old coins basically arent moving anymore, is this the tell everyone keeps missin

[Tiaramane]

I have been staring at on-chain data way too much lately and wanted to see what people think about this instead of keeping it to myself

So long-term holder supply just hit a new all-time high, something like 83% of all BTC in existence hasn't moved in over 155 days. That's not just a new record, it's the highest it's ever been. More than the 2021 top, more than the 2018 bottom, and more than any point going back years.

What's weird is this is happening while the price is still down around 50% from the October ATH. Normally when you see holders locking up like this, it's either deep in a bear market bottom or right before some kind of turn, not really in the middle of a choppy sideways grind like we're in now.

Heard someone point out that reactivation of old coins has been basically at its lowest level since 2012, and that's with BTC at 60k+ vs. sub-$10 back then. So it's not like people are sitting on worthless bags out of coins; these are coins worth real money, just not moving.

A couple of ways to read this, imo.

could be genuine conviction, people who bought years ago just don't care about a 50% pullback and aren't selling regardless of price action.

could also just mean supply is getting more illiquid over time as more coins get held by long-term whales and institutions, which isn't really a bullish signal on its own, just a structural shift in how much BTC is actually available to trade

It's also worth asking if this dynamic even matters anymore now that ETFs exist. It doesn't matter how tight the retail supply gets if institutions can just create new shares or whatever mechanism they use to source coins.

Not really trying to push a narrative herr, just think, it's interesting that the old hands accumulating during weakness thing is happening at record levels while price action still looks kind of ugly. Is anyone else digging into the on-chain side rn, or is everyone just watching the price and ignoring this stuff

[Sanitough]

A couple of ways to read this, imo.

could be genuine conviction, people who bought years ago just don't care about a 50% pullback and aren't selling regardless of price action.

could also just mean supply is getting more illiquid over time as more coins get held by long-term whales and institutions, which isn't really a bullish signal on its own, just a structural shift in how much BTC is actually available to trade

Bitcoin is different now compared to its early years. Even after a big drop, people are not panicking the same way anymore, especially since institutional investors are still holding.

Many are probably looking at the current price as a good chance to slowly buy and prepare for the next halving. Based on the previous cycles, Bitcoin usually becomes stronger around that period.

So instead of leaving the market, some are already building their position early and waiting for another possible all-time high.

[tbct_mt2]

So long-term holder supply just hit a new all-time high, something like 83% of all BTC in existence hasn't moved in over 155 days. That's not just a new record, it's the highest it's ever been. More than the 2021 top, more than the 2018 bottom, and more than any point going back years.

What's weird is this is happening while the price is still down around 50% from the October ATH. Normally when you see holders locking up like this, it's either deep in a bear market bottom or right before some kind of turn, not really in the middle of a choppy sideways grind like we're in now.

It's Bitcoin Spot ETF effects because people will have less need of selling their bitcoins too often through Bitcoin Spot ETFs. In addition, with time, there will be more people deeply understand about Bitcoin, the market, and the magic of holding so that they have more motivation of holding and actually do it with their Bitcoin portfolios.

It is shown in the hodl wave chart too with waves for 1-3 years expand.
https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/hodl-waves/

This chart too
https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/5-year-hodl-wave/

[Dunamisx]

So long-term holder supply just hit a new all-time high, something like 83% of all BTC in existence hasn't moved in over 155 days. That's not just a new record, it's the highest it's ever been. More than the 2021 top, more than the 2018 bottom, and more than any point going back years.

Very possible, even though there is no statistics or any proof that you can use in backing this up.

But I want you to know this that if you subtract the number of institutional investors and whales holding Bitcoin and also deduct from the total supply the number of Bitcoin yet to be mined, you will see that most holders are found in this category and are not moving their coins by selling, but that doesn't still means that other holders couldn't achieve their market decisions being individual small holders, there is always a market buy and sell each time.

[knuckey]

Not really trying to push a narrative herr, just think, it's interesting that the old hands accumulating during weakness thing is happening at record levels while price action still looks kind of ugly. Is anyone else digging into the on-chain side rn, or is everyone just watching the price and ignoring this stuff

Of course, not all ignore the on-chain side, the large number of holders could be because investors are holding on to save it and on the other hand, there may be many inactive wallets that store a small portion of bitcoin in them so it looks like there are many holders, in the bullish phase last year, there must have been many micro investors who bought bitcoin but because they had already lost, many kept it, and most people have also thought about the halving event or the 4-year trend which is always profitable, maybe that is the main reason investors hold on to save their bitcoin.

[Upgrade00]

could be genuine conviction, people who bought years ago just don't care about a 50% pullback and aren't selling regardless of price action.

could also just mean supply is getting more illiquid over time as more coins get held by long-term whales and institutions, which isn't really a bullish signal on its own, just a structural shift in how much BTC is actually available to trade

People who bought years ago (before the last ATH) and held up to $100k+ will definitely hold through the dip aswell. Those likely to sell in this market condition are those that bought during the hype, missed the top and cut their losses on the way down. This is usually what leads to a quick dump after the price goes up, it's a good thing we're having less of that.

It is a bullish signal if more holders are long term ones (whales or retail). Stronger hands keep the price at its right value.

[DiMarxist]

A couple of ways to read this, imo.

could be genuine conviction, people who bought years ago just don't care about a 50% pullback and aren't selling regardless of price action.

could also just mean supply is getting more illiquid over time as more coins get held by long-term whales and institutions, which isn't really a bullish signal on its own, just a structural shift in how much BTC is actually available to trade

Bitcoin is different now compared to its early years. Even after a big drop, people are not panicking the same way anymore, especially since institutional investors are still holding.

Many are probably looking at the current price as a good chance to slowly buy and prepare for the next halving. Based on the previous cycles, Bitcoin usually becomes stronger around that period.

So instead of leaving the market, some are already building their position early and waiting for another possible all-time high.

This is because investors has learnt to trust Bitcoin over time, due to it historical and tract records of tracing back in price even when it gets to a all time low. The time people used to Panic and sell when even there was the slightest change in terms of the market price was those early days, when bitcoin was still trying to break through.

These days investors has learnt to trust Bitcoin because, over time they have come to the realization of the facts that Bitcoin is not what been afraid based on experience which they have gathered over the years. At this point in time anyone who is afraid of investing in Bitcoin should be considered as a newbie because, only people who are new to Bitcoin will be afraid of investing in it.

Bitcoin has proven time without number that it can give investors profits by bouncing back and hitting all time record. So when you see people hold back their Bitcoin holding over time no matter the low that Bitcoin records just know that they are matured enough to handle the pressure which comes with change in price.

[BlackHatCoiner]

Traditional on-chain metrics don't tell the whole story anymore. A huge chunk of that illiquid supply is actually old whales moving to institutional custody.

ETFs trade heavily off-chain and that makes retail supply look tighter than it really is. I wouldn't rely on any on-chain metrics.

[ColdLava40]

I have been staring at on-chain data way too much lately and wanted to see what people think about this instead of keeping it to myself

How accurate could these on chain data be?

Those who bought years ago, who didn't sell during the last Ath, don't you think they are not going to be interested in any kind of pull back. It's either those coins were lost or the owners just are not willing to sell.

if they wanted, they would have done that long ago. I believe hands right now are folder as even the market is undecided on what happens next. Retail traders are still active in the market only long term holders would want to sit back and watch.

[Findingnemo]

Or did people start to realize the significance of HODL and act accordingly?

It makes sense to hold their coins, right? Because they have been here long enough to realize that they will end up in loss if they sell at bear market, so just being patient while holding for the next bull run.

What are the sources to make such a conclusion that coins are not mved this much?

[tbct_mt2]

Or did people start to realize the significance of HODL and act accordingly?

It's big challenge for everyone especially newbies and new investors.

It makes sense to hold their coins, right? Because they have been here long enough to realize that they will end up in loss if they sell at bear market, so just being patient while holding for the next bull run.

It makes sense absolutely but not all people can do that, and even they are actually holding their coins, they do that differently with each other.

Holding times of different investors will be different, and it depends on their financial status, investment plan, as well as whether they are able to hold their coins a long time. Even they want to hold their coins for 2 or 3 market cycles, if their finance is not good enough, their risk management is unwell like they don't have saving fund, emergency fund, they will suddenly have to sell their coins.

There are more people who understand about holding magic power for profit in long term but there are always newbies in the market. In addition, with time and cycles, ROIs annually and cyclically will become smaller. It can make holding less attractive with some people, then possibly they will turn from holding to trading or newbies will feel no reasons to hold.

[Nathrixxx]

Maybe many of this old time bitcoin holders don't even have an idea of what bitcoin might turn to be by now, but rather took those drastic steps and decisions of holding bitcoin to this day, with the expectation of something good might come up, and now that all this has been realized, I don't think some of them that have been holding ever since then can still afford to sell by now, when did no that the longer the better for them to continue holding.

[Publictalk792]

83% is impressive and both of your interpretations are correct, problem is that they are nearly impossible to tell apart onchain. Data is the same for genuine belief and trapped money. It is the ETF point that is the one that changes analysis though. Before ETF, when demand came back, price was almost always pushed up by the fact that there were not many coins available on exchanges. Now BlackRock can get coins via approved participants without having to go through the typical retail exchange dynamics. Thus, old "illiquid supply = imminent pump" logic no longer applies. Sideways grind with record holder belief is strange mix. However, historically strange pairings always eventually come to an end in one way or another.