My argument on why this might not be the beginning of the bull market

[bbc.reporter]

Yes, we are thankful that the Donald has caused the Trump pump to more than $75k. I am very much happy and excited for this, however, the skeptical me is thinking that this might not he the beginning of the bull market similar to what other people might be declaring.

There are reasons. The speech of the Donald that caused the Trump pump might be an action from the Republicans that they are becoming desperate because there are still very much chances of the popping of the AI bubble that will cause everything to have a big dump occurrence.

There is also very much the chance that the Clarity act will not get passage to the desk of the Donald for signing which might also cause a big dump for the cryptospace including bitcoin.

Also, why is this ratings to increase interest rates on September becoming higher?



Source https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september-762

[Agbamoni]

The bull market is a speculation from many who are anxiously waiting for it to start, but we all know that the market trend is not certain whether we will see a bullish rally or retain our stance in a bear market. I don't want to be too quick to draw conclusions, claiming to be an expert. All I know is that the current market state of Bitcoin will take us by surprise. It's either you're prepared or watch those who got ready enjoy the ride. Regardless of which side it goes, I am comfortable with it. The expectation of profit for me is in 4 years.

[Sim_card]

Since Trump entered office he has been manipulating the price of bitcoin with different news and that's why I don't want to believe that the bull run has started because Trump can still come out tomorrow with a negative news that will affect bitcoin price and make the price dip drastically back to $63k or below. No one can predict the market.

[sergiorus]

I don't think it's Trump's speech what caused the pump. For Hyperliquid particularly - maybe, but overall crypto market was just a dry forest waiting for a spark.

He made a lot of bullish crypto statements in the past 1.5 years, which only caused small pumps and dumps, or simply dumps right away.

What we saw was several days of intense bidding that doesn't happen due to some "speech".

[uneng]

It's a massive pump, indeed, which has been happening since days ago, but we have to take into consideration everything which pumps too fast and suddenly, also dumps on the same proportion... It's too early to claim it's a bullish run considering only one single movement/fluctuation of the market.

Realistically thinking, such news don't have potential to boost Bitcoin in a sustainable way at that point. The most likely hypothesis is that speculators are heavily playing with Bitcoin price right now. Personally, I don't believe in a bull run before 2028.

For me, Bitcoin's history speaks louder than short term massive fluctuations.

[Accardo]

Gold also rallied alongside bitcoin, it's more of a bull season for all hard assets, after Secretary Scott announced a $4billion increase to the bond buyback program from its original $2billion limit. The US government is doing this to bring down the high debt the nation has accumulated. So, investors will have to run back to assets like bitcoin, since bonds are being bought back from them by the government. Seeing bitcoin at $80k is a big rally that could surge further to $90k, I think it's a beginning of the bull run rather than just a mere speech from Trump as you said.

[Donneski]

Somehow I also hold the same opinion with you that we shouldn't be carried away by the recent pump. We've seen similar movement in the market before where the market showed signs of a major breakout but ended up returning to the the bullish trend started.

That said, I think attributing the recent rally to Trump's speech is a little too exaggerating. The changes in liquidity expectations, the dollar and the renewed regulatory push also  contributed to the current sentiment.

If Bitcoin can be able to hold the ground it has recovered and continue attracting real buying after these recent excitements settles, then the argument for a new bull phase will definitely become much stronger.

[EL MOHA]

I don't think it's Trump's speech what caused the pump. For Hyperliquid particularly - maybe, but overall crypto market was just a dry forest waiting for a spark.

He made a lot of bullish crypto statements in the past 1.5 years, which only caused small pumps and dumps, or simply dumps right away.

What we saw was several days of intense bidding that doesn't happen due to some "speech".

I don’t understand why people have actually failed to get that this particular market has been using a whole two months to actually consolidate and we all know that a prolong period of consolidation actually leads to two things which is either the market continue in its trend or it changes trend even if it’s a fake break out and this particular case scenario is exactly that. Bitcoin has been bearish for the majority of the year and was poised to change direction after the long ranging of the market.

Yes we can agree that fundamentals like Trump statement can actually trigger a demand which could increase the price but this particular demand wasn’t driven alone by Trump statement because there were many factors already that were going to cause high demand

[Pandorak]

The current rise is indeed quite surprising, especially for holders, of course, this is good news and hopefully Bitcoin will continue to rise gradually. Let’s hope Donald Trump doesn’t make another statement that could cause Bitcoin price to plummet instantly, as he has done before.

And perhaps we’ll soon see Bitcoin price reach $82k, an important level and if a breakout occurs, there could be a further rise to $90k.

[Oshosondy]

The current rise is indeed quite surprising, especially for holders, of course, this is good news and hopefully Bitcoin will continue to rise gradually. Let’s hope Donald Trump doesn’t make another statement that could cause Bitcoin price to plummet instantly, as he has done before.

There is nothing Trump can do about what will finally happen to bitcoin. When bitcoin wants to get to all time high, bitcoin will get there. Trump can not control the price of bitcoin.

I also think this is not the start of bull run, but maybe it has actually started, I do not know. Bull run do start with bitcoin rising significantly first, then followed by the altcoins, but that is not happening right now as other altcoins are following, but I may be wrong.

[AVE5]

Yes, we are thankful that the Donald has caused the Trump pump to more than $75k. I am very much happy and excited for this, however, the skeptical me is thinking that this might not he the beginning of the bull market similar to what other people might be declaring.

From my point of observation about the ongoing greenlights in the bitcoin market is totally what I can't gamble for because I'm either not going to be confidence with my instincts.
Bullrun as we've always known is usually the market pumping periods that occurs after halving and usually events that reoccurs every 4 year's.
Looking at the traditional angle to define this moments, it's expected that we should still be in the bear market and while we experienced the last bull run just last year 2025, the next bull run as the OP may guess should be expected to come in within 2028-2029.
That's looking through the historical records.
Perhaps we're still too far to see that greenlights that can pump market prices to new Ath. I doubt if that'll occur in this particular bullish event. Maybe this could just be one of the hyping influence.

[jossiel]

This pumped cannot be ignored and that's why everyone is thinking that this might be the end of the bear market.

Just as you op, many are not yet convinced that this isn't the beginning of the bull market and the end of bear. If we believe the 4-year cycle, then this should be a part of it.

Although these pumps while we're in a bear is interestingly changes the output that we're having in the market.

[Upgrade00]

Since Trump entered office he has been manipulating the price of bitcoin with different news and that's why I don't want to believe that the bull run has started because Trump can still come out tomorrow with a negative news that will affect bitcoin price and make the price dip drastically back to $63k or below. No one can predict the market.

No, he hasn't. The crypto community has just for some time payed too much attention to him which gives that impression of influence. In the lead up to the American election there were post after post in relation to the effect the outcome will have in the crypto market. His involvement in memcoins also caused new projects to see mentioning him as a means to trend.

In reality, the price of bitcoin was  influenced by the factors of demand and supply as it has always been and not the actions of Trump.

[bbc.reporter]

Since Trump entered office he has been manipulating the price of bitcoin with different news and that's why I don't want to believe that the bull run has started because Trump can still come out tomorrow with a negative news that will affect bitcoin price and make the price dip drastically back to $63k or below. No one can predict the market.

That is a good argument you have made there. Yes, if the Donald can cause the Trump pump, he can also cause the Trump dump where he will announce that he will bomb Iran again similar to what he has done before.

We can be quite certain that there will be insiders who will buy fuel commodities and fuel stocks again before the announcement of war hehehehe.

[Smack That Ace]

I don't think it's Trump's speech what caused the pump. For Hyperliquid particularly - maybe, but overall crypto market was just a dry forest waiting for a spark.

He made a lot of bullish crypto statements in the past 1.5 years, which only caused small pumps and dumps, or simply dumps right away.

What we saw was several days of intense bidding that doesn't happen due to some "speech".

I also don't think Trump's statements are what caused this strong rally. He's just been repeating that same old statement since he took office. They are mostly just empty promises, and the market is already tired of them.

At the same time, gold and stock market have also been going up. That makes me even more convinced that Bitcoin's rise had nothing to do with Trump's speech. I think the news about the US Treasury doubling its longterm bond buybacks is much more likely to be the real reason behind this move. That's something that directly affect liquidity and capital flows.

But I agree with OP that this may still not be the bull market we're waiting for.

[d5000]

very much chances of the popping of the AI bubble that will cause everything to have a big dump occurrence.

Why should the AI bubble burst affect Bitcoin?

People have argued all the time in the last year that AI is sucking money out of Bitcoin. And it may be true to some extent, even if I think it's exaggerated. But then this money could also come back to Bitcoin if AI stocks aren't that profitable anymore.

So growing AI stocks are bad for Bitcoin because it sucks money out, but crashing AI is bad too.

I sometimes feel some speculators want Bitcoin to stay volatile so they can squeeze out every bit of ROI shorting BTC and buying back at lower lows, and trying to install these bearish narratives until they have stocked up (not you @OP, but those who constantly post negative theories and no positive side of them at alll). Dumb conspiration theory, I know

For me it's no longer more a given that we'll see lower lows. It's still possible. But if the price breaks 83/84k sustainably then I think the probability for lower lows (below ~57k) are lower than 50%. Mostly I see these lower lows coming in the case of a prolonged recession. If an AI bubble burst causes this, then this may be one of the few exceptions where I consider the AI bubble burst negative for Bitcoin.

Best scenario for Bitcoin imo would actually be an AI consolidation and even a correction but with no major crash which affects the rest of the economy.

There is also very much the chance that the Clarity act will not get passage to the desk of the Donald for signing which might also cause a big dump for the cryptospace including bitcoin.

The Clarity act doesn't affect Bitcoin legally at all, because Bitcoin never was even close to be considered a security. Other coins are currently in danger to become increasingly irrelevant (see the continuously high Bitcoin dominance and Ethereum's failure to score a new ATH).

I guess if the Clarity act is approved or not, this can cause a price movement of 10-20% but not much more. Altcoins would boom of course, but Bitcoin would not be that affected.

[m2017]

Yes, we are thankful that the Donald has caused the Trump pump to more than $75k. I am very much happy and excited for this, however, the skeptical me is thinking that this might not he the beginning of the bull market similar to what other people might be declaring.

To me, this also looks like a temporary pump rather than the start of a bull market. I don't expect a genuine bull market before April 15, 2028 (halving). Between now and then, there will likely be several more pump-and-dump cycles, and we will probably see levels above $80k.

There are reasons. The speech of the Donald that caused the Trump pump might be an action from the Republicans that they are becoming desperate because there are still very much chances of the popping of the AI bubble that will cause everything to have a big dump occurrence.

Well, you’re confirming the pump theory yourself, rather than a bull market.

There is also very much the chance that the Clarity act will not get passage to the desk of the Donald for signing which might also cause a big dump for the cryptospace including bitcoin.

The signing of the Clarity Act could be delayed indefinitely, but that doesn't mean the delay will cause the crypto market to crash. On the contrary, the signing would likely fuel another pump.


If this is a pump (which is highly likely), isn't it time to sell bitcoin?

[justdimin]

Somehow I also hold the same opinion with you that we shouldn't be carried away by the recent pump. We've seen similar movement in the market before where the market showed signs of a major breakout but ended up returning to the the bullish trend started.

That said, I think attributing the recent rally to Trump's speech is a little too exaggerating. The changes in liquidity expectations, the dollar and the renewed regulatory push also  contributed to the current sentiment.

If Bitcoin can be able to hold the ground it has recovered and continue attracting real buying after these recent excitements settles, then the argument for a new bull phase will definitely become much stronger.

Most people who have seen the history of Bitcoin also believe the same thing; it is not really shocking. We have seen the history of Bitcoin before, and we have seen the four-year cycle, and we have seen how the market moves. So we know that this could be something that would not be all that crazy; it could be something that would not be all that crazy to handle.

I personally believe that the best thing we can do right now would be just making sure that we are handling the situation a lot better over time; we just need it to be something that gets a bit more waiting. Because when winter comes, in December, I am 99% sure that we will be lower than the current price; we are not going to start going down by that time; we would already be down. I bet you that on the 1st of December, the price will be lower than 75k; that is what most of the market assumes and will happen. I do not think that anything bigger would change or be anything different.

[bbc.reporter]

very much chances of the popping of the AI bubble that will cause everything to have a big dump occurrence.

Why should the AI bubble burst affect Bitcoin?

People have argued all the time in the last year that AI is sucking money out of Bitcoin. And it may be true to some extent, even if I think it's exaggerated. But then this money could also come back to Bitcoin if AI stocks aren't that profitable anymore.

So growing AI stocks are bad for Bitcoin because it sucks money out, but crashing AI is bad too.

I sometimes feel some speculators want Bitcoin to stay volatile so they can squeeze out every bit of ROI shorting BTC and buying back at lower lows, and trying to install these bearish narratives until they have stocked up (not you @OP, but those who constantly post negative theories and no positive side of them at alll). Dumb conspiration theory, I know

For me it's no longer more a given that we'll see lower lows. It's still possible. But if the price breaks 83/84k sustainably then I think the probability for lower lows (below ~57k) are lower than 50%. Mostly I see these lower lows coming in the case of a prolonged recession. If an AI bubble burst causes this, then this may be one of the few exceptions where I consider the AI bubble burst negative for Bitcoin.

Best scenario for Bitcoin imo would actually be an AI consolidation and even a correction but with no major crash which affects the rest of the economy.

There is also very much the chance that the Clarity act will not get passage to the desk of the Donald for signing which might also cause a big dump for the cryptospace including bitcoin.

The Clarity act doesn't affect Bitcoin legally at all, because Bitcoin never was even close to be considered a security. Other coins are currently in danger to become increasingly irrelevant (see the continuously high Bitcoin dominance and Ethereum's failure to score a new ATH).

I guess if the Clarity act is approved or not, this can cause a price movement of 10-20% but not much more. Altcoins would boom of course, but Bitcoin would not be that affected.

On the AI bubble pop also affecting bitcoin. Of course this is only a speculation and you can certainly argue that bitcoin will not be affected. However, similar to the dotcom bubble pop where it affected much of the market, the AI bubble pop will be something similar.

Is your argument declaring that bitcoin will pump while the AI bubble, which will affect many countries, is going through a dumping crisis that might bring economies down? This will be headshaking if you say that you are 100% correct on this heheheeheh.

On the Clarity act. The passage of this will bring a clearer framework for everyone and the cryptospace market where bitcoin also belongs. There is a danger if this is not passed because Gensler 2.0 might be an occurrence again on the SEC and the CFTC assuming that the next president is an anticrypto Democrat.

Also, if it will not find passage on September, it will be delayed again, the Clarity act will expire and a new bill should be again be created after the midterm elections. However, if the Democrats will get most of the seats in congress and the senate, there might be a lesser chance that someone will create another cryptospace clarity bill hehehehehe. Are you arguing this is very bullish for bitcoin?

[Kryptowerk]

[...]
On the AI bubble pop also affecting bitcoin. Of course this is only a speculation and you can certainly argue that bitcoin will not be affected. However, similar to the dotcom bubble pop where it affected much of the market, the AI bubble pop will be something similar.

Is your argument declaring that bitcoin will pump while the AI bubble, which will affect many countries, is going through a dumping crisis that might bring economies down? This will be headshaking if you say that you are 100% correct on this heheheeheh.

[...]

Well, one thing is certain, current AI data centers need insane amounts of hardware and energy. So if some percentage of these have to stop their operation it will free resources and energy that might be put into different potentially profitable companies - or Bitcoin mining!