Sport betting are influencing the transfers

[Hispo]

I mean... This is a market which could be easily influenced by a few people and pocket millions of dollars single-handledly, We cannot prove there is such thing going on behind the curtain, but I would not be surprised it was that way, considering the scandals we have already see in the NBA and other leagues which were alledgelly too big to mess with betting markets, for the sake of quick money.

I lean towards the possibility of not a direct influence, until there is irrefutable proof of wrong doing.

[famososMuertos]

OP: You have "sports betting" in the title and "prediction market" in the context; they're like apples and oranges, so they're different things. Anyway, the reality is that they shouldn't influence anything at all, since if it's proven, it could be fraud.

In any case, something similar happened with Vozinha, and against all odds, it ended up in Chile.

[khatarnak]

do you think it is not organic.

You confuse odds with insider information.
Bookmakers are reacting to the market, not creating it.

[Hewlet]

Prediction market now have both Real Madrid and Barcelona at equal odds to land the midfield general, looking at this and the Vini case that is never ending and cinematic do you think it is not organic.

Regardless of the predictive market whatever, Rodri is not coming to real Madrid and for vini jnr is definitely staying at Madrid for the longest time we expect to see him play. these transfers are organic and not influenced by a third party or anything of that kind. club knows what they want based on where they are projecting to find themselves in the coming years and the kind of players they are looking out for. sports betting platform can not influence a transfer that last as much as a normal transfer lasts.

[Frankolala]

Prediction market now have both Real Madrid and Barcelona at equal odds to land the midfield general, looking at this and the Vini case that is never ending and cinematic do you think it is not organic.

Regardless of the predictive market whatever, Rodri is not coming to real Madrid and for vini jnr is definitely staying at Madrid for the longest time we expect to see him play. these transfers are organic and not influenced by a third party or anything of that kind. club knows what they want based on where they are projecting to find themselves in the coming years and the kind of players they are looking out for. sports betting platform can not influence a transfer that last as much as a normal transfer lasts.

Of course, Vini is staying in Bernabeu because an agreement has been reached with him and Real Madrid is signing a new long term contract with him. As for Rodri, he wants to play for Barcelona and not Real Madrid but the challenge he will have is if Barcelona is unable to pay the amount of money Manchester City asked for. Barcelona as usual is pricing less.

[Barikui1]

Prediction market now have both Real Madrid and Barcelona at equal odds to land the midfield general, looking at this and the Vini case that is never ending and cinematic do you think it is not organic.

By looking at this quick turn of event, it shows that in the transfer market nothing is concluded yet until the player has put pen to paper. If you take a dive into the transfer market history, you will see some deals that is almost concluded, but at the dieing minutes, the players switched to another team.

We saw that with Willian move to Chelsea, because he has already pass his medical with Tottenham Hotspur, but a single call from Jose Mourinho changes everything which made him later signed for Chelsea. So in this Rodri case, I can't bet on anything because their are possibility that a new team might even comes into the fray and surprise us all, but I believe that real madrid are still in a better position to close this deal if they can act fast.

[AHOYBRAUSE]

Right now the hottest bet in the sport world and in the prediction market is Rodri future club, before it was just Real Madrid in pole position to get the signature of the Spanish captain that one the World Cup but now it is open Rodri has opened talks with Barcelona representatives.

Prediction market now have both Real Madrid and Barcelona at equal odds to land the midfield general, looking at this and the Vini case that is never ending and cinematic do you think it is not organic.

Dude there is no influence whatsoever from any market. A transfer of this caliber includes so much money, something as small and unimportant as a prediction market couldn't be less interesting for the parties involved. Sure, some people in his crew might want to benefit from his decision and as soon as he tells them what his decision will be they will try to capitalize from it, yet this has no inpact on where he will go in the end.

[Joy_learns_crypto]

do you think it is not organic.

That is organic and I think your thought is a normal gambler's thought.
We came to the possible conclusion that they're interconnected even if they're not.
I guess that this is also a result when we gamble too much, it results to becoming worrying a lot.

I feel flattered being called a normal gambler, the problem is being called an indisciplined gambler, that I won’t take lightly lol.
The coincidences is working well for the prediction market but right now many of the transfers are now clearing
Up, Rodri has accepted Barcelona and Vini has accepted Real Madrid rather than going to Arsenal.
I think the prediction market won’t like some of the sport journalists giving direct information from players and their club.

[danherbias07]

It should have no influence over the market of players because this is done by management and owners. Also, it is a player's choice or his agent's. Maybe they are giving clues that they are really going to the favorite pick right now, and oddsmakers will just have to follow that.
I mean, why would they input that in the first place if the player or the agent themselves are not giving out clues? Also, some insiders can really get some information that we cannot have, especially the phone calls and meetings. Some of them are private, but there are eyes they cannot just avoid.

[X-ray]

Right now the hottest bet in the sport world and in the prediction market is Rodri future club, before it was just Real Madrid in pole position to get the signature of the Spanish captain that one the World Cup but now it is open Rodri has opened talks with Barcelona representatives.

It's organic. I've been following Rodri's saga since he's been linked to the Madrid last year. The fact that he has been waiting for Madrid all time, but no interest showed by Madrid. So he's just a human that can lose his patience. Beside that Barcelona is also having a lot of his national team played there.

So it's changing his mind. The odds was steadily following what the news reported. It's not getting manipulated, and it's organic pattern. No manipulation involved in Rodri's transfer. So your assumption is wrong.

[ArabBTC]

Right now the hottest bet in the sport world and in the prediction market is Rodri future club, before it was just Real Madrid in pole position to get the signature of the Spanish captain that one the World Cup but now it is open Rodri has opened talks with Barcelona representatives.

Prediction market now have both Real Madrid and Barcelona at equal odds to land the midfield general, looking at this and the Vini case that is never ending and cinematic do you think it is not organic.

Dude there is no influence whatsoever from any market. A transfer of this caliber includes so much money, something as small and unimportant as a prediction market couldn't be less interesting for the parties involved. Sure, some people in his crew might want to benefit from his decision and as soon as he tells them what his decision will be they will try to capitalize from it, yet this has no inpact on where he will go in the end.

Well said, the market has no direct impact on the transfer of a player with such pedigree as Rodri, if it were to be an upcoming star i would have considered the opinion not a player of such class that is one of Spanish best, with Rodri quality and class i doubt that anyone can influence his personal decision/choice of club, it is only him that will finally decide the club to go after several considerations and not the market.

Rodri has passed the level to be hyped, it is an upcoming star that probably the English media or any other media can hype and many clubs will be coming for as we see at times with upcoming stars, not a player like Rodri that has made significant impact in football. No club, media or market can influence his transfer.

[KTChampions]

On August 5, the chance of Real Madrid getting Rodri was 78% and Barcelona only had 3.6%, the next day it changed drastically after Rodri chose Barcelona instead of Real Madrid, this could be the consideration of other players or agents.

It is not unnatural, this is common in the transfer market, players are free to choose the club they want, including at the last second, while for the prediction market, all of the odds can change at any time because of situations like this.

- https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-rodri-transfer-20260612230519201

You missed the most important thing - pay attention to the volumes  
300k (a little more) for the entire market? That's peanuts. Premier League games generate several million per evening, and it's possible to speculate whether prediction markets reflect real odds. There are very few participants and the volumes are also small, so this market is definitely inefficient even if there are insiders. I'm still skeptical about this transfer, yesterday I made two bets on it (a move to Real and not a move to Barcelona), so far I'm in the red   But I must note that the quotes are far from 100%, unlike the case with Vinnie, when they rose to 99% even before the official announcement.

[Africolo]

Right now the hottest bet in the sport world and in the prediction market is Rodri future club, before it was just Real Madrid in pole position to get the signature of the Spanish captain that one the World Cup but now it is open Rodri has opened talks with Barcelona representatives.

Prediction market now have both Real Madrid and Barcelona at equal odds to land the midfield general, looking at this and the Vini case that is never ending and cinematic do you think it is not organic.

I don't think the sports betting influence transfers in the market because they are following up the transfer markets and possibly will create options on it for people to bet if a certain player is going to be bought by a particular club, as for Rodri he has been on top list of Real Madrid since last season even when Gaudiola was still coaching Manchester City and Rodri has already given them green light but it was Madrid that kept the move onhold and never talked about the transfer anymore.

Barcelona and Reall Madrid has shown interest in Rodri the same time and the sports betting just have to make odds for which of the teams that will land him in their club which is a very juicy one considering the two clubs that are interested in him. It's just a normal thing that happens considering the caliber of player that is being involved in the transfer, so it's not organic or whatsoever you might call it.

[Unsoldier]

Right now the hottest bet in the sport world and in the prediction market is Rodri future club, before it was just Real Madrid in pole position to get the signature of the Spanish captain that one the World Cup but now it is open Rodri has opened talks with Barcelona representatives.

...

It is already definitely known that Rodri has decided to transfer to Barcelona. In fact, even Pep Guardiola called him to convince him to move to the Catalan club. But now new information has emerged that City rejected the first offer for Rodri in the amount of 45 million euros. The English club agrees to let the player go for 80 million euros. Whether Barça will agree to such a price is not clear yet.

[Dunamisx]

You cannot establish the fact that sport bet is causing the triggers to some of this transfers, you don't know that it's after the end of a particular season comes into transfer window, which some of the teams will take their time to reorganize upon what they have and rest strategize, while some determine on weather to buy or let go of some of their players for this change to be most effective, this is entirely different from what we see today from prediction market and I don't think we are expected to be comparing them to each other.

[Pandu Geddon]

You cannot establish the fact that sport bet is causing the triggers to some of this transfers, you don't know that it's after the end of a particular season comes into transfer window, which some of the teams will take their time to reorganize upon what they have and rest strategize, while some determine on weather to buy or let go of some of their players for this change to be most effective, this is entirely different from what we see today from prediction market and I don't think we are expected to be comparing them to each other.

They found a good market that a lot of people were interested in, but of course, it had no impact on the final decision of the negotiation. Those who bet were just going based on observation or speculation. And the size of the bets leaning towards one side cannot affect the ongoing negotiation process. 
I rarely visit prediction markets because sometimes I see some really silly markets.

[liasbaa]

Right now the hottest bet in the sport world and in the prediction market is Rodri future club, before it was just Real Madrid in pole position to get the signature of the Spanish captain that one the World Cup but now it is open Rodri has opened talks with Barcelona representatives.

Prediction market now have both Real Madrid and Barcelona at equal odds to land the midfield general, looking at this and the Vini case that is never ending and cinematic do you think it is not organic.

The drama you are saying Vinicius is still not sure what he really wants. Maybe Real Madrid are not willing to increase his salary or are pressuring him to renew his contract. Arsenal are interested in him and have offered him a long term deal.

He has joined the club's training, but the controversy is still not leaving him. There is a discussion about various posts and removals on his personal social media. Whether he will play for Real Madrid or whether he has decided to go to another club.

[Bluedrem]

In gambling, reality is more available than emotions. Especially when gamblers bet on sports betting. When people bet on sports betting, they have to research the performance of the game and other things. In that case, if a good performer from someone's favorite team, i.e. a good player, is transferred to another club, then gamblers can then bet on the new team considering the performance. If they continue to bet only based on the name of the team, then there is a possibility of losing money in gambling.
So I think player transfers play a big role in sports betting.

[Natalim]

Not everything that involves betting is automatically manipulated. Prediction markets are betting too, and obviously once theres money involved, there will always be a possibility that someone may try to influence the outcome.

But thats just the reality. We cannot eliminate gambling just to make sure every decision or result is completely honest.

We can speculate when something looks suspicious, but we should never conclude that there was manipulation without evidence.

[Yabani]

Are players or clubs really going to make transfer decisions based on the betting market? That would be absurd.
In reality, the odds in betting markets shift as the stances of the players or clubs change.
If I were in Rodri's shoes, I would go to Barcelona, ​​because he would get more playing time there.
Real Madrid has an abundance of midfield options, and there is also the matter of Rodri's age.
Furthermore, Barcelona's style of play suits Rodri better.
His club might have wanted to sell him to Real Madrid, but Rodri likely wants to go to Barcelona.