Prediction Markets Predict Events. What Happens When the Market Predicts Itself?

[Hamziqqq]

Prediction Markets Predict Events. What Happens When the Market Predicts Itself?

Most prediction markets ask you to predict external events — Bitcoin prices, elections, sports, etc.

But what if you were predicting the crowd itself?

I built a crypto-based game called Majority Mind around this idea.

How it works:

• Every round has a simple Yes / No question.
• Players choose a side.
• Votes stay hidden until the round ends.
• A round lasts around 2 minutes.

The twist: The minority side wins.

For example:

YES — 65%
NO — 35%

NO wins.

So you're not really trying to predict the “correct” answer.

You're trying to predict what everyone else will choose — and position yourself against the majority.

That's where the game theory gets interesting. Once everyone starts trying to be contrarian, predicting the minority becomes much harder.

Deposits and withdrawals are crypto-based.


And more importantly:

How would you try to predict which side becomes the minority?

MajorityMind.com

[Russlenat]

Wow, thats a pretty unique idea, but the question is, will gamblers actually buy into it?

For me its a bit confusing and even slightly misleading, because the idea is that when your prediction is wrong, you win. Since the game looks simple, some people might naturally think that predicting correctly is the way to win.

So Im still not fully sold on the concept. How do you think this will really get the attention of bettors and make them understand the game right away?

[Charles-Tim]

Scam

Avoid this scammer.

Wow! You have graduated your scam service to another level. Not just crypto scam recovery anymore, but you are stepping into how you can scam with something related to betting. This is very good of you.

People already know that you are here to scam. So I will not bother do more investigation from an obvious scam like this.

Go to reputation board to appeal the negative trust that I gave you.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

As an idea, I don’t think it’s a bad one, and the website is decent – better than your presentation here, which could do with some improvement. The thing is, I feel this is the final twist in the tale for prediction markets. Personally, I’m not sure if it’s because of my age, but the sheer number of betting options on almost everything – and on more and more things – overwhelms me.

Well, after typing this, I see what Charles-Tim has written, so I don't recommend anyone to use your site. What surprises me is that he was the only one at the time to leave you a red tag, which means you’re going to get a second one from me.

[Tungbulu]

Personally, I like the idea, because it has much more fewer options, precisely 2, which makes it way more easier to make a choice. The concept is great but the place I’m having a problem is the face behind the idea, actually what I see is someone behind a mask, and no one trusts a masked man. I’m yet to take a look at the site though, but someone above had already commented the site is clean. I would’ve loved to give it a try if this was coming a more reputable member and not some account that just came out from nowhere, and judging by the feedbacks… it’s a No for me.

[Zwei]

beside this being somewhat of an obvious scam coming from an already tagged scammer, not to mention the website being fully vibe coded.
this might be one of the stupidest ways anyone can gamble.



the platform fee is 10-20%, which is crazy. it's basically robbery.

and unlike normal prediction markets, which are based on public events or future outcomes that are hard to rig, there is no way to make this fair when the questions you are gambling on are like these:

"Should bosses be allowed to monitor their employees' Slack messages and internet activity during work hours?"
"Is it rude to bring your own snacks to a movie theater?"
"when you haven't even started getting ready yet?"
"If you smell weed coming from your college-aged neighbor's apartment, do you mind your own business or mention it to the landlord?"

OP can just rig the votes for his "friends" to win, that's if he doesn't just scam you outright. i would stay away from this site.

[Hispo]

It is something different. There is no question about it, it is so simple even the most basic person within the world of gambling and betting would understand how it works.
Though, I am concerned this kind of concept could be easily cheated in order for a selected group of participants to get all our money.
There is no third party source of confirmation in order for us to know whether we were right or not.

I would be very careful before getting money on this platform, since OP already has some negative feedback on his profile and being accused of being a scammer... That is definitely a red flag to keep in mind.

[Questat]

Wow, thats a pretty unique idea, but the question is, will gamblers actually buy into it?

For me its a bit confusing and even slightly misleading, because the idea is that when your prediction is wrong, you win. Since the game looks simple, some people might naturally think that predicting correctly is the way to win.

So Im still not fully sold on the concept. How do you think this will really get the attention of bettors and make them understand the game right away?

I would agree on you, the idea is unique, yet the concept might be misleading. Most of the predictors might totally believe that since they are making right predictions, the chances to win is high, while those who aren't sure of their predictions, they will end up as the real winners.

You know I love the idea, but I don't think majority does too. Because for most of the prediction sites, what hits the right prediction will come out winning while those who have wrong predictions, they will lose in the game.  But this is quite challenging too as they can't tell which one's the minority nor the majority until the game ends.

[un_rank]

If there's something I will take away from this, it is that we do need more independent thinkers here on the forum cause this idea is not unique, it is just an overcomplicated way to do nothing and risk money entirely on luck and a possibly manipulated system while not having any fun at it.

Beyond the obvious scam percentage of 10-20%, you're expected to be a minimum of $20 per round.

- Jay -

[Hispo]

If there's something I will take away from this, it is that we do need more independent thinkers here on the forum cause this idea is not unique, it is just an overcomplicated way to do nothing and risk money entirely on luck and a possibly manipulated system while not having any fun at it.

Beyond the obvious scam percentage of 10-20%, you're expected to be a minimum of $20 per round.

- Jay -

I mean... On Kalshi bettors are able to bet on flights and their possible cancellation, if you keep that in mind, people betting on something like this is bot as far-fetched as some people assume.

The only problems are the unfair percentage of fees for participating in this market, also the fact something like this could be manipulated if enough people get involved or if someone managed to use bots to spam votes.

The idea is okey, but it is neither correctly executed nor explained by OP.

[Alphakilo]

If there's something I will take away from this, it is that we do need more independent thinkers here on the forum cause this idea is not unique, it is just an overcomplicated way to do nothing and risk money entirely on luck and a possibly manipulated system while not having any fun at it.

Beyond the obvious scam percentage of 10-20%, you're expected to be a minimum of $20 per round.

- Jay -

I mean... On Kalshi bettors are able to bet on flights and their possible cancellation, if you keep that in mind, people betting on something like this is bot as far-fetched as some people assume.

The only problems are the unfair percentage of fees for participating in this market, also the fact something like this could be manipulated if enough people get involved or if someone managed to use bots to spam votes.

The idea is okey, but it is neither correctly executed nor explained by OP.

I understand the point you are making and that isn't far-fetched from such an idea by Op being nothing more than just a classic minority game.
If more attention could be given to ensure that votes and balances are completely obscure from anyone before committing their funds and there's uniformity in stake size and limits, then this might just work to be a balanced pure vote counting game instead of the other way around.

[Hispo]

If there's something I will take away from this, it is that we do need more independent thinkers here on the forum cause this idea is not unique, it is just an overcomplicated way to do nothing and risk money entirely on luck and a possibly manipulated system while not having any fun at it.

Beyond the obvious scam percentage of 10-20%, you're expected to be a minimum of $20 per round.

- Jay -

I mean... On Kalshi bettors are able to bet on flights and their possible cancellation, if you keep that in mind, people betting on something like this is bot as far-fetched as some people assume.

The only problems are the unfair percentage of fees for participating in this market, also the fact something like this could be manipulated if enough people get involved or if someone managed to use bots to spam votes.

The idea is okey, but it is neither correctly executed nor explained by OP.

I understand the point you are making and that isn't far-fetched from such an idea by Op being nothing more than just a classic minority game.
If more attention could be given to ensure that votes and balances are completely obscure from anyone before committing their funds and there's uniformity in stake size and limits, then this might just work to be a balanced pure vote counting game instead of the other way around.

It could still be abused, though...
Haven't you heard about bit farms? Those are farms of thousands of cellphones and computers located in Asia, which are used to simulate engagement and traffick on some social media, like Twitter or Instagram.
Those bot farms could easily see this OP platform and work together to massively vote for a single option, securing a win for them.

If this idea is pushed forward, there needs to be a way to prevent people from using multiple devices from the same location. Which is difficult, considering how there are some many tools which hides ones location on the internet.

[IjawMan]

Is a wonderful idea and I'm going to tell why the idea is wonderful. The idea is built to richly favour the group behind the platform while gamblers could actually lose even they were to win.

This what I mean. I check the sharing formula for the winners and it states that the total pool is shared proportionally, but before that, a 10-20 percentage fees from the total pool will go to the platform, as platform fees.

Assuming it is a $1,000 total pool, 10% is $100 and 20% is 200. How much amount is each winner of the prediction going to get if you have let say 500 participants on the minority side that won sharing whatever that is left after a platform fee is removed. Do the maths yourself.

Gamblers take the risk, the platform takes the lion share.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

Wow, thats a pretty unique idea, but the question is, will gamblers actually buy into it?

For me its a bit confusing and even slightly misleading, because the idea is that when your prediction is wrong, you win. Since the game looks simple, some people might naturally think that predicting correctly is the way to win.

So Im still not fully sold on the concept. How do you think this will really get the attention of bettors and make them understand the game right away?

I would agree on you, the idea is unique, yet the concept might be misleading. Most of the predictors might totally believe that since they are making right predictions, the chances to win is high, while those who aren't sure of their predictions, they will end up as the real winners.

You know I love the idea, but I don't think majority does too. Because for most of the prediction sites, what hits the right prediction will come out winning while those who have wrong predictions, they will lose in the game.  But this is quite challenging too as they can't tell which one's the minority nor the majority until the game ends.

What are you lot up to? In a thread that isn’t even a full page long, do you just read the OP and jump straight into commenting? Don’t you read any of the comments from forum members? This bloke’s a scammer, and as Zwei says, even if it were legitimate, the fees are a rip-off.

Whilst you’re at it, why not make a deposit and have a go on the OP’s site, then come back and tell us all about your experience?

[Hamziqqq]

Thanks for the replies — including the blunt ones. Let me correct two factual errors, concede one fair criticism, and then answer the objection that actually matters.


1. The fee is 12%, fixed. Not 10–20%.

the platform fee is 10-20%, which is crazy

If a range is displayed anywhere on the site or in the docs, that is my error in the copy and I am correcting it.

More importantly:

Gamblers take the risk, the platform takes the lion share

This assumes the fee comes off the total pool and that winners then split what is left. That is not how it works, and I should have explained it clearly in the OP.

The fee applies only to the losing pool. Winners get their own stake back, plus a proportional share of the losing pool after the fee.

Worked example — YES pool $650, NO pool $350. NO is the minority, so NO wins:

• Losing pool: $650
• Platform fee: 12% of $650 = $78
• Distributed to winners: $572
• A player who staked $35 (10% of the NO pool) receives $35 back + $57.20 = $92.20

So the effective take on total volume in that round is 7.8%, not 10–20% of everyone's money. Winners do not pay out of their own stake. If anyone finds a round where the payout does not match that formula, post it here and I will refund it publicly.


2. Russlenat and Questat are right that my framing was bad.

Calling it a prediction market was the wrong word, and it created exactly the confusion they described. There is no correct answer to be right or wrong about. It is a minority game — the same structure as the El Farol Bar problem. You are not predicting an external fact; you are predicting crowd behaviour.

I am rewriting the landing copy, because if experienced people here read it as "you win by being wrong," new users will too.


3. The manipulation objection — Zwei, Hispo and Alphakilo.

This is the real one, and "trust me" is not an answer to it, so I won't try.

Zwei is correct that unlike a market settling on a public event, here the settlement data is generated inside my own system. Hispo is correct that there is currently no third-party source you can check the result against. Those are accurate criticisms of the platform as it stands today.

So the only thing worth offering is verifiability, not reassurance:

• Commit–reveal on votes. Each vote is submitted as a hash of (choice + nonce) and revealed only at round close. Nobody — including me — can read the tally while the round is open, so there is no window in which I could position against it.
• Public round log. Full per-round data published to a read-only endpoint after settlement: every pseudonymous wallet, its stake, its side, the tally, the fee taken, and every payout. Anyone can recompute the result independently.
• Operator wallets excluded and published. The fee wallet address goes public so its inflows can be checked against the published round logs.
• Per-round stake caps. Alphakilo's point. A cap on any single wallet's share of the pool is the correct defence and I am implementing it.

4. On the bot farms — Hispo, I am not going to pretend this is solved.

A coordinated group controlling enough of the round volume can force which side ends up in the minority. That is a structural property of any minority game with open entry, not something I can wave away. Per-round stake caps and per-wallet limits raise the cost of that attack; they do not eliminate it. Anyone considering playing should factor that in.


5. On the trust flag.

My earlier service was blockchain development, not scam recovery. I understand that saying so in this thread is worth nothing, so I am not going to argue it here — I am taking it to the Reputation board, which is the right place for it.

Until that is resolved and the verifiability work above is shipped and independently checkable, I would not expect anyone here to deposit, and I am not asking anyone to.

I posted for the game theory discussion and I got much better criticism than I expected. I will come back when the round log endpoint is live, so people can audit rounds without risking anything.

[Agbe]

but the question is, will gamblers actually buy into it?

I don't think I have commented in any of his threads and from what I am seeing in his profile status and this thread plus the website, things are not okay here. It looks like attempting to gain profit in all means. When a website is full with literature than the main purpose of the website then it becomes suspicious.  I think it is better to steer clear from the Op until things loo reality but for now. Things are far from reality.

[Hamziqqq]

Fair enough on the copy  I'll trim it. The depth is there for people who want the reasoning behind the mechanic, but you're right that it shouldn't sit in front of the product. The game itself isn't complex at all: two buttons, a child could play it.Winning is the hard part, not understanding it.On profit  yes, obviously. Servers, payment processing and development all cost money, and I left a job to build this. I'dbe lying if I said otherwise, and I don't think anyone here would do it differently in my position. The question isn't
whether I want to earn from it, it's whether the terms are honest. That's what the 12% and the audit log are for.Fair position to hold, though. Watch it rather than deposit
that's the right call from where you're standing. Come back and
try it when the round log is live, then tell me what's wrong
with it. I'd rather have that feedback than agreement.

[noorman0]

If one simply has to guess the collective psychology of all the bettors, questions requiring a yes/no answer are actually useless here. The focus shifts entirely to the number of people guessing "yes" or "no," rather than the content of the questions themselves. It is essentially a flip game, just with a different underlying concept.

[Russlenat]

What are you lot up to? In a thread that isn’t even a full page long, do you just read the OP and jump straight into commenting? Don’t you read any of the comments from forum members? This bloke’s a scammer, and as Zwei says, even if it were legitimate, the fees are a rip-off.

Whilst you’re at it, why not make a deposit and have a go on the OP’s site, then come back and tell us all about your experience?

I was actually the first one to reply, and at that time I clearly didnt know he was a scammer. I was just commenting on the concept because I thought he was serious about it. Like I said before, the idea itself could already be misleading. But now that I see the red tag on his account, I guess its not even worth giving him more ideas anymore.

[Karl_3000]

I was actually the first one to reply, and at that time I clearly didnt know he was a scammer. I was just commenting on the concept because I thought he was serious about it. Like I said before, the idea itself could already be misleading. But now that I see the red tag on his account, I guess its not even worth giving him more ideas anymore.

Mistake can happen but it will be good to be checking the left side of people's posts to know if they are tagged before. There was an old red tag on the users profile which can easily let others on the marketplace boards like gambling discussion know that he has tried to do something like scam in the past.