Is this the Bull Run that we have been waiting for?

[Shineup]

A likelihood we will see a transition into the bull run or a continuation of the bear run. It's too early to figure out the market direction due to uncertainty.

However, I'm very optimistic we will be in a bull run soon. Early this morning, I woke up to $82k, like you made mention of, and now it's around $79kish. What's the probability that before this weekend we will start a new rally? Going from $82k to $91k.

This pump in price by Bitcoin is normal, because we can't just be speculating every time their is a pump that the bull run is about to kick off. I think that the market has been down for a long time now, so this short term pump is long overdue, that's why I don't believe that the bull season is about to kick off, and most especially, we are not close to the next halving that would have all indications that the bull season is around the corner, so even though it go as high as $93k I wouldn't be too sure of anything until it goes above $110,000k from now until January next year.

Not being close to the next halving can never be a perfect justification why anyone wouldn't believe that the bull season is about to kick off, we can experience a bull season at anytime whether we are close to the next halving or not, don't forget how unpredictable the market can be and perhaps no history are guaranteed of repeating itself, now it doesn't matter what we believe to be an indication or not, we can only be compel to concede the reality of the market, let's keep watching.

[Finebone]

Not being close to the next halving can never be a perfect justification why anyone wouldn't believe that the bull season is about to kick off, we can experience a bull season at anytime whether we are close to the next halving or not, don't forget how unpredictable the market can be and perhaps no history are guaranteed of repeating itself, now it doesn't matter what we believe to be an indication or not, we can only be compel to concede the reality of the market, let's keep watching.

Look at the historical price movement of Bitcoin, you will see that it move in patterns, and history keeps on repeating itself, that's why investors always believes that the bull season comes after or before the halving. You are right when you said that nothing is impossible, and history may not repeat itself as expected due to the uncertainty of the market, but until then we can never be certain that the bull season has kicked off until it's confirmed.

[CryptoBuds]

Not being close to the next halving can never be a perfect justification why anyone wouldn't believe that the bull season is about to kick off, we can experience a bull season at anytime whether we are close to the next halving or not, don't forget how unpredictable the market can be and perhaps no history are guaranteed of repeating itself, now it doesn't matter what we believe to be an indication or not, we can only be compel to concede the reality of the market, let's keep watching.

Look at the historical price movement of Bitcoin, you will see that it move in patterns, and history keeps on repeating itself, that's why investors always believes that the bull season comes after or before the halving. You are right when you said that nothing is impossible, and history may not repeat itself as expected due to the uncertainty of the market, but until then we can never be certain that the bull season has kicked off until it's confirmed.

I agree with you that we can't just speculate every time there's a pump that the bull run is about to kick off. I also don't believe this is the bull run we are waiting for.

However, there's no guarantee the cycle will always repeat itself. History can give us some reference, but it isn't a fixed formula. So we shouldn't assume the market has to follow exactly what happened in the past and ignore other scenario.

The market has changed to some extent, and the halving isn't the only catalyst for a bull market. So we should look at price action, money flows, and current market conditions instead of relying only on history.
Don't rule out any scenario and let the market show us the answer.

[citywise2]

The main reason the bearish market seems to persist can be traced to a number of traders wanting to take profit every pip the Bitcoin chart makes but not really intending the market to be bearish, so for so long as many people ate inclined to profit taking, the bearish market will remain strong. That said, it would take a very compelling news to put the bulls over the bears and such news are not found now, so this rally cannot be the bullish run we all pray for. 

[alastantiger]

Look at the historical price movement of Bitcoin, you will see that it move in patterns, and history keeps on repeating itself, that's why investors always believes that the bull season comes after or before the halving. You are right when you said that nothing is impossible, and history may not repeat itself as expected due to the uncertainty of the market, but until then we can never be certain that the bull season has kicked off until it's confirmed.

The market is not looking like it is heading towards a bull market hence we can all ignore what we earlier thought was happening. If we were in a bull market then it should have been obvious already but that is not how the market is looking. It is even looking like the market is struggling to hold strong as any small mistake everything will come crashing down.

Our hopes were too up that the bear market was over and we are getting into the bull market but that was false hope. The bull market is going to come after Bitcoin halving is over as it always does hence we have to go back and wait. The sudden pump was just the market bouncing back from being too down as it has been for many months back lets just hope now that we do not dump aggressively aging.

[kawetsriyanto]

The main reason the bearish market seems to persist can be traced to a number of traders wanting to take profit every pip the Bitcoin chart makes but not really intending the market to be bearish, so for so long as many people ate inclined to profit taking, the bearish market will remain strong. That said, it would take a very compelling news to put the bulls over the bears and such news are not found now, so this rally cannot be the bullish run we all pray for. 

How to trace the traders who want to take profits?
I assume both in bearish and bullish season, traders will always try to secure profits as quick as possible if they see significant rise in the prices. Since we are talking traders, they aren't the people who hold for a long time. So, I don't think traders' activity to have a very big influence in determining the market trend (bullish/bearish).

Anyway. Sure, any big news related to crypto is needed to move the market. We have seen many times that some big news from US government to influence the market trend in a short time. It is the power of news, it can bring an impact instantly.

[#CapsLOck]

It's not just a strong 7-day move that will make it a new bull run. I would be more focused on the post breakout portion. That would be a much better confirmation if BTC were to break the prior resistance, and begin to make higher highs and higher lows on the daily or weekly chart. Also to watch is volume, as a volume breakout with an increase in spot volume is more indicative of a breakout than is a sharp move that is primarily based on derivatives and short liquidation volume. To me the next pullback is more significant than the current green candle.

[Leahized]

This time was the beginning of the bull run but not the planned expectation. For this, ATH is needed. But we are seeing it fluctuating between 77k and 79k. However, this sideways market will be stronger later. Which can definitely reach up to 100k. But it is still not 100% effective for the bull run.

Currently, it is positioned within a specific range. It is not possible to say how long this will last. However, observing the chart, it seems that it may be unable to reach ATH before 2027. Which we are expecting.

[aoluain]

Look at the historical price movement of Bitcoin, you will see that it move in patterns, and history keeps on repeating itself, that's why investors always believes that the bull season comes after or before the halving. You are right when you said that nothing is impossible, and history may not repeat itself as expected due to the uncertainty of the market, but until then we can never be certain that the bull season has kicked off until it's confirmed.

The market is not looking like it is heading towards a bull market hence we can all ignore what we earlier thought was happening. If we were in a bull market then it should have been obvious already but that is not how the market is looking. It is even looking like the market is struggling to hold strong as any small mistake everything will come crashing down.

Our hopes were too up that the bear market was over and we are getting into the bull market but that was false hope. The bull market is going to come after Bitcoin halving is over as it always does hence we have to go back and wait. The sudden pump was just the market bouncing back from being too down as it has been for many months back lets just hope now that we do not dump aggressively aging.

There is/was a massive demand for an end to the Bear market and the beginning of a Bull
market. That has been clear for a number of months already.

Whats happening now in the market is probably the final stage of  "Bart Simpson" which can
be seen in the chart, the market suddenly rises, then moves sideways for a time and then
corrects down forming a shape in the chart like Bart Simpsons head!

And anyway the market never just rises and keeps going, there is always a correction,and this
could be whats happening now.

[Pandorak]

It's not just a strong 7-day move that will make it a new bull run. I would be more focused on the post breakout portion. That would be a much better confirmation if BTC were to break the prior resistance, and begin to make higher highs and higher lows on the daily or weekly chart. Also to watch is volume, as a volume breakout with an increase in spot volume is more indicative of a breakout than is a sharp move that is primarily based on derivatives and short liquidation volume. To me the next pullback is more significant than the current green candle.

Upon closer inspection, the nearest strong support level is currently in the $75–73k range. The price will continue to move sideways until a breakdown occurs, and it will be a nightmare if Bitcoin falls below that level, as it’s possible this could trigger a significant correction, potentially bringing the price back down to the previous resistance level which has now become support at $67k. Of course, this is just a personal assumption based on analysis,  hopefully it won’t come to pass and Bitcoin will rebound to set a new ath by breaking through the current resistance level.

[STT]

Its already breaking down near term, BTC now trading below the weekly average and slipping below 77.k.   I would estimate for March highs as a possible place to find support and trade upwards again, it that occurs BTC is positive gains medium term probably long term just not short term unfortunately.

  If it doesnt lose 76k this week on Sunday, that could mean its just false bluff charge not real weakness, the dollar is mostly weak after all.

[tabas]

The main reason the bearish market seems to persist can be traced to a number of traders wanting to take profit every pip the Bitcoin chart makes but not really intending the market to be bearish, so for so long as many people ate inclined to profit taking, the bearish market will remain strong. That said, it would take a very compelling news to put the bulls over the bears and such news are not found now, so this rally cannot be the bullish run we all pray for.  

They are the retailers including me and you. I don't think that we do have that much influence of how the market goes right now. Based on the cycle, this is a bear market and for it to be reversed will take some time. We've seen that it had moved quickly and everyone thought it's done, maybe it's not yet. And even with some good news coming, there can be some influence into it but it won't push further until we can say that we're finally out of this bear. It's hard to convince myself right now with what is happening although I am almost in the same belief as the others few days ago.

[Popkon6]

Look at the historical price movement of Bitcoin, you will see that it move in patterns, and history keeps on repeating itself, that's why investors always believes that the bull season comes after or before the halving. You are right when you said that nothing is impossible, and history may not repeat itself as expected due to the uncertainty of the market, but until then we can never be certain that the bull season has kicked off until it's confirmed.

The current Bitcoin high that you are seeing is a natural increase in the price of Bitcoin, after a sharp decline in the past, the price of Bitcoin touched $60K. The price of Bitcoin has increased due to increased buying pressure in the Bitcoin market and some other strategies. However, in this natural Bitcoin price increase, we cannot definitely identify it as a Bitcoin bull market. However, the Bitcoin bull run starts according to the halving cycle,
it has been happening in the past, and it will happen in the future, so we must believe in it. And following this belief, I have been holding Bitcoin and plan to hold it for a long time, but I can never call this current high price increase a permanent price increase.

[kawetsriyanto]

This time was the beginning of the bull run but not the planned expectation. For this, ATH is needed. But we are seeing it fluctuating between 77k and 79k. However, this sideways market will be stronger later. Which can definitely reach up to 100k. But it is still not 100% effective for the bull run.

If we consider the previous cycle, we should be still in the bearish season now. However, it is quite surprising that we have a quite significant increase recently. I'm very sure that most people don't expect this, they may assume this will happen in the next year at least. So far, we still can't ensure the market movement in the near future. Sure, it must reach $100k again or even it will cross the ATH again. But this probably takes a long time, it won't happen in the next few weeks.

Currently, it is positioned within a specific range. It is not possible to say how long this will last. However, observing the chart, it seems that it may be unable to reach ATH before 2027. Which we are expecting.

I also think it won't reach the ATH, even it is in 2027. A new ATH probably will be achieved in 2028/2029. Mostly, it is triggered by the momentum of Bitcoin halving. The next Bitcoin halving is expected to happen in 2028.

[coinrifft]

They are the retailers including me and you. I don't think that we do have that much influence of how the market goes right now. Based on the cycle, this is a bear market and for it to be reversed will take some time. We've seen that it had moved quickly and everyone thought it's done, maybe it's not yet. And even with some good news coming, there can be some influence into it but it won't push further until we can say that we're finally out of this bear. It's hard to convince myself right now with what is happening although I am almost in the same belief as the others few days ago.

I believed otherwise, as retailers and even if we are small, if you could band together, we could influence the price, same with institutions. It's that we can see how much money they have and how big their investments are, as compare to us average joe investors.

Nevertheless, it's a ecosystem, everyone here is important as the bigger whales. And we might not understand it, but for sure, we could also be a polarizer in this huge market. Just imagine if thousands of small investors will just buy small amounts in everyday, that could have a huge impact in the market.

[Derekfunds]

They are the retailers including me and you. I don't think that we do have that much influence of how the market goes right now. Based on the cycle, this is a bear market and for it to be reversed will take some time. We've seen that it had moved quickly and everyone thought it's done, maybe it's not yet. And even with some good news coming, there can be some influence into it but it won't push further until we can say that we're finally out of this bear. It's hard to convince myself right now with what is happening although I am almost in the same belief as the others few days ago.

I totally agree with you, we don't have the capacity to cause a change in the market because there are folks who are loading and offloading billions and trillions of dollars in the market which are the whale and they are the ones that have the capacity to change the market and sometimes we are just liquidity. The internal structure of the market can be bullish but in the bigger picture or time frame we are still bearish so we can be out of bearish if the price move above $130k.

[Justbillywitt]

This pump in price by Bitcoin is normal, because we can't just be speculating every time their is a pump that the bull run is about to kick off. I think that the market has been down for a long time now, so this short term pump is long overdue, that's why I don't believe that the bull season is about to kick off, and most especially, we are not close to the next halving that would have all indications that the bull season is around the corner, so even though it go as high as $93k I wouldn't be too sure of anything until it goes above $110,000k from now until January next year.

Not being close to the next halving can never be a perfect justification why anyone wouldn't believe that the bull season is about to kick off, we can experience a bull season at anytime whether we are close to the next halving or not,

For there to be another bull run or season, the halving has to take place. If the previous bull circle has been completed, and it’s been confirmed that we are already in the bear season, which I’m sure that we are, then the halving has to happen for the bull season to return. The gains that are being recorded now are just the ordinary ones that are usually recorded during the bear season. It is common for the market to record some gains in the core bear season. But for the market to break the previous ATH, and set new ones, the halving have to take place. The proper bull season don’t just happen at anytime, it has it’s season when it happens.