why are more goals scored in the final minutes? can we take advantage?

[blomen]

while looking at statistics for various leagues, i came across the distribution of goals scored by minute in la liga last season. as i examined the data, i would have considered it normal for more goals to be scored in the final minutes, but i didn’t expect the difference to be that significant.

https://statsultra.com/when-are-most-goals-scored-football/



the minutes shown here as 41-50 and 81-90 include stoppage time, but even when we calculate the average, we still see that significantly more goals are scored in the final minutes compared to the game as a whole.

in some matches, when placing live bets, there are bets where you predict the period in which the next goal will be scored. do you think this can be exploited in terms of betting?

[OsaiEmma]

Do you think this can be exploited in terms of betting?

Exploited? Don't kid yourself . There is nothing to exploit here. This might the case for last two seasons, do you think it will be the same this season? Maybe if your analysis has expanded to even more previous seasons -- like 5 to 10 seasons ago -- so as to gather enough data, then it will be somewhat reliable -- not completely reliable -- and maybe some room for exploitation can be seen. But, with just 2 seasons, I won't 100% draw a conclusion and say this is exploitable.

Honestly, I think this is a commendable find though. There are factors like fatigue, mistakes, injury, desperation etc, within the last minute that creates more goal scoring opportunities. So, I'll go with placing a small test bet on this market, and keep observing too. Who knows, there might be something there.

[bitbollo]

interesting argument...
but it can't be exploited in most of the cases since bookmakers already have the same data, and here the evidence is pretty big.
Plus this is a common dynamic in a socce match: in the last minutes the players are tired. there is no chance to substitions and most of teams are not able to keep the squad properly placed.

[blomen]

This might the case for last two seasons, do you think it will be the same this season? Maybe if your analysis has expanded to even more previous seasons -- like 5 to 10 seasons ago -- so as to gather enough data, then it will be somewhat reliable -- not completely reliable -- and maybe some room for exploitation can be seen.

actually, even though this study covers two seasons of the premier league, this isn’t a situation unique to those two seasons. after you mentioned it, i checked the timing of goals in the premier league, la liga, and serie a over the course of several seasons, and overall, the pattern remains the same. in the final minutes, the number of critical and risky attempts by players may indeed increase as the match nears its end. this cannot be explained by tiredness alone. in fact, i believe tiredness should have the opposite effect.

[boyptc]

in some matches, when placing live bets, there are bets where you predict the period in which the next goal will be scored. do you think this can be exploited in terms of betting?

Not really. Can be taken as advantage based on how you look at it.

Because the bookies knew well these timings and if they saw that it can be abused by the bettors, then they won't allow it to happen in the first place.

Like the leagues in the games and rounds, there are give away threads there you can see where everyone is free to pick at which minute the first goal will be.

[Awaklara]

do you think this can be exploited in terms of betting?

Of course it's possible, but only if you're lucky. I just think the risk of the bet is also quite high, the match situation in the final minutes sometimes causes the market to close or the odds to change quickly. Some bettors who place bets before the match are also usually tricked into cashing out early. In fact, if they consider staying until the end of the match, there is a chance they could win the bet in full.

[Die_empty]

in some matches, when placing live bets, there are bets where you predict the period in which the next goal will be scored. do you think this can be exploited in terms of betting?

You are free to adopt any strategy that works for you in sports betting and other areas. Towards the end of the game, players are desperate, tired, and prone to errors, which might result in more goals. When you think you have found an exploit route in gambling, it might end up becoming inconsistent.

The report has data from the EPL for two seasons. This might be a coincidence for those two seasons. Comparing it with other leagues and seasons would give a clearer picture.

[PostQuantumBTC]

in some matches, when placing live bets, there are bets where you predict the period in which the next goal will be scored. do you think this can be exploited in terms of betting?

The bookies that set the odds know all these, they use it to set odds that the bettors can not use to to make money from them unless the bettor is only lucky, but the luck which is for a short period of time and not long period of time.

I have bet on minute range for a team to score very well before, I lost more than win regardless of the time range that I selected.

[KTChampions]

while looking at statistics for various leagues, i came across the distribution of goals scored by minute in la liga last season. as i examined the data, i would have considered it normal for more goals to be scored in the final minutes, but i didn’t expect the difference to be that significant.

https://statsultra.com/when-are-most-goals-scored-football/



the minutes shown here as 41-50 and 81-90 include stoppage time, but even when we calculate the average, we still see that significantly more goals are scored in the final minutes compared to the game as a whole.

in some matches, when placing live bets, there are bets where you predict the period in which the next goal will be scored. do you think this can be exploited in terms of betting?

First, I'm not sure the data is accurate. Notice how the last (anomalous) interval is described: 81-90 minutes. On average, 4-5 minutes are added to the game, sometimes even 10, which significantly increases this interval relative to others. Roughly speaking, the goals per minute indicator, taking this into account, doesn't differ much from other intervals. But it does differ, as teams take risks late in the game to achieve the desired outcome or avoid defeat.
Is it possible to profit from this? I haven't tried it, but I've been thinking about it because when I watch the odds for Who Will Score the Next Goal (3 outcomes) and Who Will Win (3 outcomes), they change at an absolutely inappropriate pace in the final minutes. It seems like there are ways to make a profit here, but you have to be quick, maybe even use a bot.

[Achalugo BTC]

The bookies that set the odds know all these, they use it to set odds that the bettors can not use to to make money from them unless the bettor is only lucky, but the luck which is for a short period of time and not long period of time.

I have bet on minute range for a team to score very well before, I lost more than win regardless of the time range that I selected.

That is how they want it. They have always wanted themselves to gain more than the players, that's why they always set the game in a way that players' outcome depends largely on luck. Also, players can't keep winning consistently, because if they fail to do what is necessary by walking away when away for their own good. Which the bookies will take advantage of that, whereby they will make the game more difficult for bettors and won't have any other choice but to put back all they have won, unless they take the necessary steps even if it goes against their emotions.

[CryptoHeadlineNews]

the minutes shown here as 41-50 and 81-90 include stoppage time, but even when we calculate the average, we still see that significantly more goals are scored in the final minutes compared to the game as a whole.

I'm definitely not surprised to see 41-50 and 81-90 at the 10 minutes known to having the most goals in La-Liga, and i'm sure this might not be only applicable to La-Liga, but the entire football games at large, because this is usually the timeframe through which at the football teams struggles and try to score goal to win or either equalize at all cost, and in the process of trying to do so, some might succeed while others may not. But on an average most usually succeed in scoring at least one or two goals within this last 10 minutes, depending on the pressure exacted on the opponent team.

in some matches, when placing live bets, there are bets where you predict the period in which the next goal will be scored. do you think this can be exploited in terms of betting?

Yes, this feature is very common on crypto casinos, and somehow this feature is not different from the standard gambling feature whereby you predict either if home or away team will win, or the game will end draw. Because fully well that more goals will be scored at the last minutes of a football match is not enough, as you need to know the exact team that is likely to score the goal at the last minutes, which is what matters most.

[Ruttoshi]

It wouldn't always work out which makes it unexploitable for me because only luck can guarantee your win and not your strategy. If only all gamblers know when they will win their bets, they'll bet with a huge amount of money to hit it big but it's impossible to know. It's the same with this dying minutes goal bet.

There's always a lot of pressure mounted on both teams at the last ten minutes of the game which makes it easy for a goal to come in after a mistake by the opposition team.

[bitLeap]

in some matches, when placing live bets, there are bets where you predict the period in which the next goal will be scored. do you think this can be exploited in terms of betting?

There is nothing that can be used because when it is near the end of the game, our bets are locked (including starting Bets) so that gamblers do not cashout when their team is superior. But when the moment a goal is created in the final minute that makes a draw, here you have to lose the bet and not use it to cashout.

[Mr_Brilliant$]

It's good that this data is known. But don't take it like as if the bookmakers don't know it too. Even if it is used as our advantage, we still have to keep in mind that it's all probability. This are just observations, it will still need to be tested. I don't see why it shouldn't be used, but it should not be used as a sure game.

[Wiwo]

Interesting argument...
But it can't be exploited in most cases since bookmakers already have the same data, and here the evidence is pretty big.
Plus this is a common dynamic in a socce match: in the last minutes the players are tired. there is no chance to substitions and most of teams are not able to keep the squad properly placed.

Playing for 90+ minutes can be exhausting for most struggling team, and at the time, the team with the stronger more experienced player's can double in on their goals scores, which can translate into multiple goalscores in the last minutes of most matches, like what this stats and chart record.

[Ashawowo(OS)]

the minutes shown here as 41-50 and 81-90 include stoppage time, but even when we calculate the average, we still see that significantly more goals are scored in the final minutes compared to the game as a whole.

The study might be correct, but it boils down to which leagues and specific teams are actually in this category and how often the pattern  replicate among such teams, does it happen mostly at the beginning of leagues or ending? This is a random occurrence and in the few matches I've watched in this current season of various leagues, it didn't play out like that.

in some matches, when placing live bets, there are bets where you predict the period in which the next goal will be scored. do you think this can be exploited in terms of betting?

Well you can make it more convincing by experimenting yourself, if you can win long-term in it, then it would be an established strategy.

[rdluffy]

I’m telling you, that’s normal in soccer
I play soccer with friends, and I can tell you that exactly the same thing happens, most of the goals are scored right at the end of the game
The urgency to win or come back increases as the end of the game approaches, and it happens almost every time. It only doesn’t happen when the goal difference is too big and it’s impossible to come back

Now, in professional matches, whenever a team needs a win or a draw, the end of the game picks up the pace, and one team rushes to score a goal as quickly as possible

You just have to be careful with betting, because there are games where a draw benefits both teams, and that urgency won’t be there

[Don Pedro Dinero]

Exploited? Don't kid yourself . There is nothing to exploit here.

interesting argument...
but it can't be exploited in most of the cases since bookmakers already have the same data, and here the evidence is pretty big.

The bookies that set the odds know all these, they use it to set odds that the bettors can not use to to make money from them unless the bettor is only lucky, but the luck which is for a short period of time and not long period of time.

After that, there isn't much else to say. The OP thought he'd found a supposed loophole he could use to make money, but nothing could be further from the truth. The bookmakers have access to those same statistics, and they're the ones who set the odds. Nothing new here.

I would recommend to lock the thread to avoid it to become a mega spam one, as there is not much else to discuss here.

[Hewlet]

the minutes shown here as 41-50 and 81-90 include stoppage time, but even when we calculate the average, we still see that significantly more goals are scored in the final minutes compared to the game as a whole.

The reason is obvious and it's because toward the end of the game, reality eventually dawn's on all players concerned and while the winning teams won't to score to get higher advantage, the loosing team wants to equalize by all means and what that result to is an eventual porosity in Thier defence which can only result to more goals coming from either of both ends.

This usually happens in games where both team struggle to score early goals. If a team goes up by two goals or more before the second half, chances are high that towards the one of the game no goals would be scored. This shows that while the statistics isn't false, you can't really use that as an index for your prediction because every game is different and unique in Thier own way.

[o48o]

From what i know, some strategies aim to reserve energy, so that teams could quickly adapt to different tactics that opposite team tries out.

If you are playing with full steam right from the start and get goals, that could lead to breaking the confidence of other team, but the backside of it is that other team who has played more with passive defense have now more resources to exploit the fatigue of the other team. When team are tired, it's easier to break their defenses and their spirit all together.

Could that be that simple?