What do you mean by a 4 years cycle?

[Faisal2202]

That's why I said from the get go, the cycle is anchored around the halving. That mechanism triggers a reaction in investors that influences the demand and supply curve of Bitcoin, and since the mechanism is periodically within a specific time frame, the supply and demand curve happens in the same way in a cycle-like manner.

I know what hypothesis and theory are, but I won't relate them to this because, brother, I know halving is the main catalyst here. I invest according to the halving. Like right now, we are in a bear market. As a matter of fact, the 2024 halving started the bull run earlier, but that's just some delays, which can happen, as the market is not completely obeying the halving timings. It has to follow the current demand and supply. Like ETFs were the biggest hype before the 2024 halving, that's why Bitcoin made an all time high before the halving, but previously it never made an ATH before the halving event. It always made it after.

So things can change, or be early, or can be delayed. It all matters on the current demand and why the demand has increased or decreased.

We always need a catalyst, and halving is one of them. We always need another as well, especially for the bear market.

[Hamza2424]

It is worth noting that the market is affected by a lot of different things which is why sometimes the 4-year cycle trend doesn't look like working. For example like the past 4-5 years, basically ever since the COVID pandemic that destroyed global economy and brought recession with it. Recession prevented the cycle from completing and getting big like previous times otherwise price would have been $400k right now after having dropped from a much higher level...

Do you really think, if the pandemic had not happened, BTC's price would have touched $400k? To be honest, I don't think it could have, because due to the pandemic, many people came to the freelancing world and started hearing about BTC, and it became a choice for many people because they came to know about it, so they must have invested as well once their financial situation got better! It had good impact on the economy in the long run but maybe bitcoin's target new all time high of 2024 would have been better if there would be no pandemic or wars.

Halving doesn't technically create scarcity, and when we talk about mining and block reward we are talking about new supply being created and injected into circulation. To put simply the supply is actually rising.
To clarify: what creates "decreased supply" is not the total supply that is decreasing, it is the coins that are being sold on the market by the miners that is decreasing by 50%. That decreasing supply alongside the rising demand (adoption is growing) helps the price rise in that 4-year cycle.

P.S. Isn't the correct term "deflationary" instead of "disinflationary" for Bitcoin?

Haha yep, the correct term is deflationary. Probably English is not his first language. Anyway, you have made it extra clear what is actually happening, how halving itself could be bad if the adoption is decreasing, because in alts we fear new token supply, but in BTC we don't fear it because we have this mindset that the demand is increasing, and whatever the new supply is going to be, it will be a good thing as demand is increasing, and on the other hand, supply is reduced than before.