why are more goals scored in the final minutes? can we take advantage?

[jeremypwr]

Probably the combo of desperation and players being exhausted
The latter can leave to poor defense which in return leads to goal scoring

[Hispo]

In theory it can be used by bettors in order to get some advantage against other bettors who have no idea about this statistics, but realistically, this information won't guarantee a win in the long term either.

About the reasons on why something like this happens, I assume it is because players get more pressured into scoring goals as the match reaches its end, so they can secure their win against their foes.

I have always assumed teams usually start slow in order to study their opponents so they get offensive after the first half of the match.

This is a better point as to why goals are being scored in the final minutes of the game in all competitions if I’m not mistaken. The pressure gets intense in the final minutes especially if that goal will give them a point. When you’re playing against a team that’s very good defensively, while your offense is very good also, you’ll have a way around it more as even their defense could be destabilized because of the pressure being mounted on them to not concede a goal. This works often but not in most cases and gamblers looking to use this as an advantage while betting will only end up getting disappointed because of how unpredictable the game of football can be.

Teams that starts slow to study the match are mostly big opponents against each other, it doesn’t work like that for most teams that are playing against a lesser team to them in performance and everything.

Well, in this case we are talking about football, in an average football match, a single goal can mark the difference between a loss and a win. So it makes sense football players try to do their best at the end of the match, if that means securing a win by a single or perhaps two goals.

There are teams which actually take some time to study their foes during the match, but there are others who take the offensive approach as soon as the match commences... I guess it depends on how much confidence such team have at the moment...

[IjawMan]

Do you think this can be exploited in terms of betting?

Exploited? Don't kid yourself . There is nothing to exploit here. This might the case for last two seasons, do you think it will be the same this season? Maybe if your analysis has expanded to even more previous seasons -- like 5 to 10 seasons ago -- so as to gather enough data, then it will be somewhat reliable -- not completely reliable -- and maybe some room for exploitation can be seen. But, with just 2 seasons, I won't 100% draw a conclusion and say this is exploitable.

Honestly, I think this is a commendable find though. There are factors like fatigue, mistakes, injury, desperation etc, within the last minute that creates more goal scoring opportunities. So, I'll go with placing a small test bet on this market, and keep observing too. Who knows, there might be something there.

There is no exploitation of the game for betting benefits as all of that could be a coincidence, and it is possible to happen since the final few minutes of football matches are usually overtaken by pressure with one side mounting to see if they can either equalise or win the game at the dying minute. In all my years of watching the games the tendency has always been so and it's not surprising to me that the op analysis points this out.

[Crypto_Timothy]

Hm, I never thought about this statistic but looking at it now I guess it makes sense, even in the recent world Cup we could see goals being scored at the last 10 minutes because that's when the pressure hits most players. If you are someone who waits till the last minute to do stuffs you will understand this very well and funny enough most goals would come in the last 10 minutes of the match after playing 0 - 0 for  like 70 minutes.

[Cantsay]

Hm, I never thought about this statistic but looking at it now I guess it makes sense, even in the recent world Cup we could see goals being scored at the last 10 minutes because that's when the pressure hits most players. If you are someone who waits till the last minute to do stuffs you will understand this very well and funny enough most goals would come in the last 10 minutes of the match after playing 0 - 0 for  like 70 minutes.

The thing is that you still can't rely on it to bet; if you use statistics like this to create a betting strategy, midway or a few weeks into using it, you would realise the flaw in it and would give it up.

Do you really think that no one has considered this strategy before? Even those who usually wait for die minute before they place their bets or waits till one team has scored before they bet on the other seems to be taking this into account because during the ending that is when players would their full energy to try and score to win or equalize the game.

[Cheema02]

in some matches, when placing live bets, there are bets where you predict the period in which the next goal will be scored. do you think this can be exploited in terms of betting?

No, you can't exploit that thing or option because the sportsbook won't let you make such bets right before the 80th minute of the game, which means that you will have to make your bet earlier, or the odds will be extremely tiny if no goal is score until the 80th minute and you get to make such a bet, because if the odds say that more goals are scored on average within this timeframe, you won't get very high odds for it. We need to understand that oddsmakers and sportsbooks are usually smarter than average people like us, which means that they will barely leave any room for us to exploit any of the options provided.

Now for the reason, I think we all know how players and teams mostly do their best to score towards the end of a game because that increases their chances of defending the goal they may score and win. I'm not saying that they don't try throughout the game, but mostly if you notice, they try harder towards the end, and if we look at the stats of how many shots are hit on the target, I'm sure we will have the same timeframe leading the stats.

[Frankolala]

There is no exploitation of the game for betting benefits as all of that could be a coincidence, and it is possible to happen since the final few minutes of football matches are usually overtaken by pressure with one side mounting to see if they can either equalise or win the game at the dying minute. In all my years of watching the games the tendency has always been so and it's not surprising to me that the op analysis points this out.

Any strategy that you feel you can use to exploit gambling is welcome but will it really work for you in the long run because if it doesn't then, you were only lucky to win those games you won because your strategy cannot take you anywhere in gambling. Luck is the key factor to winning and if you exclude luck, you cannot win your bet.

[ArabBTC]

I think i agree with OP that more goals are scored in the last minutes because personally i have observed similar pattern in different leagues, i feel the reason why most goals come in the last minutes is because the players are already tired and wont be able to give their best in terms of defending in the last minute due to fatigue, i also feel that their is more tension in the match once players see the stoppage time, both teams will want to put in their best once the stoppage time is raised to ensure they get the best outcome from the match and that will affect their game play an result to the team either conceding or scoring.

If i was a coach i will prefer to secure my lead at early stages of the match because if you wait till the last minute and your opponent score you it will be very difficult for you to equalize due to the time constraints even if you are the better team.

[AYOBA]

It actually makes a lot of sense that more goals are scored in late minutes of the games and the perfect reason as to why it happens is the fact that players usually get tired and lose focus, but making some money of that stats is a bit harder than it looks because even the betting apps are also aware of same stats and they purposely make late goals payout small, they understand that players make mistakes at the end of the game, like in the final 10 minutes.

That’s how football goes at times the team that people don’t expect any goal from them, the opponents will come out with a a lots of goals and that’s why if we observe some of the gamblers when they come to bets they prefer to make a lately betting, since is bringing big money is just that it has high risks in terms of losing people’s that are using it are few, because not everyone have that kind of mind to lose big amounts of money.

[Africolo]

while looking at statistics for various leagues, i came across the distribution of goals scored by minute in la liga last season. as i examined the data, i would have considered it normal for more goals to be scored in the final minutes, but i didn’t expect the difference to be that significant.

https://statsultra.com/when-are-most-goals-scored-football/



the minutes shown here as 41-50 and 81-90 include stoppage time, but even when we calculate the average, we still see that significantly more goals are scored in the final minutes compared to the game as a whole.

in some matches, when placing live bets, there are bets where you predict the period in which the next goal will be scored. do you think this can be exploited in terms of betting?

Well, in a way this statistics can be useful for gamblers to exploit but due to the fact that games are unpredictable which the outcome of a game can't be known it can't be exploited because even the bookmarks are aware of this statistics and they will definitely work on the odds towards it, so I won't encourage any gambler to exploit this statistics they should just stick to their main strategies because you can't depend on this and not get disappointed at the end of the day.

Besides this is a new season and you don't expect the stats to be the same as last season because definitely the games will change and teams might not be scoring late minutes goals, moreover having the best strategies and selection knowledge can't make one win except he is very lucky so this can't be exploit in betting due to the uncertainties in games which can't be predictable and it's subject to changes every new season.

[Felicity_Tide]

while looking at statistics for various leagues, i came across the distribution of goals scored by minute in la liga last season

I guess you meant (Premier League), and not La Liga.

in some matches, when placing live bets, there are bets where you predict the period in which the next goal will be scored. do you think this can be exploited in terms of betting?

I don't think so because at the end, it's still a game of luck, and the chances of not seeing a late minute goal are also high. As far as sport betting is concerned, especially in football, there are patterns that often repeat themselves, but it's not like they serve as an automatic cheat code to win big. Take for example, a team like Arsenal did scored a lot of goals from corners last season and a season before. But it still wasn't enough to give bettors the confidence to actually bet on them to repeat the same thing in every game.

But generally, late minutes goals are quite common, and that's because the intensity of the game are sometimes very high at that moment especially when both teams are still playing a goalless draw, or there is just a one goal margin. But it's still not enough reason to trust the data and start betting for late goals, knowing fully well that it might not happen. And again, if you're to bet a single goal only from the +80mins, it's likely to get smaller odds.

[free-bit.co.in]

in some matches, when placing live bets, there are bets where you predict the period in which the next goal will be scored. do you think this can be exploited in terms of betting?

hmm, late goal effect is real. And fatigue, losing team's increased attacking risk, fresh substitutes and stoppage time are all at work behind it.

But there is an important distinction in betting. There is no real connection between having more goal and getting profitable odd from that information. Just as we know this information, so do sportsbooks know this historical distribution. And when making live odd, they incorporate match state, scoreline, red card, substitution, pre-match strength, current chances, etc. I think in-play football price are quite efficient in many case, although there can be temporary mispricing in certain situation.

[Jewan420]

You may only win one or two out of ten bets, all the rest are more likely to lose. The two periods you mentioned add up to 31%, meaning that 31% of the goals were scored in these two periods. But the remaining 69% of the goals were scored at other times of the match, so you can never be sure when a goal is going to be scored. You can generally guess at what time of the match a goal is likely to be scored, but that cannot be converted into a bet. Because I don't want to lose money unnecessarily.
From my point of view, betting based on these statistics is completely stupid, you may end up losing more than winning. To ensure victory, it becomes mandatory for teams to score goals at the last minute, as a result of which players are more aggressive and the team that is ahead is more defensive. That is why there are more goals at the last minute of the match, sometimes they are also counterattacked, these goals are also included in your statistics.

[Cryptomultiplier]

I think i agree with OP that more goals are scored in the last minutes because personally i have observed similar pattern in different leagues, i feel the reason why most goals come in the last minutes is because the players are already tired and wont be able to give their best in terms of defending in the last minute due to fatigue, i also feel that their is more tension in the match once players see the stoppage time, both teams will want to put in their best once the stoppage time is raised to ensure they get the best outcome from the match and that will affect their game play an result to the team either conceding or scoring.

If i was a coach i will prefer to secure my lead at early stages of the match because if you wait till the last minute and your opponent score you it will be very difficult for you to equalize due to the time constraints even if you are the better team.

We shouldn't ignore the super subs that come in final minutes to get the winning goal when the other team must have been maxed out and exhausted, but I think even the bookmakers know this and includes it into their live odds.
So final minutes betting doesn't do much to yield a +EV by itself if we should talk about it.

[Mayor of ogba]

in some matches, when placing live bets, there are bets where you predict the period in which the next goal will be scored. do you think this can be exploited in terms of betting?

I don't think that your discovery can be exploited in terms of betting because the bookmarkers are also aware that more goals are being scored in the final minutes in La Liga, and when they will be allocating odds for a period in which the next goal will be scored, they will allocate small odds since they know that there's a likelihood for it to happen, and the odds won't be reasonable for gamblers to take a risk to place a bet in the period when the next goal will be scored.

[Ryu_Ar1]

the minutes shown here as 41-50 and 81-90 include stoppage time, but even when we calculate the average, we still see that significantly more goals are scored in the final minutes compared to the game as a whole.

in some matches, when placing live bets, there are bets where you predict the period in which the next goal will be scored. do you think this can be exploited in terms of betting?

Crucial times are sometimes difficult to guess because in the 80 minutes until the match ends sometimes the intensity of the game becomes erratic and this is caused by several things such as the team's insistence on improving the attack scheme (happens because usually they still don't get a victory or catch up), the focus of the players who start to lose fatigue after playing long enough and the time that feels a little slower which makes the concentration just disappear.

We can still take advantage of this as an opportunity in betting especially in some sites there are always live betting futures such as 1 minute, 5 minutes even 10 minutes what will happen but opportunities like this do not become certain and the risk can be much greater.
Not without reason because in this case we will find it difficult to determine the rhythm because even though there are many goals created in the final minute but that does not mean things like this always happen in every match so betting in this condition sometimes becomes much more difficult.

[moneystery]

The sportsbook has anticipated potential losses. While we might see this as a golden opportunity, the sportsbook has anticipated this and ensured that the odds are adjusted when a user attempts to place a bet on that opportunity, ensuring the odds won't be detrimental to them.

But if you don’t believe that, you can try that strategy and see whether it works the way you expect.

[MainIbem]

Exploiting this discovery means that you'll have to bet on every game cause i don't know how you'll be able to tell the games that goals would be scored in the final minutes, can you? Also, the fact that it happened last season doesn't mean it would repeat again you'll be shocked to find out that this season statistics would change and lesser goals would be scored in the final minutes compared to the previous season.

[Silverstonez]

the minutes shown here as 41-50 and 81-90 include stoppage time, but even when we calculate the average, we still see that significantly more goals are scored in the final minutes compared to the game as a whole.

in some matches, when placing live bets, there are bets where you predict the period in which the next goal will be scored. do you think this can be exploited in terms of betting?

At least someone has finally brought this up, I have noticed it that most goals are being scored in the final minutes. This didn't only apply to La Liga, but to other football leagues. As for your question, the answer is yes but not in the way most of us hope. Those next goal 61-71 minutes or goals scored in the next 5 to 10 minutes live market can sometimes be mispriced for a few seconds, but they are generally very difficult to exploit consistently.

[Cleanshit]

Hm, I never thought about this statistic but looking at it now I guess it makes sense, even in the recent world Cup we could see goals being scored at the last 10 minutes because that's when the pressure hits most players. If you are someone who waits till the last minute to do stuffs you will understand this very well and funny enough most goals would come in the last 10 minutes of the match after playing 0 - 0 for  like 70 minutes.

This final 10 min the mostly when the pressure is highest most especially team  that are left behind and are in need of a goal. As the going gwt tougher players get tired, which most cases lead to mistakes abd gives room for attackers. So this kinds of fatigue abd pressure it a big reason why late goals do occur. But also I don’t think this statistic only is enough for a reliable betting strategy.