Will the bitcoin volatilities keep falling in the future?

[|MINER|]

If I am not wrong, most of us have this kind of discussion about what the next season or future price of Bitcoin will be.

However, the question arises in my mind that do we ever discuss the changing nature of the volatility of Bitcoin?

I think it's important not to get too carried away with this, because if we look at the early volatilities of Bitcoin and look at the current volatilities, there's definitely a big difference. For example, if you look at the picture below, you can see that the percentage of Bitcoin's bear bottom price dumping has been decreasing consistently in each bear season.

And the same thing is happening in the bull season when it comes to creating all-time high prices.

Does that mean that at some point in the future, bitcoin's volatilities could decrease?

I'm not saying it will become completely stable, but is there a possibility of gold-like types of volatilities?

[Upgrade00]

This has been discussed many times across different threads. As people are more fully aware of the features and strengths of bitcoin there are less purchases as experiments or out of curiosity as was popular early on, now buyers know they need to wait the long term to get profits,  adoption has grown and more institutional investors have come in. This has resulted in less volatility and should continue to do so. Even in reaction to a market news which would have crashed the market of the boast, it has little effect now.

A chart similar to that of gold is possible in the future, but I'm of the opinion that we should be moving away from the comparisons to gold, bitcoin is not looking to replace it or be the digital version.

[Jammy01]

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2026/08/05/Uoc96q.png

I'm not saying it will become completely stable, but is there a possibility of gold-like types of volatilities?

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2026/08/05/Uoc8nD.png

It is possible that bitcoin will become less volatile as long as more people and big investors start using it but I don't really think we can say it is going to happen forever
Bitcoin is still smaller than assets like gold so big buyers or sellers can move the price very well maybe the swing will become smaller over time but I don't think bitcoin will stop being volatile anytime soon

[Oshosondy]

This has been discussed many times across different threads.

Even someone posted the image that he posted also to have similar discussion recently. What was discussed on the other thread will be very similar to what will be discussed on this thread.

A chart similar to that of gold is possible in the future, but I'm of the opinion that we should be moving away from the comparisons to gold, bitcoin is not looking to replace it or be the digital version.

I did not see it as comparison, people see gold not really volatile and they like it as it also maintains its store of value. Bitcoin is going to be less volatile like that in the future. We are seeing that already. Who knows in the next next bear market if bitcoin will not fall up to 50%.

[Danish Ali]

The trend is real, the drops of each cycle have been less and less. 2011 saw 93% drops, 2018 hit 84%, 2022 stopped around 77%. It is clear which way to go.
This is life cycle of growing asset classes. In the early decades of free trading, after 1971, gold was much more unstable than it is today.
What Bitcoin is missing is true big company market making on both sides. ETF money coming in brought buy side cash availability, but short side cash availability is not yet in place. It is not until then that gold like swings in price are a reality, not a possibility.

[Alpha Marine]

Does that mean that at some point in the future, bitcoin's volatilities could decrease?

You can obviously see that it has decreased from how it was in the past. You stated it yourself, so isn't it normal for the volatility to keep reducing in future?
There is a reason why the volatility is reducing, so to determine if it will keep reducing in future, you have to look at the cause. The more the market cap of an asset, the less volatile it becomes. This doesn't mean people don't buy or sell that asset at a quick rate to cause volatility; it simply means that the market cap is so big that it doesn't get affected that much.
Take gold, for example; It won't do a 30% decrease, but if it does a 5% decrease, that means it has lost more than Bitcoin's current market cap.  It's not easy for investors to sell up to 2 trillion in a short time, but it's not that difficult to sell a billion or ten billion. So if the market cap is not very big, it would be more volatile.
The same way altcoins and memecoins are more volatile than Bitcoin. The more Bitcoin's market cap increases, the less volatile it will become, but it will still be volatile.

[Joy_learns_crypto]

A chart similar to that of gold is possible in the future, but I'm of the opinion that we should be moving away from the comparisons to gold, bitcoin is not looking to replace it or be the digital version.

I don’t know why people wants not just to compare Bitcoin with gold but want to see the difference gap bridged and bitcoin becomes so alike to Gold.
Personally bitcoin volatility is something I value, I don’t think I want to see bitcoin becomes so stable that we don’t see any movement in the market.
Will the volatility keep falling? I don’t predict so because there have been less factors to prompt a crash or surge lately Thats why it seems the volatility is decreasing.

[SilverCryptoBullet]

If I am not wrong, most of us have this kind of discussion about what the next season or future price of Bitcoin will be.

However, the question arises in my mind that do we ever discuss the changing nature of the volatility of Bitcoin?

People still consider gold market is volatile and it only has less volatility than Bitcoin market. Stock market is still volatile in a big nation with huge economy like the USA, to other nations like China, Japan, Germany and the others.

Does that mean that at some point in the future, bitcoin's volatilities could decrease?

I'm not saying it will become completely stable, but is there a possibility of gold-like types of volatilities?

Let's see the rank for all assets by market caps.
https://companiesmarketcap.com/assets-by-market-cap/

Bitcoin now is at the 14th position with 1.28T market cap and it has already become bigger than years ago, cycles ago. With very fundamental impacts of market cap, when it becomes bigger, it will become less volatile, harder to manipulate while an asset with bigger market cap and has maintained it a long time will be more secure and safer than other assets with smaller market caps or big market caps recently.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

Volatility is not a threat to bitcoin network and that is where we will always appreciate this as a way of making everyone to find a suitable entry or selling points, remember we will always have an increasing rate of adoption with bitcoin and this alone will also continue to make it more relevant when it comes to adoption rate and it volatility will still remain as usual because of the continues influx of Bitcoin users.

[Sim_card]

It's easy to reach 100 from zero and it will take more time to reach 1000 when starting from 100. Likewise, it will take more time to reach 10000 when you start from 1000, it takes a very long time to reach 100k when you start counting from 10k and so on. I feel this is why the volatile nature of bitcoin decreases overtime as more investors are buying because price range from the bear to the bull run ATH is very far from each other and the price figures are also large.

The volatility drops overtime and gives lesser profit than in the early days. The price is tens of thousands currently, it will take more time for it to double the previous ATH price.

[Millie886]

Not sure, I follow Megalodon Tips for the latest

[Jostern]

This has been discussed many times across different threads. As people are more fully aware of the features and strengths of bitcoin there are less purchases as experiments or out of curiosity as was popular early on, now buyers know they need to wait the long term to get profits,  adoption has grown and more institutional investors have come in. This has resulted in less volatility and should continue to do so. Even in reaction to a market news which would have crashed the market of the boast, it has little effect now.

A chart similar to that of gold is possible in the future, but I'm of the opinion that we should be moving away from the comparisons to gold, bitcoin is not looking to replace it or be the digital version.

You’re absolutely correct, Personally I wouldn’t bother about the volatility nature of bitcoin, considering how strong bitcoin is right now, we can never know exactly know what is going to happen with the volatility of bitcoin in the next few years or maybe next year, each and everyday that passes more people are going into bitcoin investment, when we have companies that are now holding bitcoins, that tells that bitcoin is a valuable asset, anyone who is investing in bitcoin with the mindset of a long term investment shouldn’t have anything to worry about volatility, when there is a high demand of bitcoin then we are going to have volatility slow down gradually.

There are people who are interested in assets that are not very volatile in nature most especially gold, people see gold as something that is safe for them to invest, but when you know the value of bitcoin it would be better and preferable to hold bitcoin instead of gold, I can’t compare bitcoin to gold.

[qurbanshah02]

This has been discussed many times across different threads. As people are more fully aware of the features and strengths of bitcoin there are less purchases as experiments or out of curiosity as was popular early on, now buyers know they need to wait the long term to get profits,  adoption has grown and more institutional investors have come in. This has resulted in less volatility and should continue to do so. Even in reaction to a market news which would have crashed the market of the boast, it has little effect now.

A chart similar to that of gold is possible in the future, but I'm of the opinion that we should be moving away from the comparisons to gold, bitcoin is not looking to replace it or be the digital version.

There are people who are interested in assets that are not very volatile in nature most especially gold, people see gold as something that is safe for them to invest, but when you know the value of bitcoin it would be better and preferable to hold bitcoin instead of gold, I can’t compare bitcoin to gold.

Until we see gold in real terms, we will not understand Bitcoin because people believe it when they see it, but new people believe that digital earnings are more than physical earnings. Because if gold is mixed, then it has no value, then gold will also be bought digitally, so what is the difference between gold and Bitcoin? Therefore, those who do not believe in Bitcoin and think that they will lose their capital in it are actually losing their capital and profits. Whatever the asset is, whether it is real or digital, we have experienced its profits, so we should understand Bitcoin. Gold cannot compete with Bitcoin because the price of Bitcoin and its growth has gone beyond gold and the day Bitcoin goes to its new ATH, everyone will sell gold. We are not saying that gold is not profitable, although it is less than Bitcoin, so whatever gives more profit at the time should be held.

[sergiorus]

I used to think that as an asset's market capitalisation gets larger, it gets less volatile and maybe in the market of the past (let's say pre-2020) it was the truth, but now we see increased volatility among all liquid asset classes and all capitalisation.

When SpaceX, Gold and other trillion-dollar assets are traded like shitcoins, it doesn't really have much sense to expect a historically volatile and speculative asset to become significantly less volatile even with the valuations growth.

[legiteum]

There is absolutely nothing stopping BTC's market cap from going to $10 trillion or +10,000%.

There is absolutely nothing stopping BTC's market cap from going to $10 billion or -99%.

Bitcoin has no fundamentals. It is a meme investment. Its value is based entirely on the balance of investors entering and leaving its market. Bitcoin's practical value is its ability to perform transactions, but that number--about 500k per day--is basically meaningless in the worldwide load of transactions (and there are other products that are far more popular in the marketplace than Bitcoin for the exact same utility). Most BTC investors don't even know how many transactions Bitcoin performs on a given day, and they don't care because... they are investing a meme and not a practical, useful product of some kind. And owning BTC, unlike, say, owning stock in a company, does not give one controlling ownership of any actual enterprise or any physical commodity (it's akin to a position on a prediction market or investing in derivatives).

There is nothing wrong with any of this and I am not here to trash BTC investing. Trillions of dollars of investment money go into meme investments. Many things partially act like meme investments like gold for instance, or certain "hot" stocks.

Just because the investment is a meme does not limit its upside.

But it doesn't limit the downside either.

Volatility is a permanent feature of meme investments like Bitcoin. Indeed, that's the whole point...

[pooya87]

Technically it should because part of these massive ups and downs (the huge volatility) has been because of the small size of the market. To understand it, compare bitcoin's market right now with that of a small altcoin and see how that small altcoin (usually with price around 1-10 satoshi) can be easily pumped and dumped.
So as the market grows in size, these swings should shrink in size as well.

However, I have to point out that the chart posted in OP is a little bit misleading because it is not considering the most important factor that has been preventing that huge rise and the resulting bubble, and have been still causing huge crashes (-30% to -70%).
And that is the worsening situation with the global economy.

Look at the charts again and see when that trend of "big bubbles followed by bubble bursts" ended. You'll notice they ended in 2020. What happened then? That's right, the COVID19 pandemic, lockdown and the economic crisis and recession. Before that ended, the global economy faced another crisis with NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine...

That means we can only give the final verdict about decreased volatility if the global economy goes to normal and after that if we don't see a massive bitcoin rise (ie. to something like $1 million) then we can say that volatility has decreased for sure.

[Hatchy]

A chart similar to that of gold is possible in the future, but I'm of the opinion that we should be moving away from the comparisons to gold, bitcoin is not looking to replace it or be the digital version.

Of course, I don't think it's fair to compare Bitcoin's volatility directly with gold's. They are different assets, and they react differently to economic and geopolitical events. Over the years, there have been periods where gold has been more volatile than Bitcoin during times of global uncertainty. Bitcoin has historically been the more volatile asset overall. The good thing is that its volatility has gradually decreased as adoption has grown among individual investors, institutions, and even governments.No one knows exactly what will happen in the future. As all 21 million bitcoins are eventually mined and Bitcoin becomes even scarcer, we could see its volatility decrease further as more people choose to hold their coins for the long term. Or new factors could emerge that increase volatility again, only time will tell.

[Popkon6]

Bitcoin is capable of going further in the future, because it has been reliably surviving in the market for a long time and has not had any scandals in any situation. Therefore, the price of Bitcoin will improve even more in the future, so it is most important for us to participate in Bitcoin investment to be financially successful in the future.
Therefore, the possibility that Bitcoin can be unstable in this situation is very low, because so many and extensive investors are holding on to Bitcoin and are planning to hold on to it for a longer period of time. Therefore, in this situation, it is very likely that the price of Bitcoin will be completely down in the future, but rather that it is able to perform better in the future than it is now.

[Zoomic]

Over time, volatility will become smaller, which will make people see less risk of losses but I don't think it'll completely disappear.

Gold as an asset for instance, has been in existence so centuries but there are still periods of volatility.

Bitcoin will not be totally different when it comes to volatility. As adoption continues to grow, we'll have a deeper market with enough liquidity to absorb large buys or sells but there'll still be moments where the market will experience price swings due to market sentiment, regulatory actions or macroeconomic events.

[CryptoHeadlineNews]

Does that mean that at some point in the future, bitcoin's volatilities could decrease?

I'm not saying it will become completely stable, but is there a possibility of gold-like types of volatilities?

When it comes to the volatility of Bitcoin becoming stable in the future, I'm 100% sure that such is never going to be possible, but when it comes to its volatility being flexible in the future, and not falling massively in its price value, then such is very possible, because looking at th chart above about the previous Bitcoin maximum Bear market bottom after each All Time High. It's visibly possible that Bitcoin tend to be more stronger after it's previous All Time High. And just as it's previous Bear market bottom was 78%, and right now we have just experienced just 53%, I won't be surprised if we see it fall more to around 54%. Because to me, I think that's the least it could fall this period. But moreover, Bitcoin seems to have got a strong resistance at $60k.