Bitcoin’s Security After the Block Subsidy: Who Will Pay for the Network?

[pooya87]

The majority of people who want to avoid talking about it are the people who FEAR that their viewpoint that fees alone will secure Bitcoin, and they say it like it's already a fact.

Fees alone won't be enough if the capacity remains the same as I've already pointed out in the comment you quoted. But it is still too soon to talk about it because we cannot predict what the situation is going to be by that time. And that time is at least a couple of halvings ahead which is at least a decade from now. Considering we can't even predict what will happen a week from now, we definitely cannot predict what will happen a decade from now.

[SquirrelJulietGarden]

Fees alone won't be enough if the capacity remains the same as I've already pointed out in the comment you quoted. But it is still too soon to talk about it because we cannot predict what the situation is going to be by that time. And that time is at least a couple of halvings ahead which is at least a decade from now. Considering we can't even predict what will happen a week from now, we definitely cannot predict what will happen a decade from now.

If price growth won't be able to maintain its efffects on Bitcoin mining revenue for Bitcoin miners, significant halves of Bitcoin block subsidy after future halvings and cycles will considerably decreasen miners' revenue from mining.

Their revenue will be only maintained if Bitcoin price doubles after each halving with another assumption that a second source of miner revenue - transaction fees - won't increase a lot after each of future Bitcoin block subsidy halvings.

People are fearful because of that very possible future while the assumption that Bitcoin transaction fees for Bitcoin miners will increase, and not only increase, but rise considerably in future cycles, is still very uncertain, if not like it's kind of unrealistic.

[Wind_FURY]

The majority of people who want to avoid talking about it are the people who FEAR that their viewpoint that fees alone will secure Bitcoin, and they say it like it's already a fact.

Fees alone won't be enough if the capacity remains the same as I've already pointed out in the comment you quoted. But it is still too soon to talk about it because we cannot predict what the situation is going to be by that time. And that time is at least a couple of halvings ahead which is at least a decade from now. Considering we can't even predict what will happen a week from now, we definitely cannot predict what will happen a decade from now.

Because why? Because it would depend on what price-point Bitcoin will be, or depend on the amount of usage it will have?

It's laughable to think like that instead of thinking about it from an independent, sustainable protocol-incentive viewpoint.

  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

It's neither too early, nor too late to discuss/debate such matters. But everyone should know that it's merely for informational awareness, and to learn/understand Bitcoin more.

[Gragebox]

The majority of people who want to avoid talking about it are the people who FEAR that their viewpoint that fees alone will secure Bitcoin, and they say it like it's already a fact.

Fees alone won't be enough if the capacity remains the same as I've already pointed out in the comment you quoted. But it is still too soon to talk about it because we cannot predict what the situation is going to be by that time. And that time is at least a couple of halvings ahead which is at least a decade from now. Considering we can't even predict what will happen a week from now, we definitely cannot predict what will happen a decade from now.

However, there's no guarantee that alone will be able to pick up the slack if network capacity and transaction demand don't improve relative to falling block rewards. And really, it's hard to make a solid prediction regarding Bitcoin's fee market this far down the road anyway. We are at least half a decade away until this is even really a concern, and the network might very well be different by then.

Changes to scalability, Layer 2 development, increased adoption, shifting transaction behavior or new technology are all factors which could impact fee markets.

Even today, I am hesitant to predict what Bitcoin will look like in 5 years, let alone 10 a bit too speculative for my taste. Instead, I suspect the best strategy is to observe adoption and development trends.

[BlackBoss_]

However, there's no guarantee that alone will be able to pick up the slack if network capacity and transaction demand don't improve relative to falling block rewards. And really, it's hard to make a solid prediction regarding Bitcoin's fee market this far down the road anyway. We are at least half a decade away until this is even really a concern, and the network might very well be different by then.

Changes to scalability, Layer 2 development, increased adoption, shifting transaction behavior or new technology are all factors which could impact fee markets.

Even today, I am hesitant to predict what Bitcoin will look like in 5 years, let alone 10 a bit too speculative for my taste. Instead, I suspect the best strategy is to observe adoption and development trends.

Layer 1 and Layer 2 are mutually interacting with each other. People only have need of using layer 2, side chains, if transaction fees on layer 1 are expensive. If transaction fees on layer 1 are cheap enough, there will be less need of using layer 2.

Bitcoin is higher quality than Ethereum but I think using Ethereum and ETH layer 2 projects as an example is good enough. Layer 2 projects on Ethereum were very hot some years ago but when ETH layer 1 became cheaper in transaction fees, hypes on Layer 2 disappeared and many layer 2 projects on that chain have faced with very bad future.

They raised $B funds, developed their projects but if layer 1 is too good and cheap enough, layer 2 projects will naturally fail in selection of users.

[2stout]

As with all things consumed or used, typically the cost falls on the consumer or user.  Once the block subsidy is done, none else than the consumer or user will pick up the cost.  Lightning network could reduce fees as a layer 2 but Layer 1 would still need underpinned and supported from a security standpoint.  The fee structuring could get interesting, but hopefully nothing drastic happens like changing from PoW to PoS.

[nelson4lov]

I asked this question last year and based on the responses I got then, I stopped worrying about it because I think when we get to that bridge, we will cross it. We already have miners that are pivoting to AI (which is a burst as they will come back when AI bubble bursts anyway). Imo, when bitcoin gets adopted by banks, government agencies and top financial institutions, they would be the one to provide the infrastructure to keep it going because at that point, solo miners will have nothing to produce block unless the fees/revenue will be enough to cover the cost.

I try not to think about this enough for the same reason why I don't think about quantum computing and how it affects bitcoin right now (it doesn't).