[FUN]Experiment using Chi Square on Roulette

[Cointxz]

Disclaimer: Chi Square will not help you to predict what’s the next outcome of the roulette. It simply determines if the wheel has some bias result due to machine error and other factor.

I’m watching big bang theory replays when I stumble on this episode. I’m still not playing roulette back then when I watch this episode so I don’t have curiosity to do research on what’s this chi square all about.



I created an excel files that attached on the resources which already contained the interpretation and you just need to input the observed data. Observe data is the count which specific number appear on the game like number “0” appear 4 times on the whole period.

You can start with 200 total spin then increase your total spin count once the data is showing biased; which is when p<0.05. Btw I use Significance level (α) = 0.05 (5%).

I will try to do this on evolution gaming roulette once my eye condition permits me to have long screen time. But you can use it on any roulette game that you like and do little fun experiment.


The goal here is to find the number that contributes the most on chi square then bet on it. The more data you will get the more accurate the result. Remember that this is not a cheat tool and most roulette nowadays was well maintained so this is just a fun experiment.



Resources:
You can learn the overview on Chi Square here https://www.scribbr.com/statistics/chi-square-test-of-independence/

I prepared an sheet files for chi square dedicated for roulette here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-kUxPs30iQ5iLlc86WggKBjK7S7v-tnVMo32G-81NxQ/edit?usp=drivesdk

[Oshosondy]

Disclaimer: Chi Square will not help you to predict what’s the next outcome of the roulette. It simply determines if the wheel has some bias result due to machine error and other factor.

If you are play roulette or any other games on crypto gambling sites, you can check for manipulation from the game seed. Although if it is on traditional gambling places, no way to know any manipulation, maybe this might help. I am only gambling on crypto gambling sites, but tourism can make it different.

[Cointxz]

Disclaimer: Chi Square will not help you to predict what’s the next outcome of the roulette. It simply determines if the wheel has some bias result due to machine error and other factor.

If you are play roulette or any other games on crypto gambling sites, you can check for manipulation from the game seed. Although if it is on traditional gambling places, no way to know any manipulation, maybe this might help. I am only gambling on crypto gambling sites, but tourism can make it different.

You’re correct on this one. You can check the roulette results whether the generated numbers are consistent with the expected probabilities if ever you don’t know how to verify code just like me.

This method is good to apply on roulette games that has hidden source code and just display RTP.

Also, The main reason I decided to study this method is after reading a provably fair discussion thread. This is fun to DIY especially to remove doubt on games we are playing in the casino.

[Alex077]

Yeah, maybe it’s important to separate two completely different things here. A chi-square test definitely can’t tell you what number is going to come up next. At best, if you have a large enough sample of results, it can help you check whether the actual distribution is noticeably different from what you would expect from a fair and random roulette wheel.
Crypto casinos are a little different.  Once the server seed is revealed, you can verify that the casino didn’t change the result afterward.

Licensed land-based casinos have equipment controls and regulatory oversight, and in theory, a large enough sample of results can also be analyzed statistically to look for any physical bias in the wheel.

That’s probably the biggest difference for me. With provably fair games, you don’t just have to take the casino’s word for it - you can actually verify the result. In a traditional casino, there’s much more trust involved.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

I would be surprised if there were any casino today – whether land-based or online – that had any flaw in its randomness. Following the Pelayos case, casinos around the world took steps to ensure that their roulette wheels were perfectly random, and that no player could take advantage of this.

As for online casinos – particularly if they are provably fair – I agree with Alex077.

Crypto casinos are a little different.  Once the server seed is revealed, you can verify that the casino didn’t change the result afterward.

<...>

That’s probably the biggest difference for me. With provably fair games, you don’t just have to take the casino’s word for it - you can actually verify the result. In a traditional casino, there’s much more trust involved.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

Also, The main reason I decided to study this method is after reading a provably fair discussion thread. This is fun to DIY especially to remove doubt on games we are playing in the casino.

My only question here is the sample data, as it could at least have 1000 spins before you can find the variance. And it might take days and a lot of money in the beginning, so I don't think that there is some fun using this method.

And as far as Evolution with their roulette games, I have played their lighting and xxxtreme lightning. And the pay is not x36 but x30 only because of the lighting numbers that also seldom give out x50 and higher multiplier.

[Nathrixxx]

Disclaimer: Chi Square will not help you to predict what’s the next outcome of the roulette. It simply determines if the wheel has some bias result due to machine error and other factor.

Better that you take your time to make it emphatic about the chi-square technique on roulette, before some will begin to think or imagine that it is another advantage for them to play roulette and win using such as a winning strategy, instead it may cause have a clue on the due process that has been taken in order to know the entire process in the wheel is fair, I know that many gamblers will always be on a lookout for a loophole they will take advantage of in gambling to ensure winning and this does not apply in this situation.

[Cointxz]

Yeah, maybe it’s important to separate two completely different things here. A chi-square test definitely can’t tell you what number is going to come up next. At best, if you have a large enough sample of results, it can help you check whether the actual distribution is noticeably different from what you would expect from a fair and random roulette wheel.

You’re right, that’s the reason why I put the disclaimer on the very beginning on the thread and bold it since I knew there’s a always a user that will be gullible to assume based on his own understanding.

There’s still a lot of roulette that use RNG that doesn’t display source code which this method can be applied for verification. I agree completely on roulette that use PF system.

Also, The main reason I decided to study this method is after reading a provably fair discussion thread. This is fun to DIY especially to remove doubt on games we are playing in the casino.

My only question here is the sample data, as it could at least have 1000 spins before you can find the variance. And it might take days and a lot of money in the beginning, so I don't think that there is some fun using this method.

And as far as Evolution with their roulette games, I have played their lighting and xxxtreme lightning. And the pay is not x36 but x30 only because of the lighting numbers that also seldom give out x50 and higher multiplier.

You will only go for larger sample if you manage to find a roulette that has a result of p < 0.05. Isn’t it fun to test slowly any possible loophole on the casino that might reward you later on either by reporting or betting on it?

That’s the essence why the test started on small sample then gradually increased it if you find a good result. You will never go 1000 sample if the lower sample already failed.

[r_victory]

Any method of verifying integrity is welcome, and for someone who is already in the habit of placing a large number of bets, it’s something I think is worth trying. Even though it’s one of my favorite games, I usually don’t go beyond 50 spins at the roulette wheel, and that’s when I’m really excited. For me, it wouldn’t be worth it...

[Questat]

If you are play roulette or any other games on crypto gambling sites, you can check for manipulation from the game seed. Although if it is on traditional gambling places, no way to know any manipulation, maybe this might help. I am only gambling on crypto gambling sites, but tourism can make it different.

Even without any manipulation, can we really beat roulette in the long run? The answer is no.

So I dont know why we still keep talking about manipulation. Let gamblers believe they can win, they will try every strategy they think might work but in reality most of them dont. There is a reason why people are always advised to play only for fun. Its not because you cannot win sometimes, but because that mindset can help you avoid bigger losses.

I usually don’t go beyond 50 spins at the roulette wheel, and that’s when I’m really excited. For me, it wouldn’t be worth it...

me, it's always based on how much money is left, ( not the spins left).

[Ruttoshi]

Even without any manipulation, can we really beat roulette in the long run? The answer is no.

So I dont know why we still keep talking about manipulation. Let gamblers believe they can win, they will try every strategy they think might work but in reality most of them dont. There is a reason why people are always advised to play only for fun. Its not because you cannot win sometimes, but because that mindset can help you avoid bigger losses.

That's how gambling works. The longer you play, the higher your chances of running at loss. It's not only in roulette that this applies to even in slot that's a luck based game. When a gambler has the plan to win big from the casino and have tried several times without success, they'll put the blame on the casino for manipulation.

This is why it's good to have a gambling budget and stop the game at the right time to avoid coming up with unnecessary excuses for your losses.

[adultcrypto]

Thank you @Cointxz for the effort, this may become a basis of verifying casino games in general. I know this data is more useful for land-based casinos but is there anyway it could be useful for online casinos or we rely on the source code to verify the games? Secondly, I don't know what to make of the spreadsheet you shared as you did not add much details that will help someone like a novice understand how to use it.

[free-bit.co.in]

A p<0.05 in the Chi-square test simply means that the observed data do not fit the uniform distribution well. This does not by itself prove that the wheel has a permanent bias that can be exploited to profit in the future. Random fluctuation, multiple testing, dealer/ball change, wheel maintenance, even camera angle can temporarily give such results. So once you get a significant result, if you bet big on a certain number, you will be in trouble. In reality, if you want to confirm the bias to exploit, you need to use thousands of spins and the same operating conditions, and modern casinos also regularly monitor the wheel.

In my opinion, if you use this spreadsheet, it's best if you can validate the same data with a new spin later.
If the bias persists even in the new dataset, you can only care about it.
Otherwise, you can easily mistake noise for signal and make wrong decisions.

Still thank you for sharing such a statistical approach for learning purposes

[YOSHIE]

Experiment using Chi Square on Roulette

I am also curious about the experiment about Chi-Square, it is used in Roulette gambling, as far as I know Chi-Square is often used for non-parametric statistics, the aim is to be able to differentiate between two variables, such as nominal or ordinal, Countries with advanced technology are often used for experiments or research in the fields of education and health where Chi-Square can produce frequency data to differentiate between real and expected frequencies, such as general practice data, gender in the health sector and so on.

To be honest, this is the first time I have seen an experiment/research using the chi-square test, it is no problem to use Chi-Square in the Roulette game, but what if the opposite is true when the Chi-Square result is the opposite of what is expected, the wheel stops at the black point, actually stops at the red or green dot, whether the Roulette spin can be considered independent or not and what about the Roulette ball spin that stops at a certain number.

I think the Chi-Square experiment/research, the Chi-Square test in the Roulette game, did not work as expected, if the Chi-Square experiment/research was successful, I'm sure we will never see the Roulette game in online casinos again, the proof is that the Roulette game is a popular game and is loved by many gamblers.