Bitcoin is at high risk of collapse but few understand why

[Vod]

This section has endless threads about where the bitcoin price will go.  Such strategies discussed may have worked for some time at some times, but the reality of the global condition cannot be ignored.

Everyone knows bitcoin is in competition with AI but everyone seems to assume there is more than enough power for both.   AI will keep expanding because we can't allow China to just take over - which is what will happen if American AI companies do not keep growing and using more power.  Hover dam is about to go dark, drying rivers in Europe are forcing nuclear plants offline, and increased desalination use will destroy our coastlines just as our food staples collapse.   If the US government can't keep the power on to large cities like Phoenix, they are not going to be diverting power for mining bitcoin.   I figure the energy use will prioritize as:   water, military, AI, civilian/farming, industrial production then any extra can go towards bitcoin generation.

So before you go doing any prediction of the price based on historical signals, remember the new reality of energy.

[philipma1957]

Lots of sun due to global warming so tons of solar  will come online.

[pooya87]

You are forgetting one very important fact: bitcoin is global not local.
What happened when China banned bitcoin mining? Absolutely nothing. Bitcoin didn't collapse. The hashrate simply migrated elsewhere, to places where the "problem" didn't exist. That's because bitcoin does not belong to nor is it controlled by this country or that bloc.

If you think the world is just US and EU, then you need to get out more. The world is massive and the situation is widely different in different jurisdictions. For example the water crisis Europe is facing is not global and it is not because there is less rain, but it is because the clouds are raining elsewhere to put simply. The global climate mess caused by pollution and global warming is changing patterns not eliminating rain; like with El Niño and the North Atlantic Oscillation the rains have increased massively in West Asia. In fact many of our dams are now overflowing this year.

So no Bitcoin is not at any serious risk of collapse if for example the US regime banned bitcoin mining (just like it wasn't when the Chinese did it). The only risk is for countries they're gonna migrate to since it would disrupt their power grid significantly. And I'm afraid if they actually start imposing restrictions, we here are going to face another power crisis just like when we did when Chinese banned it and miners started migrating. After all that's the consequence of having dirt-cheap energy ($0.001 to $0.002 per KWH for home users, $0.03 per gallon of gasoline LOL).

[BlackHatCoiner]

In addition to pooya87, Bitcoin cannot collapse because of hashrate decline, except if the hashrate decline is so massive (95-99%) that attacking it becomes economically feasible.

The difficulty adjustment is in place for exactly adjusting the coin generation according to the mining market, ensuring that the price is not affected from changes in the capital invested to protect the network.

[Alvin_talk]

Maybe your argument will be valid assuming mining of bitcoin will eventually be restricted across the globe which is not likely gonna happen. I see many possible locations miners can divert to if mining is restricted in US and EU at large. They can as well move to countries like Ethiopia due to its surplus inexpensive hydroelectric power and possibly United Arab Emirates.

The very first mistake in your hypothesis is assuming mining is only possible in the US, if you reason beyond this perspective, then you will understand bitcoin will not collapse anytime soon.

The only possibility I see if bitcoin mining is restricted in US is that their will probably be a sharp decline in the price of bitcoin due to market panic, but overtime, the network will mathematically recover and return to stability, just like what happened when China banned bitcoin mining.

[OgNasty]

Lots of sun due to global warming so tons of solar  will come online.

You’re right. People are starting to talk about Dyson Spheres and realizing we have a massive free reactor in the sky that is more than capable of powering Earth and an expanding civilization. We are entering a period of calamity for sure as value and currencies are reevaluated, but the future is bright and energy is abundant.

[Vod]

Lots of sun due to global warming so tons of solar  will come online.

You’re right. People are starting to talk about Dyson Spheres and realizing we have a massive free reactor in the sky that is more than capable of powering Earth and an expanding civilization. We are entering a period of calamity for sure as value and currencies are reevaluated,

People have been talking about Dyson swarms for decades now, but it's not technologically possible.  Everyone starts to learn about the fusion furnace starting at ages 3-4.   

but the future is bright and energy is abundant.

Just like your pool will be full next summer, right?  If energy is abundant, why would you be leaving your home?   That's like my saying I hate the cold but moving to the Yukon.  I am looking for intelligent conversation, not dreams that physics will bend to anyone's greatness.

[Bit-Mj1014]

Bitcoin's collapse those not depend on one country it's a global asset, as we all know, apart from that, there are so many other ways to produce energy... There is always an alternative, Bitcoin is too valuable to collapse.

[Vod]

Bitcoin's collapse those not depend on one country it's a global asset, as we all know, apart from that, there are so many other ways to produce energy... There is always an alternative, Bitcoin is too valuable to collapse.

I mentioned the international energy crisis and the reason bitcoin will not get new energy in my OP. 

As for your final statement - what would happen if bitcoin died today?   The mega rich corrupt will lose the most, but everyone else will see an instant reduction in energy rates.  The collapse of bitcoin will not harm humanity, and it might give states that relied on Hoover power a chance to survive.

[pawel7777]

In addition to pooya87, Bitcoin cannot collapse because of hashrate decline, except if the hashrate decline is so massive (95-99%) that attacking it becomes economically feasible.

The difficulty adjustment is in place for exactly adjusting the coin generation according to the mining market, ensuring that the price is not affected from changes in the capital invested to protect the network.

Why does the drop have to be as massive as 95-99% to become a threat?
If it drops by a little over 50% this means somewhere there is equipment able to produce >50% hashpower that can be used to attack the network. Assuming the owner(s) of that idle equipment act only according to their financial interest, they could either rent it out cheaply to the attacker or even attack the network themselves.

On a side note, I'm not even sure if 51% attack would be illegal. I guess it would depend on the jurisdiction. But if my memory serves me right, I think one of the Bitcoin devs (Luke Dash Jr?) was openly attacking SHA-256 altcoins in the early days and I don't think there was any concern about the legality of that.

[philipma1957]

Any one think vod is the new proudhon?

Maybe.

[pooya87]

Any one think vod is the new proudhon?

Maybe.

This board has seen so many crazy users, most of the times they are fun though like my favorite kwukduck

But it's too soon to categorize OP. It's natural to see people react like this in face of crisis and US has been hit with the climate change crisis (water crisis, energy crisis, food crisis) harder than most places and sometimes reading all these articles online make people think it is doomsday and then extrapolate that into Bitcoin as well.

If I were OP I'd worry more about food than bitcoin. The drought and the Hoover dam he keeps mentioning, or more specifically the Colorado River which 40 million people in 7 states depend on, is seeing a lower and lower water level. And this situation is largely affecting the West and Southwest which means farmers will face more problems coming up with enough yield to stay afloat.
Their yields are already being affected by both increased price of energy and fertilizers as well as the shortage of it. You see the US regime's aggression in West Asia significantly disrupted flow of a lot of things. Most people only think about oil or maybe gas but a lot of more important things stopped being exported. Things such as ammonia and urea (a third of global export) which has created a global fertilizer crisis. The situation was not as bad this year since in spring many of the farmers had already made their purchases but as time goes by and the shortage and high prices are felt, the crisis farmers would face increase.

Farmers will have less yield --> they won't be able to make money --> they shut down and start migrating toward cities --> food shortage causes prices spike --> homelessness grows (jobless farmers who went to cities) --> crimes rise --> food shortage fear begins --> riots start --> Gestapo police is deployed to manage the situation --> things get worse...

Fun fact: did you know Syria fell apart exactly like this? Although their crisis was artificially created by NATO...

[BlackHatCoiner]

Why does the drop have to be as massive as 95-99% to become a threat?

Because last time I measured it, the available hashrate you can rent in total is up to 4% of the total hashrate. Most 51% attacks, if not all, do not happen because the owner of the ASICs decided to attack, but rather because the attacker got access to the infrastructure, usually via renting the ASICs.

If the hashrate dropped by 50%, it'd still be incredibly expensive for the attacker to rent all available hashrate, and it'd still not be enough for 51% attacks. Also, if the hashrate dropped by 50%, we can assume that a large portion of the available hashrate to rent would decline as well.

[justdimin]

Maybe your argument will be valid assuming mining of bitcoin will eventually be restricted across the globe which is not likely gonna happen. I see many possible locations miners can divert to if mining is restricted in US and EU at large. They can as well move to countries like Ethiopia due to its surplus inexpensive hydroelectric power and possibly United Arab Emirates.

The very first mistake in your hypothesis is assuming mining is only possible in the US, if you reason beyond this perspective, then you will understand bitcoin will not collapse anytime soon.

The only possibility I see if bitcoin mining is restricted in US is that their will probably be a sharp decline in the price of bitcoin due to market panic, but overtime, the network will mathematically recover and return to stability, just like what happened when China banned bitcoin mining.

The regulations usually just force you to have as much output as your input. Meaning that, if you want to have a mining operation, they ask you to build some energy generation stuff, like solar or wind. Most of the time, these companies obviously build it right on their own property, because why not? You both generate it and use it, and that makes the most sense.

However, if they prefer, sometimes they are given the chance to build it somewhere else as well. This is why it makes sense for them to sometimes partner with other companies as well. After all, just because you want to start a mining operation and you may understand that doesn't mean you will understand the energy business as well. So you pay up, but others build and run it for you, and you give them some cut from it, and that way you are going to get a free electricity bill- well, not free; you pay up beforehand an upfront payment, but the cost of running it would be less than your electricity bill at least.

[Ambatman]

There's nothing restricting miners to a particular location
They can venture to where energy Is relatively cheaper.
Difficulty adjustment can come in
The only time there would be an issue is if energy scarcity is world wide.

If it drops by a little over 50% this means somewhere there is equipment able to produce >50% hashpower that can be used to attack the network. Assuming the owner(s) of that idle equipment act only according to their financial interest, they could either rent it out cheaply to the attacker or even attack the network themselves.

If they act according to their financial interest they would prefer honest mining than support an attack.
That's the beauty
They have to compare the cost and the potential impact it would have on the coin.
At best perform a double spend on a coin that may likely crash as a result of the hack.

And rather than keeping their setup idle they could venture into AI.

[Vod]

And rather than keeping their setup idle they could venture into AI.

Are the ASICs (Application Specific) used for mining bitcoin even able to process AI?   

[Ambatman]

And rather than keeping their setup idle they could venture into AI.

Are the ASICs (Application Specific) used for mining bitcoin even able to process AI?   

Nope
That's why I said setup
What I meant was the access to energy they already have.
They both turn electricity into computation
One via GPUs and the other via ASICs.
Not to mention cooling system and capital
I'm sure it would take some level of capital to even gain something from mining.

[uchegod-21]

Op, i understand your concerns, I still wonder why you did not think of the fact that miners could relocate if electricity becomes a problem to them, or is relocation also impossible? We will be concluding that Bitcoin is at high rusks of collapse only if the challenge of energy consumption is global that miners cannot fit in no matter where they relocate to. There is no need for panics, the problem of electricity has a solution.