It's Bitcoin reached bottom ? Let's see with the cycle

[ryzaadit]

I think personally buying bitcoin the best ways is always seeing based on cycle even we can't determined every cycle is the same but at least every cycle should have some same rhyme for the movement. Example, we can see from the last few cycle from All-time high to bearish cycle:

• 2011: -93.6%
• 2013: -85.9%
• 2017: -83.9%
• 2021: -77.5%
• 2025: ?

Now we are sitting on around 54%, and people will think is these the best price to buy bitcoin or not ? or maybe there has some question from community do we already reached bottom or not ? If we looks based on history, in every cycle there has some intereseting stuff which is movement rhyme from each bearish after creating all-time-high. Each cycle the bearish movement is decrease on every cycle we meet, we can take a note from the lowest decreasement on 2013 to 2017: 2% and the highest decreasement on 2011 to 2013: 8.2% and make those a range for entry into bitcoin.

I looks the all-time-high price and these is the price:
- $124,752.13 from Coinmarketcap
- $126,198.07 from Chats GPT

Wise man said, always tried to spread the nets!
In my trade principle, I have some strategy always tried to spread the nets with 3 order no matter for Buy/Sell. We can tried to spread 3 buy order based on the range decreasement data which is from 2% to 8.2% on each buy order spread them different 3% counted from the previous bearish -77.5%.

• Order 1: -75.5%
• Order 2: -72.3%
• Order 3: -69.1%

If we follow these pattern, then the price entry we are taken on these range:
ATH $124,752.13 from Coinmarketcap

• Order 1: $30,532.27
• Order 2: $34,547.84
• Order 3: $38,548.91

ATH $126,198.07 from Chats GPT

• Order 1: $30,920.03
• Order 2: $34,947.56
• Order 3: $38,996.62

What do you think ? do we are gonna to see at least these estimation bottom with the range decreasement based on previous cycle bottom or maybe we are gonna to see newest decreasement can passed more than 8.2%. Feels to share your bottom estimation, and off course with the reason behind it would be very appreciated.

Note: Don't spam unnecessary post. Thank you!

[Oshosondy]

I looks the all-time-high price and these is the price:
- $124,752.13 from Coinmarketcap
- $126,198.07 from Chats GPT

Bitcoin all time high on every sites that I saw it is above $126000, so it is also Coinmarketcap.

The all time high on Coinmarketcap is 126198.06 which you can also see it yourself on the image.




If the pattern is followed, it will not go below $40000.

Bitcoin is not going below $50000 this time.

[sergiorus]

Now try to calculate the relative drawdown - how much it is down compared to how high it went from the previous ATH in 2021. 

Then if you compare that value with the previous cycles you'll see we are already in one of the worst bear markets ever. Possibly the worst one if we account for the liquidity.

[OcTradism]

I think personally buying bitcoin the best ways is always seeing based on cycle even we can't determined every cycle is the same but at least every cycle should have some same rhyme for the movement. Example, we can see from the last few cycle from All-time high to bearish cycle:

• 2011: -93.6%
• 2013: -85.9%
• 2017: -83.9%
• 2021: -77.5%
• 2025: ?

Based on these historical correction percents from past market cycles and the ATH price about $126,200, I would like to calculate possible bottom prices with percents of correction from -60% to -70%. I know Bitcoin might dive deeper than -70% from ATH but my intention is not finding an absolute bottom price for my entries, not a single entry because I DCA Bitcoin with time.

So with any price in the range from $37,860 to $50,480, I will more intensively do my Bitcoin DCA. If price falls deeper than $37,860, it's good and I am just fine, no problem with my DCA.

[Oshosondy]

Now try to calculate the relative drawdown - how much it is down compared to how high it went from the previous ATH in 2021. 

Then if you compare that value with the previous cycles you'll see we are already in one of the worst bear markets ever. Possibly the worst one if we account for the liquidity.

With the reducing volatility, if we should compare it with the past, bitcoin supposed to fall between $40000 to $45000 during the bear market, but bitcoin is not going below $55000 is what we have been seeing. Bitcoin is not going below $50000.

So with any price in the range from $37,860 to $50,480, I will more intensively do my Bitcoin DCA. If price falls deeper than $37,860, it's good and I am just fine, no problem with my DCA.

Anyone that have began DCA will make high amount of money from bitcoin investment in the next 3 years, but bitcoin is not going as low as that price mentioned.

[ryzaadit]

Bitcoin all time high on every sites that I saw it is above $126000, so it is also Coinmarketcap.
The all time high on Coinmarketcap is 126198.06 which you can also see it yourself on the image.

Thank you.
I'm not seeing these during the creation of my thread, I was checking from the graph price and find only $124,752.13. Thank you for the correction.

If the pattern is followed, it will not go below $40000.
Bitcoin is not going below $50000 this time.

Some speculation is indeed estimation for bottom around number 50,000$. I also buy on these price zone, but not too heavy, I want to make some experiments with this estimation cycle. If failed, at least still get some bags on 50,000$ for the bottom.

Now try to calculate the relative drawdown - how much it is down compared to how high it went from the previous ATH in 2021. 
Then if you compare that value with the previous cycles you'll see we are already in one of the worst bear markets ever. Possibly the worst one if we account for the liquidity.

Would be very nice, if you share the number with us. That's how we can see and discuss with a good discussion, and we can see why you think we already on the worst bearish cycle ever.

[jcojci]

I predict the pattern will be different than previous cycle because with many institutional play, that could change the cycle. But the bottom still not show (I guess) because the price still hanging around at $60k-$66k. I guess the price will go down for more below than $60k but not more reach $51k or lower.

I just checked the previous year where in 2021, the price reach $64k-$69k then down to $15k and stay for a while. But the price still fluctuating until reach $73k and make a new ATH. I could be wrong because I am not an expert and just see the movement so far.

[OcTradism]

So with any price in the range from $37,860 to $50,480, I will more intensively do my Bitcoin DCA. If price falls deeper than $37,860, it's good and I am just fine, no problem with my DCA.

Anyone that have began DCA will make high amount of money from bitcoin investment in the next 3 years, but bitcoin is not going as low as that price mentioned.

I only calculated and gave a price range and if you actually read my post, you would know that I don't find absolute bottom. I already applied Dollar Cost Averaging strategy for my portfolio accumulation with time, and I only plan to do more intensive DCA purchases when price falls to that bottom range that is actually a wide range.

So whether Bitcoin will fall to $38,000 or not, it's not too important with me, and I won't miss this bear market with many months and enough good entry prices for my accumulation. Only people who want to find absolute bear market bottom, try to speculate perfect price and time for their purchases will have more risk of missing the train, and wasting many good prices for their entries and accumulation.

[sergiorus]

Would be very nice, if you share the number with us. That's how we can see and discuss with a good discussion, and we can see why you think we already on the worst bearish cycle ever.

There are several measures and ways to assess it. Depends on how scary or complicated you want it to look. The math can be indeed quite complicated though and the saddest part is - no one will care.

Let's look at some simple data - days spend below the previous all time highs. We will compare the tops of 2018 and 2021 and the values will be respectively $20,000 and $69,000.

In 2022 we had 119 daily candles closed below the ATH of 2018. Right now, in 2026, we are on our way to close 108th candle below $69,000 today.




But the interesting thing is, the bottom is usually set quite early into that accumulation period:

- in 2022 we reached the bottom on the 53th daily closure below the ATH and repeated it on the 65th.
- in 2026, if we assume the bottom is in, it was reached on the 61th daily candle close below the ATH and then repeated on the 67th.

 
So, considering we are still in an illiquid summer period, we are on track to have a longer accumulation below the previous ATH than we did in 2022 and even now, it already shows you that this bear market is at least as brutal as it was in 2022 after the FTX, Luna, Celsius etc etc.

[AakZaki]

With the reducing volatility, if we should compare it with the past, bitcoin supposed to fall between $40000 to $45000 during the bear market, but bitcoin is not going below $55000 is what we have been seeing. Bitcoin is not going below $50000.

It seems like you're in a hurry to say that Bitcoin hasn't dropped below $55,000, isn't the time to the end of the year still more than 4 months away?
 
You need to note: The end of the Price low in the previous bearish cycle of 2018, it occurred in December 2018.
While the End of Price was the lowest in the bearish cycle of 2022, it occurred in November 2022.

It's still not mid-August 2026, If you're expecting $40,000 to $45,000, I think you'll need a little patience at least until the end of the year.

And you seem too sure to say it won't fall below $50,000, but did you realize that the previous price from $93,670 down to $60,000 (-36%) it only took 3 weeks, and from $74,092 down to $59,130 (-20%) it only took 1 week.

If this scenario repeats itself in the next 4 months with a 30% drop as well, $50,000 is not impossible to pass to a lower price.

[Frankolala]

I wouldn't know if bitcoin will dip below $50k in this circle but I know that we haven't seen the bottom of the bear market yet because we are still in August and I expect the market to still dip more before the end of this year. I will wait patiently till November-December to see if we will see a drastic dip which will take the price below $50k. The market is unpredictable and we can only make speculations.

[Abu-Naim]

According to CoinGecko, the all time high was $126,080, which shows that the parent price is now already 49.2 down, and according your order pattern, the least ordered -75.5% shows buying at $30,889 while the highest order at 69.1% will be at $38,958; these generally means your orders will sit for Bitcoin price to crime below $40k.
Is that even possible? I don’t think so, the least I see Bitcoin coming if it go bearish the more is $50k, I will not expect Bitcoin to drop below $50k.

[Alphakilo]

I think personally buying bitcoin the best ways is always seeing based on cycle even we can't determined every cycle is the same but at least every cycle should have some same rhyme for the movement. Example, we can see from the last few cycle from All-time high to bearish cycle:

• 2011: -93.6%
• 2013: -85.9%
• 2017: -83.9%
• 2021: -77.5%
• 2025: ?

Now we are sitting on around 54%, and people will think is these the best price to buy bitcoin or not ? or maybe there has some question from community do we already reached bottom or not ? If we looks based on history, in every cycle there has some intereseting stuff which is movement rhyme from each bearish after creating all-time-high. Each cycle the bearish movement is decrease on every cycle we meet, we can take a note from the lowest decreasement on 2013 to 2017: 2% and the highest decreasement on 2011 to 2013: 8.2% and make those a range for entry into bitcoin.

I looks the all-time-high price and these is the price:
- $124,752.13 from Coinmarketcap
- $126,198.07 from Chats GPT

Wise man said, always tried to spread the nets!
In my trade principle, I have some strategy always tried to spread the nets with 3 order no matter for Buy/Sell. We can tried to spread 3 buy order based on the range decreasement data which is from 2% to 8.2% on each buy order spread them different 3% counted from the previous bearish -77.5%.

• Order 1: -75.5%
• Order 2: -72.3%
• Order 3: -69.1%

If we follow these pattern, then the price entry we are taken on these range:
ATH $124,752.13 from Coinmarketcap

• Order 1: $30,532.27
• Order 2: $34,547.84
• Order 3: $38,548.91

ATH $126,198.07 from Chats GPT

• Order 1: $30,920.03
• Order 2: $34,947.56
• Order 3: $38,996.62

What do you think ? do we are gonna to see at least these estimation bottom with the range decreasement based on previous cycle bottom or maybe we are gonna to see newest decreasement can passed more than 8.2%. Feels to share your bottom estimation, and off course with the reason behind it would be very appreciated.

Note: Don't spam unnecessary post. Thank you!

I would like to draw your attention to the recent advent and launch of spot ETF, corporate treasuries and sovereign buyers who hold much more quantity of Bitcoin than most retail investors who have been in Bitcoin and have experienced the all time high of past years after a halving. Am sure this is one very good reason why the price can't easily get to or surpass all time highs of before.

It is therefore paramount to not base limit orders because of percentage math performance from previous all time highs. It's also good to use dynamic DCA strategy which can also allow for DCA across time instead of just price.

[M47AK16]

With the reducing volatility, if we should compare it with the past, bitcoin supposed to fall between $40000 to $45000 during the bear market, but bitcoin is not going below $55000 is what we have been seeing. Bitcoin is not going below $50000.

It seems like you're in a hurry to say that Bitcoin hasn't dropped below $55,000, isn't the time to the end of the year still more than 4 months away?
 
You need to note: The end of the Price low in the previous bearish cycle of 2018, it occurred in December 2018.
While the End of Price was the lowest in the bearish cycle of 2022, it occurred in November 2022.

It's still not mid-August 2026, If you're expecting $40,000 to $45,000, I think you'll need a little patience at least until the end of the year.

And you seem too sure to say it won't fall below $50,000, but did you realize that the previous price from $93,670 down to $60,000 (-36%) it only took 3 weeks, and from $74,092 down to $59,130 (-20%) it only took 1 week.

If this scenario repeats itself in the next 4 months with a 30% drop as well, $50,000 is not impossible to pass to a lower price.

This is true. We are not done with the year yet, and we could definitely see it reach bottom still. We need to wait, and the October-November-December period will be the period where most of the big drops happened before, and October seems like the period where it will be one year since all time high and could be the period where we could see a drop. I am expecting it to be happening at October, but of course if anything "good" happens during that time, then we could postpone it to November or December as well.

There is no guarantee that we are going to end up with a good result during this period; just because we are in August doesn't mean that the drops are done. We are in 2026, and that is, according to a four-year cycle period, still the bear market year, and we should not see any decent recovery just yet.

Next year we could start to see some recovery, not a lot but a bit, and in 2028 we are going to see a huge increase, probably above 100k and even more. But this year, in 2026, we are not going to see something like that. So for the next 4 months we should expect some more drop, and reaching 55k or under should not be something that would be so impossible; it is quite literally right there and could happen.

[nara1892]

I won't base my comments on historical patterns, instead, I am relying on my own market analysis of the current situation. I just checked CoinMarketCap and observed that the year began with a downtrend that actually started last October (based on the 1-month timeframe), we are currently in a bear market, and the price is undergoing its second correction since that decline began.



Honestly, I cannot say for certain that the price will drop below $50,000. Why? Because the current correction has reached the exact support level seen in August 2024 a point where the price typically rebounds. While I sincerely hope this marks the start of a price rally, the reality is that we are in a bear market therefore, I anticipate the price will fluctuate between $59,000 and $82,000 over the coming months.

[ryzaadit]

We need to wait, and the October-November-December period will be the period where most of the big drops happened before, and October seems like the period where it will be one year since all time high and could be the period where we could see a drop. I am expecting it to be happening at October, but of course if anything "good" happens during that time, then we could postpone it to November or December as well.

I am usually looking forward to see on Christmas, especially in winter.

Been facing a bear market, and Christmas is always an interesting time to see for the movement will there has some big drops or not. I still believe, Christmas have some drop and having some estimation we can reached bottom in the range at least 40,000-45,000$ even some people says maybe the max bottom price is 50,000$.

-snip-

Hi mate, would be very appreciated to not quote the full thread. In case you want to comme on some part, just put those into the quote. Thank you!