The Bitcoin Knowledge Paradox.

[aNot!FicaT!on]

The more we know about Bitcoin, the better investors we will become?

The general answer is yes. Because more knowledge means more understanding, and more understanding means better decisions.

Suppose a new investor doesn’t know much about Bitcoin. He only knows what Bitcoin is, how to buy it, how to keep it safe, and why he wants to hold Bitcoin in the long term. He also knows that he doesn’t know anything for sure about Bitcoin’s future.

But on the other hand, another investor has been researching Bitcoin for many years. He knows Bitcoin’s technology, system, algorithm, market cycle, on-chain data, liquidity, mining, market psychology, and much more.

So, would the second investor be more confident about Bitcoin’s future than the first investor? And would he somehow be 80% sure that Bitcoin will bring him profits in the future after years of research?

Yes, I believe that knowing a lot about Bitcoin and knowing the future of Bitcoin are two completely different things. And as far as I know, no one can predict the future of Bitcoin with certainty.
But I have seen that there are many people who are experts on a topic, then they make predictions about that topic very confidently. For example, we see in many YouTube videos where many people talk about crypto investment, they have been involved with crypto for a long time, so their predictions are very effective, and they also show a lot of evidence of this.

So is it the same in the case of Bitcoin? Can someone who has been involved with Bitcoin for a long time and has studied Bitcoin very deeply, somehow make an 80% sure prediction?

[IceLincoln]

The more we know about Bitcoin, the better investors we will become?

The general answer is yes. Because more knowledge means more understanding, and more understanding means better decisions.

Suppose a new investor doesn’t know much about Bitcoin. He only knows what Bitcoin is, how to buy it, how to keep it safe, and why he wants to hold Bitcoin in the long term. He also knows that he doesn’t know anything for sure about Bitcoin’s future.

But on the other hand, another investor has been researching Bitcoin for many years. He knows Bitcoin’s technology, system, algorithm, market cycle, on-chain data, liquidity, mining, market psychology, and much more.

So, would the second investor be more confident about Bitcoin’s future than the first investor? And would he somehow be 80% sure that Bitcoin will bring him profits in the future after years of research?

Having knowledge sure beats not having it or knowing little, you can’t be in bitcoin and wouldn’t want to know more. Your knowledge of bitcoin increases your confidence, trust and betters your strategy.
I’ll like to advise that quest for knowledge shouldn’t keep you on the sidelines. It’s better you’re investing and then growing your knowledge.

Yes, I believe that knowing a lot about Bitcoin and knowing the future of Bitcoin are two completely different things. And as far as I know, no one can predict the future of Bitcoin with certainty.
But I have seen that there are many people who are experts on a topic, then they make predictions about that topic very confidently. For example, we see in many YouTube videos where many people talk about crypto investment, they have been involved with crypto for a long time, so their predictions are very effective, and they also show a lot of evidence of this.

Good you know there’s no certainty in predicting the future!. You should be careful in following the advice or words so called experts on YouTube and other social media platforms. Most of those guys who show those receipts if correct predictions are actually scammers.

So is it the same in the case of Bitcoin? Can someone who has been involved with Bitcoin for a long time and has studied Bitcoin very deeply, somehow make an 80% sure prediction?

There’s a vey low chance of predicting price of bitcoin in the short term, an expert bitcoin trader may have a better understanding of market trends and the probabilities but that doesn’t mean they can predict the price with 80% certainty. My guy e nodey possible. U no even need to compare modalities of cryptos to bitcoin.
It is very risky to be trading bitcoin, it’s better to buy and hold for a long term.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

we see in many YouTube videos where many people talk about crypto investment, they have been involved with crypto for a long time, so their predictions are very effective, and they also show a lot of evidence of this.

There are so many videos on YouTube that talks about crypto investment but only a few are a successful from what they are telling the viewers while a lot of them are only doing it for the views and monetizing of their channel, if you observe some of the videos very well, you will see that it's a cut and join videos, they could be explaining something while the profit they shows was not actually made by them. So you should know, there are many misleading video about crypto investment and you have to filter out the good ones from the noise, else you could be convinced to buy a shitcoin since some YouTubers are even paid to promote some shitcoins, they do that very well without warning people about the risk and they will show false evidence of profit that some newbies can not overlook without feeling tempted to buy the coin.

[Tongley]

Yes you can say that, but I think the same is true for someone who is able to hold it for the long term. No one can ever predict Bitcoin and probably never will. But we have seen from the past that someone who has been able to hold it for the long term has benefited from Bitcoin so far. As you said, if a person follows this path, then his tendency to sell before the end of his Bitcoin holding period is much less. Because he will be aware of all the risks and he will be prepared for every danger in advance.

But someone who does not gain knowledge about Bitcoin, but enters the market with the mentality of holding it for the long term, there are many risks and may be forced to sell his holdings due to his mistakes. Knowledge is definitely important

[ZeroVinsonN]

I don't think you will see anyone arguing that having knowledge is a negative thing, and when it comes to bitcoin investment the knowledge you can gather can help improve your investment life, it doesn't make it possible for you to be able to predict the future of bitcoin (most of those YouTube guys are scammers or fakes trying to get views) but with knowledge you can be able to better protect your asset and that on its own is a big plus that someone without the knowledge will not have.

Most problems with this kind of things usually comes from the importance people attach to these knowledge, are they important? Yes, can you invest in bitcoin without knowing all about them? Very much so, should you decide to put your investment on hold until your quest for knowledge is satisfied? Absolutely not.
Knowledge is power, but if you are not acting then you are wasting time, what's the point in having knowledge about bitcoin if you are not going to do anything with it.

[Donk1]

Well in most cases we can assume that as time goes on, the newbie will reach a certain level that he or she would personally understand Bitcoin in their own terms and analogy. Still not all newbies are ready to go down the path of studying Bitcoin consistently at their level. Basically the chances of success in Bitcoin investment as a newbie cannot be certain until you have gained discipline through experience. That said, the second investor or the experienced investor will have higher chances of success but no one can certainly tell how the future of Bitcoin would be. Even if you can predict Bitcoin price action at a rate of 80%, you still can't be sure Bitcoin will go as you predicted. Still I believe the experienced user will have a higher chance than the newbie because they understand not only the asset, but its sentiments. That's all.......

[Inior]

Suppose a new investor doesn’t know much about Bitcoin. He only knows what Bitcoin is, how to buy it, how to keep it safe, and why he wants to hold Bitcoin in the long term. He also knows that he doesn’t know anything for sure about Bitcoin’s future.

But on the other hand, another investor has been researching Bitcoin for many years. He knows Bitcoin’s technology, system, algorithm, market cycle, on-chain data, liquidity, mining, market psychology, and much more.

So, would the second investor be more confident about Bitcoin’s future than the first investor? And would he somehow be 80% sure that Bitcoin will bring him profits in the future after years of research?

Knowing about something is different from taking action regarding your knowledge. Sometimes some people choke their brains with too much information that they end up becoming indecisive. What any person need to start up Bitcoin investment is knowing that Bitcoin is profitable over time, those other knowledge are irrelevant for your start up decision. After making that decision then, it's important to at least have a basic knowledge of what you are getting yourself into for example Bitcoin circle, how to secure your wallet, how price move…

[EjiukaSpecial]

The difference between both investors is that the second is more experienced which will help him become more confident, however, that doesn't mean that he's be more certain about the future of Bitcoin. Having a good knowledge of the Bitcoin technology, market cycles, on chain data and other fundamentals of Bitcoin gives him the advantage of making informed decisions.

While all of these are valid, it's important to know that Bitcoin does not follow a particular pattern just because we're very familiar with it,  we've seen unexpected events affect the movement of the market.

So I'll say knowledge helps protect you against making bad decisions not that it's gives you certainty in predicting the future.

[Sim_card]

No one can make accurate prediction of what bitcoin price will be in the future. You can only speculate it, and I believe that anyone who has a well grounded technical knowledge on bitcoin also knows that he cannot predict the price correctly. However, those you said do give an accurate price with confidence about a particular coin are liars. Bitcoin has proven a lot of people wrong based on their speculations.

[Itz-prisigold]

In my opinion, having a good knowledge about bitcoin can help an investor to make better decisions, knowledge can likewise help an investor to recognize risks and help them to avoid some kind of mistakes, but knowledge does not give an investor control over the future of Bitcoin.  A person can have all the knowledge and understanding about Bitcoin technology, system, market cycle and so on, but when it comes to Bitcoin future there are still things nobody can predict.

As a matter of fact, I believe that the more someone study more about bitcoin, the more you'll realize that it's very difficult to be certain about things that will happen next. Even right now as am writing this comment I just noticed that bitcoin moved from $64k to $68k just within some few minutes. And I'm very sure all these experienced Bitcoin users did not know Bitcoin will break above $65k at this exact moment.  So when it comes to predicting the future of Bitcoin, being experienced and studying everything about bitcoin still doesn't mean you can foresee what will happen in the next minute.

[Y3shot]

Suppose a new investor doesn’t know much about Bitcoin. He only knows what Bitcoin is, how to buy it, how to keep it safe, and why he wants to hold Bitcoin in the long term. He also knows that he doesn’t know anything for sure about Bitcoin’s future.

But on the other hand, another investor has been researching Bitcoin for many years. He knows Bitcoin’s technology, system, algorithm, market cycle, on-chain data, liquidity, mining, market psychology, and much more.

So, would the second investor be more confident about Bitcoin’s future than the first investor? And would he somehow be 80% sure that Bitcoin will bring him profits in the future after years of research?

The truth is that no knowledge is waste, and every bit of knowledge one has acquired has an advantage to play. In the case of Bitcoin, it's essential to have the basic knowledge of knowing a good wallet for investing and understanding that Bitcoin is a long-term investment.

With this little understanding, it is possible to HODL and invest in Bitcoin, and this is the most important thing. However, having further technical knowledge of Bitcoin is a good advantage as an investor. Even without this technical knowledge, it is still possible for those who only have a basic understanding to invest in Bitcoin. There is nothing difficult about investing in Bitcoin; having the basic knowledge is enough. It's just that people are often too hurried to invest without any knowledge.

[Rockson1]

The truth is that no knowledge is waste, and every bit of knowledge one has acquired has an advantage to play. In the case of Bitcoin, it's essential to have the basic knowledge of knowing a good wallet for investing and understanding that Bitcoin is a long-term investment.

With this little understanding, it is possible to HODL and invest in Bitcoin, and this is the most important thing. However, having further technical knowledge of Bitcoin is a good advantage as an investor. Even without this technical knowledge, it is still possible for those who only have a basic understanding to invest in Bitcoin. There is nothing difficult about investing in Bitcoin; having the basic knowledge is enough. It's just that people are often too hurried to invest without any knowledge.

Of course knowledge is profitable, it might not be immediately, but in time coming, that's why at every opportunity we have to acquire knowledge, we should not take it for granted.
Bitcoin investment requires knowledge but the preliminary stage, it has to be basic, once you have the knowledge of what your discreationary income is, then you are good to invest, other knowledge can be acquired as you keep investing, I agree that technical knowledge is an added advantage according to you but all of that has to come in place when you have stated investing, except one choose that part, which I do not think is possible.

[Cryptomultiplier]

The more we know about Bitcoin, the better investors we will become?

The general answer is yes. Because more knowledge means more understanding, and more understanding means better decisions.

Suppose a new investor doesn’t know much about Bitcoin. He only knows what Bitcoin is, how to buy it, how to keep it safe, and why he wants to hold Bitcoin in the long term. He also knows that he doesn’t know anything for sure about Bitcoin’s future.

But on the other hand, another investor has been researching Bitcoin for many years. He knows Bitcoin’s technology, system, algorithm, market cycle, on-chain data, liquidity, mining, market psychology, and much more.

So, would the second investor be more confident about Bitcoin’s future than the first investor? And would he somehow be 80% sure that Bitcoin will bring him profits in the future after years of research?

Yes, I believe that knowing a lot about Bitcoin and knowing the future of Bitcoin are two completely different things. And as far as I know, no one can predict the future of Bitcoin with certainty.
But I have seen that there are many people who are experts on a topic, then they make predictions about that topic very confidently. For example, we see in many YouTube videos where many people talk about crypto investment, they have been involved with crypto for a long time, so their predictions are very effective, and they also show a lot of evidence of this.

So is it the same in the case of Bitcoin? Can someone who has been involved with Bitcoin for a long time and has studied Bitcoin very deeply, somehow make an 80% sure prediction?

The investor who is brave enough to jump into Bitcoin because he believes it is a profitable investment for long term has better chances of being more successful at making the best returns and surviving the Bitcoin market of the future than the one who knows so much about it, has done so much research about it, yet has not invested a dime or is busy reading market signals instead of doing exactly what the first investor is doing, of which is investing despite the current market sentiment at any time.

About making 80% correct predictions, am sure we can agree that the experience speaks volumes and I would believe the first investor with average knowledge but has results , than the second investor with so much knowledge but without evidential investment results.

[Son Of Blockchain (SOB)]

 Let me start with letting you know that it's important to have a good understanding about Bitcoin but someone shouldn't wait till they fully understand it before the person starts buying. If there's funds avaliable to buy then the person can go ahead to buy then get more knowledge through the investment journey.
 Back to your question, you're already stated that the future of Bitcoin is unpredictable which is accurate so it means that no one can give an accurate prediction of it no matter how long the person has been into it, every prediction that came out accurately is based on Speculations and not that the speculator was very sure of it.

[Felicity_Tide]

~snip

So is it the same in the case of Bitcoin? Can someone who has been involved with Bitcoin for a long time and has studied Bitcoin very deeply, somehow make an 80% sure prediction?

We often use speculation, rather than predictions because patterns and normal analysis, are not longer enough factors to determine an actual future price. So, "80% sure prediction" is more of a speculation because I strongly believe that it's always based on future uncertainty.

But I think, regardless of where any investor falls between the two examples you gave, the confidence of making profits from a bitcoin investment should be build in and not based solely analysis. It's not like all Investors are actually good at reading charts or identifying patterns. Bitcoin's track record is more than enough to boost their confidence in expecting better future prices and profits.