There is no debate, but then there is always some haha. As I think we should use a linear behavior. I am not saying yours is not, but saying universally, we just give our opinion and think the other one's answer is wrong. Like, I know what he will debate if he even replies back.
My debate would be, you mentioned 65 incidents, and almost 30 out of these fully recovered the funds for the users, so users of 30 incidents did not face huge losses. The 19 went bankrupt and never repaid their users, and 12 repaid partially. The numbers can vary, but still, the exchanges usually have a higher recovery chance, especially if we are using a good one that has good authority and high liquidity. Like tier 1 or tier 2, maybe.
But the recovery is at a multiple level expense.
First of all. If you did not have a Know Your Customer process on the platform yet, I imagine in many cases you will have to file it to claim your Bitcoin back. Then you have to wait with your Bitcoin stuck in the wallet of an attacker, only hoping that maybe you will get that back one day again. Which means lost opportunities, if you are an active Bitcoin user. And then you will have to trust that the same platform you just were a victim of will not repeat the same behavior with no repayment the next time.
I would say the recovery chance is actually low. If it is about the same chance as flipping a coin, I would not feel safe at ALL having my Bitcoin over there.
But with self custodial wallets, recovery is not an option. Although, there are practices we can use to enhance the safety of our funds, but still, people always go for convenience, even if their data will be breached, like the broker in Israel lost 25k people's data or maybe more. There are several other incidents like this. People lose their data to hackers and then become victims of wrench attacks.
With self custody, recovery is not even necessary if you did all steps properly. People going for convenience is their fault, not the fault of Bitcoin. We all have a choice! It is convenient to never lock your front door or car, but people still do it. Most of them any way.
The information to properly store your Bitcoin is all over the Internet. It is easy as HELL to get to that information and because of that, in my opinion it is pretty much the fault of the owner every single time. But I stand on my point, recovery is not necessary. If some body really thinks they need a Third Party recovery option, Bitcoin is definitely not for them.