Will the bitcoin volatilities keep falling in the future?

[uneng]

I wish it wasn’t the case but each top (4 year cycle) has been less explosive than the previous one. On the other hand the downside has been less harsh in bear markets too. It’s natural as Bitcoin matures I guess. Hopefully we get another parabolic run to new highs soon though, $500,000 feels nice

From the profitability point of view, it doesn't sound interesting, but at same time we have to take into consideration it means Bitcoin has become a reliable and solid asset outside the crypto bubble, reaching every kinds of investors, including the most traditional ones who have been skeptical in the past about the possibility of adopting Bitcoin on their portfolios.

The higher the risks, the higher potential profits are, and the lower the risks, lower potential profits must be.

[LastKiss]

~snip~
Does that mean that at some point in the future, bitcoin's volatilities could decrease?

Even in this cycle, I think the volatility is not as high compared to previous cycles so in the future, we’ll probably see Bitcoin becoming less volatile than it was in the past. Well, I could be wrong cause this cycle bearmarket is not done yet and we still have probablity for Bitcoin to drop further.

But what I’m afraid of is that the volatility might keep coming because on the Higher Time Frame, Bitcoin is still in a megaphone pattern. If this pattern plays out, touching the upper trendline and lower trendlines could create very high volatility.

[BALIK]

I wish it wasn’t the case but each top (4 year cycle) has been less explosive than the previous one. On the other hand the downside has been less harsh in bear markets too. It’s natural as Bitcoin matures I guess. Hopefully we get another parabolic run to new highs soon though, $500,000 feels nice

From the profitability point of view, it doesn't sound interesting, but at same time we have to take into consideration it means Bitcoin has become a reliable and solid asset outside the crypto bubble, reaching every kinds of investors, including the most traditional ones who have been skeptical in the past about the possibility of adopting Bitcoin on their portfolios.

The higher the risks, the higher potential profits are, and the lower the risks, lower potential profits must be.

Bitcoin may not deliver the massive returns it used to. But compared with other investment like gold or stock, it is still delivering significant returns and outperforming them by a wide margin.

For us, Bitcoin being less volatile than it used to be may make it a less attractive investment. But if we look at the bigger picture, Bitcoin becoming more widely accepted and reaching a broader range of investor is a good sign.

It's a bit disappointing that Bitcoin doesn't deliver the huge returns it used to. But I think it's a fair trade off if we want Bitcoin to grow and last for the long term.

[Ayers]

I'm adding to that energy that soon we might get to $500 and break more highs and then get closer to a mil.

When you say soon, how soon do you mean?
we all want to see Bitcoin surge, reaching $500k or $1 million in the near future. but honestly, given what bitcoin has shown in the past cycle. I am skeptical that it will be able to reach $500k and advance to $1 million as soon as we expect.

Bitcoin has matured and its market cap has reached trillions. So expecting bitcoin to double from its previous peak is already a challenge, let alone what it will increase by x5-x10.

I’m not saying $500k or $1m is impossible. i just think we might be expecting it to happen too soon.

[Salahmu]

Even in this cycle, I think the volatility is not as high compared to previous cycles so in the future, we’ll probably see Bitcoin becoming less volatile than it was in the past. Well, I could be wrong cause this cycle bearmarket is not done yet and we still have probablity for Bitcoin to drop further.

Volatility is the characteristics of Bitcoin so it will always remain high. I don't see much significant different now from last circle, actually volatility is not only considered by the length it goes on a specific direction of the price but however even if it swings up and down is also a volatility and that's something that would neither reduce or change in Bitcoin even from the previous till now or in future, so definitely it will forever remain the same in Bitcoin because even at the period when it was not certain that Bitcoin price will be increasing or declining but still you will always see how volatile the price will be moving within different high and low prices.

[Iranus]

Volatility is the characteristics of Bitcoin so it will always remain high. I don't see much significant different now from last circle, actually volatility is not only considered by the length it goes on a specific direction of the price but however even if it swings up and down is also a volatility and that's something that would neither reduce or change in Bitcoin even from the previous till now or in future, so definitely it will forever remain the same in Bitcoin because even at the period when it was not certain that Bitcoin price will be increasing or declining but still you will always see how volatile the price will be moving within different high and low prices.

Volatility isn't a fixed characteristic of Bitcoin. It depend on the size of the market, liquidity, and it's the same with any other asset. As it matures and its market cap gets bigger, its volatility will gradually decrease.

Years ago, when Bitcoin's market cap was only a few billion dollars, it could move by double digits in a short period of time and deliver x10-x100 returns. But as you've seen, we hardly see that anymore in recent years. In this cycle especially, Bitcoin couldn't even double its previous ATH.

Its volatility will not disappear completely, but a gradual decrease over time is inevitable.

[Shinpako09]

No one really knows. If we are going to compare it to the cycle, it really dropped. From its ATH in 2013, it went down to 86%, in 2017, 84%, in 2021, 77%, and in the 2025 ATH, 54%. It really ended up becoming less every cycle, but to say it will become comparable to gold, that is still too far and maybe unlikely. Gold is gold and crypto is crypto. Volatility is one of the characteristics of crypto, btc included, and such is the nature we have to deal with, maybe for a longer time, and for me, it's not an issue or a big deal.

[danherbias07]

Investors are wiser now. They are waiting, and I think their patience has been fruitful because I believe they have already made a lot of profits from Bitcoin.

Bitcoin volatility is something that is difficult to understand, and that is why the rule of buy low, sell high still applies. Today, many traders and retail investors are looking at the institutional investors because they are the groups who could really shake the market and maybe even try to manipulate it. Still, I highly doubt they would just sell without any good reason, so if it keeps on falling is somehow a low chance.

Some may think it's cheaper now, so instead of a fall, you may see an upward motion.

[Oasisman]

It's easy to reach 100 from zero and it will take more time to reach 1000 when starting from 100. Likewise, it will take more time to reach 10000 when you start from 1000, it takes a very long time to reach 100k when you start counting from 10k and so on.

Well, this makes sense.
But it isn't the rising value of Bitcoin literally the cause of the volatility decline, but it is the growing market size and liquidity are causing it.
In the early days, the market size isn't as massive as today's, so, one enormous purchase or selloff could create a huge volatility in the market price. Compared today, individual investors have been significantly increasing, as well as institutions , ETFs, and trading firms. These creates very high liquidity that massive trades won't make much of an impact in the market price.

[tabas]

I'm adding to that energy that soon we might get to $500k and break more highs and then get closer to a mil.

When you say soon, how soon do you mean?
we all want to see Bitcoin surge, reaching $500k or $1 million in the near future. but honestly, given what bitcoin has shown in the past cycle. I am skeptical that it will be able to reach $500k and advance to $1 million as soon as we expect.

Bitcoin has matured and its market cap has reached trillions. So expecting bitcoin to double from its previous peak is already a challenge, let alone what it will increase by x5-x10.

I’m not saying $500k or $1m is impossible. i just think we might be expecting it to happen too soon.

I guess it might be a couple of cycles more and maybe that soon enough, long enough we'll be there. It has to x4 for it to reach the $500k from the last ATH. And you're right that every cycle that comes now with its bull run, the growth is no longer exponential compared to the past. So that soon might not have that fixed exact time, near future or maybe more cycles. Only time can tell but I think that most of us are believing that we'll be there someday and when that comes, hopefully we're all still holding a hefty of it and won't be missing those great heights.

[justdimin]

It's easy to reach 100 from zero and it will take more time to reach 1000 when starting from 100. Likewise, it will take more time to reach 10000 when you start from 1000, it takes a very long time to reach 100k when you start counting from 10k and so on.

Well, this makes sense.
But it isn't the rising value of Bitcoin literally the cause of the volatility decline, but it is the growing market size and liquidity are causing it.
In the early days, the market size isn't as massive as today's, so, one enormous purchase or selloff could create a huge volatility in the market price. Compared today, individual investors have been significantly increasing, as well as institutions , ETFs, and trading firms. These creates very high liquidity that massive trades won't make much of an impact in the market price.

I would say it is the value of it, more like the price of it. Because back in the day, it would be enough to use 1 million dollars to go from 1 dollar to 2 dollars, and that would be a 100% increase. But today, if you bought one million dollars worth of bitcoin, you could maybe move it 1 dollar, maybe not even that much, probably. So that means it is the market cap, which in turn means the price. Market cap goes up because price goes up, and right now you need billions to move bitcoin, not millions.

I understand what you mean, and you are right that liquidity does matter a lot. If you have a lot of bitcoin on the market being bought and sold, that is going to make volatility less, whereas if you lack liquidity, then any movement will be times ten because it makes it move a lot due to lack of liquidity. That does play a part in this, and I do not deny it. But that is a small part of it; I think the biggest part of it is market cap size, which is due to price being so high.

[Smack That Ace]

It's easy to reach 100 from zero and it will take more time to reach 1000 when starting from 100. Likewise, it will take more time to reach 10000 when you start from 1000, it takes a very long time to reach 100k when you start counting from 10k and so on.

Well, this makes sense.
But it isn't the rising value of Bitcoin literally the cause of the volatility decline, but it is the growing market size and liquidity are causing it.
In the early days, the market size isn't as massive as today's, so, one enormous purchase or selloff could create a huge volatility in the market price. Compared today, individual investors have been significantly increasing, as well as institutions , ETFs, and trading firms. These creates very high liquidity that massive trades won't make much of an impact in the market price.

I would say it is the value of it, more like the price of it. Because back in the day, it would be enough to use 1 million dollars to go from 1 dollar to 2 dollars, and that would be a 100% increase. But today, if you bought one million dollars worth of bitcoin, you could maybe move it 1 dollar, maybe not even that much, probably. So that means it is the market cap, which in turn means the price. Market cap goes up because price goes up, and right now you need billions to move bitcoin, not millions.

I understand what you mean, and you are right that liquidity does matter a lot. If you have a lot of bitcoin on the market being bought and sold, that is going to make volatility less, whereas if you lack liquidity, then any movement will be times ten because it makes it move a lot due to lack of liquidity. That does play a part in this, and I do not deny it. But that is a small part of it; I think the biggest part of it is market cap size, which is due to price being so high.

Liquidity is really important. A large market cap doesn't automatically mean high liquidity. An asset with a large market cap but low liquidity can still be highly volatile when large buy or sell order.

However, when compared with the overall market size, I also think market size is one of the biggest factor determining Bitcoin's volatility. You are right. The larger the marketcap, the less volatile the price tend to be because it take much more capital to cause the same level of price movement. That's why it is much harder to push Bitcoin sharply up or down today than it was in the early day.

The larger the marketcap, the lower the volatility, and unfortunately, Bitcoin is no exception.

[Zackz5000]

Investors are wiser now. They are waiting, and I think their patience has been fruitful because I believe they have already made a lot of profits from Bitcoin.

Bitcoin volatility is something that is difficult to understand, and that is why the rule of buy low, sell high still applies. Today, many traders and retail investors are looking at the institutional investors because they are the groups who could really shake the market and maybe even try to manipulate it. Still, I highly doubt they would just sell without any good reason, so if it keeps on falling is somehow a low chance.

Some may think it's cheaper now, so instead of a fall, you may see an upward motion.

Buying at low price and selling high should be applied when the investors has arrived to there Bitcoin over accumulation phase and only when the price they bought is higher than the price they are selling with.
Bitcoin as a volatile asset will be hard to predict what the price will be in a long run, it's also possible that the price we accumulate at now may still drop further in the future or also increase more as the case may be so as an investor we shouldn't have high expectations from our Bitcoin investment let's keep accumulating with our discretionary income and continue holding for long what ever happened in the future is what we should accept.

[Derekfunds]

I don't know if Bitcoin volatility will keep failing but one thing I'm sure of is that Bitcoin can not be like Gold because they are two different asset and they are not in same form. Bitcoin is digital while Gold is a tangible asset which means that Bitcoin can not be move or carried physically from one point to another but Gold can be moved from place to place physically which is why crisis often affect the value unlike Bitcoin.

[Brizi5000]

I don't know if Bitcoin volatility will keep failing but one thing I'm sure of is that Bitcoin can not be like Gold because they are two different asset and they are not in same form. Bitcoin is digital while Gold is a tangible asset which means that Bitcoin can not be move or carried physically from one point to another but Gold can be moved from place to place physically which is why crisis often affect the value unlike Bitcoin.

Bitcoins  volatility can not always be one sided, if it’s always one sided then what’s the need of the volatile nature. Investors cherish bitcoin due to its ability to rise after every market downturn, without being such volatile I don’t think many would still be investing in bitcoin. War can also have effect in the value of bitcoin, not just only gold, because There are many factors that are contributing to the value or volatility of bitcoin, we don’t seem to even know most of this factors. Over the years bitcoin have proven to be one of most valuable asset, recent data have shown its ability to rise after every market crash which is the more reason why investors should take advantage of this opportunity to buy even more and hold.

[Renampun]

Given that the current Bitcoin market capitalization is around USD 1.2 trillion, it is still relatively small compared to other markets, so it's quite reasonable to observe that the Bitcoin market's volatility tends to be higher at this time. However, that doesn't mean this volatility can't decrease.. as the market grows and liquidity increases, people will begin to see that Bitcoin isn't a speculative asset, but rather a real investment with significant potential for the long term, and Bitcoin will start to be viewed as a serious asset class. We will probably see that fewer people will trade it simply because of short-term price movements, and this could cause Bitcoin's volatility to be reduced.

[dwyane36]

Bitcoin as a volatile asset will be hard to predict what the price will be in a long run,

I disagree with that. Although Bitcoin is still a fairly volatile asset, it's actually quite possible to predict its movement over the long term. In particular, by analyzing the chart on longer time frames, you can more accurately determine BTC’s future movement.
p.s.
It’s also worth noting that BTC is far from being the most volatile asset. For example, last year, some metals were even more volatile than BTC.

[d5000]

Given that the current Bitcoin market capitalization is around USD 1.2 trillion, it is still relatively small compared to other markets,

I disagree that the market capitalization is "that" small. Bitcoin would currently be #12 of all companies, regarding market cap. Only gold and silver are valued even more than these companies, so Bitcoin is the #14th biggest asset currently.

The difference to gold and silver (silver was already surpassed by gold) regarding the perceived risk is more based on other factors than market cap alone. In my opinion as I wrote multiple times it's the "hoard and sell" investment behavior which tends to be cyclic.

In short, for less volatility, we would benefit from more long term hodlers, more both short-term and long-term non-cyclic traders (it's the mid-term cyclic traders who are the problem, those who try to ride only the bull markets and short the bear markets - but currently you also can't really blame them because it is the most profitable behavior), and more currency usage.

I think as I wrote before, we're on track (volatility is effectively going down) but the tendency is still a bit slow.