My argument on why this might not be the beginning of the bull market

[STT]

I'll give a very general rule of thumb that doesn't go far wrong, don't rely on politics.  The strength of a nation of any productive capacity is always the people not anyone at the top of any political persuasion.   If politics says they are behind crypto, its not a strength until the people are which takes alot longer to do.  
  Markets jumping on the speech then pulling back on the harsher reality of actually enacting whatever principle was proffered is all too recognizable a phenomena.

BTC is below a weekly average since 7th Oct, generally dont trust it till strength reappears.

[OgNasty]

Maybe this is why Saylor was dumping so hard on his shareholders. He knew it would be his last chance to cash out on the indexes. Bad move by MSCI doing this now if we start another bull run. I think they’re taking advantage of this little rally to get out while they aren’t too far behind but this will be a little negative pressure on the price at the end of the year.

“MSCI officially moves to remove Michael Saylor’s Strategy from its global indexes, starting November 30.“

[alastantiger]

I don't expect anyone to give any analysis explaining why the bull citizen should start right now; this is just market performance, and if we are able to discover the market is going bullish, it does not mean it is already preparing for the bull run season. These are part of the ways some investors make mistakes, thinking that the little surge they experience in the market rise will eventually lead to the boom of the entire market for a bull run.

There are many ideas out there and the most popular one is the fact that the market bounce back from the same amount of days that it took the market to bounce back last bear market from being bearish to bullish and this is why most people are thinking the bull maker has arrived. Some people are also thinking that the market is not going to be in the usual way it used to be because institutional money is now more in the market hence we can have bull market anytime and it most not be after Bitcoin halving any more.

The market is having some little chances hence there could be some truth in all this theories but I think we will have to wait for the market to know if the bull market is active or this was just another market bounce back that will retrace soon. When the market does not go below the current bottom again then I can believe we reached the bottom and the market is gaining back its lost price and heading up.

[Leahized]

To be fair when the economy is doing badly, that means Bitcoin does better. And considering over a trillion went into these companies, that means if they stop and things slow down, then the economy will slow down and that means bitcoin will go up.

I don't know, if these companies are investing over a trillion dollars. If considered partially correct, the price of Bitcoin could rise. And conversely, more liquidity could be added to Bitcoin. Which is the beginning of an upward trend. My question is, when the economy is weak, what kind of impact does it have on crypto? Because during these times, people hesitate to invest.

The argument for Bitcoin halving is valid but AI is gradually improving. I think, in two to three years, data centres will have more influence. Since this is only speculation based activity, we should keep an eye on reality.

[bbc.reporter]

I have argued that it might still not be the bull market for bitcoin and the cryptospace, however, when mainstream news and cryptonews media themselves begin to declare and make storylines that the AI bubble will also cause bitcoin to go through another big dump, it might be time to pay attention. When they say get out of everything, I reckon what should be said is if you are in AI, start looking at the cryptospace for investments.



Bitcoin slid by the most in two weeks, losing as much as 2.9% since midnight UTC to below $82,000 after mixed earnings reports revived doubts over AI spending and sent equities lower in Asia.

Chinese stocks entered a bear market, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell more 3%, South Korea’s Kospi lost 3.5% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 2.7%. Nasdaq 100 index futures dropped 1.32% and S&P 500 futures 0.66%.

Read in full https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/22/bitcoin-slides-below-usd82-000-as-ai-doubts-return-with-defi-tokens-leading-declines

[Swordsoffreedom]

I have argued that it might still not be the bull market for bitcoin and the cryptospace,

We've probably already seen the bottom of this bear cycle, with $57k being the final low. Still, it's a bit early to say the bull market has really kicked off, not while macro and geopolitical uncertainty keeps weighing on the market.

however, when mainstream news and cryptonews media themselves begin to declare and make storylines that the AI bubble will also cause bitcoin to go through another big dump, it might be time to pay attention. When they say get out of everything, I reckon what should be said is if you are in AI, start looking at the cryptospace for investments.

My take is, whether the AI bubble pops or not, it couldn't be a better time to get into crypto.  That's already been confirmed, and sooner or later the bull run has to come.

[#CapsLOck]

However, a price breakout alone isn't enough to prove a new bull market. I would focus more on the outcome of whether or not Bitcoin is able to maintain the breakout price once the initial hype subsides. If it's heavily helped by the headlines. It's a rally that could falter when people get distracted. If there is an uptick in spot demand and traders volume and sustained high lows. It should be a better basis for the trend. It's not so much the question of whether this pump is legit, but whether or not buyers will be active when the momentum of the news is gone.

[Odohu]

However, a price breakout alone isn't enough to prove a new bull market. I would focus more on the outcome of whether or not Bitcoin is able to maintain the breakout price once the initial hype subsides. If it's heavily helped by the headlines. It's a rally that could falter when people get distracted. If there is an uptick in spot demand and traders volume and sustained high lows. It should be a better basis for the trend. It's not so much the question of whether this pump is legit, but whether or not buyers will be active when the momentum of the news is gone.

A real breakout is how direction is confirmed, real because it has to be confirmed by both momentum volume which usually signify that there is liquidity to drive the market. This is how the market works and it will only fail when the breakout did not satisfy any of the conditions above. We may not establish a bull run for now but the market is looking determined not to seek a new low within this cycle and that is something exciting to know for those who are afraid of seeing their portfolio in red.

[Rhow]

@everyone. It appears that there are market observers are noticing that the AI bubble might be beginning to pop and it is starting on the stock market of South Korea where there are companies there who are manufacturing hardware for AI companies and datacenter.

In any case, everyone should begin following the stock of the company Taiwan Semiconductors. If this will have a big dump occurrence, we can slowly become certain that the bubble pop is spreading across Asia and this might also slowly begin in America.

What does everyone speculate this will do to bitcoin and the cryptospace? Will this pump?

To be fair when the economy is doing badly, that means Bitcoin does better.

I am sorry, however, I very much disagree! If the economy is doing badly, people will want to save much their dollars and avoid speculative investments similar to bitcoin. The stock market also goes down during these economic recessions and very much certainly also the cryptospace market.

I accept that when the economic situation is bad, many people may withdraw money from risky investments. However, it is logical that if the economic situation is bad, the price of Bitcoin will definitely decrease, but in some cases it may be different. I will definitely give you an example, because I am not talking about something baseless. I am talking about the time when COVID-19 caused panic in the financial markets around the world. Probably the time was around March 2020. At that time, along with the stock market, the price of Bitcoin fell drastically. It even lost up to 40 percent of its value. But later, as liquidity increased in the market and investor confidence returned, the price of Bitcoin also started to increase again. At the beginning of an economic downturn, investors may sell Bitcoin to meet their cash needs. But later, if interest rates decrease or liquidity increases in the market, the situation may be different.

[bbc.reporter]

My only worry, if the bullish people are correct, is the pumps will be as weak or weaker than the pumps of the bull market from 2023 to 2025. What if the next peak price for bitcoin will only be $150k? That is only 2x from the present price hehehehe.



Bitcoin and gold are 2026’s worst-performing assets, and history offers no precedent

The two assets investors often turn to for protection are trailing stocks, bonds and even cash this year.

Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at Creative Planning, and a strong voice in the crypto industry, said on X that Bitcoin is down 7.3% and gold is down 7.5% so far in 2026, making them the two worst-performing major assets of the year.

Read in full https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/bitcoin-and-gold-are-2026s-worst-performing-assets-and-history-offers-no-precedent

[d5000]

history offers no precedent

Whut? That's really one of the worst articles I've ever read ...

According to Biello Bitcoin is down a terrifying 7.5% in 2026. Was he around in 2022 or 2018? Maybe he's too young to have witnessed the early 1980s gold crash. But as he talks about "history", he should also be aware of tulips, or not?

I also believe your fears about the weaker pumps are unfounded. If Bitcoin is more stable and the 70-85% crashes are gone, if any it should attract more investment, not less. Yes, volatility can be fun, but look at most altcoins how it can end.

[Emeraldo]

However, a price breakout alone isn't enough to prove a new bull market. I would focus more on the outcome of whether or not Bitcoin is able to maintain the breakout price once the initial hype subsides. If it's heavily helped by the headlines. It's a rally that could falter when people get distracted. If there is an uptick in spot demand and traders volume and sustained high lows. It should be a better basis for the trend. It's not so much the question of whether this pump is legit, but whether or not buyers will be active when the momentum of the news is gone.

When we experienced a huge downward movement in the price of Bitcoin as at last year, so many investors were thinking if the price of Bitcoin was trying to give a bear trap until we saw the price falling to about 35% downtown before many holders realized what's happening. The same way we are going to enter a bull market gradually and so many investors may not know what's happening until the price of Bitcoin has gone far. I am not here to speculate what will happen but I am not ignorant of how the price of Bitcoin has been moving.

[bbc.reporter]

history offers no precedent

Whut? That's really one of the worst articles I've ever read ...

According to Biello Bitcoin is down a terrifying 7.5% in 2026. Was he around in 2022 or 2018? Maybe he's too young to have witnessed the early 1980s gold crash. But as he talks about "history", he should also be aware of tulips, or not?

I also believe your fears about the weaker pumps are unfounded. If Bitcoin is more stable and the 70-85% crashes are gone, if any it should attract more investment, not less. Yes, volatility can be fun, but look at most altcoins how it can end.

Yes, Biello is arguing what bitcoin is presently doing and he is speculating that this will continue on the next bull market. However, what is your argument? Are you quite certain that bitcoin will perform similarly to the bull market on the years you mentioned, 2018 or 2022?

On your argument on lower volatility, agreed that big dumps will be welcome but this also implies that there will only be small pumps similar to what I have mentioned as a possibility.

[Kelward]

However, a price breakout alone isn't enough to prove a new bull market. I would focus more on the outcome of whether or not Bitcoin is able to maintain the breakout price once the initial hype subsides. If it's heavily helped by the headlines. It's a rally that could falter when people get distracted. If there is an uptick in spot demand and traders volume and sustained high lows. It should be a better basis for the trend. It's not so much the question of whether this pump is legit, but whether or not buyers will be active when the momentum of the news is gone.

So far Bitcoin price increase has not been sustainable, at the verge of seeing a bullish trend we see a retracement and that has been the trend for a couple of months and what I can say is that these short-lived downward trends have been against an actual bull run to start in earnest. If the market trends continues in this format I don't think that we should expect the begining of a sustainable bull run in this year, I believe that the least we can expect is a price of up to $100k, it can increase or decrease but I don't anticipate an ATH. We have seen fundamentals in terms of news within this year that could have triggered a bull run but they all came short, except we hear of a news that would have a global impact to stire sustained FOMO in the market that is where we can expect a begining of bull run.

[Jubilee58]

If a particular cryptocurrency pumps, that doesn't mean the bull season has arrived, in many occasions in the cryptocurrency market, we see some coins rise in price, but the truth is that such price increase is is temporary, and not sustainable, and many times it happens to new cryptocurrencies.
Some of the reasons why particular cryptocurrency can rise because of hype or celebrities involvement, when there is a tweet about a coin by any celebrity, because of their large number of fan base they rush to purchase this particular coin igniting drastic increase in the price of such coin.

However, bull season is always very peculiar which I think starts with Bitcoin, and bull season is not always restricted to a particular coin, but spreads to the general cryptocurrency market.

[Davidloki]

However, a price breakout alone isn't enough to prove a new bull market. I would focus more on the outcome of whether or not Bitcoin is able to maintain the breakout price once the initial hype subsides. If it's heavily helped by the headlines. It's a rally that could falter when people get distracted. If there is an uptick in spot demand and traders volume and sustained high lows. It should be a better basis for the trend. It's not so much the question of whether this pump is legit, but whether or not buyers will be active when the momentum of the news is gone.

A real breakout is how direction is confirmed, real because it has to be confirmed by both momentum volume which usually signify that there is liquidity to drive the market. This is how the market works and it will only fail when the breakout did not satisfy any of the conditions above. We may not establish a bull run for now but the market is looking determined not to seek a new low within this cycle and that is something exciting to know for those who are afraid of seeing their portfolio in red.

Bitcoin's lowest this year was at $57k and it's price has increased over 40% since then, so it's understandable to speculate that bitcoin would not see a lower low than the previous one in this cycle and it would be a bullish run onwards.

The panic sellers should be in loss after that drawback in July while the holders should be smiling and be in expectation for more bullish run.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

If a particular cryptocurrency pumps, that doesn't mean the bull season has arrived, in many occasions in the cryptocurrency market, we see some coins rise in price, but the truth is that such price increase is is temporary, and not sustainable, and many times it happens to new cryptocurrencies.
Some of the reasons why particular cryptocurrency can rise because of hype or celebrities involvement, when there is a tweet about a coin by any celebrity, because of their large number of fan base they rush to purchase this particular coin igniting drastic increase in the price of such coin.

However, bull season is always very peculiar which I think starts with Bitcoin, and bull season is not always restricted to a particular coin, but spreads to the general cryptocurrency market.

We haven't seen the catalyst for a bull run, and that is the block halving. So for now, even if we see a huge pump, it's not going to be sustainable as the market is still in it's worst bear market as we can see year to year, we are down 7% and for this month 3%.

So there could be argument that we are still not in the bull market, but there could be others who is one to other side of it. But if we look at the historical logs and when the bull run actually starts, it's usually around the time of halving.

[348Judah]

We haven't seen the catalyst for a bull run, and that is the block halving. So for now, even if we see a huge pump, it's not going to be sustainable as the market is still in it's worst bear market as we can see year to year, we are down 7% and for this month 3%.

You are right, we are still far away from the bull market for Bitcoin for now, any pump received shouldn't be a deception to us because it will still end up bearish as the market will later fall based on the season we are into currently, we have to be more also careful about market fake out, this is one of the critical stages at which we maintain the market is already set for the moon before we realize it is only a deception or a bull trap.

[d5000]

Yes, Biello is arguing what bitcoin is presently doing and he is speculating that this will continue on the next bull market. However, what is your argument? Are you quite certain that bitcoin will perform similarly to the bull market on the years you mentioned, 2018 or 2022?

No, my argument is that Bilello (I forgot an L in the last post lol) over-dramatizes the Bitcoin fall in 2026. Or perhaps the article is so crappy that this is the message it conveys and he meant actually another thing with "without precedent", perhaps that both Bitcoin and gold fell? But I just checked and in the Bitcoin "bear years" 2014, 2018 and 2022 gold also yielded negative returns, albeit less so (in the 1-5% range) than in 2026.

On your argument on lower volatility, agreed that big dumps will be welcome but this also implies that there will only be small pumps similar to what I have mentioned as a possibility.

I'm not sure about that. If the increased stability means that a new group of investors becomes attracted, those seeking a vehicle to "save" money instead of speculate on "riding the bull market", this group could lead to a steady influx of money and thus to a even higher growth rate.

Of course that would mean that if you invest at the bottom of the bear market, your returns would probably not be that high (because the fall was less sharp). But even that is not totally out of the question. If the volatility halves and the "long term growth rate" doubles, your returns from "bear market low" to "bull market high" will be exactly the same. And if you invest the long term (e.g. by DCAing) your returns would be significantly higher.

On a whole, Bitcoin would become more attractive for investors, not less.

[Asiska02]

So there could be argument that we are still not in the bull market, but there could be others who is one to other side of it. But if we look at the historical logs and when the bull run actually starts, it's usually around the time of halving.

Short pump in the market is making a lot of people have some kind of doubts on the usual trend in the market. We should not deviate from the normal consensus of the market when the bull always happens, this is not the time for the bull market and any short change we see in the market should not be directed towards a bull sentiment. Let the time come and then a clear sign that we are in a full blown bull run before we can begin to talk about how much the market can pump and to what extent it can remain in that state. Halving is far from happening now, so I think in the market if far from being in the bull state.