Will the bitcoin volatilities keep falling in the future?

[OgNasty]

A maturing market is supposed to result in reduced volatility but here in Bitcoinland we have Michael Saylor who is using his Strategy company to buy the tops and sell the bottoms, further stoking the longer term volatility of Bitcoin.  At some point Saylor will figure things out hopefully and be a positive addition to Bitcoin, but right now he is very much doing the opposite of everything he set out to do, resulting in negative consequences for the market.

[henmark]

I think it's important not to get too carried away with this, because if we look at the early volatilities of Bitcoin and look at the current volatilities, there's definitely a big difference. For example, if you look at the picture below, you can see that the percentage of Bitcoin's bear bottom price dumping has been decreasing consistently in each bear season.

And the same thing is happening in the bull season when it comes to creating all-time high prices.

Does that mean that at some point in the future, bitcoin's volatilities could decrease?

I'm not saying it will become completely stable, but is there a possibility of gold-like types of volatilities?

In theory, it should. Because right now it requires a lot more money to be sold before it goes down, and it requires a lot more money to be bought before it goes up. That means the amount required ot make it be volatile is a lot more. Right now it is less volatile than before, and in the future it will be less volatile than right now. It is still more volatile than most markets, so we are not "there" yet.

Volatility will stabilise a bit more; we need some more time for that to become something that will be more stable. But at the end of the day, the path is that path, and we are going there soon enough. I think 2029 will be another bull run, and we are not going to see 300k+, for example; we may see 200k if it goes well, but that's about it. Back in the day, if I told someone the bull run would be less than x10, they would think I was mad; today we do not even expect it.

[CageMabok]

Bitcoin volatility is one of the best instrumentation that will always determine how profitable we can be in Bitcoin investment, it provides us with every opportunity on when to buy or sell, we also have the ability of tracking to know more about the market season and other necessary factors to be considered before investing to maximize our profit after we have invested, therefore we should not see volatility as an obstacle but what determines how profitable we could be as the market falls and rises.

Understanding volatility is crucial, as it is an inherent, daily reality of the Bitcoin market. Yet, some people remain hesitant to buy Bitcoin when prices drop; in fact, those who lack the courage to buy during a dip are often the quickest to sell off their existing holdings when prices fall. This is counterintuitive, as a price drop is precisely the moment to buy or to hold onto assets previously acquired rather than sell. Selling during a downturn is rarely the best course of action for anyone, especially for investors who have held Bitcoin for some time. Currently, Bitcoin's price has not yet surged significantly and remains stagnant around the $64,000 level, offering an opportunity for anyone wishing to buy and capitalize on future market volatility.

[free-bit.co.in]

A maturing market is supposed to result in reduced volatility but here in Bitcoinland we have Michael Saylor who is using his Strategy company to buy the tops and sell the bottoms, further stoking the longer term volatility of Bitcoin.  At some point Saylor will figure things out hopefully and be a positive addition to Bitcoin, but right now he is very much doing the opposite of everything he set out to do, resulting in negative consequences for the market.

Saylor was once a positive factor for the market because he not only invested in it but also started the trend of companies adding Bitcoin to their balance sheet. It should be acknowledged that he played a major role in helping more institution pay attention to Bitcoin and creating wave of viewing Bitcoin as a treasury asset.

However, his mistake was that instead of keeping Bitcoin as a company investment, he made the company rely too heavily on Bitcoin and turned it into more of a gamble than an investment. That turned him from a positive force into a potential risk for the market.

[Gozie51]

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I'm not saying it will become completely stable, but is there a possibility of gold-like types of volatilities?

~snip~

Gold is also a decentralized asset and no single government can control it.

Finally, I also disagree with the assertion that Bitcoin's volatility is entirely determined by supply and demand. Like any other asset, Bitcoin is affected by many factor, including monetary policy, capital flow, leverage in the market and investor sentiment. Supply and demand are fundamental factor, but they're not the only ones.

I surely know that limited supply of bitcoin should not be a singular reason for volatility determination. Capital flow, whales attitude, market sentiment etc can also be an influential factor but limited supply is more guaranteed for lack of government manipulation. Government can manipulate the amount of their gold that comes into he global market through their mining and reserve which can direct volatility to their whims and caprices unlike bitcoin. Though government don't have direct control of the price of gold but they can influence or manipulate it through their reserve and their regulalatory mining policy. And so, why I said bitcoin is not a natural resources unlike gold, its mining doesn't depend on government heavy regulation, monitoring policy approval and control like natural resources like gold whose control is government.

[Pandu Geddon]

Understanding volatility is crucial, as it is an inherent, daily reality of the Bitcoin market. Yet, some people remain hesitant to buy Bitcoin when prices drop; in fact, those who lack the courage to buy during a dip are often the quickest to sell off their existing holdings when prices fall. This is counterintuitive, as a price drop is precisely the moment to buy or to hold onto assets previously acquired rather than sell. Selling during a downturn is rarely the best course of action for anyone, especially for investors who have held Bitcoin for some time. Currently, Bitcoin's price has not yet surged significantly and remains stagnant around the $64,000 level, offering an opportunity for anyone wishing to buy and capitalize on future market volatility.

In the end, people will become more aware and understand how to make profits from investing in Bitcoin. I think the large adoption by institutions has quite a bit of dampened the volatility that happened with Bitcoin before. And in the future, I believe people won’t have such short-term thinking anymore. They will understand the concept of long-term investing in Bitcoin. They buy it truly for investment, not just out of FOMO.

[GreatArkansas]

Understanding volatility is crucial, as it is an inherent, daily reality of the Bitcoin market. Yet, some people remain hesitant to buy Bitcoin when prices drop; in fact, those who lack the courage to buy during a dip are often the quickest to sell off their existing holdings when prices fall. This is counterintuitive, as a price drop is precisely the moment to buy or to hold onto assets previously acquired rather than sell. Selling during a downturn is rarely the best course of action for anyone, especially for investors who have held Bitcoin for some time. Currently, Bitcoin's price has not yet surged significantly and remains stagnant around the $64,000 level, offering an opportunity for anyone wishing to buy and capitalize on future market volatility.

In the end, people will become more aware and understand how to make profits from investing in Bitcoin. I think the large adoption by institutions has quite a bit of dampened the volatility that happened with Bitcoin before. And in the future, I believe people won’t have such short-term thinking anymore. They will understand the concept of long-term investing in Bitcoin. They buy it truly for investment, not just out of FOMO.

I agree, more people may start treating Bitcoin as a long-term investment instead of chasing quick buck or "easy money". But still, we must blame other actors here, even big institutions; they may have had big contributions or negative effect for entire market, but we can't deny them or we can't control them.
For me, these kind of market, which is volatile will become normal as we go on. We have already proven this multiple times from the past.

[Agbamoni]

There have been lots of discussions concerning volatility over the years. This is not the first, nor will it be the last. Volatility has kept decreasing over the years because the new people buying Bitcoin want to be more holders than traders.

In addition, ETFs and institutions are buying lots of Bitcoins without a plan to sell. Rather, they want to acquire more of it. The current market condition is a result of ETF inflows and institutions accumulating Bitcoin.

[yhiaali3]

Yes, why not? It has become clear that Bitcoin's volatility is constantly decreasing with each cycle, and I wouldn't rule out that it will decrease at some point in the future and become close to gold, especially given the great similarity between Bitcoin and gold.

This is what is known in financial analysis as the maturation of digital assets, and it is the result of several reasons, the most important of which are the adoption of spot ETFs and the growth of market capitalization over time, as well as regulatory and legislative clarity, especially with Trump’s open policy on crypto.

[coinrifft]

A maturing market is supposed to result in reduced volatility but here in Bitcoinland we have Michael Saylor who is using his Strategy company to buy the tops and sell the bottoms, further stoking the longer term volatility of Bitcoin.  At some point Saylor will figure things out hopefully and be a positive addition to Bitcoin, but right now he is very much doing the opposite of everything he set out to do, resulting in negative consequences for the market.

Saylor was once a positive factor for the market because he not only invested in it but also started the trend of companies adding Bitcoin to their balance sheet. It should be acknowledged that he played a major role in helping more institution pay attention to Bitcoin and creating wave of viewing Bitcoin as a treasury asset.

Just like Elon Musk before him. And we can acknowledge what he has done for the market. He become what we call the poster boy for Bitcoin for many years. in return, I think his company also become well known because of his investment of Bitcoin.

However, his mistake was that instead of keeping Bitcoin as a company investment, he made the company rely too heavily on Bitcoin and turned it into more of a gamble than an investment. That turned him from a positive force into a potential risk for the market.

I wouldn't say that it's a risk, we all know that there will always be risk when we invest on Bitcoin. But the thing that he wants to portray is not like selling it. But recently, he did sell so that breaks his promise and somewhat Bitcoin investors are disappointed with him.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

There may be an outlier like we saw in Gold and Silver recently with an explosive run after years of disappointment but it’s clear Bitcoin is seeing diminishing returns.

I wish it wasn’t the case but each top (4 year cycle) has been less explosive than the previous one. On the other hand the downside has been less harsh in bear markets too. It’s natural as Bitcoin matures I guess. Hopefully we get another parabolic run to new highs soon though, $500,000 feels nice

[Y3shot]

One thing we need to have at the back of our minds about the volatility of Bitcoin is that it can't be predicted. We shouldn't be too serious in comparing the volatility of Bitcoin in the early days and now. It is possible that they won't be the same; this is because Bitcoin is unpredictable. When we say Bitcoin is unpredictable, it is not just about the movement; it also includes how fast or slow the movement of the price of Bitcoin is. I see how many investors feel so panicked about the price of Bitcoin, and if one is too concerned about it, it can lead to making bad decisions. The best thing is to focus more on accumulating Bitcoin. Bitcoin is unpredictable, and it will always give investors a reason to be surprised.

[STT]

I think the wider world is largely growing in volatility.  So Bitcoin itself might be more mature but the ocean its sailing into is going into a stormy period to say the least, just staying afloat will be a great victory but I doubt BTC is sailing through it all serene like a swan somehow.
  
  Even if we ignore the Dollar situation, the multiple developed economies with excessive debt burdens and how that all unwinds, there is also the technology development situation.   People see this amount of tech change as the next industrial revolution so things will alter alot.
  Quantum is seen as a probable hurdle for Bitcoin to get past, some think it wont so that debate ahead is volatility and quite certainly large changes are occurring.

[drangos]

One thing we need to have at the back of our minds about the volatility of Bitcoin is that it can't be predicted. We shouldn't be too serious in comparing the volatility of Bitcoin in the early days and now. It is possible that they won't be the same; this is because Bitcoin is unpredictable. When we say Bitcoin is unpredictable, it is not just about the movement; it also includes how fast or slow the movement of the price of Bitcoin is. I see how many investors feel so panicked about the price of Bitcoin, and if one is too concerned about it, it can lead to making bad decisions. The best thing is to focus more on accumulating Bitcoin. Bitcoin is unpredictable, and it will always give investors a reason to be surprised.

To be predictable is not to be volatile, and I think there is a distinction between being unpredictable and becoming less volatile over time, with Bitcoin. With growing market size and increased liquidity, the Bitcoin price may noticeably see a reduction in violent price fluctuations over time. But big news, market sentiment, leverage, and macro economic conditions can still lead to volatility in the marketplace. So investors shouldn't expect the volatility to continue to be lower, but should be ready for both lower and higher volatility periods. It's easier to build up slowly and make decisions with logic rather than emotion rather than trying to anticipate all of the short-term decisions.

[dansus021]

it is vice versa bitcoin volatiles keep falling but the ATH also keep falling to in percentage. Maybe in the future bitcoin asset would be more stable if the supply already scare and long term holder keep hold their bitcoin. Maybe it would be more like gold, tho bitcoin would remain as volatile asset.

But if this true until we seen next bull market I would be very happy and maybe now is the best time to accumulate more and more bitcoin.

[Marvelockg]

One thing we need to have at the back of our minds about the volatility of Bitcoin is that it can't be predicted. We shouldn't be too serious in comparing the volatility of Bitcoin in the early days and now.

It can not be predicted by overtime, it is becoming increasingly slower than it has been in the past and that to an extent is as a result of a set of balance we tend to be experiencing relative to buys and sells and the fact that investors are no longer buying due to fear of missing out on anything but have gotten to the point of making their buy and sell decision after proper analysis has been done. we can even agree that the vast majority of people that are involved in bitcoin are intentional investors that are not zooming on an off at will. more stabillity in bitcoin suggests that investors are equally stable in what they take bitcoin as.

[free-bit.co.in]

However, his mistake was that instead of keeping Bitcoin as a company investment, he made the company rely too heavily on Bitcoin and turned it into more of a gamble than an investment. That turned him from a positive force into a potential risk for the market.

I wouldn't say that it's a risk, we all know that there will always be risk when we invest on Bitcoin. But the thing that he wants to portray is not like selling it. But recently, he did sell so that breaks his promise and somewhat Bitcoin investors are disappointed with him.

Do you know how Saylor buy BTC? He is not simply using the company's existing cash to buy Bitcoin. Strategy has built an entire strategy around buying Bitcoin with raised capital and debt.

As you said, investing inherently involves risk. And with the way he is doing it, constantly raising capital and taking on debt to buy more BTC, he is greatly amplifying the risk. If this still isn't considered gambling, then I honestly, I don't know what else you would call it.

At this point, Strategy is almost unable to issue more bonds to raise capital and is running out of cash to pay dividends. If they don't sell BTC, I do not think they have other options to get through their current difficulties. Their bitcoin sale was predictable, but many people simply did not want to believe it would happen.

[tabas]

That has been discussed IIRC many times before and opinions telling that the lesser volatility will come to bitcoin. But they haven't directly said that but about the general term of saying that the market will become stable.

I wish it wasn’t the case but each top (4 year cycle) has been less explosive than the previous one. On the other hand the downside has been less harsh in bear markets too. It’s natural as Bitcoin matures I guess. Hopefully we get another parabolic run to new highs soon though, $500,000 feels nice

This is true, both bulls and bears have been not so intense or maybe we can put an exception on the last one because of how it had reached the $126k as its ATH. I'm adding to that energy that soon we might get to $500 and break more highs and then get closer to a mil.