legiteum
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World's fastest digital currency
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August 17, 2026, 03:50:09 PM Last edit: August 17, 2026, 06:02:45 PM by legiteum |
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For the last 80 years in the USA, we have changed industrial policy to try to curb our key global rivals like China and Russia. Although we haven't been consistent with China, the US has always traded with them a lot less than they would other nations that are not a military threat. Lately, the US is investing very heavily and making very significant policy (viz. the TikTok situation) in order to secure our economy from a dangerous enemy.
Why bring this up?
BECAUSE THAT IS WHAT ALL OTHER NATIONS ARE GOING TO START DOING TO THE USA.
When every nation on Earth has to take into account that the US president might start an incredibly stupid war somewhere, and if they don't join him in the madness, they will find their own nation under attack either economically or militarily, then it's absolutely imperative that the country disconnects all dependencies from that country. It may cost them a lot, but they have no choice.
What Trump is saying to other countries right now is, in essence, "send your young men to die in my wars or I will economically and militarily ATTACK you".
This is hurting the USA right now, but it's going to get a LOT worse as the rest of the world changes the entire ways they do business. The reason American tech is dominant across the world is because every nation can safely use our products. Now that this situation has changed, our GDP will fall. The only question is how much.
There are three scenarios, all hinging on the upcoming US election cycles in November and in 2028:
Scenario 1: The Republicans are "slaughtered" and the US rejects them like the Germans rejected the Nazi party in 1946. In this scenario, we can recover our reputation and limit the damage.
Scenario 2: The Republicans are defeated, but only by a typical small margin, and they remain a viable party that may take power again. In this scenario, we would see a small reduction in damage, but the strategic direction will stay the same.
Scenario 3: The Republican narrowly win, democratically or otherwise. In this scenario, the rest of the world is assured that the US will be a malign nation for now on, using its military and other means of dominance (i.e. products) to extort economic and political concessions. Then the damage goes from bad to much, much worse.
The US cannot pay its debt obligations if it economically is isolated like China and Russia are. And the bond markets are going to figure this out long before the actual numbers start rolling in. That will jack up interest rates here, and could very well cause a death spiral of the US not being able to make its interest payments (to be clear, in our previous economic scenario before Trump, paying off our debt was perfectly manageable because our growth prospects were so incredibly strong).
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