Bear market accumulation played out like the simulation of 2022

[sergiorus]

I don't know if anybody paid attention to my reply in the other thread 12 days ago, but it was a brief analysis and comparison of bear market reaccumulation phase in 2022 and 2026.

Here is the quote:

Let's look at some simple data - days spend below the previous all time highs. We will compare the tops of 2018 and 2021 and the values will be respectively $20,000 and $69,000.

In 2022 we had 119 daily candles closed below the ATH of 2018. Right now, in 2026, we are on our way to close 108th candle below $69,000 today.




But the interesting thing is, the bottom is usually set quite early into that accumulation period:

- in 2022 we reached the bottom on the 53th daily closure below the ATH and repeated it on the 65th.
- in 2026, if we assume the bottom is in, it was reached on the 61th daily candle close below the ATH and then repeated on the 67th.

My overall point was to prove that the current bear market is basically just as brutal, as it was in 2022, despite what it might seem at the first glance due to a weaker contraction in % from the ATH.

Anyway, as you see, not only the amount of days it took to reach the bottom (and then repeat it to sweep the liquidity) was almost identical, the amount of daily candles closed below the previous all time highs ended up being almost identical too!

At the time of the post (10th of August) we were on our path to have our 108th daily candle closed below the 2021's all time high mark, whilst in 2022 it took 119 daily candle closures below 2018's all time high mark to end the bear market.

So if we assume the bear market has ended, the last daily closure below the 2021's ATH was on 18th of August and that was 116th daily closure versus 119 in 2022. Fascinating, isn't it? Once again played out like a simulation.

 
And for what it's worth, the numbers could be a little bit different on different exchanges (my analysis was based on Binance's BTCUSDT pair), overall similarity in how the bottom phase played out almost identically deserves to be studied.

[Merit.s]

If I get you right, are you saying that the bear market is over because that's what your post is pointing at. Nobody knows if the bear market is over and that $57k+ is the bottom of the bear market. I doubt it because November was the month that bitcoin price reached the bottom in 2022 at $16k+.

However, it's not a must that the market will play out the same way as it did in the previous circle because past performance isn't a guarantee for the future performance.

[sergiorus]

If I get you right, are you saying that the bear market is over because that's what your post is pointing at. Nobody knows if the bear market is over and that $57k+ is the bottom of the bear market. I doubt it because November was the month that bitcoin price reached the bottom in 2022 at $16k+.

However, it's not a must that the market will play out the same way as it did in the previous circle because past performance isn't a guarantee for the future performance.

The original post was a reply to a claim that the current bear market is not as brutal as the previous ones. I basically proved it's at least as bad as 2022s one was.

My today's post speculates that IF the bear market is over, it basically ended up being a simulation of 2022.

To answer your question: yes I think the bear market is over. We just saw some intense relentless buying, that doesn't happen in bear markets. Maybe in the very beginning, but definitely not in the late stages. That was a powerful signal and I don't believe we haven't ended the bear market with it.

[Karl_3000]

If I get you right, are you saying that the bear market is over because that's what your post is pointing at. Nobody knows if the bear market is over and that $57k+ is the bottom of the bear market. I doubt it because November was the month that bitcoin price reached the bottom in 2022 at $16k+.

We all know how the US Department of the Treasury caused the recent pump, I do not think it is the start of the bull market. I also think that the bear market may last throughout this year. People that want to buy bitcoin can continue to buy bitcoin because it is not too late, there are still enough time.

[Moreno233]

If I get you right, are you saying that the bear market is over because that's what your post is pointing at. Nobody knows if the bear market is over and that $57k+ is the bottom of the bear market. I doubt it because November was the month that bitcoin price reached the bottom in 2022 at $16k+.

However, it's not a must that the market will play out the same way as it did in the previous circle because past performance isn't a guarantee for the future performance.

A lot have changed with Bitcoin so don't expect everything to follow that textbook pattern in terms of timing. So his analysis may be right but timing may differ. That does not mean I'm saying that the bear market is over because I still believe it isn't over yet. But there is a huge sign that price may not raid the $57k low meaning the bottom have already been established based on my perspective.  If the bull run is not going to continue, we will only see some correction before price will continue the upward move.

[Hamza2424]

And for what it's worth, the numbers could be a little bit different on different exchanges (my analysis was based on Binance's BTCUSDT pair), overall similarity in how the bottom phase played out almost identically deserves to be studied.

Bro, you did an amazing job here. No, I did not read your post that you mentioned, but now I did, and I agree with your point because you have made a very unique one. All this time, most of us have only compared the days, but you compared the numbers of candles! But you used daily candles, so you could have used days as well or whatever, but it indicates time candles might have seasoned the whole idea a bit, but the taste is still the same.

But I like the idea though, and I agree that the pattern you found is reasonable, and historically we used to look for patterns like this, and yep, they are supposed to be off by a few days. That's not a wonder to me. What is a wonder to me is that nobody saw this, but even if someone saw this before, they would not be taken seriously. But as of now, it happened and the market recovered already. I believe you.

Great job.

[sergiorus]

And for what it's worth, the numbers could be a little bit different on different exchanges (my analysis was based on Binance's BTCUSDT pair), overall similarity in how the bottom phase played out almost identically deserves to be studied.

Bro, you did an amazing job here. No, I did not read your post that you mentioned, but now I did, and I agree with your point because you have made a very unique one. All this time, most of us have only compared the days, but you compared the numbers of candles! But you used daily candles, so you could have used days as well or whatever, but it indicates time candles might have seasoned the whole idea a bit, but the taste is still the same.

But I like the idea though, and I agree that the pattern you found is reasonable, and historically we used to look for patterns like this, and yep, they are supposed to be off by a few days. That's not a wonder to me. What is a wonder to me is that nobody saw this, but even if someone saw this before, they would not be taken seriously. But as of now, it happened and the market recovered already. I believe you.

Great job.

Thanks for your kind words, I appreciate it.

The idea wasn't invented by me though. It's a well established concept of "time-based capitulation" at the point of maximum possible pain.

Some theory:

Time-based capitulation is a market phase where asset prices move sideways or stagnate for a long time. Instead of a sudden panic drop, investors grow bored and frustrated by the lack of growth and sell their positions, leaving the market to patient, long-term holders.

The point of maximum pain wasn't determined by me either. It's known that many traders and speculative holders enter the market once the price breaks the previous ATH, and that's usually considered "smart" so the point of maximum pain for them (as well as for everyone, who bought even higher) is below the previous ATH.

Time-based capitulation works the best at these levels and many daily candle closures below the ATH cause a lot of frustration and confusion, causing them to exit the asset.

So I simply took two well established theories, ran some numbers and compared the results I got for the two bear markets.

[Alphakilo]

If I get you right, are you saying that the bear market is over because that's what your post is pointing at. Nobody knows if the bear market is over and that $57k+ is the bottom of the bear market. I doubt it because November was the month that bitcoin price reached the bottom in 2022 at $16k+.

However, it's not a must that the market will play out the same way as it did in the previous circle because past performance isn't a guarantee for the future performance.

I like the idea of using candles in this case because it is more like a technical representation of another perspective that showcase the best case probability of structural symmetry than just a show of how current or future price action may turn out to be.
This ain't a signal in anyway but a structural presentation that shows clarity from another angle and it is different from the comparison of price action that tells the exact market season we are facing over this duration.

[shinratensei_]

If I get you right, are you saying that the bear market is over because that's what your post is pointing at. Nobody knows if the bear market is over and that $57k+ is the bottom of the bear market. I doubt it because November was the month that bitcoin price reached the bottom in 2022 at $16k+.

We all know how the US Department of the Treasury caused the recent pump, I do not think it is the start of the bull market. I also think that the bear market may last throughout this year. People that want to buy bitcoin can continue to buy bitcoin because it is not too late, there are still enough time.

Bullmarket comes later, this is a sign of break out, a trend shift, the best time to accumulate if the price going down again, look at 14 january 2023 chart right before the market starting to get better and prepare for another bull, this could very well constitute to that price action due to the nature of the pump which is fast and high. If that's true, imagine how high the new all time high on the next bull will be. Thankfully we don't have blackswan and it gives us significantly higher bearish bottom compared to previous cycle of FTX disaster.

[GreatArkansas]

Old all-time highs are interesting. The bottoms showing up around the same point in both cycles looks a lot alike.
But this time is different, it's more bloody back then, especially when we drop below $20,000 from $60,000. That was the time when a lot of people telling Bitcoin will go to zero, lol.

But I understand you OP, drop from $120,000 to below $60,000 this time from recent all-time high is already bloody too, it has similarity but now, market more matured compared before.

[PostQuantumBTC]

Old all-time highs are interesting. The bottoms showing up around the same point in both cycles looks a lot alike.
But this time is different, it's more bloody back then, especially when we drop below $20,000 from $60,000. That was the time when a lot of people telling Bitcoin will go to zero, lol.

But I understand you OP, drop from $120,000 to below $60,000 this time from recent all-time high is already bloody too, it has similarity but now, market more matured compared before.

If bitcoin fall from $120000 to $60000, it is not bloody at all, it only shows that bitcoin is a store of value if compared to the last cycles and you explained one yourself. Silver fall is just like bitcoin and it is a precious metal that is also a store of value. But what I do not like about the topic is that it might let some people think that the bull market has started and which might not be true.

[Big Dirams]

Old all-time highs are interesting. The bottoms showing up around the same point in both cycles looks a lot alike.
But this time is different, it's more bloody back then, especially when we drop below $20,000 from $60,000. That was the time when a lot of people telling Bitcoin will go to zero, lol.

But I understand you OP, drop from $120,000 to below $60,000 this time from recent all-time high is already bloody too, it has similarity but now, market more matured compared before.

If bitcoin fall from $120000 to $60000, it is not bloody at all, it only shows that bitcoin is a store of value if compared to the last cycles and you explained one yourself. Silver fall is just like bitcoin and it is a precious metal that is also a store of value. But what I do not like about the topic is that it might let some people think that the bull market has started and which might not be true.

Right now it just a little bit confusing that we can’t just admit already that we aren’t in bullish market and we can’t admit that we are in bearish market so there is still more time for us to find out either we are in the bear market or we will be in bullish market soon.
Bitcoin falling from $120k to $60k shouldn’t be something surprising to us at all, bitcoin is a volatile asset and it price fluctuates from one place to another so this kind of volatility shouldn’t make us startled at all. Many smart ones took advantage of this lows while some just stay off the charts and avoid to buy more.

[SamReomo]

To answer your question: yes I think the bear market is over. We just saw some intense relentless buying, that doesn't happen in bear markets. Maybe in the very beginning, but definitely not in the late stages. That was a powerful signal and I don't believe we haven't ended the bear market with it.

I agree with you, I also think that bear market ended this time and we're in the early stages of next bull market. But, if Bitcoin somehow falls below $65k again then we might be proven wrong but as far as I can see the Bitcoin is over $70k and if we see another pump in it and somehow it manages to cross $80k then we might be right about the end of bear market. Currently Bitcoin is over $77k and daily chart seems green that means it might have another pump where it might cross $80k value if things go well and if that happens then chance of entering a bull market will be much higher than returning back to bearish movements. Let's see what will be value of the Bitcoin at end of this month.

[sergiorus]

To answer your question: yes I think the bear market is over. We just saw some intense relentless buying, that doesn't happen in bear markets. Maybe in the very beginning, but definitely not in the late stages. That was a powerful signal and I don't believe we haven't ended the bear market with it.

I agree with you, I also think that bear market ended this time and we're in the early stages of next bull market. But, if Bitcoin somehow falls below $65k again then we might be proven wrong but as far as I can see the Bitcoin is over $70k and if we see another pump in it and somehow it manages to cross $80k then we might be right about the end of bear market. Currently Bitcoin is over $77k and daily chart seems green that means it might have another pump where it might cross $80k value if things go well and if that happens then chance of entering a bull market will be much higher than returning back to bearish movements. Let's see what will be value of the Bitcoin at end of this month.

Falling below $65,000 would, of course, be an invalidation, but I don't believe it will happen.

What will probably happen though, is that Bitcoin will close the weekly candle with the largest USD denominated gain EVER, today, in about 12 hours.

Now that's what one calls a powerful signal.

[Perfectbaby]

If I get you right, are you saying that the bear market is over because that's what your post is pointing at. Nobody knows if the bear market is over and that $57k+ is the bottom of the bear market. I doubt it because November was the month that bitcoin price reached the bottom in 2022 at $16k+.

However, it's not a must that the market will play out the same way as it did in the previous circle because past performance isn't a guarantee for the future performance.

A lot have changed with Bitcoin so don't expect everything to follow that textbook pattern in terms of timing. So his analysis may be right but timing may differ. That does not mean I'm saying that the bear market is over because I still believe it isn't over yet. But there is a huge sign that price may not raid the $57k low meaning the bottom have already been established based on my perspective.  If the bull run is not going to continue, we will only see some correction before price will continue the upward move.

As we know the market is always unpredictable as you could have whatever analysis and predicted that within specific period of time that it would hit specific amount but when it gets to that period things changes so easily without having to end the way you projected while trading. Perhaps I also believed that the bear market is not yet over as this could be a panic from some people out there or maybe, a kind of positive  news that just boosted the market so easily. As we know the price got nearly $78k. There is possibility that the price would touch back 60k before breaking out from 70k to 80k plus, but it may likely happened on Q4 or from the beginning of Q1 comes 2027.

[CryptopreneurBrainboss]

We all know how the US Department of the Treasury caused the recent pump, I do not think it is the start of the bull market. I also think that the bear market may last throughout this year. People that want to buy bitcoin can continue to buy bitcoin because it is not too late, there are still enough time.

For a cycle to end or begin (either bull or bear) something has to trigger the market and it's usually a reaction to the government action now I'm not saying the bear market cycle is over or not but if it is only time will tell and we can't say we are in a bullish scenario until we cross the previous ATH, anything that is happening within this period is just recovery and we can see Bitcoin trading between $70k to $100k. The OP explanation is quite clear but then the market does not repeat it's history exactly so we could be expecting something different this time around. Is there a possible dip in the future, yes it seems like this could happen but until it does there is no certainty but when it does happen it shouldn't come as a suprise.

[arwin100]

We all know how the US Department of the Treasury caused the recent pump, I do not think it is the start of the bull market. I also think that the bear market may last throughout this year. People that want to buy bitcoin can continue to buy bitcoin because it is not too late, there are still enough time.

For a cycle to end or begin (either bull or bear) something has to trigger the market and it's usually a reaction to the government action now I'm not saying the bear market cycle is over or not but if it is only time will tell and we can't say we are in a bullish scenario until we cross the previous ATH, anything that is happening within this period is just recovery and we can see Bitcoin trading between $70k to $100k. The OP explanation is quite clear but then the market does not repeat it's history exactly so we could be expecting something different this time around. Is there a possible dip in the future, yes it seems like this could happen but until it does there is no certainty but when it does happen it shouldn't come as a suprise.

Yeah if it can cross to new ATH then its easy to conclude that we are experiencing a bullish scenario. But people can already guess that we are heading in that situation, if the upper trend is fast and we are close to hit new ATH again.

Price dip is really possible to happen and that's normal phase on the market. But nothing is really certain when it comes on Bitcoin, because any situation could really happen.

This is one big factor on why people should made more realistic approach and don't assume to much, because market is so unpredictable. But as always Bitcoin is here always surprise people that's why I love to hold this coin compare to any other alts out there.

[ZeroVinsonN]

If I get you right, are you saying that the bear market is over because that's what your post is pointing at. Nobody knows if the bear market is over and that $57k+ is the bottom of the bear market. I doubt it because November was the month that bitcoin price reached the bottom in 2022 at $16k+.

We all know how the US Department of the Treasury caused the recent pump, I do not think it is the start of the bull market. I also think that the bear market may last throughout this year. People that want to buy bitcoin can continue to buy bitcoin because it is not too late, there are still enough time.

Bear market or not people can definitely still buy bitcoin if they want to, the advantage might seem to be gone but that's a mindset that people have which I don't support, the price of bitcoin doesn't need to be low before a person can buy, people bought during the last ATH and they are still holding till date and will still be holding till the next ATH.
My advice is that for anyone whose intention is long term, they should buy whenever they can, during a DIP is an added advantage but that shouldn't stop them from buying anytime else if they want to.

[justdimin]

Bear market or not people can definitely still buy bitcoin if they want to, the advantage might seem to be gone but that's a mindset that people have which I don't support, the price of bitcoin doesn't need to be low before a person can buy, people bought during the last ATH and they are still holding till date and will still be holding till the next ATH.
My advice is that for anyone whose intention is long term, they should buy whenever they can, during a DIP is an added advantage but that shouldn't stop them from buying anytime else if they want to.

I would say that "advantage lost" is not the reason; I think it is mainly because people think it will go down again. Not because "it is too late now, we should have bought earlier", but more like this will go down again, so we have time to buy more later on. I am not really guaranteeing anything, but if it is playing out like 2022, then we are going to see the lowest in October, if I remember 2022 correctly, and that means we still have some time, and we are going to make even more money later on by waiting and buying in October.

It may not be exactly in October; maybe we are not going to get there, but as long as we have time, then we could do as well of a job as we could do. I understand this is a risk we are taking, and maybe it is not going to go down, and maybe it is going to go up, and we could make sure that we are not wrong by checking any chart or indicator we want, and we could still be wrong. But this is the type of risk you take if you want to make the most money.

[snowpega]

If I get you right, are you saying that the bear market is over because that's what your post is pointing at. Nobody knows if the bear market is over and that $57k+ is the bottom of the bear market. I doubt it because November was the month that bitcoin price reached the bottom in 2022 at $16k+.

However, it's not a must that the market will play out the same way as it did in the previous circle because past performance isn't a guarantee for the future performance.

It is always impossible to time the bottom or top of the Bitcoin market. Rather than just waiting for them, we should use a DCA strategy for both actions, taking an entry in the market or taking an exit from the market. This way, we can stay on the safe side because we never know when the market is going to show us sudden reverse action. This is why it is always better to get prepared for every kind of moment. And about your saying, I can agree with you at this moment.

Because I personally believe that we are in such a phase of the market which is more manipulated or under-controlled due to large-scale adoption of many companies, institutions, and organization. They altogether have a big influence on the Bitcoin market. And we can not say so surely that the bear run is now over. Rather than this, I personally consider it an accumulation or consolidation phase. Well, this is my personal point of view. DYOR!