Sport betting are influencing the transfers

[Ojima-ojo]

Quoting both of you, there is no need to argue about this from the discussion,  both the transfer window and the Ballon d'Or are both currently the talk of the town, because this present moment is what many football and sports fans are busy discussing, you can see a good example from this forum, as both threads have more engagement among other threads altogether for discussions.

Player's transfer discussion is at the top of all media and even not only in the Forum you can see that from other media outlets, which have led the direction of even the predictions market and it sentiments based on transfer speculations.


Rodri transfer to Barcelona discussion have not yieded any progress as the price tag by Manchester City and Barcelona offer is far from meeting a seltment stage despite the players interest in moving to Barcelona in coming season.

[Nheer]

Right now the hottest bet in the sport world and in the prediction market is Rodri future club, before it was just Real Madrid in pole position to get the signature of the Spanish captain that one the World Cup but now it is open Rodri has opened talks with Barcelona representatives.

Prediction market now have both Real Madrid and Barcelona at equal odds to land the midfield general, looking at this and the Vini case that is never ending and cinematic do you think it is not organic.

In the whole issue Real Madrid became unserious along the line else they would have easily signed Rodri even before Barcelona came into the picture. It's really a huge blow for Real Madrid no doubt because Rodri would have been the perfect fit for them and would have solved a lot of Midfield issues for them. It'll be difficult to find a more reliable player than Rodri now.

Rodri will be a very useful addition to Barcelona squad, the way he blend well in the Spain team shows it will be easier for him in Barcelona since Spanish team is dominated by Barcelona players. Maybe Madrid intensionally left Rodri, maybe they had other plans but whatever it is it better be a good reason to let a player like Rodri slip away.

[Nwada001]

In these specific cases, the prediction market serves more to show personal preferences, what the public would like. I don't believe it directly influences a player's transfer; what really matters is the value offered and the real benefits the player will have by choosing a particular team.

I also don’t see how this predicting market can influence players' transfers as long as they don’t have a direct connection with the players and it’s just them offering a predictions option to their customers, nothing more than that. I don’t know why some think that the odds made available by this market have some influence on how transfers can go.

[DiMarxist]

So what has sport betting got to do with the transfer market. Which club a player goes to this is just conspiracy theory if you ask me because, there is no correlation in what you are saying. Rodri is a player and if multiple clubs are going for his signature then, he is free to open talk with the clubs and see what they are offering.

This has nothing to do with any influence that may be said to be coming from betting companies which, are there to making money from the rest of the gambling community. Maybe you can place bet on which club Rodri will go to at the end of the day.

I think that the opposite is the case here, I am of the view that it's actually the transfer market that is influencing these casinos, because these days you just see different options of bets . All these are as a result of the fact that the transfer market has thrown it self open for drama such as this one we are seeing.

[Taricoins]

Player's transfer discussion is at the top of all media and even not only in the Forum you can see that from other media outlets, which have led the direction of even the predictions market and it sentiments based on transfer speculations.


Rodri transfer to Barcelona discussion have not yieded any progress as the price tag by Manchester City and Barcelona offer is far from meeting a seltment stage despite the players interest in moving to Barcelona in coming season.

This is a wild predicament and I haven't even noticed that this transfer has been on some gambling sites, what will happen if he doesn't really end up in any of the club, those that nullify the bet or is that a straight loss ?

Any way fir Rodri's predicament all lies with Barcelona making the final choice (financially) because after the stunt he just pulled, am not really sure Real Madrid would want him as they would not want to be as an alternative. With how fragile Barcelona finances are, I don't know if they can make Man City's offer

[Curious T]

How exactly is this happening? Is it a new thing for different clubs to bid for a player or for a player to be in a position where he has to choose one team and leave the other? Nothing about the Rodri situation is new, so I don't see how bets can affect the transfer. He would go to where he wants, and the bets will have nothing to do with it. There have been bigger big money transfer this season, and I believe there were bets on those players too. Why didn't they affect those transfers? I don't see any difference between this and betting on a match. For the match, the players play however they want to while people bet on them and the games, and it's the same with the transfers. The players go to whatever club they want to, and people bet on it.

[adultcrypto]

How exactly is this happening? Is it a new thing for different clubs to bid for a player or for a player to be in a position where he has to choose one team and leave the other? Nothing about the Rodri situation is new, so I don't see how bets can affect the transfer. He would go to where he wants, and the bets will have nothing to do with it. There have been bigger big money transfer this season, and I believe there were bets on those players too. Why didn't they affect those transfers? I don't see any difference between this and betting on a match. For the match, the players play however they want to while people bet on them and the games, and it's the same with the transfers. The players go to whatever club they want to, and people bet on it.

If you read the first post, you will understand what the OP was saying but I think the framing of the post is the problem. The future of Rodri has been one of the hottest in prediction market because the odd kept changing with time as more options are added and some removed.  As of now, it is completely uncertain where he will be going but Real Madrid and Manchester City are the most likely but we have seen Barcelona surfaced from nowhere. 

[Frankolala]

How exactly is this happening? Is it a new thing for different clubs to bid for a player or for a player to be in a position where he has to choose one team and leave the other? Nothing about the Rodri situation is new, so I don't see how bets can affect the transfer. He would go to where he wants, and the bets will have nothing to do with it. There have been bigger big money transfer this season, and I believe there were bets on those players too. Why didn't they affect those transfers? I don't see any difference between this and betting on a match. For the match, the players play however they want to while people bet on them and the games, and it's the same with the transfers. The players go to whatever club they want to, and people bet on it.

The fact is that gamblers are using every possible means to place a bet on whatever news they find interesting. I don't know why Rodri transfer has any significant difference from what have been happening in the past. Rodri is living his normal life and gamblers are already betting on his next move. Soon Polymarket will start betting on where people will go to in a day.

[alani123]

Unless the bookies and odd setters start making bets for leagues that are too small like B and C leagues in small countries what would you care about the odds affecting deals? A deal can be worth tens of millions in an A league and usually the bets for this type of activity are set for the biggest transfers in the world... So...

If the profit was too big to change the outcome the market would have to be in the billions. Maybe in a C league a 10000$ profit potential could offer enough incentive to cancel a transfer that was much smaller to begin with. But not where the bookies set their odds.

[KTChampions]

It's interesting what you mean - the odds for Rodri to stay at City/move to Real/to Barcelona appeared simultaneously, it was one market:
https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-rodri-transfer-20260612230519201/will-rodri-join-barcelona-20260612230522481
The parties are currently negotiating, and thanks to Barcelona's clownish offer, the odds have become more uncertain, and it is now possible to earn 11% if you bet on Rodri's transfer to Barcelona. It seems to me that an agreement will be reached, in the end Rodri can add from his own pocket in the worst case - he will still end up in the black since Barcelona is offering too sweet conditions.

It's a bit too speculative to say Rodri will contribute money from his own pocket. Even if the player agrees to personal term, transfer fee will usually be determined by club-to-club negotiations. It's not right to increase the probability by assuming how much of his own money Rodri is willing to pay, or even able to pay at all.

Barcelona's entry has certainly fundamentally changed the market. But if the deal falls through, that 11% could quickly become 0.
For me, this is exactly why prediction market odd are interesting.
Remaining 11% is not free profit at all. This is that price market is paying for the possibility of negotiation failing. If Barcelona eventually agrees to City's valuation then 11% looks cheap. But if they can't, that 11% goes to zero.

Considering that Rodri is doubling his salary with this move, it can be assumed that he is the most interested party here. But it’s clear that I’m exaggerating when I say that he will add from his own pocket.
As for 11%, I am currently holding the bet No, he will not move to Barcelona, ​​I entered at the level of 16 cents. Now it doesn’t look as profitable as when I entered this bet. But anything below 10 cents makes sense, since besides the possibility of negotiations falling through, there's also the possibility that he won't be able to pass a medical examination, for example. Basically, as always, both options are possible 

[yudi09]

Prediction market now have both Real Madrid and Barcelona at equal odds to land the midfield general, looking at this and the Vini case that is never ending and cinematic do you think it is not organic.

Barcelona’s final offer to Manchester City will be made shortly. This appears to be the final offer, so there is a possibility that both sides will reach an agreement.
Vini has entered a new chapter at Real Madrid now that the deal between the two clubs has been finalized.
Rather than betting on Rodri, betting on who will win La Liga—Real Madrid or Barcelona—is more interesting. Polymarket is giving Barcelona good odds.

[Curious T]

As of now, it is completely uncertain where he will be going but Real Madrid and Manchester City are the most likely but we have seen Barcelona surfaced from nowhere. 

I guess you haven't been following the Rodri news at all, because if you were, you would know Real Madrid are out of the race. It is now only Barcelona. So as of right now, it's either Rodri goes to Barcelona or remains at Real Madrid. As it stands, Barcelona looks like the more likely destination. Man City and Barcelona are already negotiating a fee, so it shouldn't be long now before they agree on a price.

I don't know why Rodri transfer has any significant difference from what have been happening in the past.

There is no difference, aside from the fact that it looks so certain it was going to Madrid, but the deal was hijacked by Barcelona and Rodri himself made a U-turn and choose Barcelona. Transfers of top clubs like Barcelona and Madrid for a player like Rodri who is a Balon d'or winner are always popular.

[Bigjoe33]

Sports betting simply responds to the dynamics of these player transfers. If they identify a higher probability that a player will join a particular club, they will adjust the odds according to them. It all depends on how the player's negotiations with the interested teams proceed, and that can change at any time. That's why betting on player transfers is quite unpredictable and full of surprises.

Fact, where a player is going to go it not determined by market prediction, but prediction market only reacts to new information, being it that a club shows interest, or even a fresh report. Final decision it for the negotiations, players and the clubs, this why u will take note that prediction can change many times before you see an official announcement.

Yea, I believe what ever is happening is just only but natural, no gimmicks. Until there is an official announcement, else, the odds will keep fluctuating daily. It is what it is.

Compared the Arsenal Vini move saga, the odds will always fly. Imagine Arsenal landing such a player. Of course, the probability will be high, and certainly, odds adjusted and readjusted every now and then to suit the present atmosphere and rumor of what might potentially be the outcome of such happenings. Nobody wants to loose out completely, not the bookmakers, not the club, not the players, not even the bettors..