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After the FUD or those bad news fades, maybe we will see Bitcoin again prepare for possible much bigger trend.
So, do you believe the news is the driving force behind the trends?
That's why I said from the get go, the cycle is anchored around the halving. That mechanism triggers a reaction in investors that influences the demand and supply curve of Bitcoin, and since the mechanism is periodically within a specific time frame, the supply and demand curve happens in the same way in a cycle-like manner.
I know what hypothesis and theory are, but I won't relate them to this because, brother, I know halving is the main catalyst here. I invest according to the halving. Like right now, we are in a bear market. As a matter of fact, the 2024 halving started the bull run earlier, but that's just some delays, which can happen, as the market is not completely obeying the halving timings. It has to follow the current demand and supply. Like ETFs were the biggest hype before the 2024 halving, that's why Bitcoin made an all time high before the halving, but previously it never made an ATH before the halving event. It always made it after.
So things can change, or be early, or can be delayed. It all matters on the current demand and why the demand has increased or decreased.
We always need a catalyst, and halving is one of them. We always need another as well, especially for the bear market.
Yeah that's true. The adoption rate of Bitcoin expanded significantly during the ETF period. The ETF is not just a hype, it is a form of adoption. I used to think it is somewhat unfavorable to the network as a whole due to how centralized it is, but it actually brought Bitcoin to new heights in terms of adoption.
~snip
Halving doesn't technically create scarcity, and when we talk about mining and block reward we are talking about new supply being created and injected into circulation. To put simply the supply is actually rising.
To clarify: what creates "decreased supply" is not the total supply that is decreasing, it is the coins that are being sold on the market by the miners that is decreasing by 50%. That decreasing supply alongside the rising demand (adoption is growing) helps the price rise in that 4-year cycle.
P.S. Isn't the correct term "deflationary" instead of "disinflationary" for Bitcoin?
Haha yep, the correct term is deflationary. Probably English is not his first language. Anyway, you have made it extra clear what is actually happening, how halving itself could be bad if the adoption is decreasing, because in alts we fear new token supply, but in BTC we don't fear it because we have this mindset that the demand is increasing, and whatever the new supply is going to be, it will be a good thing as demand is increasing, and on the other hand, supply is reduced than before.
No, that's not the correct term, it is disinflationary. I later clarified on what it means, lemme quote it for you:
Deflationary in supply means that the total circulating supply is shrinking (like tokens are burned or something). At the end of the day, the 21M coins won't be what is actively circulated after it is completely mined.
Disinflationary is when the inflation of an asset is being controlled by cutting the rate in which new coins are issued or supplied (just as we have with halving).
You're right though, English isn't my native tongue, but I can speak, write, and understand English very well (although not perfect in it).
If adoption is decreasing, that will certainly be bad if at the same time demand is decreasing. Even if the rate of demand is decreasing but not less than the decrease in supply rate (disinflation), then the price won't go down.
There is no way halving can be bad. Let's say demand rate is decreasing, the halving won't save the price but it will somewhat support the rate of inflation hereby reducing the rate in which the price falls - this is called disinflation.
