

[SPIDERMAN008]

Yeah, There is no guarantee that the price of Bitcoin will increase in the same way as it did in the past. That is why, it is not right to think that the chart will be exactly like the copy paste as in the past. Because the crypto market of the past and the current global economy and political situation are not the same, this is true. If you invested at any time in the past and held it for 4 years, it must have reached a profitable position. Although there was a lot of price volatility in the meantime. But it is difficult to find someone who has lost money by holding for 4 years in the past. However, no new investor should spend money on Bitcoin with a short time trading mindset based on social media or news. If the purpose is long-term holding, then the fund that can be locked in for a long time can be used to buy Bitcoin and invest in Bitcoin for a period of 4 years or more, which increases the chances of giving him more profit in the long term. But one should never invest in Bitcoin for the purpose of short-term trading.