My argument on why this might not be the beginning of the bull market

[Curious T]

On the Clarity act. The passage of this will bring a clearer framework for everyone and the cryptospace market where bitcoin also belongs. There is a danger if this is not passed because Gensler 2.0 might be an occurrence again on the SEC and the CFTC assuming that the next president is an anticrypto Democrat.

Was there ever a pro-bitcoin president in America from 2017-2024? So why are you talking like having a president who is not pro-bitcoin in 2028 would be the end of Bitcoin? In fact, Trump in his first tenure has been the only sitting US president to say "Bitcoin was for criminals". He was as anti bitcoin as they come. My point is Bitcoin has been fine with those ' anticrypto Democrat" and has even performed better than what we're seeing under a pro-bitcoin republican. Whether the Clarity Act is passed or not, it would have no impact on Bitcoin. Passing the bill might make things clearer for businesses and institutional investors, but it is not going to be something that saves Bitcoin. There is no "danger" whatsoever if it is not passed.

[9ja Amaka]

Sometimes it's surprise me seeing that people are more disturbed on how they see the market perform at some point, yet you don't have to be motivated by all this alone because of the market season has to appear regardless of what others are doing to influence the market, sometimes we do find ourselves in a situation being engulfed by the market pump when it is actually indicating something different from what we are seeing, except you focus more on both the fundamental and technical analysis to discover the market direction and pattern at a given time.

It depends on whether you are a trader or an investor. A trader has to focus more on both fundamental and technical analysis because for every trade he enters, he is either making a profit or losing instantly. Unlike an investor, who has the opportunity to wait for the market to recover as long as they want to.

How people see the market is on a different occasion. It becomes disastrous when they have no clue about the market sentiment, yet we the intention that their action will give a positive result. Absolutely no way.

[Rockstarguy]

Since Trump entered office he has been manipulating the price of bitcoin with different news and that's why I don't want to believe that the bull run has started because Trump can still come out tomorrow with a negative news that will affect bitcoin price and make the price dip drastically back to $63k or below. No one can predict the market.

This is not correct. Bitcoin can't be predicted, and what you should know is that the Trump administration is one that is crypto-friendly, and this has impacted the crypto market.

This is an administration that is interested in crypto, and every headline affects the movement of the market. For sure, the Trump effect has influence on the market, but people just assume Donald Trump in person is the one manipulating the crypto market. Right from the start, the market reacts to news, a speech from an influential person. No one has control over the market.

[Ayers]

On the Clarity act. The passage of this will bring a clearer framework for everyone and the cryptospace market where bitcoin also belongs. There is a danger if this is not passed because Gensler 2.0 might be an occurrence again on the SEC and the CFTC assuming that the next president is an anticrypto Democrat.

Was there ever a pro-bitcoin president in America from 2017-2024? So why are you talking like having a president who is not pro-bitcoin in 2028 would be the end of Bitcoin? In fact, Trump in his first tenure has been the only sitting US president to say "Bitcoin was for criminals". He was as anti bitcoin as they come. My point is Bitcoin has been fine with those ' anticrypto Democrat" and has even performed better than what we're seeing under a pro-bitcoin republican. Whether the Clarity Act is passed or not, it would have no impact on Bitcoin. Passing the bill might make things clearer for businesses and institutional investors, but it is not going to be something that saves Bitcoin. There is no "danger" whatsoever if it is not passed.

i can't deny that the democrats have been more negative toward crypto than the republicans. however, Bitcoin has been around for 17 years and has grown under different presidents with very different policies and views. so saying Bitcoin would be in danger if a democrat becomes president would be a pretty political and biased way of looking at it.

similarly, the clarity act may seem important, but its kinda like whether a president supports Bitcoin or not. whether it gets passed or not, or even whether it exists, isnt gonna stop Bitcoin from operating and growing.

the bill isn't what determines Bitcoin's survival. i think a lot of people are exaggerating its importance way too much, imo.

[sergiorus]

On the Clarity act. The passage of this will bring a clearer framework for everyone and the cryptospace market where bitcoin also belongs. There is a danger if this is not passed because Gensler 2.0 might be an occurrence again on the SEC and the CFTC assuming that the next president is an anticrypto Democrat.

Was there ever a pro-bitcoin president in America from 2017-2024? So why are you talking like having a president who is not pro-bitcoin in 2028 would be the end of Bitcoin? In fact, Trump in his first tenure has been the only sitting US president to say "Bitcoin was for criminals". He was as anti bitcoin as they come. My point is Bitcoin has been fine with those ' anticrypto Democrat" and has even performed better than what we're seeing under a pro-bitcoin republican. Whether the Clarity Act is passed or not, it would have no impact on Bitcoin. Passing the bill might make things clearer for businesses and institutional investors, but it is not going to be something that saves Bitcoin. There is no "danger" whatsoever if it is not passed.

i can't deny that the democrats have been more negative toward crypto than the republicans. however, Bitcoin has been around for 17 years and has grown under different presidents with very different policies and views. so saying Bitcoin would be in danger if a democrat becomes president would be a pretty political and biased way of looking at it.

similarly, the clarity act may seem important, but its kinda like whether a president supports Bitcoin or not. whether it gets passed or not, or even whether it exists, isnt gonna stop Bitcoin from operating and growing.

the bill isn't what determines Bitcoin's survival. i think a lot of people are exaggerating its importance way too much, imo.

The bill isn't about Bitcoin whatsoever. It neither hurts it nor benefits it.

BTC already has all the institutional adoption you can imagine. We have public companies buying billions usd worth of Bitcoin from the open market. For others there are ETFs and other ways go
gain exposure.

The bill is all about altcoins, fundraisings, token issuances and so on.

[d5000]

One interesting aspect about the Oct/Nov crash imho could be some correlation with the Ai bubble; my thoughts are that AI tech is pulling in insane amounts of capital, some might come from Bitcoin, also it requires a ton of energy which is then not available for Bitcoin mining and thridly the computer chips required for data centers is again not available for mining hardware. So three factors of the current AI/Datacenter rise that may have a short/mid term negtive effect on Bitcoin [price].

I think the capital inflow into AI stocks indeed could have decreased the demand for Bitcoin investments a bit, and this could be a mild factor for the "contrarian" development of Bitcoin in relation to (tech) stocks in late 2025.

The other two items you mention for me should not have significant effects. For example, on a first glance you could assume that if energy and chips become more scarce and costly that could harm mining companies, and if the mining stocks enter bearish territory this could affect Bitcoin sentiment negatively. But many major mining companies currently have transitioned into Bitcoin/AI hybrids, so they also profit from the AI bubble.

I've looked at MARA stock price and last year it has moved close to the Bitcoin price, but always with some delay: their ATH until now was on October 15, a week later than the Bitcoin ATH. In my opinion this confirms that mining stocks react to the Bitcoin price, instead of vice versa. However of course once mining stocks decline too, that may be a factor that helps perpetuate the bearish sentiment and increase the length of the bear market.

[Jegileman]

Interestingly, a bull market makes itself known; you do not ask "is this bull market"; you see it. And that means long term, not overnight. Look at all bull markets; nothing went from 15k to 70k overnight; it took time, which means that if it is actually the start, then it would go up more and more and more and more. It is not, not so far at least; if it doesn't keep going, then it is not the bull run, and we are not there yet. So make sure that you know what you are dealing with, and in the end, we should not be really considering how things could change.

I understand things are not that great at the moment, but as long as we are not dealing with anything that great, then the result is that it is not a bull run. If you want to make sure, then you can simply just wait, because that is the best way to learn if it is a bull run or not: waiting. If you wait and then the price skyrockets again just like it did recently, then it is a bull run; if it doesn't, then it is not.

I once asked someone’s about how the bull run use to be when it comes and the person said when it is the bull run, you can easily see it, you don’t need to be told or convinced. The market adding $5-$10K within a week is enough to spot a really big change in the market already, we don’t need to be told that because it can be seen physically.

The market is also very volatile and at the same time, we can’t deny the market going up and down while still maintaining an uptrend overall, this is how the market works. Some believe that the bull run already began from the last bearish market price, as long as the market didn’t go beyond that again and continues to move upward, that’s when bull run has began. The bull market is very evident in the market just like the bearish market when they come.

[Showlove01]

The real question isn't if this is a bull market or not, but what would make it a bull market? It takes a few days of good weather to make any day good. I would want to see bitcoin continue to be in the higher zone after all the excitement and then be maintained by consistent demand in the spot zone than mostly speculative leverage. The altcoin reaction might also be helpful confirmation. The higher Bitcoin goes, and the more liquid there is, and the more real buyers there are, the better the bull-market argument becomes. Until now, until it gets to the next phase, until it starts to repeat itself again, I think it's too soon to call it a new cycle. The direction of the price is important but so is the power behind it.

This can be the beginning of the bull run but we can not really tell for now until we see the market break some certain supply zones when I said supply zones I mean strong supply zones that the price are meant to respect. However the market is bulish in the short term because the price before now was $60k pluse now it is standing at $70k to $80k. Saying we can use altcoin reaction to confirm what is happening in an asset like Bitcoin is very funny because it is obvious you don't know those coins depend on Bitcoin.

[Sim_card]

This is not correct. Bitcoin can't be predicted, and what you should know is that the Trump administration is one that is crypto-friendly, and this has impacted the crypto market.

This is an administration that is interested in crypto, and every headline affects the movement of the market. For sure, the Trump effect has influence on the market, but people just assume Donald Trump in person is the one manipulating the crypto market. Right from the start, the market reacts to news, a speech from an influential person. No one has control over the market.

Trump administration made crypto friendly because he is using it to make profit. Didn't you see that he created his own shitcoin and same with his family members. I have been in the cryptospace since Trump took over, his news sometimes are manipulative and it also affects the market. No one can control the market in the long run but there are short term manipulations. The whales can choose to sell too many bitcoin just to make the price dip and they buy back cheaper.

[Wiwo]

Since Trump entered office he has been manipulating the price of bitcoin with different news and that's why I don't want to believe that the bull run has started because Trump can still come out tomorrow with a negative news that will affect bitcoin price and make the price dip drastically back to $63k or below. No one can predict the market.

That have been the goal with Bitcoin and Trump or should I say the entire cryptocurrency market, this is very important to note and to apply discretion when reacting to any Bitcoin market move since the trump administration is more interested in interest accumulations and tarrife.

We can't blame the US president for acting and behaving so especially when we know how business minded he has been even before becoming the president.

[Perfectbaby]

Since Trump entered office he has been manipulating the price of bitcoin with different news and that's why I don't want to believe that the bull run has started because Trump can still come out tomorrow with a negative news that will affect bitcoin price and make the price dip drastically back to $63k or below. No one can predict the market.

That have been the goal with Bitcoin and Trump or should I say the entire cryptocurrency market, this is very important to note and to apply discretion when reacting to any Bitcoin market move since the trump administration is more interested in interest accumulations and tarrife.

We can't blame the US president for acting and behaving so especially when we know how business minded he has been even before becoming the president.

We can't still over looked what Trump can do, as a matter of fact he is a business orientated and he has his own targets unveil or unravel towards what he wanna do or not, I believe when the right time come we would definitely see what he would do. Of course it a strategic move by him and he also influences the market and whatever he said could be true in respect to price movement and fluctuation. After he won and was sworn in power that is how he never made mentioned of Bitcoin or anything that would push the price above our expectations.

[Justbillywitt]

This is not correct. Bitcoin can't be predicted, and what you should know is that the Trump administration is one that is crypto-friendly, and this has impacted the crypto market.

This is an administration that is interested in crypto, and every headline affects the movement of the market. For sure, the Trump effect has influence on the market, but people just assume Donald Trump in person is the one manipulating the crypto market. Right from the start, the market reacts to news, a speech from an influential person. No one has control over the market.

No one has control over the market, that’s very true. But do you know that some people know the influence they carry, so at some point they used their influence in a way that it will benefit them. Them knowing too well that their statement or body language can cause a short term market movement in the direction they want. So they can easily manipulate the market to their favor. Such things do happens, but they only hold short term effects on the market.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

We cannot expect Bitcoin bullrun this time around, we are still in the bear market season, forget about seeing the market going bullish when we are still expecting further fall after it, we can also consider the halving, which is one of the most accurate predictions that give the indication to win a bull season is approaching after an interval of 4 years from the previous one, this is where we cannot believe on everything people are posting online except you know the right thing to do and expect from the market.

[Mayor of ogba]

Since Trump entered office he has been manipulating the price of bitcoin with different news and that's why I don't want to believe that the bull run has started because Trump can still come out tomorrow with a negative news that will affect bitcoin price and make the price dip drastically back to $63k or below. No one can predict the market.

Donald J Trump undertood the effect his speech or post could have on bitcoin, and he's using it perfectly and so far so good it has really favored him and his family since he was voted as the president of the United States of America for the second term. Trump wasn't the one behind the current pump in the price of bitcoin which started on August; it was large institutional buy that triggered the pump, so I believe whether Trump or no Trump bitcoin will hit a new all time high in due time.

[alastantiger]

This is an administration that is interested in crypto, and every headline affects the movement of the market. For sure, the Trump effect has influence on the market, but people just assume Donald Trump in person is the one manipulating the crypto market. Right from the start, the market reacts to news, a speech from an influential person. No one has control over the market.

I think the president does his own on purpose when he keeps saying things that will make the market to react either positively or negatively and he has been doing this consistently hence he might just be trying to control the market and that is why his administration keeps getting accused of insider trading too because people like his son keep making money from the market because of his father speech but there is always a market movement like it knows what is coming next that controls how the market reacts. Donald trump knows the power that he holds and I think, he is abusing it and something needs to be done fast because he and his family had cause more of demange to the market already.

[philipma1957]

 eat your  words.  your negativity is tiring



trump is a tired old man that has shot his shot. btc will roll over him.

[LogitechMouse]

One interesting aspect about the Oct/Nov crash imho could be some correlation with the Ai bubble; my thoughts are that AI tech is pulling in insane amounts of capital, some might come from Bitcoin, also it requires a ton of energy which is then not available for Bitcoin mining and thridly the computer chips required for data centers is again not available for mining hardware. So three factors of the current AI/Datacenter rise that may have a short/mid term negtive effect on Bitcoin [price].
What are your thoughts on the matter?

I've been watching some YouTube Videos with regards to this "AI Bubble", and that bubble is just a bubble that's WAITING TO GET POPPED, and once it's popped, all will be affected. Global markets, tech companies especially these 5 companies who are heavily investing into AI (Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft and NVIDIA), and of course, many, many investors especially those who have leverage positions on these companies.

There are some predictions where this AI bubble could be worse than the Dot-Com bubble that happened in 2000, and TBH, I think that's the way we are heading especially with how much money is being poured towards AI particularly in these data centers. There are many tech companies investing into something that isn't even profitable currently. As for the chips required for these Data Centers, despite of the fact that the manufacturing companies doubled their production, they say that it's still isn't enough with how big the demand is right now.

I wonder though if the bubble will pop in the next 2 months? For me, the most conservative prediction is that it will happen next year, and that of course will have an effect towards the global markets including the crypto market.

[Darker45]

eat your  words.  your negativity is tiring

trump is a tired old man that has shot his shot. btc will roll over him.

We're once again reminded that Bitcoin is king.

Bitcoin doesn't take its strength from Donald Trump or whatever speech he makes. Neither will it automatically bow down to AI fears and bubbles popping and rejected bills. And while rising interest rates may play a role in the next direction Bitcoin's price may take, it certainly isn't a defining factor. Bitcoin marches to the beat of its own drum. Even that 4-year cycle pattern doesn't dictate what's going to happen in this month of rektember.

[jcojci]

We cannot expect Bitcoin bullrun this time around, we are still in the bear market season, forget about seeing the market going bullish when we are still expecting further fall after it, we can also consider the halving, which is one of the most accurate predictions that give the indication to win a bull season is approaching after an interval of 4 years from the previous one, this is where we cannot believe on everything people are posting online except you know the right thing to do and expect from the market.

Although we are still in the bear market season, we can't deny this increasing and this is a good sign for those who want to take profit after struggling and waiting for the rises. The price reach $87k for the temporary highest price and there is a chance for the price to go up for more. But usually after the price increases, there will be a time for the price to get correction so we never know how deep the price will fall. Yes, we can't just believe on those who posting online including in social media because they don't know the truth.

[Sammye3]

eat your  words.  your negativity is tiring

trump is a tired old man that has shot his shot. btc will roll over him.

We're once again reminded that Bitcoin is king.

Bitcoin doesn't take its strength from Donald Trump or whatever speech he makes. Neither will it automatically bow down to AI fears and bubbles popping and rejected bills. And while rising interest rates may play a role in the next direction Bitcoin's price may take, it certainly isn't a defining factor. Bitcoin marches to the beat of its own drum. Even that 4-year cycle pattern doesn't dictate what's going to happen in this month of rektember.

Bitcoin is king undebatably.

The four year cycle is now looking like a factor that does not determine the price of bitcoin in the future, it runs a game of it's own and is independent of any manipulation. No one can accurately specify when we would see a bull run, Bitcoin has left so many people guessing and could likely take us by surprise. Those factors that influences the price of bitcoin is not 100% guaranteed, so what really causes Bitcoin's price hike?