Will 2026 Q3 be different for bitcoin

[dwyane36]

The data looks interesting but I don't think it's enough for us to expect this year's Q3 to experience the same volatility of the previous years. Looking at the market, we can't shy away from the fact that it's changed a lot from what it used to be. Institutional presence is much higher than it's been in the past and with the volume of money they've invested in the Bitcoin market, I will not be surprised if we end up with a different kind of Q3.

Based on data from spot ETFs, institutional investors’ interest in BTC and other cryptocurrencies is currently at a low point. It is significantly lower than it was last summer, for example. As for volatility, it is precisely institutional investors who can trigger it. For example, at the beginning of the summer, there was a record outflow of funds from spot BTC ETFs, which in turn triggered a sell-off down to $57k.

[aoluain]

We are already half way through Q3 and the market is still Bearish.

There is a slight chance that there will be signs of the market coming to an end of that but
I still think we have yet to see the bottom of this Bearish market and that may happen in
September or October.

With that said I am expecting Q4 to be "different for Bitcoin" and the markets will start moving
in the direction a lot of people are waiting for now for months, thats UP!

[EarnOnVictor]

so therefore bitcoin always creates room for fresh speculation on the market to record each time, now the 3rd quarter of 2026 is few weeks ahead, and this discussion as for what bitcoin market chart will look like, checking the above image gives us clear insights to how Q3 record have been since 2013-2025 now entering 2026 and the discussion now is what trend bitcoin is going to take in this round of the Q3?

I don't get? Q3 started in July, so it's not something we are still looking up to to begin. And so far, it has been positive for Bitcoin; thanks to July candle that is bullish from the beginning to the end. But it's getting shaky in August, though the month has been positive so far, but judging by the current market status, the sellers seem to be taking over again. And if it could slip below $62,184, it can't be good, especially if August closes negatively, that might push a negative price action on September, which might erased the initial gains of the quarter.

[goldkingcoiner]

I do not see a lot of change right now because the market is too undecisive right now. Do we keep going down, are we going up or do we just plateau for a while until something shakes Bitcoin up again? Fomo or fud I am going to buy either way.

I am waiting for 1mill+, not 100K. If we go up now I am guessing that we will stay within the area of 100K anyway. Bitcoin is far too oversold by what I am seeing.

Let's watch the whales and see what they say and what they do...

[Jegileman]

We have practically seen how the market has been moving from Q1-Q3 that we are in now. The best conclusion I can come up with as regards to Q4 is that, it will end in a greenish state but bitcoin won’t increase so significantly that we will say that the bull run is coming again. The state of the market currently is not showing any sign of that. Before we get to see a very bullish momentum in the market, it is most probably going to be by next year, I don’t think we can see any of such this year. The market will continue to amuse us and let’s not be surprised that by end of the year, bitcoin won’t increase significantly from the current price it’s trading at now.

[danherbias07]

I don't see it going below $55k, and I also don't see it going above $70k until the end of the year. I think this is where Bitcoin will be stagnant, and it's possible that it will also be the bottom. My prediction is that Bitcoin is already setting its new bottom, and it is unlikely to go further down.
If everything goes better and some investors find the strength to keep holding, I think $60k will be a good bottom, and we may just need to wait for something big that will come out for it to be pumped again. It's just my own prediction, though, and I am crossing my fingers for that.

[AakZaki]

Bitcoin is known not to repeat constantly same market trends, so therefore bitcoin always creates room for fresh speculation on the market to record each time, now the 3rd quarter of 2026 is few weeks ahead, and this discussion as for what bitcoin market chart will look like, checking the above image gives us clear insights to how Q3 record have been since 2013-2025 now entering 2026

However that statement is not entirely true, let us note that in Q4 when the bearish cycle took place, everything ended in the red. If you also look at the more detailed monthly returns, in August when the bearish cycle all ended in red candles as well.

the discussion now is what trend bitcoin is going to take in this round of the Q3?

The return in the table shows 11.34%, while at the moment, when I made this post the Q3 return has been around 8.16%

Very likely that this Q3 end up with bullish pattern just the way many of us have already speculated since the end of last month, you can also see it as at present that the market is showing more indication for rising and then seems to be support at $69,000 which is also showing that this month could go bullish anytime from now, targeting $70,000 is very possible and even beyond before August go to an end.

Bulshit.. Based on what data are you saying this? How can you say there is support at $69,000, while currently the price of Bitcoin is $63,350. So now you are found out that you don't understand basic terms like this.

Remember Bearish is not over yet, If you say it only based on unfounded opinions you should keep quiet, so as not to be caught stupid as you said above.

According to the data I read from the candles with all the indicators I use, the trading volume in mid-August is not higher than last July. While candles also show a long wick at the top, it signifies that selling pressure is more predominant.

On the other hand, it also shows that the price high in August has not been able to break through the dynamic resistance, so everything you said has not been realized.

[alastantiger]

The data looks interesting but I don't think it's enough for us to expect this year's Q3 to experience the same volatility of the previous years. Looking at the market, we can't shy away from the fact that it's changed a lot from what it used to be. Institutional presence is much higher than it's been in the past and with the volume of money they've invested in the Bitcoin market, I will not be surprised if we end up with a different kind of Q3.

Will it become a bull season all of a sudden this year,  I do not think the market will change that way in Q3 of 2026 as we are still going to see the market struggle again as more buyers begin to panic and sell. The institutional investors coming into the market made the market to have a lot of inconsistency and that is affecting the way the market used to be interpreted, people are beginning to think we are going to have a bull season during bear season years but I do not think that is what is going to happen. We are still going to continue as the market use to behave with just some slight differences since the market is bigger now, hence we should not expect 2026 to be any different from how 2022 was as it is the year after the market peaked.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

I don't see it going below $55k, and I also don't see it going above $70k until the end of the year. I think this is where Bitcoin will be stagnant, and it's possible that it will also be the bottom. My prediction is that Bitcoin is already setting its new bottom, and it is unlikely to go further down.
If everything goes better and some investors find the strength to keep holding, I think $60k will be a good bottom, and we may just need to wait for something big that will come out for it to be pumped again. It's just my own prediction, though, and I am crossing my fingers for that.

With that, it means that the market is going sideways. However, we can't say that it won't go below $55k because we are in the bear market and I believed that we haven't seen the final capitulation of the market. The lowest low is $57k, so that's about ~50% from the top.

And if we look at Bitcoin's past historical logs, the bottom seems to be around 70%. I know that past history is not a indication of future, but it's better to still prefer for the worst and not overly confident to say that we have hit the bottom. Lots of thing can happen in the future and possible to bring the prices further down.

[jossiel]

Even if this ghost month ends, we're still in a bear market. We have one month left for this 3rd quarter and I find not that much to look at it.

So, for the remaining months of the year it's best not to expect so much with it. We'll never know if this bear will already end once we end the year.

Because the possibility that it might be extended on the 1st quarter of 2026 is there, so we have to wait and watch.

[G_Besar]

Bitcoin is known not to repeat constantly same market trends, so therefore bitcoin always creates room for fresh speculation on the market to record each time, now the 3rd quarter of 2026 is few weeks ahead, and this discussion as for what bitcoin market chart will look like, checking the above image gives us clear insights to how Q3 record have been since 2013-2025 now entering 2026 and the discussion now is what trend bitcoin is going to take in this round of the Q3?

I'm speculating on a price improvement for this third quarter, although not a significant increase, as everyone is currently seeing a stagnant Bitcoin price, which has been hovering between $63,000 and $65,000 in the past week. This means that the price changes that could occur this quarter may not be significant compared to the current market price. However, if the price changes become more significant before the end of the year, I believe it would be an unexpected surprise for this year. Considering Bitcoin's highest price ever reached, the current price is clearly still half of its all-time high.

[savetheFORUM]

If my prediction is gonna be true Q4 must be another green.

When analyzing the BTC chart, it’s also worth keeping in mind that, statistically speaking, August through September is not a particularly favorable period for either BTC or the cryptocurrency market as a whole. To be honest, I’d also like to see more green candles on the BTC chart by the end of this year, but for now, I remain skeptical about that.

What exactly makes you say that Q3s are particularly unfavourable for the market or BTC? Because based on the available data, there has been 13 Q3s from 2013 until now, and 7 out of them have been greens, and some of them even good ones, like more than 30% gain, which isn't bad. The point is that historical data might provide us with an idea about how things have been in the past, but that doesn't always have to be the way the market is going to react in the current times or maybe in the future. We can't think that just because September last year was a green month, then September this year will be a green month as well, because the market doesn't move in the same pattern all the time.

I agree with those saying that the direction of the market or the overall outcome of a month or even a quarter will obviously depend on the events unfolding at present, which means that even if Q3 in the previous years have been a positive one, but if something tragic happens this year, like a major hack, or something causes mass FUD and selling, then things can turn around easily even if they are looking good initially.

So, historical data might be useful, but we shouldn't take it as a guarantee that the market will play out in the same way in the current cycle as well.

[Hewlet]

checking the above image gives us clear insights to how Q3 record have been since 2013-2025 now entering 2026 and the discussion now is what trend bitcoin is going to take in this round of the Q3?

From all indicator, we won't see anything too extraordinary that's likely going to happen In the last quarter of the year. till now, there's nothing to point out to as to what is likely going to cause bitcoin to get a very high positive momentum further than where it stands now. As an investor, I choose to wait and continue buying my bitcoin stack while being open for any kind of possibilities.

While I continue to stack more bitcoin towards the end of the year, if the price goes down, I get to buy at a lower amount and if it doesn't, I will continue to invest the way I've been going about it.

[Doan9269]

The ending part of this year may not have to come in a bearish direction, we are most likely to see it more bullish, this does not mean the end of the beer market by that time, but to only show the trend and pattern at which the market is going towards by the end of the year, because many will be more profitable with their holdings by that time after they would have bought when the market fall, bitcoin will always render every investor the opportunity and equal right to making profit, once they come up with the strategy that best defined their intention over Bitcoin.

[GreatArkansas]

The data looks interesting but I don't think it's enough for us to expect this year's Q3 to experience the same volatility of the previous years. Looking at the market, we can't shy away from the fact that it's changed a lot from what it used to be. Institutional presence is much higher than it's been in the past and with the volume of money they've invested in the Bitcoin market, I will not be surprised if we end up with a different kind of Q3.

Based on data from spot ETFs, institutional investors’ interest in BTC and other cryptocurrencies is currently at a low point. It is significantly lower than it was last summer, for example. As for volatility, it is precisely institutional investors who can trigger it. For example, at the beginning of the summer, there was a record outflow of funds from spot BTC ETFs, which in turn triggered a sell-off down to $57k.

We can't avoid this; with the recent huge drop in Bitcoin, it made retail and even institutional investors lose some attention to the market, especially with the boom of AI or tech-related companies now.
Even if this has already happened, the good thing I can still appreciate is that we are still above $60,000, which for me is the best thing for now, even if there is no more volume or cash inflow in the market.

[laspol65]

[now the 3rd quarter of 2026 is few weeks ahead, and this discussion as for what bitcoin market chart will look like, checking the above image gives us clear insights to how Q3 record have been since 2013-2025 now entering 2026 and the discussion now is what trend bitcoin is going to take in this round of the Q3?

The Bitcoin market will perform better this year than it did last year in Q3, because at the moment the Bitcoin market is on a fairly bullish trajectory. Because the $60k level has been firmly established, and for the past few months the market has been performing in such a way that any situation that the Bitcoin price is bullish on will stop again.
So this year, the Q3 season will definitely produce a green candle, but if the market situation is more deplorable and the Bitcoin price corrects, then you should take the opportunity to buy Bitcoin.

[EluguHcman]

All I know is that bitcoin will not really increase, but bitcoin will not end Q3 in red. Many different speculations are suggesting also that the end of bear market would be in Q4 as they are mentioning October, but I still think that the price of bitcoin may be boring also in Q4, but which I am not totally sure about but just giving my own opinion about it.

I guess we can assume that the market is boring only when the trends of volatility is not clear of which directions it is moving just as the experience in this Q3 is trending in the range-bound market.

Q4 is quite approaching which I believe there is going to be directional breakout signals in the last round of Q3 but if it does not according to my Speculation, then definitely the Q4 will Kick start with appreciations while the volatility must have already gathered momentum for uptrends. Then the market will appreciate to ease the boredom of investors over the experienced in the Q3.

I won't still be surprised if the Q4 ends red because we are still in the bear were Bitcoin is possible to fall below the bottom price which we think it is the lowest before we head to the bull market.

[As-Soon-As]

Only those who can use the Bitcoin cycle correctly will be successful, and to use this cycle correctly, you must hold Bitcoin for a long time. Only those who hold Bitcoin for a long time will achieve success, and Bitcoin investment has given everyone the freedom to benefit. But those who are afraid to hold Bitcoin investment for a long time are excluded from this success, so its success lies in using the Bitcoin halving cycle correctly and holding it for a long time.

The ending part of this year may not have to come in a bearish direction, we are most likely to see it more bullish, this does not mean the end of the beer market by that time, but to only show the trend and pattern at which the market is going towards by the end of the year, because many will be more profitable with their holdings by that time after they would have bought when the market fall, bitcoin will always render every investor the opportunity and equal right to making profit, once they come up with the strategy that best defined their intention over Bitcoin.

Holding Bitcoin should be done at the right time, because Bitcoin halving cycle increases in size. This has been proven for a long time, so buying Bitcoin using the right strategy is the best plan. Because the opportunity you are getting to buy Bitcoin now, you may not get this opportunity in the future.
So buying Bitcoin is most important.

[pooya87]

If things don't change then we may see the accumulation phase that we are currently in end and the next phase which is the bull run to begin. But the problem is that both inflation and recession are getting worse and with economic hardship we always see bitcoin's rallies slow down or even stop. So third quarter's situation depends on whether the global economy is going to get better or worse.

[adultcrypto]

I don't want to be pessimistic about bitcoin but I don't see signs of anything changing this quarters.  As we entered this quarters, bitcoin rose over $65k signalling positive sentiment though it was not clear what the trigger for such excitement in the market was. Consequently, we have seen the unwillingness of the market to continue followed by sharp retracement in hundreds of pips. My guess is that the market will continue to bounce between $60k to $65 until the end of this quarters, if there will be significant shift in momentum,  that should be expected in Q4.