Which of these modern sports is actually the easiest to predict?

[programmer3666]

My obvious choice is football, because I have followed football from my childhood days and coming from a country like Nigeria it is almost impossible not to grow up around the game. You will see people playing it everywhere you watch it on television, you discuss it with friends and families and with time you naturally become very familiar with the teams, players, competitions and how the game works.

But now I feel that familiarity from early stages is what makes football feel easier to predict for me or is it that football is actually easier compared to other sports. Some of us don't have the same exposure to all this professional sports like the NBA, tennis, golf, cricket, horse racing, Swimming, Car Racing or even wrestling. Some of these sports are not things you see physically around you on a regular basis, like our first real exposure to some of them was through television or in some cases, by going online to understand the rules and how the sport is actually played.

Someone who grew up watching basketball every day, for example will naturally find NBA games much easier to understand and predict than football and someone who has followed tennis for years might also say the same about tennis.

For those who have followed different sports over the years. Out of football, tennis, NBA, Swimming, golf, horse racing, wrestling, Car Racing, Hockey and other modern sports, which one do you personally find easiest to predict and do you think that is because the sport is actually more predictable or it is simply because you understand it much better!!!

[Orpichukwu]

But now I feel that familiarity from early stages is what makes football feel easier to predict for me or is it that football is actually easier compared to other sports. Some of us don't have the same exposure to all this professional sports like the NBA, tennis, golf, cricket, horse racing, Swimming, Car Racing or even wrestling. Some of these sports are not things you see physically around you on a regular basis, like our first real exposure to some of them was through television or in some cases, by going online to understand the rules and how the sport is actually played.

I don’t think it has anything to do with physical seeing or participating in the sport; it's just about something of interest. Some people just watch it on TV, got attached to it, and from their following up on the sport in every season and keeping to details can get you familiar with that sport.

For those who have followed different sports over the years. Out of football, tennis, NBA, Swimming, golf, horse racing, wrestling, Car Racing, Hockey and other modern sports, which one do you personally find easiest to predict and do you think that is because the sport is actually more predictable or it is simply because you understand it much better!!!
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Football is still very much easier for me and other sports. I don’t follow them up; it’s just seasonal stuff, but you see horse racing. I don’t see it as something one can rely on being familiar with to predict.

[Ayers]

I wouldn't say football is easiest to predict. Rather I think familiarity increases our confidence a lot. But it doesn't necessarily increase prediction accuracy. If someone has watched football since childhood, they will understand team strength, player, tactic, injuries, league pattern etc. much faster. As a result football may seem easy to them. But as you said a lifelong NBA follower may feel same confidence about basketball.

I personally find tennis to be much cleaner than football. There are only two player, no draw and relatively structured analysis can be done on surface, serve/return number, fatigue, head-to-head, injury, etc. But this can also be misleading, any hidden injury or physical problem can change the entire probability.

[Ashawowo(OS)]

It's not really about easiest, it's about the one you identify with since what appears natural to you would definitely be very easy for you to predict. I'll go with football since I play and it's easier to understand and predict. I also have a friend who's a basketballer and has zero interests in football, he bets steadily on basketball games as well, so it's more about what is appealing to us.

[Hispo]

I would not say football is easier to predict in general. It is rather about how much exposure you have had to football through your life, which has given you much information and intuition which are obvious advantages not all people within the betting ecosystem have.

I did not grow up watching as much football as you, so to me it takes more effort to correctly predict the outcome of a game. If football was actually as predictable as it is in the eyes with someone with much experience, then odds and the market overall would look completely different from what we have today.

[CryptoBuds]

You know, in football, low scoring can form interesting problem. Even if a team has real win probability of over 60% but a deflection, red card, penalty or goalkeeper error can alter the outcome of entire match. So someone can say that they understand the game well but that doesn't mean that they could accurately assess the probability of outcome, there is a hole between this two.

So I won't automatically assume that the sport I know most about is most predictable. I'd rather see which sport or league or market consistently produces meaningful difference between my estimated probability and bookmaker's price.

[Su-asa]

Obviously football would be the most selected and that is because out of all the sports games it is the most watched and also the most popular game but I feel like it is not easy to predict Than the others. First of all, the reason why we sat football is easy to predict is because that's the sports game that we are used to. The same way one might find betting on football easier is the same way others find games like basketball and ice hockey, I think that it's all just a matter of preference.

[Sandra_hakeem]

I wouldn't say football is easiest to predict. Rather I think familiarity increases our confidence a lot. But it doesn't necessarily increase prediction accuracy. If someone has watched football since childhood, they will understand team strength, player, tactic, injuries, league pattern etc. much faster. As a result football may seem easy to them. But a lifelong NBA follower may feel same confidence about basketball.

That was exactly my first thought about this topic. What is easy to predict for you might be difficult for someone else who doesn't have any form interest or passion for it. Although football is one of the most popular sports in the world, I still find memes on the Internet like "a game with a team of 22 grown men running around and chasing an inflated leather" very funny.

What am I trying to say in essence, every sport has a fan that has spent years memorizing every single proceedings, and they will eventually find their safe spot. The casino players are not exempted from this discussion.

[Makus]

I think it's all about betting on the game that you are actually good at because there is nothing like a game that's easy to predict. If any game was actually easy to predict people would be winning consistently, no aspect of betting is easy and that is just the first part I wanted to point out to you.

The game people watch the most is football and they can bet on this game comfortably more than any other game because this is the sport that they are familiar with.

[EluguHcman]

I also go for football game and I guess that is definitely going to be majority choices becaus, football is one of the most favorite sport or game events that brings the people from home and away together as a fanbase.

A lot of money is also invested heavily to plan a more better event memories in football. Football game is loved that there is a local and international leagues just to allow players (footballers) according to their stages.

Football like you said, is also a game event that most of us had been participating in the activities from our Child. So following it up to our adulthoods as today should profer us better experience.

[Cantsay]

I think a lot of people would go with basketball, and some of the things I see some punters do with basketball games have given me the impression that there is a huge win rate in that sport.

I have seen people post tickets containing basketball, and also, most of the time, most of those bets end up being correct, but when the same is done with football, it is more difficult to get a win from it.

People interested in football are more, but overall I think basketball is going to take the win (in terms of wins).

[Youngrebel]

It's not really about easiest, it's about the one you identify with since what appears natural to you would definitely be very easy for you to predict. I'll go with football since I play and it's easier to understand and predict. I also have a friend who's a basketballer and has zero interests in football, he bets steadily on basketball games as well, so it's more about what is appealing to us.

I agree with your point, it is all about the one you choose to go with and definitely a lot of people would go for football but there are bettors that would make other choices like basketball and ice hockey and so on, it is all about finding the sports you are good at but no one can be perfect when it comes to predicting any type of sports games at all, no matter how good out analysis might be.

Your interest is what matters the most, this is what is going to make you do proper research on that sports before betting, if a particular sport is more easier to predict than others then it means that every bettor would be focused on it whether they are interested in it or not but that's not really how it works.

Lastly, just because betting on a sport is appealing doesn't mean that we should forget the rule of betting responsible, a lot of people bet carelessly because they think that they are familiar with a particular sports game, this makes them over confident.

[Smack That Ace]

do you think that is because the sport is actually more predictable or it is simply because you understand it much better!!!

You are used to watching football since childhood so football seem easy and predictable to you. But the reality is there is no sport in bookie that is inherently easy, and just understanding any game will not guarantee us winning our bet!

As you asked, is any sport truly easier than other or does it seem more comfortable because we understand it more?

I would say that it could be your familiarity bias. Since most of these sports are team game, there are hundreds of uncertain variable at work here, such as player injuriy, weather, referee, injury time goals etc,,,

As sports bettor, it is necessary to apprehend that odds of any fair sport event cannot be predicted by eyeing it every day since childhood. Sometime, due to the Illusion of Control, it can seem like I know the player, so I know the outcome. Bookmakers take advantage of this weak mentality of ours in general!

[bitbollo]

It would definitely be easier and profitable to bet ONLY live games/events.
There are bookmakers that are offering p2p gambling experience... and you can also work as "the house", accepting bets from other players.
In the past I was using betting bots likewise geektoys on this platform.
This software allows to place dozen of bets (in a matter of few seconds) based on your instructions.

Well, here they could tax the winnings of profitable players up to...40% !
Probably these are like "operators" and not "gamblers". Only them can afford this amount of fees.
Some sports can be seen as easiest than others (at least for them).
One of these sports is... horse racing! Despite this has been considered as one of the hardest... there are some players that can be really good to predict some outcomes.

[ralle14]

I've bet on several sports, and here's my simple list from easiest to hardest. I'd rather not put a lot of levels because even in the easiest sports you can still have a bad time, but you'll start to get the hang of it once the season progresses.

The ones at the bottom are the sports I wish I didn't touch, they're very unpredictable, and even with the stats backing the favorites, the underdogs can always pounce with an upset. Those in the middle are like a coinflip, sometimes they can be predictable, and other times it doesn't make sense with everyone possibly beating everyone.

• NFL/NBA/Soccer
• Esports/Rugby
• MLB/NHL/Tennis

[BRINIRHA]

It depends on our preferences because everything will feel much easier when we like the sport.
When betting happens then surely we must try to do some analysis first before betting and this will be much easier if we understand and like the sport we want to bet on.

I find football and badminton a lot easier because I follow these sports including when there is competition going on but this will be different than other people. I would also consider the NBA the hardest here because I don't follow this sport so I become a stranger. Even if I try to force myself with a glance it won't help anything because I don't understand which players or which clubs are possible to excel in terms of player statistics.

[tread93]

But now I feel that familiarity from early stages is what makes football feel easier to predict for me or is it that football is actually easier compared to other sports. Some of us don't have the same exposure to all this professional sports like the NBA, tennis, golf, cricket, horse racing, Swimming, Car Racing or even wrestling. Some of these sports are not things you see physically around you on a regular basis, like our first real exposure to some of them was through television or in some cases, by going online to understand the rules and how the sport is actually played.

I don’t think it has anything to do with physical seeing or participating in the sport; it's just about something of interest. Some people just watch it on TV, got attached to it, and from their following up on the sport in every season and keeping to details can get you familiar with that sport.

For those who have followed different sports over the years. Out of football, tennis, NBA, Swimming, golf, horse racing, wrestling, Car Racing, Hockey and other modern sports, which one do you personally find easiest to predict and do you think that is because the sport is actually more predictable or it is simply because you understand it much better!!!
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Football is still very much easier for me and other sports. I don’t follow them up; it’s just seasonal stuff, but you see horse racing. I don’t see it as something one can rely on being familiar with to predict.

I would have to second that.  American football to me is the easiest to follow along and make educated guesses but it helps that I used to play the sport and also have an interest and knowledge of the game.  That is just the reality of it for me. Any other sport besides golf I feel lost lol

[Oasisman]

I think the right words is "easier to understand", because predicting an outcome of a specific match can be sometimes challenging regardless of how familiar you are with that particular sport.
The odds can also mess up your predictions.

When you say "easier to predict" that means you have high winning rate and should very profitable in sports betting.
The only reason why you think that the sport you like is easier to predict, is because you already have deep knowledge and understanding around that league. So, that means you know who's the underdog and who's not, but the odds will make it challenging for you to predict whether your bets are gonna win.

[angrybirdy]

It’s not all about guessing what’s the easiest to predict because we all answer based on the sports we’ve actually been watching or keeping an eye on since the beginning. We can predict in sports betting, especially if we know what the game was all about and how the players served their purpose in winning that specific game...We all have different answers, maybe some are football fans while others would choose basketball or tennis because it really depends on our own perspective and favoritism. Everything is easier to predict as long as we know what’s happening in that game from its history up to the recent happenings in that sport. please note that it helps us to determine a good prediction when we know the sports current form, players injuries, their previous performances and how those players usually play against their rivals. Those things can help us to have abetter idea of what might happen, tho there’s no guarantee that the prediction will turns right.

[m2017]

You will see people playing it everywhere you watch it on television, you discuss it with friends and families and with time you naturally become very familiar with the teams, players, competitions and how the game works.

There are millions of such spectator-observers. Does everyone who places a bet strike it lucky? Of course not. This means that all of this is not enough, and the likelihood of success is influenced by a certain "independent" factor - luck.

For those who have followed different sports over the years. Out of football, tennis, NBA, Swimming, golf, horse racing, wrestling, Car Racing, Hockey and other modern sports, which one do you personally find easiest to predict and do you think that is because the sport is actually more predictable or it is simply because you understand it much better!!!

What percentage does "luck" account for? It is a fixed value, isn't it? That implies it is a constant across all sports. Consequently, the forecasting process is the same for every sport. Yes, you might feel more confident and find it easier to place a bet on a sport you have followed since childhood (whereas another bettor might find it more difficult), but does that actually increase the constant value of luck? I suspect not.