US debt tops 40 trillion is the end near?

[Curious T]

Whether you believe it or not, confidence in USD has been eroding for a long time. This isnt something new. US Treasuries are no longer the world's primary reserve asset, and USD's dominance in international trade has declined in recent years.

The dollar is still the dominant reserve currency with close to 60 percent, followed by the Euro at 20 percent. The prices and values of these things don't remain constant, the fluctuate. Just like how sometimes Bitcoin has 60 percent dominance in the market and sometime it drops to 58 percent. The US is still the most used currency in trades. The drop in usage is not significant enough to say there is a loss of confidence in the dollar

Nobody is celebrating the decline of USD. But whether you admit it or not, if you hold USD, your purchasing power will almost certainly decline over time. By contrast, your purchasing power could increase significantly if you hold Bitcoin.

What are you saying? Every single fiat loses value after a while. Is there any fiat currency that doesn't lose value? So why are you talking like only the dollar loses value after a while? So many other currencies lose more value than the dollar.

I don't know why you're comparing the dollar with Bitcoin. I never said that anywhere. We're not arguing Bitcoin vs dollar. We're discussing fiat. If there are people who are rejecting the dollar, it's because of political reasons and not economic reasons.

[STT]

DXY or dollar index is a political measure of the dollar standard or global reserve currency system.  The problem is the reality is different and a rigid system will fracture and break, that's the danger of recession we face from the failure.  In the DXY the Euro is about 60% of the dollar index, because its massive and contains many wealthy countries.  

Alot of the worlds largest countries even the most productive are not wealthy as such and the people still lack a good level of income and savings.   Theres much irony in the current system which is why many expect it to fracture and fail, USA if you include the standing debt is the poorest nation on earth.
  This makes no sense as via debt USA is most often considered the richest country.   The obvious implication is the debt is not repaid in actual correct value, there is a soft default ongoing causing poverty to many and great wealth to a few.

  The worlds largest country is one of the poorest due to a constant state of war and heavy military use dominating any  private free enterprise.  The next largest countries with the two largest populations arent exactly a perfect case either with government dominating and capitalism discouraged or subverted.  So US debt is some great problem but in contrast its more understandable why it has continued for so long incorrectly.

[philipma1957]

DXY or dollar index is a political measure of the dollar standard or global reserve currency system.  The problem is the reality is different and a rigid system will fracture and break, that's the danger of recession we face from the failure.  In the DXY the Euro is about 60% of the dollar index, because its massive and contains many wealthy countries.  

Alot of the worlds largest countries even the most productive are not wealthy as such and the people still lack a good level of income and savings.   Theres much irony in the current system which is why many expect it to fracture and fail, USA if you include the standing debt is the poorest nation on earth.
  This makes no sense as via debt USA is most often considered the richest country.   The obvious implication is the debt is not repaid in actual correct value, there is a soft default ongoing causing poverty to many and great wealth to a few.

  The worlds largest country is one of the poorest due to a constant state of war and heavy military use dominating any  private free enterprise.  The next largest countries with the two largest populations arent exactly a perfect case either with government dominating and capitalism discouraged or subverted.  So US debt is some great problem but in contrast its more understandable why it has continued for so long incorrectly.

As of now  every  usa citizen owes 121,000 dollars.

My wife and I could pay this and survive. [No kids]

But most people in the usa can not pay that.

And 10 percent can pay it easy peasy.

I estimate 60 percent of the people In the usa can't pay it.

10 percent could

And 30 percent are iffy.

By pay it I mean exactly that cash in your ira or savings and zero out the 121k.

The usa problem is a few people have more than half of the money.

Top 1.5 million have 55% of  the wealth.

The other 328.5 million people share 45% of the wealth

 

[pooya87]

Ever since this historical record was broken (or basically as soon as it was in sight and the news came out) bitcoin has been rallying. It is already 12% up and has touched $70k and the momentum seems to be getting stronger for the time being.

Fiat failure == Bitcoin success

The number isn't that important imo. Does it matter whether it is 40 trillion or 140 trillion as long as it stays same for a decade? The problem is the acceleration rate of the debt. It is getting bigger and bigger and it is happening very fast. Bitcoin indeed looks like a safer bet compared to FIAT since it has limited supply and lots of demand. FIAT is sought after too but the central banks are printing more than the actual demand and we don't have problem with bitcoin.

It does matter since $40 trillion is a little more than the GDP, $140 trillion would be waaaaay above the GDP. But you are right about the rate. It is signaling a serious problem.

Another very serious issue which is overlooked is where the money is being spent.
You see, governments in other countries are also printing money, increasing their debt, etc. But they do it to cover their costs and the money is usually spent domestically to pay salaries, build infrastructure, fund development and various domestic projects for education/health care/energy/..., etc.
But in the US the money is being spent on waging wars against the rest of the world. Americans are paying for it but they are not benefiting from it! It only benefits the arms dealers and generally the Epstein Class.

[free-bit.co.in]

The dollar is still the dominant reserve currency with close to 60 percent, followed by the Euro at 20 percent. The prices and values of these things don't remain constant, the fluctuate. Just like how sometimes Bitcoin has 60 percent dominance in the market and sometime it drops to 58 percent. The US is still the most used currency in trades. The drop in usage is not significant enough to say there is a loss of confidence in the dollar

The USD's share of global foreign exchange reserves has fallen to around 56%, down from 70% before.

The USD is still the most widely used currency in international trade, but as you have acknowledged, its share is declining. While the decline isn't enough to say the USD has lost its dominance, it does show that countries are gradually reducing their dependence on it, and that confidence in it isn't as strong as it used to be.

https://www.fxstreet.com/amp/news/imf-us-dollar-share-of-global-fx-reserves-in-q4-2020-hits-lowest-in-25-years-202104010308

What are you saying? Every single fiat loses value after a while. Is there any fiat currency that doesn't lose value? So why are you talking like only the dollar loses value after a while? So many other currencies lose more value than the dollar.

I don't know why you're comparing the dollar with Bitcoin. I never said that anywhere. We're not arguing Bitcoin vs dollar. We're discussing fiat. If there are people who are rejecting the dollar, it's because of political reasons and not economic reasons.

Maybe I am wrong, but as I understand it, this thread is about when the USD will collapse and Bitcoin will take over, as the OP mentioned. I do not think comparing the USD with other currencies is really relevant to the point being discussed here.

[philipma1957]

The dollar is still the dominant reserve currency with close to 60 percent, followed by the Euro at 20 percent. The prices and values of these things don't remain constant, the fluctuate. Just like how sometimes Bitcoin has 60 percent dominance in the market and sometime it drops to 58 percent. The US is still the most used currency in trades. The drop in usage is not significant enough to say there is a loss of confidence in the dollar

The USD's share of global foreign exchange reserves has fallen to around 56%, down from 70% before.

The USD is still the most widely used currency in international trade, but as you have acknowledged, its share is declining. While the decline isn't enough to say the USD has lost its dominance, it does show that countries are gradually reducing their dependence on it, and that confidence in it isn't as strong as it used to be.

https://www.fxstreet.com/amp/news/imf-us-dollar-share-of-global-fx-reserves-in-q4-2020-hits-lowest-in-25-years-202104010308

What are you saying? Every single fiat loses value after a while. Is there any fiat currency that doesn't lose value? So why are you talking like only the dollar loses value after a while? So many other currencies lose more value than the dollar.

I don't know why you're comparing the dollar with Bitcoin. I never said that anywhere. We're not arguing Bitcoin vs dollar. We're discussing fiat. If there are people who are rejecting the dollar, it's because of political reasons and not economic reasons.

Maybe I am wrong, but as I understand it, this thread is about when the USD will collapse and Bitcoin will take over, as the OP mentioned. I do not think comparing the USD with other currencies is really relevant to the point being discussed here.

well the 40 is soon to be 50 and then the 50 will be 60.

50 trillion by 2029-2030 is pretty much certain

60 trillion by 2033 is also pretty much certain

which will mean 20 trillion over 7 years  I actually think I am conservative here.

so 20/7=2.857 trillion a year.

I think we will do 3 trillion debt a year minimum.

Sooner or later this is going to fail on a spectacular scale. Here's hoping BTC picks the pieces up.

[Curious T]

The dollar is still the dominant reserve currency with close to 60 percent, followed by the Euro at 20 percent. The prices and values of these things don't remain constant, the fluctuate. Just like how sometimes Bitcoin has 60 percent dominance in the market and sometime it drops to 58 percent. The US is still the most used currency in trades. The drop in usage is not significant enough to say there is a loss of confidence in the dollar

The last time the dollar was 70 percent of foreign exchange reserves was in 2000. So using that to measure how it is today does not really tell a clear picture. Bitcoin has 80 percent dominance at one point and then 70, and now it's around 60. This doesn't mean that bitcoin heading in a direction where it would no longer be dominant. I believe with time the foreign exchange reserve will even drop further to around 50 percent and so will bitcoin, but it would always remain the dominant.

Maybe I am wrong, but as I understand it, this thread is about when the USD will collapse and Bitcoin will take over, as the OP mentioned. I do not think comparing the USD with other currencies is really relevant to the point being discussed here.

Because I was replying to something you said, not comparing the dollar to Bitcoin. Of course, Bitcoin is a better currency than the dollar or any other currency. The argument we had, or when you replied to my post, it was not Bitcoin vs the dollar.

well the 40 is soon to be 50 and then the 50 will be 60.

50 trillion by 2029-2030 is pretty much certain

60 trillion by 2033 is also pretty much certain

which will mean 20 trillion over 7 years  I actually think I am conservative here.

so 20/7=2.857 trillion a year.

I think we will do 3 trillion debt a year minimum.

I don't doubt this. Countries' debt will continue rising. This is a fact. The same way inflation will continue rising. But if the dollar will fail, we are still decades away from that happening. I mean centuries away. The dollar doesn't look like a currency that would fail in the next 100 years. A currency doesn't go from the biggest fiat, to irrelevant in a couple of years.